Estimating uncertainties in the life cycle assessment of composting household biowaste and urban green waste in Germany

Life cycle assessment (LCA) of waste treatment processes is often associated with considerable uncertainties. The aim of this study is to estimate the total uncertainty in the modelled composting system and the influence of material and process parameters on the uncertainty. Four composting combinations with fresh (FC) and mature substrate compost (MSC) from partially enclosed (PEC) and open composting (OC) were investigated. Perturbation analysis was used to determine the effect of parameters on the result and Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the total uncertainty. This study showed that the production of MSC using PEC had the lowest overall impacts across all impact categories except ozone depletion. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed that comparing composting options was challenging. The sensitivity ratios obtained from the perturbation analysis showed that the process parameter percentage of carbon fraction degraded was the most influential for FC. In MSC, the moisture content in the input material and the substitution factor used for peat were the most influential. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated the overall uncertainty of the model and its relevance when comparing results between combinations. The perturbation analysis identified the parameters that required more accurate data to reduce the uncertainty in the model.

Graphical abstract

     

Fuzzy control for the process of heat removal during the composting of agricultural waste

This paper shows the concept and preliminary test of the composting process control with fuzzy logic. The temperature in the compost heap during the process is greater than 80 °C. Because wastes of agricultural origin do not require hygienization, part of the heat can by retrieved, which lowers the temperature in the heap to 55 °C (this is also the optimum temperature for the composting process). The heat retrieved from a compost heap can be used in another place. Therefore, a composting system was developed in which the aeration rate and heat removal rate can be adjusted. There are two goals of this system: maximising the amount of the heat retrieved from the heap and minimising the duration of the composting process. In the preliminary experiments freshly mown grass with 50 % cabbage was used as the compost material. The results show that the fuzzy logic control system functions correctly with respect to calculations. During the study, a median 90 MJ of heat was produced by the bioreactor; the thermophilic phase was shortened to 12 days. There was also a reduction in the emission of ammonia.     

Application of a simplified mathematical model to estimate the effect of forced aeration on composting in a closed system

The aeration rate is a key process control parameter in the forced aeration composting process because it greatly affects different physico-chemical parameters such as temperature and moisture content, and indirectly influences the biological degradation rate. In this study, the effect of a constant airflow rate on vertical temperature distribution and organic waste degradation in the composting mass is analyzed using a previously developed mathematical model of the composting process. The model was applied to analyze the effect of two different ambient conditions, namely, hot and cold ambient condition, and four different airflow rates such as 1.5, 3.0, 4.5, and 6.0m(3)m(-2)h(-1), respectively, on the temperature distribution and organic waste degradation in a given waste mixture. The typical waste mixture had 59% moisture content and 96% volatile solids, however, the proportion could be varied as required. The results suggested that the model could be efficiently used to analyze composting under variable ambient and operating conditions. A lower airflow rate around 1.5-3.0m(3)m(-2)h(-1) was found to be suitable for cold ambient condition while a higher airflow rate around 4.5-6.0m(3)m(-2)h(-1) was preferable for hot ambient condition. The engineered way of application of this model is flexible which allows the changes in any input parameters within the realistic range. It can be widely used for conceptual process design, studies on the effect of ambient conditions, optimization studies in existing composting plants, and process control.     

Aerobic composting of waste activated sludge: kinetic analysis for microbiological reaction and oxygen consumption

In order to examine the optimal design and operating parameters, kinetics for microbiological reaction and oxygen consumption in composting of waste activated sludge were quantitatively examined. A series of experiments was conducted to discuss the optimal operating parameters for aerobic composting of waste activated sludge obtained from Kawagoe City Wastewater Treatment Plant (Saitama, Japan) using 4 and 20 L laboratory scale bioreactors. Aeration rate, compositions of compost mixture and height of compost pile were investigated as main design and operating parameters. The optimal aerobic composting of waste activated sludge was found at the aeration rate of 2.0 L/min/kg (initial composting mixture dry weight). A compost pile up to 0.5 m could be operated effectively. A simple model for composting of waste activated sludge in a composting reactor was developed by assuming that a solid phase of compost mixture is well mixed and the kinetics for microbiological reaction is represented by a Monod-type equation. The model predictions could fit the experimental data for decomposition of waste activated sludge with an average deviation of 2.14%. Oxygen consumption during composting was also examined using a simplified model in which the oxygen consumption was represented by a Monod-type equation and the axial distribution of oxygen concentration in the composting pile was described by a plug-flow model. The predictions could satisfactorily simulate the experiment results for the average maximum oxygen consumption rate during aerobic composting with an average deviation of 7.4%.     

Composting of vegetable waste.

The effects of the aeration, seeding, and agitation on the composting of vegetable waste were studied in a laboratory-scale reactor. Experimental results showed that the final product at the end of a 4-day composting period met multiple maturity indices suggested by many researchers. The evolution of carbon dioxide during the composting process could be modelled with a modified Gompertz equation that described the bacteria growth successfully. Multivariate regression analysis was used to study the effects of operating parameters on the carbon conversion. The response surface contour plots were constructed using the regression equation for the examination of the dependence of carbon conversion on operating parameters. The maximum carbon conversion of 14.54% was obtained when the percentage of seeding was set at 14.5%, the air suction rate was set at 2.6 L kg(-1) dry-solid min(-1), and the agitator operated half of the time, alternating on and off for every 5 min. Future work will focus on the application of the data and the experience gained in this work to composters of pilot and semi-commercial scales.     

Modelling of organic matter dynamics during the composting process

Composting urban organic wastes enables the recycling of their organic fraction in agriculture. The objective of this new composting model was to gain a clearer understanding of the dynamics of organic fractions during composting and to predict the final quality of composts. Organic matter was split into different compartments according to its degradability. The nature and size of these compartments were studied using a biochemical fractionation method. The evolution of each compartment and the microbial biomass were simulated, as was the total organic carbon loss corresponding to organic carbon mineralisation into CO₂. Twelve composting experiments from different feedstocks were used to calibrate and validate our model. We obtained a unique set of estimated parameters. Good agreement was achieved between the simulated and experimental results that described the evolution of different organic fractions, with the exception of some compost because of a poor simulation of the cellulosic and soluble pools. The degradation rate of the cellulosic fraction appeared to be highly variable and dependent on the origin of the feedstocks. The initial soluble fraction could contain some degradable and recalcitrant elements that are not easily accessible experimentally.     

Modeling Afforestation and the Underlying Uncertainties

A dynamic model of the carbon budget of an oak forest ecosystem that takes into account forest stand age was developed. A numerical experiment was designed to simulate the afforestation process, and a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine how parameter uncertainties and environmental variability influence the result. It was found that while the total amount of carbon stored in the ecosystem increases from 1.9 kg C/m² to 4.4 kg C/m² over the following 20 years, the relative standard deviation increases from 9 to 21%. The contribution of varying climate and carbon dioxide parameters to total uncertainty is substantial; for example, the standard deviation at the 10th modeling year for phytomass doubles and the uncertainties of the soil pool and total accumulated carbon increase by a factor of nearly 1.4, while the uncertainty of the litter pool stays almost at the same level.     

Study of the organic matter evolution during municipal solid waste composting aimed at identifying suitable parameters for the evaluation of compost maturity

In this work the composting process of municipal solid wastes was studied in order to characterize the transformations of organic matter, particularly humic acid (HA). A composting process, lasting three months, was monitored by chemical methods; the following parameters were measured: water-soluble carbon concentration (WSC) and humic substances content (humic and fulvic acid (FA)). The effects of humification on the molecular structure of humic acid (HA) were also evaluated by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) and (13)C NMR spectroscopy. WSC concentration rapidly increased reaching a maximum at day-14 of the composting process and then declined. The humic and fulvic acid content (HA and FA, respectively) slightly increased during the process. The FT-IR and (13)C NMR spectra of HA indicate a high rate of change in structure during composting. The groups containing aromatic and carboxylic C increased, while polysaccharides and other aliphatic structures degraded during composting, resulting in HA structures of higher aromaticity. Therefore, spectrometric measurements could provide information significantly correlated to conventional chemical parameters of compost maturity.     

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.     

Composting of solid waste during extended human travel and habitation in space

As part of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) for long term human travel and habitation in space, the resources in solid waste may be regenerated through the microbiological process of composting. This would release CO₂ for photosynthetic uptake while transforming the waste to a smaller volume and weight of stabilized and sanitized compost. To continue the biodegradation and complete the cycling of nutrients, the compost would be incorporated into soil used in growing food crops. To minimize the weight and volume of the composting facility, the rate of the transformation should be maximized. This is realizable through ventilative removal of heat in reference to a biologically favorable temperature ceiling, and maintenance of a thoroughly oxygenated state. A preliminary design for a composting system for use in a spacecraft and/or permanent space station is proposed.     

Inexact fuzzy-stochastic constraint-softened programming – A case study for waste management

In this study, an inexact fuzzy-stochastic constraint-softened programming method is developed for municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. The developed method can deal with multiple uncertainties presented in terms of fuzzy sets, interval values and random variables. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the system constraints are allowed. This is realized through introduction of violation variables to soften system constraints, such that the model’s decision space can be expanded under demanding conditions. This can help generate a range of decision alternatives under various conditions, allowing in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective, satisfaction degree, and constraint-violation risk. The developed method is applied to a case study of planning a MSW management system. The uncertain and dynamic information can be incorporated within a multi-layer scenario tree; revised decisions are permitted in each time period based on the realized values of uncertain events. Solutions associated with different satisfaction degree levels have been generated, corresponding to different constraint-violation risks. They are useful for supporting decisions of waste flow allocation and system-capacity expansion within a multistage context.     

A model to estimate the methane generation rate constant in sanitary landfills using fuzzy synthetic evaluation.

This paper presents a model using fuzzy synthetic evaluation to estimate the methane generation rate constant, k, for landfills. Four major parameters, precipitation, temperature, waste composition and landfill depth were used as inputs to the model. Whereas, these parameters are known to impact the methane generation, mathematical relationships between them and the methane generation rate constant required to estimate methane generation in landfills, are not known. In addition, the spatial variations of k within a landfill combined with the necessity of site-specific information to estimate its value, makes k one of the most elusive parameters in the accurate prediction of methane generation within a landfill. In this paper, a fuzzy technique was used to develop a model to predict the methane generation rate constant. The model was calibrated and verified using k values from 42 locations. Data from 10 sites were used to calibrate the model and the rest were used to verify it. The model predictions are reasonably accurate. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the effect of uncertainty in the input parameters on the generation rate constant.     

A full-scale study of treatment of pig slurry by composting: kinetic changes in chemical and microbial properties

Since the indiscriminate disposal of pig slurry can cause not only air pollution and bad odours but also nutrient pollution of ground waters and superficial waters, composting is sometimes used as one environmentally acceptable method for recycling pig manure. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of composting pig slurry on its sanitation (evaluated by ecotoxicity assays and pathogen content determination), as well as to determine the effect of a carbon-rich bulking agent (wood shavings, WS) and the starting C/N ratio on the changes undergone by different chemical (volatile organic matter, C and N fractions) and microbiological (microbial biomass C, ATP, dehydrogenase activity, urease, protease, phosphatase, and beta-glucosidase activities) parameters during composting. Pig slurry mixed with bulking agent (P+WS) and the solid faction separated from it, both with (PSF+WS) and without bulking agent (PSF), were composted for 13 weeks. Samples for analysis were taken from composting piles at the start of the process and at 3, 6, 9, and 13 weeks after the beginning of composting. The total organic carbon, water soluble C and ammonium content decreased with composting, while Kjeldahl N and nitrate content increased. The nitrification process in the PSF+WS pile was more intense than in the PSF or P+WS composting piles. The pathogen content decreased with composting, as did phytotoxic compounds, while the germination index increased with compost age. Piles with bulking agent showed higher values of basal respiration, microbial biomass carbon, ATP and hydrolase activities during the composting process than piles without bulking agent.     

Prediction of temperature and thermal inertia effect in the maturation stage and stockpiling of a large composting mass

A macroscopic non-steady state energy balance was developed and solved for a composting pile of source-selected organic fraction of municipal solid waste during the maturation stage (13,500 kg of compost). Simulated temperature profiles correlated well with temperature experimental data (ranging from 50 to 70 degrees C) obtained during the maturation process for more than 50 days at full scale. Thermal inertia effect usually found in composting plants and associated to the stockpiling of large composting masses could be predicted by means of this simplified energy balance, which takes into account terms of convective, conductive and radiation heat dissipation. Heat losses in a large composting mass are not significant due to the similar temperatures found at the surroundings and at the surface of the pile (ranging from 15 to 40 degrees C). In contrast, thermophilic temperature in the core of the pile was maintained during the whole maturation process. Heat generation was estimated with the static respiration index, a parameter that is typically used to monitor the biological activity and stability of composting processes. In this study, the static respiration index is presented as a parameter to estimate the metabolic heat that can be generated according to the biodegradable organic matter content of a compost sample, which can be useful in predicting the temperature of the composting process.     

Assessment of compost quality for its environmentally safe use by means of an ecotoxicological test on a soil organism

A research project was carried out to evaluate toxicological effects of compost addition to agricultural soil using the earthworm Eisenia foetida (Annellida) as a representative organism of the soil fauna. Moreover, the correlation between compost biochemical stabilization and toxicity at different phases of the composting process was assessed. Samples were collected from three composting plants at three different maturation levels (beginning of the composting process, intermediate compost after bio-oxidation, and mature refined compost). Two tests were performed: a standard chronic solid-phase test and an acute solid-phase test (developed originally by the authors). In the first test, the measured end-points were mortality, growth and reproduction; while in the second test earthworms’ behavior was evaluated. The chosen compost concentrations in soil ranged from 2.5 to 100 %, with the aim of obtaining the toxicological parameters (LC50) and to mimic real agricultural dosages for the lower concentrations. Results indicated an increase in compost toxicity with greater compost concentrations; in particular, agricultural compost dosage below 10 % showed no toxicity. Moreover, toxicity did not decrease during composting; intermediate compost showed the highest LC50 values. As a consequence, no correlation was ascertained between the results of ecotoxicological analysis and waste biochemical stability parameters during the composting process.     

Separate collection of the biodegradable fraction of MSW: an economic assessment

There is little experience in Portugal with the separate collection of the biodegradable fraction of municipal solid waste (MSW). Therefore, it is relevant to evaluate how this process could economically affect the actual practices of MSW collection in small municipalities. This article simulates the costs of collection by means of a fixed container system and a transfer station, using values from a municipality with a population of 28,000 inhabitants. The main goal of this exercise is to compare the economic effects of three alternative scenarios: (i) the traditional, unsorted collection; (ii) the separate collection of whole biowaste; and (iii) the separate collection of biowaste generated in the major urban communities, while setting aside the other biowaste for home composting. The input data are from 2001, and include waste quantities, travel times, work crew composition, crew time shifts, vehicles, and containers. Calculations of the proposed mathematical method were carried out using the Microsoft Excel software. This study concludes that the global cost for separate collection of biowaste (alternative ii) need not necessarily be higher than the corresponding cost of the traditional, unsorted method of collection (alternative i). Furthermore, the global cost for collection with separated biowaste and home composting (alternative iii) could also be lower than the corresponding cost of the traditional, unsorted method of collection.     

Fuzzy multicriteria disposal method and site selection for municipal solid waste

The use of fuzzy multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in solid waste management has the advantage of rendering subjective and implicit decision making more objective and analytical, with its ability to accommodate both quantitative and qualitative data. In this paper a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology is proposed for the selection of appropriate disposal method and site for municipal solid waste (MSW). Our method is superior to existing methods since it has capability of representing vague qualitative data and presenting all possible results with different degrees of membership. In the first stage of the proposed methodology, a set of criteria of cost, reliability, feasibility, pollution and emission levels, waste and energy recovery is optimized to determine the best MSW disposal method. Landfilling, composting, conventional incineration, and refuse-derived fuel (RDF) combustion are the alternatives considered. The weights of the selection criteria are determined by fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). It is found that RDF combustion is the best disposal method alternative for Istanbul. In the second stage, the same methodology is used to determine the optimum RDF combustion plant location using adjacent land use, climate, road access and cost as the criteria. The results of this study illustrate the importance of the weights on the various factors in deciding the optimized location, with the best site located in Çatalca. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to monitor how sensitive our model is to changes in the various criteria weights.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from biogenic waste treatment: options and uncertainty

A simplified life cycle assessment was conducted to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy production from each component of biogenic waste treated in an open dumping site, and by composting, anaerobic digestion, and incineration employed with additional options. The impact of uncertainties and sensitivities of the parameters in the treatment methods were investigated. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to identify the most sensitive parameters, and we discussed the relationship between uncertainty and sensitivity. Our results revealed that the moisture content of food waste and the biomass-derived carbon and methane concentration of the landfill gas of biogenic waste subjected to open dumping are the most sensitive parameters across all the treatment methods. The net GHG emissions from food waste treated in an open dumping site ranged over ten times (0.30 ? 3.67 Gg CO₂ eq/Gg). In addition, by employing additional options for the open dumping site, including soil cover, a landfill gas collection system, shifting to a semi-aerobic condition, and energy conservation by using a gas engine, we found that the net GHG emissions could be reduced by 10, 27.9, 37.4 %, and up to 56.7 %, respectively. Shifting to a semi-aerobic system is the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions, followed by landfill gas collection.     

Comparison of first-order-decay modeled and actual field measured municipal solid waste landfill methane data

The first-order decay (FOD) model is widely used to estimate landfill gas generation for emissions inventories, life cycle assessments, and regulation. The FOD model has inherent uncertainty due to underlying uncertainty in model parameters and a lack of opportunities to validate it with complete field-scale landfill data sets. The objectives of this paper were to estimate methane generation, fugitive methane emissions, and aggregated collection efficiency for landfills through a mass balance approach using the FOD model for gas generation coupled with literature values for cover-specific collection efficiency and methane oxidation. This study is unique and valuable because actual field data were used in comparison with modeled data. The magnitude and variation of emissions were estimated for three landfills using site-specific model parameters and gas collection data, and compared to vertical radial plume mapping emissions measurements. For the three landfills, the modeling approach slightly under-predicted measured emissions and over-estimated aggregated collection efficiency, but the two approaches yielded statistically equivalent uncertainties expressed as coefficients of variation. Sources of uncertainty include challenges in large-scale field measurement of emissions and spatial and temporal fluctuations in methane flow balance components (generated, collected, oxidized, and emitted methane). Additional publication of sets of field-scale measurement data and methane flow balance components will reduce the uncertainty in future estimates of fugitive emissions.     

Changes in the chemical and physicochemical properties of the solid fraction of cattle slurry during composting using different aeration strategies

Replacement of peat as a growing medium by a renewable material, such as an organic waste, is an issue of concern since harvesting of peat has a considerable environmental impact and, actually, it is a non-renewable resource. Cattle manure is a readily available organic waste, which means that once it goes through the composting process, it can be used as an alternative to peat, specifically, the solid fraction obtained from mechanical liquid-solid separation of cattle slurry (SF). Studies have shown it to be suitable for such uses. The purpose of this study was to detect possible changes in the physicochemical and chemical properties of SF when it is composted using different aeration strategies, with an emphasis on the changes that would make it feasible for use as a substrate. With this aim in mind, an experiment was designed with three aeration strategies that would be used during composting. The first consisted of applying air through a static method (forced ventilation). The second involved improving aeration by adding a bulking agent and a dynamic turning method. In the third strategy, aeration was carried out by turning (control). The results show that the different aeration strategies had a clear effect on the evolution of pH, electrical conductivity (EC), nitrate-N, ammonia-N and bicarbonate content. Nitrification was favored under good aeration conditions using the static composting method, probably due to the greater availability of ammonia-N that was transformed into nitrate-N. In general, the low buffering capacity allowed for a reduction of the pH during the curing stage of composting (in conjunction with low temperatures during this period), a characteristic that favors the use of this compost as a growing medium. We also conclude that measuring bicarbonate levels during composting could be used as an indicator of the possible acidification of the material and as a way of evaluating the level of material aeration.