中国植被覆盖度时空特征及其影响因素分析

植被覆盖度是衡量植被生长状况和描述生态系统环境的重要指标,以2001～2018年MODIS NDVI数据集为基础,采用混合像元二分模型,计算中国植被覆盖度(FVC),分析中国年FVC的时空变化特征,探讨FVC对气候和人类活动干扰的响应机制,以及人类活动对FVC影响的未来变化特征。结果表明:(1)中国FVC整体呈上升趋势;西北的年均FVC明显低于东南的年均FVC;除青藏高原FVC为下降趋势外,其余均呈上升趋势,且该趋势具有一定持续性。(2)各植被类型中,混交林的年均FVC最高,草原的年均FVC最低;而农作物变化率最大,混交林变化率最小,且未来将由改善转为退化趋势,其余均表现为持续性改善。(3)中国FVC与气温呈负相关、与降水呈正相关,且降水对FVC的影响强于气温,表明降水是影响FVC变化的主要因素。(4)中国人类活动对FVC的影响程度整体表现为增强趋势,未来人类活动影响力以反向持续性为主。表明未来18a中国FVC受人类活动的影响有所下降。     

西南喀斯特区域生态环境敏感性评价及其空间分布

西南喀斯特区域生态环境本身的脆弱性再加上不合理的人类活动的影响,生态环境问题突出,识别易发生生态环境问题的区域,为西南喀斯特地区生态环境保护和恢复提供科学依据十分必要。在ArcGIS支持下,选取影响西南喀斯特区生态环境的4个敏感性因子（水土流失、石漠化、酸雨及生境生物多样性）作为评价因子,采用层次分析法和综合指标法,评价西南喀斯特区域生态环境敏感性程度及空间分布情况。结果表明：西南喀斯特地区水土流失、石漠化、酸雨敏感性很高,前二者的中度敏感以上区域均占西南喀斯特区域总面积的60%以上,酸雨中度敏感以上区域达50%以上;生境生物多样性敏感性相对较低,不敏感区占西南喀斯特区总面积的40%。西南喀斯特区生态环境综合敏感度极高,中度敏感以上区域占整个研究区总面积的80%以上,不敏感和轻度敏感区主要分布在湘中南、鄂东南、广西中部喀斯特峰林平原区及云南、贵州山间盆地及河谷地区。地质背景、地形及气候是西南喀斯特区域生态环境敏感性的主导因素     

2000～2019嘉陵江流域植被覆盖时空变化特征及气候响应分析

嘉陵江是长江水系流域面积最大的一条支流,近年来嘉陵江流域出现严重水土流失,在生态保护工程的实施和气候变化的共同作用下植被覆盖发生了明显变化,研究植被覆盖时空变化特征、未来趋势和影响因素,可为嘉陵江流域生态环境治理提供参考依据.基于MODIS-NDVI时序数据和地面气象数据,借助3S技术和线性趋势分析、Hurst指数、变异系数等方法多角度分析了嘉陵江流域植被覆盖的时空演变特征及未来趋势,并结合Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验与偏相关系数研究气候因子对植被覆盖的影响.结果 表明:(1)近20年来嘉陵江流域植被覆盖总体呈上升趋势,增加速率为2.9％/10a,且空间分布上具有显著差异,表现为上中游偏高,下游偏低;(2)嘉陵江流域植被覆盖呈增加趋势和减少趋势的面积分别占88.68％和11.32％,具体表现为陇南陕南地区及中下游东部地区显著增加,流域西北部与南部各市县城区减少;(3)流域北部地区植被覆盖变化的波动性强于南部地区,中东部地区波动最小.(4)嘉陵江流域植被覆盖变化反向持续性较强,植被变化呈持续退化趋势的主要在碌曲县南部与流域南部各市县城区,呈持续改善趋势的主要在广元市剑阁县与苍溪县,其余区域呈由退化到改善的趋势;(5)气温对嘉陵江流域植被覆盖变化的影响最大,且植被NDVI对气温和降水的响应均存在一定的滞后现象,人类活动对植被覆盖变化的影响具有两面性.     

长江上游流域生长季植被覆盖度时空变化特征及其成因

植被覆盖度是衡量区域植被生长状态及描述生态环境质量的重要指标,基于MODIS MOD13A3遥感数据和气象数据,采用趋势分析法分析长江上游流域生长季植被覆盖度时空变化特征,进一步采用偏相关分析、残差分析法揭示植被覆盖度变化对气候和人类活动的响应机制。结果表明：(1)2000～2019年长江上游流域生长季植被覆盖度呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),增长速率为1.3×10^-3/a,多年平均植被覆盖度为0.64,呈东部向西北部逐渐下降趋势;(2)植被覆盖度空间分布异质性显著,61.5%的区域呈改善趋势,主要为分布在嘉陵江流域及乌江流域的栽培植物,退化区域占38.5%,主要为分布在金沙江流域及岷江上游流域的针叶林、草甸及灌丛;(3)植被覆盖度以海拔3.5 km为界,呈先上升后下降态势,海拔低于3.5 km,植被覆盖度变化随海拔变化梯度较小,海拔高于3.5 km,植被覆盖度随海拔变化梯度较大;(4)以降水为植被覆盖度变化主要影响因子的像元面积占57.5%,分布多集中在嘉陵江流域及乌江流域,以气温为主要影响因子分布较分散;(5)2000～2019年长江上游流域人类活动对植...     

川中丘陵区植被遥感动态监测及其驱动力分析

川中丘陵区是长江上游重要的生态屏障,也是国家退耕还林还草和天然林资源保护工程重点实施区。近年来,由于气候变化与人类活动的影响,该区植被覆盖及生态发生了较大变化。利用该地区2000～2015年MODIS NDVI数据、气象和土地利用数据以及研究区统计数据,采用最大值合成法(MVC)、趋势分析法和相关系数法,分析了川中丘陵区经国家生态工程建设后的植被动态变化特征,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖的影响。研究结果表明:近15年,川中丘陵区植被呈增加的趋势,增速为5. 84/10 a(P0. 01);31. 58%的区域植被NDVI显著增加,主要分布在嘉陵江中游和岷江中下游,2. 90%的区域植被NDVI显著减少,主要分布在城市中心及周边;研究区植被对降水的敏感性较气温更强,22. 08%的区域面积NDVI与降水是呈显著相关的,仅7. 69%区域面积NDVI与气温是显著的;森林、灌木和草地的NDVI增加明显,各自增加比例超过60%,而建设用地和湿地是NDVI减少最明显的土地利用类型;退耕还林还草和天然林资源保护工程的建设,对川中丘陵区植被覆盖的增长起到了积极作用。     

2000～2018年中国植被生态质量时空变化特征

监测植被变化对评价中国生态环境质量和生态过程具有重要意义.以MODIS数据反演得到的中国总初级生产力、叶面积指数、植被覆盖度、温度植被干旱指数和陆面温度5项指标为基础,构建了植被生态指数(VEI),并利用SEN+Mann-Kendall、Hurst指数及变异系数等方法对2000～2018年中国植被生态质量的时空变化特征、可持续性及稳定性等方面进行了分析.结果 表明:(1)从空间分布看,植被生态质量差和较差区面积占全国植被覆盖区总面积的25.46％,主要分布在新疆的大部分地区、甘肃西北部、青藏高原中西部及内蒙古中西部地区,优良区占比42.91％,主要分布在东北的东部和北部地区、华东的中部及南部地区、华中和华南以及秦岭地区;(2)从年际变化看,植被生态质量呈现出较为明显的增长趋势,年增长率为0.1％;(3)从空间格局变化趋势看,植被生态质量呈增加、基本不变和降低的面积分别占植被区总面积的34.82％、54.19％和10.99％;(4)从稳定性和未来变化趋势看,在过去的近20年我国植被生态质量的变化幅度较小,稳定性较好;我国植被生态质量未来的变化趋势与过去近20年一致,即将保持继续改善的趋势;(5)从不同植被类型看,13种植被类型的生态质量均呈改善趋势,且常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林和稠密灌丛的生态质量最优,永久湿地、草地和稀疏灌丛的生态质量较差.     

近16年金沙江流域植被覆盖时空特征及其对气候的响应

植被覆盖度是生态系统变化的主要指标之一.改善植被观测的时空尺度和植被动态变化及其驱动因素的方法,能够为我们提供更多植被变化的信息,有利于更好地了解该地区生态环境的特征和变化.基于MODIS-EVI数据,使用Sen和Mann-Kendall模型,结合偏相关分析和灰色关联分析(GRA)等方法,探索了金沙江流域近16年植被覆盖的时空演变特征及其气候驱动力.结果表明:(1)在近16年中,金沙江流域的植被覆盖总体上呈增加的趋势,EVI增速为0.011/10a;(2)植被覆盖改善区和退化区面积分别占总面积的55.53％和28.95％;(3)植被覆盖受气温和降水驱动的区域分别占总面积的32.627％和28.265％.在半干旱区,植被覆盖变化主要受降水的影响,而在半湿润和湿润区主要受温度的影响,但地形和植被类型会改变气候与植被覆盖之间的相关性;(4)半干旱区植被覆盖对气候的响应不明显,在半湿润和湿润区植被覆盖对温度的响应要慢于降水,响应时间也随海拔和植被类型的不同而变化.高海拔地区的植被对气候因素的响应要快于低海拔地区,农作物和草地对气候的响应更快,针叶林和混交林对温度的响应要快于降水.     

基于MODIS NDVI的攀枝花市植被覆盖变化及其驱动力#br#

攀枝花市位于金沙江与雅砻江的交汇处是长江上游生态脆弱区,也是天然林保护工程和退耕还林工程等的重点实施区。基于2001~2010年MODIS NDVI数据,以及同时期的气象数据和其他辅助数据,利用最大值合成法（MVC）、趋势分析法以及线性相关分析等方法研究了攀枝花市植被覆盖时空变化及其与气候因素和人类活动的关系。研究结果表明：攀枝花市植被覆盖整体较高,属于高植被覆盖区域,年际尺度上,植被覆盖呈上升的趋势,增长速率为0.02/10 a;从年内来看,9月NDVI达到最大值,NDVI最小值出现在3月;植被覆盖在水平空间上呈“南低北高”的分布特征,并在垂直空间上呈现出显著的差异性,研究区植被覆盖分别在海拔2 000~3 000 m、坡度30°~40°达到最大值;受水热条件的影响,阴坡（0°~45°, 315°~360°）植被覆盖高于阳坡（135°~225°）,而平地（-1°）植被覆盖度最低;就整个研究区而言,植被退化的面积与增加的面积分别占0.7%和44.4%,增加的面积远大于退化的面积;年际尺度上植被受气温的影响高于受降水的影响;大规模生态工程建设是研究区植被覆盖增加的主要驱动因素。 关键词： 植被覆盖变化;归一化植被指数;气候变化;人类活动;攀枝花市     

三江源地区人类活动对植被覆盖的影响

基于1999-2010年SPOT VEGETATION旬值NDVI数据,并结合偏相关分析、线性趋势等方法对三江源地区影响植被覆盖变化的主要气候因素进行了判断,从而利用主要气候因子进行线性拟合,进而得到残差趋势来反映人类活动对植被覆盖的影响。结果表明:①1999-2010年三江源地区平均植被覆盖由东向西逐渐减小。12年间,植被覆盖呈改善趋势,平均变化率为0.047/10a。山地草原改善最为明显,其次为高寒草甸、高寒草原和常绿针叶林,亚高山、高山植被,矮半灌木荒漠改善趋势最不明显。黄河源区变化率最高,其次是长江源区和澜沧江源区,高寒荒漠草原区改善效果最差。②三江源地区大部分区域植被覆盖主要受气温影响,其次在黄河源区北部、长江源区中东部分布有降水影响区以及水热共同影响区。常绿针叶林受水热共同影响,高山、亚高山以及高寒植被主要受气温影响,山地草原主要受降水量影响。③1999-2010年,三江源地区平均残差趋势为0.018/10a,表明人类活动对三江源地区的植被覆盖变化呈正影响。人类活动对山地草原的正影响作用最强烈,其次是山地常绿针叶林,其他由大到小依次为高寒草甸、高寒草原、高山植被、亚高山植被和高寒匍匐矮半灌木荒漠。黄河源区和澜沧江源区受人类活动的正影响作用较强且相当,其次为长江源区,高寒荒漠草原区受人类活动影响最小。     

石漠化治理区小尺度土地利用变化及其驱动机制分析——以花江石漠化治理区为例

研究石漠化治理区小尺度土地利用变化,将有助于深入分析和研究喀斯特地区土地利用变化的时空变化规律、驱动力及资源环境效应。运用逐步多元回归方法,分析石漠化治理区小尺度土地利用变化及其驱动机制。研究表明:(1)2005~2012年,研究区石漠化面积有所减少,由2 824.23 hm2减少到2 777.60 hm2,减少了46.63 hm2,占2005年石漠化面积的1.65%;石漠化程度呈现从重变轻的趋势,无石漠化和中度石漠化面积分别增加12.68%和3.08%,潜在石漠化、轻度石漠化和强度石漠化分别减少5.11%、2.07%和5.24%。其中,稳定型石漠化区域面积最大,占喀斯特面积的95.40%;土地利用变化面积比重为1.15%,土地利用较为稳定。恢复型石漠化区域面积占喀斯特面积的3.95%;土地利用变化面积比重为40.64%,土地利用变化剧烈。退化型石漠化区域面积最小,仅占喀斯特面积的0.65%;土地利用变化面积比重为22.21%,土地利用变化较明显。(2)土地利用变化以园地减少为主要特征,其变化主要由农户的劳动力文化程度变化、劳动力比重变化、本地务工收入变化和外出务工收入变化等4个因子驱动产生。其中,园地变化与本地务工收入变化指数呈显著的正相关关系,回归系数为0.691;与劳动力文化程度变化指数、劳动力比重变化指数和外出务工收入变化指数呈显著的负相关关系,回归系数分别为-0.472、-9.735和-0.443。劳动力比重变化指数是引起园地发生变化的最主要驱动因子。(3)国家因生态文明建设需求而施行退耕还林(草)政策和工业化、城镇化战略,农户因脱贫致富需要而提高文化素质和调整从业行为,分别从宏观和微观两个层面促进石漠化治理区的劳动力转移和产业转型,进而共同驱动了石漠化治理区的土地利用变化。     

优化分配方式 提高资金环境绩效

十一五期间中央环境保护专项资金下达近91亿元,为我国环境污染防治和监管基础能力建设提供了强有力的资金保障。随着财政资金使用改革的不断深入,财政部和环保部对中央环境保护专项资金的管理已从过去以评审为中心转变为以绩效为中心,无论在资金投向、分配方式、过程管理、绩效评估等方面都紧密围绕环境绩效这一中心开展。本文在对十一五期间中央环境保护专项资金资金分配总体情况总结归纳的基础上,分析了资金分配方式制约绩效发挥的主要问题,以改革创新资金分配方式、提高环境绩效为目的,对中央统筹法、项目申报法、因素分配法等三种分配方式提出了若干改革优化的建议。     

Harmful and Needless Emission of Refrigerant and Countermeasures

Refrigerants used in refrigerators are an important source of ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere, and can have a significantly negative effect on the hole in the ozone layer. But most-emission of refrigerants is man-made, unreasonable and needless. Since in most emission cases the refrigerants are contained in the refrigerators, we can retrieve them by some technique that changes the ＇manual emission＇ into manual retrieving. To promote the retrieval action and diminish the pollution, society can use economic, administrative and technical countermeasures, which can create a ＇good-cycle＇ both ＇harnessing pollution and earning income simultaneously＇, reinforce the motive of retrieving, and retrieve most proportion of refrigerants used by＇all refrigerators. This ＇good-cycle＇ method can be easily promoted, and also a valuable way to promote other forms of environmental protection. The three countermeasures have almost no social cost, even no cost at all.     

Harmful and Needless Emission of Refrigerant and Countermeasures

Abstract

Refrigerants used in refrigerators are an important source of ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere, and can have a significantly negative effect on the hole in the ozone layer. But most emission of refrigerants is man-made, unreasonable and needless. Since in most emission cases the refrigerants are contained in the refrigerators, we can retrieve them by some technique that changes the ‘manual emission’ into manual retrieving. To promote the retrieval action and diminish the pollution, society can use economic, administrative and technical countermeasures, which can create a ‘good-cycle’ both ‘harnessing pollution and earning income simultaneously’, reinforce the motive of retrieving, and retrieve most proportion of refrigerants used by all refrigerators. This ‘good-cycle’ method can be easily promoted, and also a valuable way to promote other forms of environmental protection. The three countermeasures have almost no social cost, even no cost at all.     

Comparisons of elements and inorganic compounds inside and outside of residences

The results of more than 1 yr of air monitoring inside and outside of five homes in each of two communities are presented for SO₂, NO₂, mass respirable particles, SO₄, Al, Br, Cl, Mn, Na, and V. Outdoor measurements across the home site in each city are consistent with proximity to outdoor sources. Looking across indoor residential sites in each city, the home appears to alter outdoor concentrations in several ways. Indoor level of SO₂, SO₄, Mn, and V are lower than those measured outdoors. These constituents are thought generally to result from outdoor sources. The other constituents studied are at times found in excess within homes. In some cases the source or sources of excess concentration of a particular constituent could be identified; often, however, the source of excess indoor concentration could not be identified.     

Mutagenic and carcinogenic potency of extracts of diesel and related environmental emissions: Summary and discussion of the results

The proposed conversion from gasoline powered automobiles to diesel powered vehicels has prompted the Environmental Protection Agency to evaluate the potential health effects associated with exposure to diesel emissions. At present, there is no direct epidemiological link between this exposure and human health. Therefore, a research program was constructed to compare the health effects associated with diesel emissions with those from other emission sources for which epidemiological information was available. The emission sources chosen were cigarette smoke, roofing tar, and coke oven. An additional comparative emission source which was a gasoline catalyst engine. Respirable particles from a variety of combustion sources have the potential of being carcinogenic and mutagenic. The objective of these studies was to determine the relative biological activity of the organic material adsorbed on these particles in both in vitro mutagenesis and in vitro and in vivo bioassays. The organic extracts from the following series of emission sources were quantitatively bioassayed in a matrix of tests for their carcinogenic and mutagenic activity: (1) a light-duty Oldsmobile diesel 350 engine; (2) a heavy-duty Caterpillar diesel engine; (3) a light-duty Nissan engine; (4) a Volkswagen Rabbit diesel engine; (5) cigarette smoke; (6) roofing tar; (7) coke oven; and (8) a gasoline catalyst Mustang. The test matrix consisted of the following bioassay: reverse mutation in Salmonella typhimurium; mitotic recombination in Saccharomyces cerevisiae; DNA damage in Syrian hamster embryo cells (SHE); sister chromatid exchange in CHO cells; gene mutation in L5178Y mouse lymphoma cells, Balb/c 3T3 mouse embryo fibroblasts and CHO cells; viral enhancement of SHE cells; oncogenic transformation in Balb/c 3T3 cells; and skin tumor initiation in SENCAR and C57 black mice. The results of this test matrix are discussed.     

Relevance of BFRs and thermal conditions on the formation pathways of brominated and brominated-chlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans

The widespread use of brominated flame-retarded products in the last two decades has resulted in an increasing presence of bromine in thermal processes such as waste combustion and accidental fires. Brominated and brominated-chlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans (PBDDs/PBDFs, PXDDs/PXDFs) are micropollutants of concern arising from such processes. The present review aims to evaluate the relevance of these compound classes in actual thermal processes. Four categories of thermal processes are discussed in this respect according to their potential for PBDD/PBDF and PXDD/PXDF generation: thermal stress, pyrolysis/gasification, insufficient combustion conditions and controlled combustion conditions. Under thermal stress situations, as they may occur in production or recycling processes, PBDDs/PBDFs precursors like polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE) can have a relevant potential for PBDD/PBDF formation via a simple elimination. Under insufficient combustion conditions as they are present in, e.g. accidental fires and uncontrolled burning as well as gasification/pyrolysis processes, considerable amounts of PBDDs/PBDFs can be formed from BFRs, preferably via the precursor pathway. In contrast, under controlled combustion conditions, BFRs and PBDDs/PBDFs can be destroyed with high efficiency. The relevance of de novo synthesis of PXDDs/PXDFs is discussed for this condition.Providing a basis for the understanding of PXDD/PXDF formation in actual thermal processes, the present paper also summarises the formation pathways of brominated and brominated-chlorinated PXDDs/PXDFs from brominated flame retardants (BFRs) investigated during laboratory thermolysis experiments. Relevant mechanistic steps for PBDD/PBDF formation from brominated precursors are discussed including elimination reactions, condensation steps and debromination/hydrogenation reactions.In addition, chlorination/bromination and halogen exchange reactions are briefly discussed with respect for their relevance on the final distribution of PBDDs/PBDFs, mixed chlorinated PXDDs/PXDFs and PCDDs/PCDFs resulting from thermal processes.     

Concentrations of chlorinated and brominated contaminants and their metabolites in serum of harbour seals and harbour porpoises

Harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) are top predators in the North Sea and consequently accumulate a variety of pollutants in their tissues. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their hydroxylated metabolites (HO-PCBs and HO-PBDEs) were measured in serum of wild harbour seals (n = 47) and captive harbour porpoises (n = 21). Both species exhibit long life spans and do not have extreme situations, such as complete fasting during periods of lactation, in their annual cycles. For PCBs, concentrations in adult males were slightly higher than in juveniles and lowest in juvenile females. For PBDEs, juveniles have higher levels than adult males and females, probably as a consequence of lactational transfer. However, differences between these age–gender groups were not statistical significant, indicating that individual variation was limited within each species, even without knowing the feeding status of the animals. Body condition, particularly emaciation, has a major influence on the levels of chlorinated and brominated contaminants in serum. Profiles of PCBs were CB 153 > CB 138 > CB 187 > CB 180 and CB 153 > CB 138 > CB 149 > CB 187 > CB 180 for harbour seals and porpoises respectively. For PBDEs, BDE 47 was the predominant congener followed by BDE 100 and 99 in both species. In harbour seals, concentrations of sum PCBs (median: 39,200 pg/ml) were more than 200 times higher than levels of sum PBDEs (median: 130 pg/ml) and almost 10 times higher than concentrations of sum HO-PCBs (4350 pg/ml). In harbour porpoises, concentrations of sum PCBs (median: 24,300 pg/ml) were about 20 times higher than concentrations of PBDEs (median: 1300 pg/ml). HO-PCBs were detected in only 4 harbour porpoises and this at very low concentrations. Naturally-produced MeO-PBDEs were only found in harbour porpoises at concentrations ranging from 120 to 810 pg/ml. HO-PBDEs were not found in any species. In general, harbour seals accumulate less compounds and have mostly lower concentrations than harbour porpoises possibly as a result of a better developed metabolism.     

我国探矿权资产化、证券化的模式及设想

探矿权资产化、证券化是我国改革探矿业投融资体制，解决探矿业资金瓶颈问题的关键。本文从制度建设、机构投资者的发展状况等方面分析了我国初步推行探矿权资产化、证券化的有利条件．指出了探矿权资产化、证券化的三种模式。并以基金模式和股权模式为例提出了实施探矿权资产化、证券化的步骤设想。     

中国工业化进程与能源矿产供需均衡的研究

工业化与能源需求的均衡关系及解决工业化进程中能源供需失衡的战略途径是中国工业化进程中需要探讨的重大问题.文章运用协整技术,就1990-2008年间中国工业化进程与能源需求协整关系的检验,认为中国工业化与能源需求增长具有长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求将继续保持增长,能源利用效率也将持续提高.然而工业化进程中重工业化高能耗结构特征与能源低效利用并存的困境以及能源供需矛盾不利于能源供需平衡的平稳发展.我国应适应工业化进程的基本规律,转变能源消费方式;走新型工业化道路,适当限制低附加值产业发展,鼓励产业向离附加值、低能耗、高技术产业转移;在实现能源开发利用技术进步和创新的同时.有效利用国内外能源资源;建立能源应急机制等战略途径来实现工业化进程中能源供需平衡发展.     

Fate and transport of pathogens in lakes and reservoirs

Outbreaks of water-borne disease via public water supplies continue to be reported in developed countries even though there is increased awareness of, and treatment for, pathogen contamination. Pathogen episodes in lakes and reservoirs are often associated with rain events, and the riverine inflow is considered to be major source of pathogens. Consequently, the behaviour of these inflows is of particular importance in determining pathogen transport and distribution. Inflows are controlled by their density relative to that of the lake, such that warm inflows will flow over the surface of the lake as a buoyant surface flow and cold, dense inflows will sink beneath the lake water where they will flow along the bathymetry towards the deepest point. The fate of pathogens is determined by loss processes including settling and inactivation by temperature, UV and grazing. The general trend is for the insertion timescale to be shortest, followed by sedimentation losses and temperature inactivity. The fate of Cryptosporidium due to UV light inactivation can occur at opposite ends of the scale, depending on the location of the oocysts in the water column and the extinction coefficient for UV light. For this reason, the extinction coefficient for UV light appears to be a vitally important parameter for determining the risk of Cryptosporidium contamination. For risk assessment of pathogens in supply reservoirs, it is important to understand the role of hydrodynamics in determining the timescale of transport to the off-take relative to the timescale of inactivation. The characteristics of the riverine intrusion must also be considered when designing a sampling program for pathogens. A risk management framework is presented that accounts for pathogen fate and transport for reservoirs.