Spatial succession modeling of biological communities: a multi-model approach

Strong spatial correlation may exist in the spatial succession of biological communities, and the spatial succession can be mathematically described. It was confirmed by our study on spatial succession of both plant and arthropod communities along a linear transect of natural grassland. Both auto-correlation and cross-correlation analyses revealed that the succession of plant and arthropod communities exhibited a significant spatial correlation, and the spatial correlation for plant community succession was stronger than arthropod community succession. Theoretically it should be reasonable to infer a site's community composition from the last site in the linear transect. An artificial neural network for state space modeling (ANNSSM) was developed in present study. An algorithm (i.e., Importance Detection Method (IDM)) for determining the relative importance of input variables was proposed. The relative importance for plant families Gramineae, Compositae and Leguminosae, and arthropod orders Homoptera, Diptera and Orthoptera, were detected and analyzed using IDM. ANNSSM performed better than multivariate linear regression and ordinary differential equation, while ordinary differential equation exhibited the worst performance in the simulation and prediction of spatial succession of biological communities. A state transition probability model (STPM) was proposed to simulate the state transition process of biological communities. STPM performed better than multinomial logistic regression in the state transition modeling. We suggested a novel multi-model framework, i.e., the joint use of ANNSSM and STPM, to predict the spatial succession of biological communities. In this framework, ANNSSM and STPM can be separately used to simulate the continuous and discrete dynamics.     

Quantifying landscape pattern and connectivity in a Mediterranean coastal settlement: the case of the Urla district,Turkey

This study was aimed at analyzing and interpreting changes in landscape pattern and connectivity in the Urla district, Turkey using core landscape metrics based on a 42-year data derived from 1963 CORONA and 2005 ASTER satellite images and ten 1/25,000 topographical maps (1963–2005). The district represents a distinctive example of re-emerged suburbanization in the Izmir metropolitan area. In order to explore landscape characteristics of the study area, nine landscape composition and configuration metrics were chosen as follows: class area, percentage of landscape, number of patches, patch density, largest patch index, landscape shape index, mean patch size, perimeter area fractal dimension, and connectance index. The landscape configurations in the Urla district changed significantly by 2005 in that the process of (sub-)urbanization in the study area evolved from a rural, monocentric urban typology to a more suburban, polycentric morphology. Agricultural, maquis-phrygana, and forest areas decreased, while the built-up, olive plantation and phrygana areas increased. There was nearly a fivefold increase in the built-up areas during the study period, and the connectivity of the natural landscape declined. To prevent further fragmentation, it is important to keep the existing natural land cover types and agricultural areas intact. More importantly, a sustainable development scenario is required that contains a green infrastructure, or an ecological network planning for conservation and rehabilitation of the vital natural resources in the study area.     

Nematode community structure in the vicinity of a metallurgical factory

Soil nematode communities (taxa composition, trophic structure, ecological indices) in the area of metallurgical factory (Oravské ferozliatinárske závody) in ?iroká, Northern Slovakia were investigated in 2009. The factory belongs to main sources of emissions originated by ferroalloy production in this region. Four sites (meadows) were selected in a downwind direction from the factory: site A was located 0.85 km far from the factory, and the other sites were maintained in approximately 2-km intervals from each other. Chemical analysis of soil samples showed low concentrations of heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), with all values being under Slovak limit concentrations of heavy metals in soils. Only the Cd content in the soil sample from site A slightly exceeded the allowable threshold, but it was decreasing with the distance from the factory, similarly as remaining metals except Cr, with slightly increasing trend of concentration. Within 64 identified nematode genera, the Helicotylenchus, Paratylenchus, Pratylenchus, Acrobeloides, Cephalobus and Rhabditis were most common and eudominant. This was clearly reflected on the trophic structure of nematode communities, where plant feeding nematodes and bacteriovorous prevailed. Significant negative correlation (P?相似文献   

Quantifying The Rainfall-Water Level Fluctuation Process in a Geologically Complex Lake Catchment

Abstact Simulating hydrologic processes in geologically complex environments is a difficult scientific task since it incorporates high level of uncertainty. Many studies have attempted to accurately quantify the rainfall-water level elevation relationship in freshwater bodies so as to predict flooding and drought events. For this purpose several types of models have been implemented including distributed, black box and conceptual models that often provide efficient results, depending on the availability of reliable data as well as on the level of understanding of the system. Nevertheless, in the particular effort, three different models have been used to describe the relationship between rainfall and water level elevation in Trichonis Lake during the period 1951–1997. A Transfer Function model, a Dynamic Linear Regression and a physically based model, consisting of the lake's water budget equation, its Digital Bathymetric Model and GIS algorithms. These models have been tested to assess their efficiency and applicability in a karstic environment and the aim of the study was to find the best modeling option for developing sustainable water management plans and establishing a flooding/drought warning system in the particular lake catchment. The results indicated that in areas with geologically complex conditions, simple, physically-based models operate better than mechanistic models which usually cannot describe adequately the complexity of the system     

Water quality decline in coastal aquifers under anthropic pressure: the case of a suburban area of Dakar (Senegal)

In recent years, the unregulated increase of the population in coastal areas of developing countries has become source of concern for both water supply and quality control. In the region of Dakar (Senegal), approximately 80% of water resources come from groundwater reservoirs, which are increasingly affected by anthropogenic pressures. The identification of the main sources of pollution, and thus the aquifer vulnerability, is essential to provide a sound basis for the implementation of long-term geochemically based water management plans in this sub-Saharan area. With this aim, a hydrochemical and isotopic survey on 26 wells was performed in the so-called Peninsula of Cap-Vert. Results show that seawater intrusion represents the main process affecting groundwater chemical characteristics. Nitrates often exceed the World Health Organization drinking water limits: stable isotopes of dissolved nitrate ( $\updelta ^{15}$ N and $\updelta ^{18}$ O) indicate urban sewage and fertilizers as a major source of contamination. Results depict a complex situation in which groundwater is affected by direct and indirect infiltration of effluents, mixing with seawater and freshening processes from below. Besides the relevance of the investigation at a regional level, it represents a basis for decision-making processes in an integrated water resources management and in the planning of similar monitoring strategies for other urban coastal regions.     

Bark removal and population structure of Taxus wallichiana Zucc. in a temperate mixed conifer forest of western Himalaya

Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) represents one of the most threatened medicinal tree species of the Himalayan region. Heavy exploitation of its bark and leaves for taxol® has resulted in decline in its population. Generating quantitative information on Himalayan yew has therefore been stressed. The present paper provides information on the population and bark removal of Himalayan yew from one of the interior areas of Himalaya. Total count and quadrat method were deployed to generate quantitative information on its population while bark removal was estimated based on depth and extent of bark removed. After analyzing the existing information and the results of the study, a rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) of the species was carried out. Taxus reported a density of 72 individuals/ha and was present as an under canopy of Picea smithiana. Complete stripping of bark was observed in 11 % of the Taxus population which amounted to ca. 18,152.86 cm³ of bark removed. The age class distribution showed complete absence of seedlings and saplings. RVA scores also reported higher values (26) thereby pointing toward the high vulnerability of this species. Across its entire distributional range, Taxus population is under severe pressure. It is high time when few patches of Taxus are demarcated as Medicinal Plant Conservation Areas, and detailed studies on its autecology are initiated.     

Quantifying health risk reductions from implementation of a passive net alkaline wetland

The potential effectiveness of a constructed passive net alkaline wetland in reducing human health risks from heavy metals in surface waters was evaluated by using a multimedia model. Scenarios were developed using information available from site reports, state, federal, and standard engineering sources. The scenarios replicated observed heavy metal concentrations in the waters of a volunteer wetland and estimated the concentrations after implementation of a constructed passive net alkaline wetland. The greatest reductions in risks are expected to occur soon after construction, with children benefiting more than adults.     

Assessing cancer incidence in a small community

Many small communities are concerned about health effects from environmental pollutants. One such community, Orwell, in Oswego County, New York, was investigated to determine if the level of cancer was significantly high in comparison to the county and the state. A pilot health study was administered among residents living in a defined area. Results of the survey demonstrated that cancer incidence was higher than both Oswego County and New York State, while cancer mortality was higher for men and lower for woman. A closer examination of the data showed that the way in which health surveys are usually analyzed may not be appropriate for small communities. In particular, some parametric statistics, such as chi-square analysis, might show significant differences between populations when standardized incidence and mortality rates are derived from small samples, yet standard deviations calculated from these data are so large as to cast doubt on the analysis. Researchers have discussed this problem theoretically, but empirical studies illustrating the difficulties have not heretofore appeared in the published literature. For health studies in small communities, greater consideration should be given to risk ratios and the implications of standard deviations.     

Diameter distribution of some subalpine fir stands in central British Columbia

Diameter distributions of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) in central British Columbia were investigated. Nine fire-originated, old-growth stands were selected with maximum tree age at breast height of about 300 years. The stage of stand development was determined by testing how well a negative exponential function matched the cumulative diameter distribution. As a comparison, the negative exponential function was also fitted on the frequency distributions. Eight out of the nine distributions showed fewer medium-sized trees and more large-sized trees than predicted by the negative exponential function. One stand showed relatively good fit, but failed the lack-of-fit test. Although the diameter distributions are close to a balanced stage, stand establishment patterns are still evident 300 years after disturbance.     

Studies on the causes of forest decline in Nanshan,Chongqing

Nanshan is located in the south suburb of Chongqing, Sichuan province in China. It is about 10 km from the city of Chongqing. There are about 2000 ha of forest, mainly Masson pines (Pinus massoniana Lamb) which have exhibited decline since the beginning of the 1980s. Surveys of stands estimated that 85% of Masson pines are injured. Symptomology of Masson pines includes tip necrosis of needles, thin crown, reduced needle length, premature abscission, branch dieback, reduced radial growth. The foliage of broadleaf treesRobinia pseudoacacia L,Quercus dentata Thunb,Eucalyptus robusta Sm,Erythrina variegata var. orientalis (L) Merr,Faulownia fortunei (Seem) Hemsl,Rosa chinensis Jacq, also displayed necrotic lesions, both marginal and interveinous, most are brown or bleached. Foliage symptoms are similar to that produced in laboratory fumigation experiments with gaseous air pollutants SO₂ or HF. The foliage injury intensity is related to the distance from the city. Forest in some localities furthest from the city exhibit approximately normal growth.Three monitoring sites had been selected in Nanshan forest area. At two sites pine trees were severely damaged. At another site they showed little damage. Atmospheric SO₂ and fluoride concentrations had been examined. The average value of SO₂ and fluoride concentrations at the two former sites were much higher than that at the latter site. The injury intensity was consistent with an increase in the concentrations of SO₂ and fluoride. The sulphur and fluoride contents of tree leaves were also monitored. Sulphur contents of pine needles at the two former sites were generally more than that at the latter. The same tendency is observed in broadleaf trees. Higher levels of fluoride had been found in foliage of injured trees compared to unijured trees.Chongqing is also an acid rain region. The yearly average pH value of precipitation approaches to 4.0, and the frequency 100%. The pH values of acid rain at the three sites in Nanshan region are 4.17, 4.20, and 4.38 respectively. The difference is not significant. Also no significant difference in soil pH among the three sites is observed. It is suggested that acid rain and the acidification of soil are not implicated in the decline of Masson pines in Nanshan region.     

Natural regeneration of the herbaceous community in a semiarid region in Northeastern Brazil

This study aimed to describe and compare the interannual changes in the diversity and population structure of herbaceous plants in an anthropogenic area that has been regenerating for 15 years and to identify the similarities and differences in the biological attributes of the community compared with the characteristics of a regenerating conserved area. In total, 105 plots measuring 1 m² were established. In each plot, the herbaceous plants were identified, and their height and stem diameter were measured for two consecutive years. The herbaceous flora of the anthropogenic area was represented by 86 species in 70 genera and 27 families, and there were no significant differences in the average richness between years. The conserved area was represented by 71 species in 63 genera and 35 families, and there was a significant difference in the total richness between areas and between years, except when comparing the richness between the conserved area and the anthropogenic area during the second year. Considering both the anthropogenic and conserved areas, 123 herbaceous species were listed, and the similarity between areas was 60 %. For the anthropogenic area, the floristic similarity between years was 95 %, and in the fragment of the conserved area, the similarity was 74 %. The diversity and density were significantly different between years and between areas. Given these results, this study suggests that 15 years of natural regeneration for the caatinga is not sufficient to reestablish its native flora with respect to its herbaceous component.     

Assessing the zooplankton community and environmental factors in a Mediterranean wetland

Mediterranean wetlands represent unique repositories of biodiversity, but these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by human-induced habitat loss. Seventy percent of Greek wetlands (ponds, mires, marshes, etc.) have been lost in the past 80 years due to human intervention. In Greece habitat types of mires, listed in Directive 92/43/EEC, have been recorded in a few locations, one of the most important is Kalodiki wetland. Eutrophication key elements were determined at four sampling stations throughout 1 year in order to monitor the trophic conditions. Moreover, the zooplankton community was described as biological element relevant in the assessment of the ecological status of Kalodiki wetland. Kalodiki wetland exhibits nutrient concentrations corresponding to eutrophic conditions while according to chlorophyll-a values it is classified between mesotrophic and eutrophic status depending mostly on the sampling period. As concerning zooplankton community, it appears poor in species and dominated by small-sized organisms, which is generally typical of eutrophic, disturbed systems. Differences among zooplankton assemblages over seasons as well as among sampling sites highlight the role of both abiotic and biotic factors.     

Quantifying impact reduction due to avoidance,minimization and restoration for a natural gas pipeline in the Peruvian Andes

We present monitoring methods and quantitative biodiversity data to document components of the mitigation hierarchy. We estimated avoidance, minimization, restoration and impact reduction in quality hectares for the 25 m wide right of way of a 408 km natural gas buried pipeline that crosses 14 Ecological Landscape Units (ELUs) in the tropical Andes of Peru. We found that applying the mitigation hierarchy as part of a comprehensive biodiversity action plan substantially reduced impacts on biodiversity in all habitats studied. Avoidance and right of way minimization contributed to significant impact reduction. We quantified impact reduction during construction and operation on the right of way of the pipeline over a five-year period and found that restoration was the greatest contributor to reducing impacts. We documented that most ELUs have a positive restoration trajectory. We also documented how monitoring over large scale spatial scales, in combination with site-specific monitoring, generated data for management to determine restoration priorities and impact mitigation. A biodiversity action plan that incorporated the mitigation hierarchy and a science-based biodiversity monitoring and assessment program contributed to biodiversity management of the project and played an important role in minimizing and managing impacts.     

Zoobenthic variability associated with a flood and drought in the Hawkesbury estuary,New South Wales: Some consequences for environmental monitoring

Changes in the Hawkesbury zoobenthos associated with a major flood and drought are described and comparisons made in the patterns of change among estuarine reaches and among sites within reaches. The consequences for environmental monitoring and management are discussed. Replicate grab samples were taken from four sites in each of the lower, middle and upper reaches. Reductions in the mean number of species per grab (S) following the flood were significant only in the lower reaches and at one site in the middle reaches. Increases in S accompanied the drought in all reaches but intra-reach variation in temporal patterns occurred in both S and in the most abundant species found. Thus, major weather events are associated with temporal changes whose patterns differ on both small and large spatial scales. Consequently, the results from fixed-factor sampling designs, which are widely used, may be unrepresentative of other areas. Unfortunately, the alternative approach of stratified random sampling will probably be both prohibitively expensive and difficult to implement in the complex estuarine benthic habitat. Further, short-term studies will probably be grossly unrepresentative of natural temporal variation. Attempts to reduce expenses by using only one or two abundant species as characterising communities or as indicators of physicochemical conditions may be unreliable because of variation in both time and space in dominant species and the lack of pollution-response knowledge for local species.     

Site characteristics,growth and nutrition of natural red pine stands in newfoundland

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) is rare (< 15 000 mature trees) in Newfoundland and is known from only 22 locations in the central region. Red pine occupies 3 major site types in Newfoundland: 1) red pine on medium-textured sands (RP1), 2) red pine on coarse-textured glaciofluvial deposits (RP2), and 3) red pine on Folisols over bedrock (RP3). The succession of red pine site types after cutting is from red pine to Kalmia-black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) for RP1, and to Cladonia-Kalmia-black spruce for types RP2 and RP3. Succession after fire is usually to the pre-fire type, but this depends on the severity of the fire.Although occupying a relatively poor site, red pine at 60–70 years reaches heights in excess of 18 m, dbh in excess of 40 cm, and individual tree volumes greater than 1 m³ were recorded in 75 stemanalyzed fire-killed trees. Black spruce on that same site produces less than one-third that volume in 60 years. Merchantable volume of 140–280 m³ ha^-1 were recorded i.e., Canada Land Inventory (CLI) forest capability class 5 and class 4 ratings. This raises the CLI rating two capability classes if red pine were occupying these poor quality sites over black spruce. In terms of nutrition, even the best growing red pine are nitrogen (N) deficient as shown by foliar analysis. All natural stands have foliar N concentrations below 1.3% which is the critically low level shown in the literature. Immediately after fire, foliar concentrations reach this level but are usually about 1% or less. Most other nutrients are low but are within the generally reported adequate levels in testing for P, K, Ca and Mg.Fire influences soil nutrient availability as pH increases in the RP1 type. Burning temperature also affects soil pH and the understory vegetation. The RP2 type loses more N in hotter burns on this site type and more N is tied up in these ortstein hardpan soils. The pattern of regeneration following wildfire is related to slope, density, age and species mixture of the stand as well as the thickness and composition of the duff layer.     

Industrial air pollution by metals monitored by a synthetic fabric: A case study of a community

To supplement an epidemiological investigation into respiratory cancer, a synthetic fabric called tak was used to study the deposition of atmospheric metal pollution within the town of Armadale, central Scotland. Pollution maps showed high concentrations of several metals in areas close to the town's steel foundry and in a second area in the north of the town. Through further statistical analyses, those metals were identified which had probably been emitted by the foundry, and temporal variations in metal deposition patterns were examined. The advantages of this method of low technology sampling, which include the low cost and a high density of sampling sites, are described.     

Quantifying the sensitivity of ephemeral streams to land disturbance activities in arid ecosystems at the watershed scale

Large areas of public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and located in arid regions of the southwestern United States are being considered for the development of utility-scale solar energy facilities. Land-disturbing activities in these desert, alluvium-filled valleys have the potential to adversely affect the hydrologic and ecologic functions of ephemeral streams. Regulation and management of ephemeral streams typically falls under a spectrum of federal, state, and local programs, but scientifically based guidelines for protecting ephemeral streams with respect to land-development activities are largely nonexistent. This study developed an assessment approach for quantifying the sensitivity to land disturbance of ephemeral stream reaches located in proposed solar energy zones (SEZs). The ephemeral stream assessment approach used publicly-available geospatial data on hydrology, topography, surficial geology, and soil characteristics, as well as high-resolution aerial imagery. These datasets were used to inform a professional judgment-based score index of potential land disturbance impacts on selected critical functions of ephemeral streams, including flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitat value, and groundwater recharge. The total sensitivity scores (sum of scores for the critical stream functions of flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitats, and groundwater recharge) were used to identify highly sensitive stream reaches to inform decisions on developable areas in SEZs. Total sensitivity scores typically reflected the scores of the individual stream functions; some exceptions pertain to groundwater recharge and ecological habitats. The primary limitations of this assessment approach were the lack of high-resolution identification of ephemeral stream channels in the existing National Hydrography Dataset, and the lack of mechanistic processes describing potential impacts on ephemeral stream functions at the watershed scale. The primary strength of this assessment approach is that it allows watershed-scale planning for low-impact development in arid ecosystems; the qualitative scoring of potential impacts can also be adjusted to accommodate new geospatial data, and to allow for expert and stakeholder input into decisions regarding the identification and potential avoidance of highly sensitive stream reaches.     

Changes of the phytoplankton community as symptoms of deterioration of water quality in a shallow lake

Covering more than 60% of the lake surface, macrophytes determined the taxonomic composition of phytoplankton. We have found numerous indications of ecological deterioration and an increased trophic level year to year: an increased total number of taxa; a significantly increased number of species of Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyceae and Cyanoprokaryota; a decreased number of Chrysophyceae; increased Nygaard index, and high diversity and variability of phytoplankton functional groups. Within 2 years (2002 and 2003) algal biomass doubled: from 3.616 to 7.968 mg l^?1. An increased contribution of Chlorococcales and Cyanoprokaryota indicates progressive eutrophication of the lake. The average size of planktonic algae increased, particularly Cyanoprokaryota, where small-celled decreased dramatically and were replaced by large colonies. Cyanoprokaryota remained the dominant group of phytoplankton after 10 years, and the ecosystem of the lake remained in the turbid state. This group of algae had the average biomass 9.734 mg l^?1, which constituted almost 92% of the total biomass.