Assessing village authenticity with satellite images: a method to identify intact cultural landscapes in Europe

The village with its characteristic zones of different land use from the center to the periphery is a basic unit of Europe's cultural landscapes. However, loss of the authentic pre-industrial village structure characterized by a fine-grained structure of arable land and wooded grasslands is a threat to both cultural heritage and biodiversity in many rural landscapes. Therefore, it is important that the extent and rate of change of such authentic villages in a landscape can be monitored. We studied to what extent loss of authenticity with increasing time after abandonment can be assessed by quantitative analysis and visual interpretation of satellite images. The study was carried out in the Bieszczady Mountains, SE Poland in 1999. Using Landsat Thematic Mapper data from 1998, both the grain size of landscape elements (size of fields) and land-cover composition (encroachment of shrub and forest) were quantitatively described 6 type villages representing different stages of deterioration of the authentic village structure. Historical maps were used to delineate the border of the villages and the former extension of forest and open land was measured. The present land use and the degree of abandonment expressed as grain size and forest encroachment were mapped using satellite data. Deterioration occurred along 2 transformation paths: abandonment and ultimately becoming forest, or intensified agriculture, respectively. To validate these results we classified 22 other villages in a 1000 km2 area by visual interpretation of the original satellite images into 1 of 4 types. We then collected historical data on human population changes over the past six decades. The classification of village authenticity was clearly related to the rate of human population decline. We address the importance of validating and applying this approach for rapid assessment of the authenticity of cultural landscapes in European regions being subject to ongoing as well as expected future change, related to expansion of the European Union. Finally, we argue that the village represents a scale at which integration of natural and social sciences is possible.     

Living in an oasis: Rapid transformations,resilience, and resistance in the North Water Area societies and ecosystems

Based on lake sediment data, archaeological findings, and historical records, we describe rapid transformations, resilience and resistance in societies and ecosystems, and their interactions in the past in the North Water area related to changes in climate and historical events. Examples are the formation of the polynya itself and the early arrival of people, ca. 4500 years ago, and later major human immigrations (different societies, cultural encounters, or abandonment) from other regions in the Arctic. While the early immigrations had relatively modest and localised effect on the ecosystem, the later-incoming culture in the early thirteenth century was marked by extensive migrations into and out of the area and abrupt shifts in hunting technologies. This has had long-lasting consequences for the local lake ecosystems. Large natural transformations in the ecosystems have also occurred over relatively short time periods related to changes in the polynya. Finally, we discuss the future perspectives for the North Water area given the many threats, but also opportunities.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Migration,markets, and mangrove resource use on Kosrae,Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, is a prototype of an island economy prone to economic crowding. Average family size is large, the habitable land area is small, economic activity is limited, and household dependence on natural resources for fuel and food is high. We analyze how economic crowding--and its mitigation through trade and migration policies--affects mangrove resource use. A comparison of household survey data from 1996 and 2000 indicates that despite decreases in US aid and public-sector jobs, average household consumption of mangrove resources has not increased. Migration and remittances have allowed the purchase of imported fuel and building materials substituting for mangrove wood. Despite changing preferences and shifts toward import consumption, population growth and further declines in US financial support will likely cause aggregate demand for mangrove and upland wood to rise. Moreover, continued emigration may accelerate the export of mangrove crabs to off-island Kosraeans.     

Socioeconomic Driving Factors of Nitrogen Load from Food Consumption and Preventive Measures

To diagnose environmental nitrogen (N) load from food consumption and to suggest preventive measures, this study identified relationships between nitrogen load from food consumption and driving factors by examining six representative countries and regions for the period 1970–2009 as an example. The logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to disassemble nitrogen load growth into four driving factors: population, economic activity, food intensity of the economy, and nitrogen content of food. In all study areas, increased economic activity was the main factor driving nitrogen load increase. The positive effect of population growth was relatively small but not negligible and changes in food intensity had a decreasing effect on nitrogen load. Changes in nitrogen content of food varied between areas. Broad strategies to reduce and mitigate nitrogen loading and decouple nitrogen load from economic growth in both developed and developing countries are suggested.     

Human exposure to dioxins through the diet in Catalonia,Spain: carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk

The main objectives of this study were to estimate the dietary intake of dioxins by the population of Catalonia, Spain, to determine which food groups showed the greatest contribution to this intake, and to assess the health risks potentially associated with the dietary dioxin intake. From June to August 2000, food samples were randomly acquired in seven cities of Catalonia. Dioxin concentrations were determined in 108 samples belonging to the following groups: vegetables, fruits, pulses, cereals, fish and shellfish, meats and meat products, eggs, milk and dairy products, and oils and fats. Estimates of average daily food consumption were obtained from recent studies. Total dietary intake of dioxins for the general population of Catalonia was estimated to be 95.4 pg WHO-TEQ/day (78.4 pg I-TEQ/day), with fish and shellfish (31%), diary products (25%), cereals (14%) and meat (13%) showing the greatest percentages of contribution to dioxin intake. The contribution of all the rest of food groups to the total dietary intake was under 20%. The non-carcinogenic risk index of dioxin intake through the diet was in the range 0.34-1.36, while the carcinogenic risk level was 1,360 excess cancer over a lifetime of 70 years. Our results corroborate the decreasing tendency in dietary intake of dioxins found in recent studies (2000-2001) from various countries.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley,USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM_2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest under growth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources.

Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using “as-planned” (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM_2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event.

Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM_2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Sensitivity to change for low-ANC eastern US lakes and streams and brook trout populations under alternative sulfate deposition scenarios

A weight-of-evidence approach was used by the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) to assess the sensitivity of chemistry and biology of lakes and streams to hypothesized changes in sulfate deposition over the next 50 years. The analyses focused on projected effects in response to differences in the magnitude and the timing of changes in sulfate deposition in the north-eastern United States, the Mid-Appalachian Highlands, and the Southern Blue Ridge Province. A number of tools was used to provide the weight of evidence that is required to have confidence in an assessment that has many uncertainties because of the complexity of the systems for which the projections of future conditions were made and because of limited historical data. The MAGIC model provided the projections of chemical changes in response to alternative deposition scenarios. Projected chemical conditions were input into biological models that evaluate effects on fish populations. The sensitivity of water chemistry and brook trout resources to the hypothesized changes in deposition was found to be greatest in the Adirondacks and Mid-Atlantic Highlands. Under the hypothesized sulfur deposition reduction scenarios, chemical conditions suitable for fish were projected to improve 20-30 years sooner than with the scenario that assumed no new legislated controls. Other lines of evidence, e.g. other models, field observations, and paleolimnological findings, were used to evaluate uncertainty in the projections. Model parameter/calibration uncertainty for the chemical models and population sampling uncertainty were explicitly quantified. Model structural uncertainties were bracketed using model comparisons, recent measured changes, and paleolimnological reconstructions of historical changes in lake chemistry.     

Agriculture as Provider of Both Food and Fuel

A database of global agricultural primary production has been constructed and used to estimate its energy content. The portion of crops available for food and biofuel after postharvest losses was evaluated. The basic conditions for agriculture and plant growth were studied, to ensure sustainable scenarios regarding use of residues. The available energy contents for the world and EU27 was found to be 7,200–9,300 and 430 TWh, respectively, to be compared with food requirements of 7,100 and 530 TWh. Clearly, very little, or nothing, remains for biofuel from agricultural primary crops. However, by using residues and bioorganic waste, it was found that biofuel production could theoretically replace one-fourth of the global consumption of fossil fuels for transport. The expansion potential for global agriculture is limited by availability of land, water, and energy. A future decrease in supply of fossil energy and ongoing land degradation will thus cause difficulties for increased biofuel production from agriculture.     

Forest decline and its causes in the south-central rift valley of Ethiopia: human impact over a one hundred year perspective

Forest decline in Ethiopia is highlighted by several authors but there is no consensus on its causes and consequences. The objective of this study is to investigate, from sociopolitical and geographical perspectives, the linkage between the trend of forest decline and changes in the social, economic, and political pattern in the Awassa watershed over a 100-year perspective. Field observations, satellite image and map analyses, interviews, and literature studies were employed, and natural indicators were analyzed. The findings indicate that the forest area declined from about 40% at the turn of the 19th century to less than 3% in the year 2000. Forest decline in the study area during the elected time period is the result of the combination of biophysical and social conditions. Important causes are geographic properties, sociopolitical changes, population growth, unstable land tenure principles, agricultural development, and the improvement of transport capacity. The main conclusions are as follows: Already in the early 20th century forest decline was in progress and forests were attributed an insignificant economic classification. Large areas of forest were cut down during periods of political transition when as a result of the political vacuum, interest in the protection of resources including forests was lacking. Long-term planning efforts to manage forests were obstructed by uncertainty resulting from land tenure principle change during each political period. The sparse area of forest land that remains is becoming increasingly attractive as potential land for arable agriculture because of improved road access between the study area and distant markets.     

Risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure from ingested food: the Azerbaijan case study

Risks due to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure from food consumption for the population of Azerbaijan were determined using deterministic and probabilistic methods. The guidelines and methods described and presented in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Part A was used in performing the risk assessments. The current study utilized concentration data from different sources representing international studies performed over the past decade to determine those food products that contribute the most exposure to PAHs through ingestion for the Azeri population. Due to lack of concentration data from middle-Eastern countries, only European countries were considered and used for this analysis. Using the benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) toxicity equivalency factors (TEFs) to adjust the concentrations of the individual PAH compounds to BaP equivalent concentrations, risk analyses were performed. Deterministic risk estimates fell within probabilistic risk estimates. Child risks were consistently four to seven times higher in magnitude than adult risks. Risk potentials determined for the food exposure pathway were also determined to be up to ten times higher in magnitude than risks determined from exposures due to other pathways such as soil contamination. It was observed that three major factors contributed to the variability in the assessment results, which were child and adult body weights, consumption rates of the different food groups, and the variances of the input data. The most prevalent pathways of PAH exposure from the dietary patterns of the Azerbaijani population were determined to be from bread and bakery products, milk and dairy products, and egg products.     

Human intake fractions of pesticides via greenhouse tomato consumption: comparing model estimates with measurements for Captan

Human intake due to pesticide residues in food commodities can be much higher than those related to water consumption and air inhalation, stressing the importance to correctly estimate pesticide uptake into plants and predict subsequent intake by humans. We calculated the human intake fraction of captan via tomato consumption taking into account the time between pesticide application and harvest, the time between harvest and consumption, the absorption of spray deposit on plant surfaces, transfer properties through the cuticle, degradation inside the plant and loss due to food processing. Human population intake fractions due to ingestion were calculated for complete, washed and peeled tomatoes. The calculated intake fractions were compared with measurements derived from an experimental setup in a Mediterranean greenhouse. The fraction of captan applied in the greenhouse as plant treatment that eventually is ingested by the human population is on average 10(-2)-10(-5), depending on the time between pesticide application and ingestion of tomatoes and the processing step considered. Model and experimentally derived intake fractions deviated less than a factor of 2 for complete and washed tomatoes and a factor of 3 for peeled tomatoes. Intake fractions due to air inhalation and consumption of drinking water are expected to be significantly lower (5-9 orders of magnitude) than those induced by the intake of tomatoes in this case study.     

Dietary intake of PCDD/F by small children with different food consumption measured by the duplicate method

The dietary intake of PCDD/F by 42 small children, 21 boys and 21 girls in the age range 14-47 months, with different food consumption behaviour living in urban and rural areas of Germany was measured by the duplicate method with a 7 day sampling period from May to September 1998. The PCDD/F-levels in the food duplicates were in the range 39.2-325 fg I-TEq/g(dry weight) (median: 90.7; arithmetic mean: 96.6) and the doses were in the range 0.681-5.43 with a median of 1.56 and an arithmetic mean (AM) of 1.60 pg I-TEq/(kg(body weight) x d). Children living in an urban industrialized area with food consumption including products from the family owned vegetable gardens or the surrounding area and/or products from domestic animals showed no statistically significant different concentrations in the food duplicates or in the dietary intake of PCDD/F, calculated as I-TEq, than children living in a rural area with similar food consumption behavior or than children consuming exclusively food from the supermarket.     

Intensification,regulation and diversification: The changing face of inland aquaculture in China

Trends in aquatic food consumption were matched against farm production surveys within Hubei province and compared to official production data and statistics. Surveys showed that consumer tastes were changing to a much broader aquatic food menu as their spending power increased. Traditional aquaculture species were becoming less profitable due to reduced profit margins as input costs increased and consumption preferences changed. Consequently, many producers were diversifying their production to meet local demand. Some farmers were also de-intensifying by reducing commercial aquafeed inputs and reverting to more traditional methods of dyke-crop culture to optimise trade-offs between input costs and labour, and manage their risk more effectively. In addition, analysis of local data showed that wholesale changes were occurring to aquaculture production as environmental protection legislation took effect which reduced the growing area for carps considerably.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01503-3.     

Regional-scale land-cover change during the 20th century and its consequences for biodiversity

Extensive changes in land cover during the 20th century are known to have had detrimental effects on biodiversity in rural landscapes, but the magnitude of change and their ecological effects are not well known on regional scales. We digitized historical maps from the beginning of the 20th century over a 1652 km² study area in southeastern Sweden, comparing it to modern-day land cover with a focus on valuable habitat types. Semi-natural grassland cover decreased by over 96 % in the study area, being largely lost to afforestation and silviculture. Grasslands on finer soils were more likely to be converted into modern grassland or arable fields. However, in addition to remaining semi-natural grassland, today’s valuable deciduous forest and wetland habitats were mostly grazed grassland in 1900. An analysis of the landscape-level biodiversity revealed that plant species richness was generally more related to the modern landscape, with grazing management being a positive influence on species richness.     

Human intoxication by agrochemicals in the region of South Brazil between 1999 and 2014

The objective of this study was to evaluate pesticide poisonings in the southern region of Brazil between years 1999 and 2014. Data were collected from the database Sinitox. Intoxications and deaths were evaluated according to the distribution by gender (female and male), age group (≤14, 15–59 and ≥60 years), area of occurrence (urban and rural), circumstance (accident, occupational and suicide attempt) and evolution of the cases over time (cure, unconfirmed cure, death and sequelae). In the evaluated period, 21,305 cases of intoxication were registered. The results show that males between the ages of 15 and 59 years are more affected; and there is a greater representativeness in the urban area. These results are related to the application of agrochemicals being carried out by individuals between 15 and 59 years of age. The great correlation of urban area possibly occurs in function of the air currents brought from the field and as a result, population has been more affected and the consumption of contaminated food. It was observed that women handling pesticides more cautiously, in this way the accidents with male gender are more frequent, however, many women use the product intentionally to provoke suicide.     

Estimating the contribution of precursor compounds in consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA

The exposure of humans to perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was quantified with emphasis on assessing the relative importance of metabolic transformation of precursor compounds. A Scenario-Based Risk Assessment (SceBRA) approach was used to model the exposure to these compounds from a variety of different pathways, the uptake into the human body and resulting daily doses. To capture the physiological and behavioral differences of age and gender, the exposure and resulting doses for seven consumer groups were calculated. The estimated chronic doses of a general population of an industrialized country range from 3.9 to 520 ng/(kg day) and 0.3 to 140 ng/(kg day) for PFOS and PFOA, respectively. The relative importance of precursor-based doses of PFOS and PFOA was estimated to be 2-5% and 2-8% in an intermediate scenario and 60-80% and 28-55% in a high-exposure scenario. This indicates that sub groups of the population may receive a substantial part of the PFOS and PFOA doses from precursor compounds, even though they are of low importance for the general population. Similar to a preceding study, uptake of perfluorinated acids from contaminated food and drinking water was identified as the most important pathway of exposure for the general population. The biotransformation yields of telomer-based precursors and to a lesser extent perfluorooctanesulfonylfluoride-based precursors were identified as influential parameters in the uncertainty analysis. Fast food consumption and fraction of food packaging paper treated with PFCs were influential parameters for determining the doses of PFOA.     

Pastoralists in a changing environment: The competition for grazing land in and around the W Biosphere Reserve,Benin Republic

Pastoralists face increasing competition for land with crop farmers and nature in and around the W Biosphere Reserve (WBR) in Benin. Our aim was to describe and analyse land use changes in order to understand their drivers, and to describe and analyse the viewpoints of relevant stakeholders in order to understand the competition for land. To this end, remote sensing data, regional statistics, and survey data were collected. We found that crop land expansion around the WBR was the direct driver of decrease of the grazing land area. Population growth and rising demand for food crops, and government support to the cotton sector were indirect drivers of grazing land reduction. Furthermore, competing claims on land among users arose from the complex interaction of crop expansion, presence of WBR and the way it is governed, the lack of support to pastoralists, and the increasing shift of pastoralists’ lifestyle into one of settled crop farmers. Pastoralism is under threat and its survival depends on the successful implementation of policies to support pastoralists and protect grazing lands.     

Modelling tundra vegetation response to recent arctic warming

The Arctic land area has warmed by > 1 °C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO(2) for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.     

Impact of impoldering and lake restoration on land-cover changes in Dongting Lake area, Central Yangtze

Human activities can have a remarkable effect on land-cover patterns over time. This study characterized long-term (1930s-1998) land-cover changes in Dongting Lake area in the Central Yangtze River, China, by digitalizing historical topographical maps for the 1930s and 1950s and interpreting satellite remote sensing data for 1978, 1989, and 1998. The study indicates that land-cover patterns in Dongting Lake area have been greatly altered by impoldering and subsequent lake restoration activities in the past 70 years. There are two distinct periods of change characterized by impoldering (1930s-1978) and lake restoration (1978-1998). In the former period, cropland increased sharply at the cost of a drop in other land-cover types, which had resulted in significant negative consequences, while the pattern of land-cover changes reversed in the later period.