The number of males in primate social groups: a comparative test of the socioecological model

As applied to polygynous mammals, the socioecological model assumes that environmental risks and resources determine the spatial and temporal distribution of females, which then sets male strategies for monopolizing fertile matings. The effects of female spatial distribution (i.e., female number) and temporal overlap (female mating synchrony) have been examined in comparative studies of primates, but the relative influence of these two factors on male monopolization potential (the number of males) remains unclear. One particular problem is that female synchrony is more difficult to estimate than female number. This paper uses multivariate statistical methods and three independent estimates of female synchrony to assess the roles of spatial and temporal effects in the context of a phylogenetically corrected dataset. These analyses are based on sensitivity analyses involving a total of four phylogenies, with two sets of branch length estimates for each tree, and one nonphylogenetic analysis in which species values are used (because male behavior may represent a facultative response to the distribution of females). The results show: (1) that breeding seasonality predicts male number (statistically significant in six out of nine sensitivity tests); (2) that expected female overlap, after controlling for female group size using residuals, also accounts for the number of males in primate groups (significant in eight out of nine tests), and (3) that actual estimates of female mating synchrony predict male number, again after correcting for female group size (significant in five out of nine tests). Nonsignificant results are in the predicted direction, and female group size is significant in all statistical tests. These analyses therefore demonstrate an independent influence of female temporal overlap on male monopolization strategies in mammalian social systems. Received: 24 July 1998 / Received in revised form: 5 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

Shell preference in a hermit crab: comparison between a matrix of paired comparisons and a multiple-alternative experiment

The preference of the hermit crab, Calcinus californiensis, among six species of shells, was tested by two different experiments. The first experiment used pair-wise trials, analyzing the preference by Chi-square tests using two different constructions of the null hypothesis. One hypothesis was based on a no-preference among shell species, the second on comparing the number of crabs changing for a particular shell species when two options were given versus the changing when no options were offered. The second experiment was a multiple-alternative test based on a rank ordering of the shell preference. This method has both statistical and resource-saving advantages over the traditional pair-wise comparisons. The sequence of shell preference was similarly independent of the procedure used. The preferred shell species are heavy and might be associated with hydrodynamic advantages and with the protection against predation. The shell preference matches with the pattern of shell occupancy indicating that the shell use in nature is determined by the crab’s preference. The information generated may be used for further research on shell preference as a methodological alternative.     

Toxicity of zinc,cadmium and copper to the shrimp Callianassa australiensis. I. Effects of individual metals

The acute toxicity of zinc, cadmium and copper to Callianassa australiensis (Dana) was evaluated in static tests. Each test lasted up to 14 d and LC₅₀ values were calculated for 4, 7, 10 and 14 d intervals. The toxicity of each metal increased with exposure time; thus the 4 d LC₅₀ values of 10.20, 6.33 and 1.03 mg l^-1 were considerably higher than the 14 d LC₅₀ values of 1.15, 0.49 and 0.19 mg l^-1 for zinc, cadmium and copper respectively. Toxicity curves reveal that none of the values were asymptotic, indicating that median lethal threshold concentrations were not reached for any of the metals. This suggests that 14 d is an insufficient time in which to complete meaningful, acute lethality tests for marine shrimps. Longer tests are necessary if lethal threshold concentrations are to be used with application factors to derive safe concentrations for the protection of C. australiensis.     

Bimodal distribution of organochlorine insecticide levels in soil due to emulsion spraying

Concentrations (c) of lindane and technical DDT have been determined in about 60 soil samples, randomly taken from a 10 × 10 m² plot of bare soil one day after spraying. These experimental c, log c data, and literature data for dieldrin are used to examine the various residue distributions in cultivated and uncultivated soil plots. The normality of these distributions is examined with some statistical tests. All c distribution curves are more or less skew to higher c levels. From the pooled cumulative distribution curve and frequency histogram it is concluded that the found c distributions can be characterized best as bimodal.

Finally, some practical recommendations are given for cost‐effective soil sampling.     

Uncertainty characterization for emergy values

While statistical estimation of uncertainty has not typically accompanied published emergy values, as with any other quantitative model, uncertainty is embedded in these values, and lack of uncertainty characterization makes their accuracy not only opaque, it also prevents the use of emergy values in statistical tests of hypotheses. This paper first attempts to describe sources of uncertainty in unit emergy values (UEVs) and presents a framework for estimating this uncertainty with analytical and stochastic models, with model choices dependent upon on how the UEV is calculated and what kind of uncertainties are quantified. The analytical model can incorporate a broader spectrum of uncertainty types than the stochastic model, including model and scenario uncertainty, which may be significant in emergy models, but is only appropriate for the most basic of emergy calculations. Although less comprehensive in its incorporation of uncertainty, the proposed stochastic method is suitable for all types of UEVs. The distributions of unit emergy values approximate the lognormal distribution with variations depending on the types of uncertainty quantified as well as the way the UEVs are calculated. While both methods of estimating uncertainty in UEVs have their limitations in their presented stage of development, this paper provides methods for incorporating uncertainty into emergy, and demonstrates how this can be depicted and propagated so that it can be used in future emergy analyses and permit emergy to be more readily incorporated into other methods of environmental assessment, such as LCA.     

A set of associated statistical tests for spatial clustering

The purpose of this paper is to develop a set of associated statistical tests for spatial clustering. In particular, a set of three associated tests will be developed; these will correspond to the three types of tests set out by Besag and Newell (general tests, focused tests, and tests for the detection of clustering). The associated tests draw primarily, though not exclusively, upon existing tests and results. The principal contributions are based upon the score statistic for focused tests, which has been an important approach to testing for clustering around environmental hazards. The first contribution consists of the formulation of a global statistic for general tests that corresponds to focused score statistics, along with an assessment of the distribution of the statistic under the null hypothesis of no raised incidence. The local score statistics used for focused tests will have the property of summing to the global statistic used for the corresponding general test. Attention is also given to the maximum local score statistic for the “test for the detection of clustering”. The critical values of this statistic which are required for testing the null hypothesis are described. Application of the methods is made to leukemia data for central New York State.     

Ecotoxicological testing of soil by four bacterial biotests

The objective of this work was threefold. Firstly, this paper intends to introduce four microbial toxicity screening methods (Bacillus subtilis agar diffusion method, Azotobacter agile and Pseudomonas fluorescens dehydrogenase enzyme inhibition tube test, and Photobacterium phosphoreum contact toxicity test) for the investigation of contaminated solid samples such as soil and sediment. Secondly, this work was carried out to prove that both soil characteristics and chemical form of contaminants influence the bioavailability of contaminants and alter the toxicity of soil sample considerably. Thirdly, the sensitivity of the above mentioned four biotests to different contaminants of the soil (heavy metals, organic compounds) was determined and compared. The data evaluation was processed by computer aided statistical methods such as cluster, correlation and principal components analysis by the use of Statgraphics^R.

According to cluster analysis carried out separately for chemical data and biological data, we observed that those samples that have similar chemical composition do not show similar toxicity, which is probably due to different bioavailability of contaminants, the impacts of soil characteristics as well as interaction of contaminants. According to the investigation of sensitivity of the examined four biotests the following conclusion could be drawn: P. phosphoreum and A. agile tests are similar in the sense that they are sensitive to Cu to a large extent and also to PAHs and hydrocarbons (CH) to a lesser extent. B. subtilis test corresponds well with P. fluorescens test method since both tests give good correlation with heavy metals. Neither B. subtilis nor P.fluorescens biotests are sensitive to organic soil contaminants such as PAH and CH.     

评估斑马鱼胚胎毒性试验在农药危害筛选中的应用

考虑到人类社会中大量使用化学物质,想要准确有效地评估这些化学物质对人类和生态受体的潜在风险,研发有效的手段和方法是至关重要的。鱼胚胎急性毒性试验是其中一种工具,已表现出与幼鱼急性毒性标准试验的预测结果高度吻合,而幼鱼试验对资源消耗更多。然而,也有证据表明,对于某些类型的化学物质,包括神经毒素,鱼类胚胎的敏感性低于幼鱼。本文利用已发表的斑马鱼胚胎毒性数据,与3种常用检测用鱼幼鱼(虹鳟鱼、蓝鳃太阳鱼、羊鲷)的半致死浓度50%(LC₅₀)数据进行比较,研究了鱼类胚胎对农药危害评估的效用。在将农药视为单因素的情况下,斑马鱼胚胎和幼鱼毒性数据相关性较差,差异显著(r²=0.28;p2=0.64;p 精选自Glaberman, S., Padilla, S. and Barron, M. G. (2017), Evaluating the zebrafish embryo toxicity test for pesticide hazard screening. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1221–1226. doi: 10.1002/etc.3641
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3641/full
     

Testing Hypotheses of Bird Extinctions at Rio Palenque,Ecuador, with Informal Species Lists

Abstract: Informally gathered species lists are a potential source of data for conservation biology, but most remain unused because of questions of reliability and statistical issues. We applied two alternative analytical methods (contingency tests and occupancy modeling) to a 35‐year data set (1973–2007) to test hypotheses about local bird extinction. We compiled data from bird lists collected by expert amateurs and professional scientists in a 2‐km² fragment of lowland tropical forest in coastal Ecuador. We tested the effects of the following on local extinction: trophic level, sociality, foraging specialization, light tolerance, geographical range area, and biogeographic source. First we assessed extinction on the basis of the number of years in which a species was not detected on the site and used contingency tests with each factor to compare the frequency of expected and observed extinction events among different species categories. Then we defined four multiyear periods that reflected different stages of deforestation and isolation of the study site and used occupancy modeling to test extinction hypotheses singly and in combination. Both types of analyses supported the biogeographic source hypothesis and the species‐range hypothesis as causes of extinction; however, occupancy modeling indicated the model incorporating all factors except foraging specialization best fit the data.     

Testing electrophoretic data for agreement with hardy-weinberg expectations

Electrophoretic data from marine organisms are routinely tested for conformity to expectations of the Hardy-Weinberg rule, but the statistical procedures used and the interpretation of their results are often flawed. This paper summarizes literature on statistical testing for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and suggests and analytical strategy based on carrying out computationally simple goodness-of-fit ² tests (with pooling and correction factors for continuity if necessary) when appropriate, and resorting to computationally tedious, exact tests when necessary. It recommends adjustments of significance levels to avoid the large Type-I error that may result from multiple tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, one for each locus and each population. It points out the obvious but common error of interpreting non-significant tests as evidence of conformity to Hardy-Weinberg expectations, and makes suggestions as to how tests that produce significance can be used to reach conclusions of biological relevance.     

The power of simulating experiments

Addressing complex ecological research questions often requires complex empirical experiments. However, due to the logistic constraints of empirical studies there is a trade-off between the complexity of experimental designs and sample size. Here, we explore if the simulation of complex ecological experiments including stochasticity-induced variation can aid in alleviating the sample size limitation of empirical studies. One area where sample size limitations constrain empirical approaches is in studies of the above- and belowground controls of trophic structure. Based on a rule- and individual-based simulation model on the effect of above- and belowground herbivores and their enemies on plant biomass, we evaluate the reliability of biomass estimates, the probability of experimental failure in terms of missing values, and the statistical power of biomass comparisons for a range of sample sizes. As expected, we observed superior performance of setups with sample sizes typical of simulations (n = 1000) as compared to empirical experiments (n = 10). At low sample sizes, simulated standard errors were smaller than expected from statistical theory, indicating that stochastic simulation models may be required in those cases where it is not possible to perform pilot studies for determining sample sizes. To avoid experimental failure, a sample size of n = 30 was required. In conclusion, we propose that the standard tool box of any ecologist should comprise a combination of simulation and empirical approaches to benefit from the realism of empirical experiments as well as the statistical power of simulations.     

基于TLSER和QSPR关系预测PAHs和PCBs的LDPE膜-空气分配系数

有机污染物在被动采样材料与环境介质之间的平衡分配系数(K_P),是测定环境中有机污染物浓度的重要参数,但K_P值大部分都需要经过繁琐的实验测定获取,无法逐个测定数量繁多的污染物,因此需开发一种预测K_P值的方法。为此,搜集整理了一些多环芳香烃(PAHs)和多氯联苯(PCBs)的低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)-空气分配系数(K_PA)的实测值,基于理论线性溶解能(TLSER)和定量结构性质关系(QSPR),利用逐步多元线性回归(MLR)分别构建了预测K_PA值的模型。模型的决定系数R2adj分别为0.927和0.956,交叉验证系数Q2LOO分别为0.915和0.946,外部系数Q2ext分别为0.913和0.960。结果表明,2种模型具有良好的拟合优度、稳健性和预测能力,并解释了模型的机理。所构建的2种模型均可用来预测应用域内有机污染物的LDPE膜-空气分配系数。     

Laboratory and field measurements of aquatic productivity made by a minicomputer employing a dual oxygen electrode system

Rates of change in oxygen concentration can be measured in the laboratory and in natural waters by using a measuring system consisting of two independent oxygen electrodes sending readings to a minicomputer ten times per second. Laboratory and experimental measurements were made under the control of the minicomputer, and differ from those made using standard approaches in two regards. First, the computer removes some of the statistical fluctuation in the data by selectively saving readings only when both electrode readings have changed in the same direction. Second, the computer alters the frequency at which data points are collected during the experiment. A predetermined number of data point pairs consisting of oxygen concentration values and time are collected by the computer. A linear regression analysis is conducted and the values of slope, intercept, sums of squares, and linear correlation coefficient are calculated and printed out. Next, the average of the absolute displacement of the data points about the regression line is calculated. Using the previously acquired value of slope, the computer calculates the length of time required for the change in oxygen concentration to be twice the average dispersion of data points about the regression line. This length of time over which n data points are to be collected is divided by (n-l) to give the waiting period between the samplings in the next round of data acquisition and linear regression. By employing a minicomputer to dynamically alter the experimental sampling frequency and to select the data points to be retained for the subsequent linear regression, it is possible to routinely obtain respiration rate estimates smaller than 20 M (O₂) h^-1 with associated linear correlation coefficients exceeding 0.97. This system has enabled us to measure the rates of oxygen production and consumption in nearshore water samples using light/dark incubations. On 24 March 1981, it was found that following the influex of the kelp Ecklonia radiata (C. Ag.) J. Agardh to nearshore waters off Perth, Western Australia, the rates of oxygen evolution and consumption by the particulate fraction (nominal diam<124 m) increase exponentially for the first 10 h. Subsequently, the rate of change of oxygen in the light decreases to the same negative value as that measured in the dark incubation. This time-varying dark respiration rate, if analyzed as an exponential function, has a doubling time of 8.2 h, a value consistent with bacterial growth rates at the ambient water temperatures (19° to 20°C).     

Inbreeding in a lek-mating ant species, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis

In this paper we have two goals. First, we examine the effects of sample size on the statistical power to detect a given amount of inbreeding in social insect populations. The statistical power to detect a given level of inbreeding is largely a function of the number of colonies sampled. We explore two sampling schemes, one in which a single individual per colony is sampled for different sample sizes and a second sampling scheme in which constant sampling effort is maintained (the product of the number of colonies and the number of workers per colony is constant). We find that adding additional workers to a sample from a colony makes it easier to detect inbreeding in samples from given number of colonies; however, adding more colonies rather than more workers per colony always gives greater power to detect inbreeding. Because even relatively large amounts of sib-mating generate relatively small inbreeding coefficients, detection of even substantial deviations from random mating will require very large samples. Second, we look at the amount of inbreeding in a large population of the western harvest ant, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis. We find deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium equivalent to approximately 27% sib-mating in our population ( f = 0.09). Review of past studies on the population structure of other Pogonomyrmex species suggests that inbreeding may be a regular feature of the mating system of these ants. Although P. occidentalisis a swarm-mating species, there are a number of features of its population biology which suggest that the effective population size may be small. These include topographical variation that potentially breaks the population into demes, variation in the reproductive output of colonies, and variation in the size of reproductives produced by colonies. Received: 6 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996     

The genetic effects of larval dispersal depend on spatial scale and habitat characteristics

The intertidal gastropods Bembicium vittatum and Austrocochlea constricta, which have direct and planktonic larval development, respectively, occur sympatrically at sites across a number of islands at the Houtman Abrolhos archipelago and two harbours at Albany in Western Australia. Their distribution provide an opportunity to examine the effect of dispersal ability on levels of genetic subdivision at a number of spatial scales. F _ST (standardised variance in allelic frequencies) values in the range 0.361 to 0.396, determined from allozyme frequencies at 12 to 13 polymorphic loci, confirm isolation of Abrolhos and Albany populations, which are separated by 900 km of coastline, in both species. Within the Abrolhos and Albany, levels of subdivision in B. vittatum were high, but similar, as indicated by F _ST values of 0.091 and 0.090, respectively. In A. constricta, a mean value of 0.160 at the Abrolhos suggests severe restrictions to gene flow, while 0.021 at Albany indicates much stronger connections among populations. F _ST values at the Abrolhos support previous suggestions that this archipelago favours genetic subdivision in both direct and planktonic-developing species. The Albany harbours favoured subdivision only in B. vittatum, the low values of F _ST in A. constricta being attributed to strong mixing between the harbours, thus facilitating gene flow via planktonic larvae. The isolation of A. constricta populations at the Abrolhos can be explained in terms of highly localised recruitment, the result of limited water movement in complex intertidal habitats. The study illustrates the value of examining sympatric direct and planktonic developers in assessing the role of larval dispersal in patterns of genetic subdivision, and concludes that planktonic larvae may not promote gene flow over broad or even some fine spatial scales.     

Cryptic multiple hypotheses testing in linear models: overestimated effect sizes and the winner's curse

Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the probability of finding at least one ‘significant’ effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies (‘the winner's curse’). Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation also of non-significant results.     

D-Pulegone: A feeding deterrent to deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster)

Summary D-Pulegone, a monoterpene present in pennyroyålMentha sp. is repellent to a number of vertebrates, decreasing consumption of feed and granular particles. In the present study, several tests were used to determine the reliability of this substance as a feeding deterrent. D-Pulegone (10mM—1M) applied as a coating to apple pieces significantly (P < 0.001) decreased ingestion by deer mice,Peromyscus maniculatus, and prairie voles,Microtus ochrogaster. The deterrent effect of d-pulegone was not diminished following multiple exposures suggesting that this compound may be a promising candidate for use a a general vertebrate repellent. The inhibitory effect of 1M d-pulegone on apple ingestion in voles was abolished when contact was prevented by encasing the stimulus solution in plastic mesh capsules. We conclude that while d-pulegone has repellent properties following direct contact, volatile exposure alone may not be sufficient to elicit avoidance behavior.     

Positive association of queen number and queen-mating frequency Myrmica ants: a challenge to the genetic-variability hypotheses

Detailed knowledge of the mating system in specific social insect populations is essential for testing general evolutionary hypotheses of multiple paternity in eusocial Hymenoptera. We have studied the mating frequency of queens in a polygynous population of the red ant Myrmica sulcinodis. Genetic mother-offspring analysis showed that double mating occurred at a considerable frequency, but that the effective number of queen-mates remained close to one. After quantifying the effects of multiple maternity (polygyny) and multiple paternity (polyandry) on the genetic diversity of workers, we conclude that multiple paternity in M. sulcinodis did not evolve as an adaptation to increase genetic variation within colonies. Contrary to the predictions from `genetic variability' hypotheses, we found a positive correlation between colony-specific queen number and the average number of mates per queen. Such positive association of queen number and frequency of multiple mating was also found after analysing comparative data across six species of Myrmica ants. These results suggest that resticted dispersal of young queens may be a common factor promoting both polygyny and polyandry at the same time, and that moderate degrees of multiple mating may be an unselected consequence of (1) mating at low cost when mating occurs close to the nest and (2) mating in swarms with a highly male biased operational sex ratio. Future comparative tests of genetic-variability hypotheses should therefore not include species with such evolutionary derived mating system characteristics. Received: 30 April 1998 / Accepted after revision: 19 August 1998     

Distribution-free two-sample comparisons in the case of heterogeneous variances

Behavioral ecologists are often faced with a situation where they need to compare the central tendencies of two samples. The standard tools of the t test and Mann–Whitney U test (equivalent to the Wilcoxon rank-sum test) are unreliable when the variances of the groups are different. The problem is particularly severe when sample sizes are different between groups. The unequal-variance t test (Welch test) may not be suitable for nonnormal data. Here, we propose the use of Brunner and Munzel’s generalized Wilcoxon test followed by randomization to allow for small sample sizes. This tests whether the probability of an individual from one population being bigger than an individual from the other deviates from random expectation. This probability may sometimes be a more clear and informative measure of difference between the groups than a difference in more commonly used measures of central tendency (such as the mean). We provide a recipe for carrying out a statistical test of the null hypothesis that this probability is 50% and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique for sample sizes typical in behavioral ecology. Although the test is not available in any commercial software package, it is relatively straightforward to implement for anyone with some programming ability. Furthermore, implementations in R and SAS are freely available on the internet.