Forgotten carbon: indirect CO2 in greenhouse gas emission inventories

National governments that are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories accounting for the emissions and removals occurring within their geographic territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides inventory methodology guidance to the Parties of the UNFCCC. This methodology guidance, and national inventories based on it, omits carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmospheric oxidation of methane, carbon monoxide, and non-methane volatile organic compounds emissions that result from several source categories. The inclusion of this category of “indirect” CO₂ in GHG inventories increases global anthropogenic emissions (excluding land use and forestry) between 0.5 and 0.7%. However, the effect of inclusion on aggregate UNFCCC Annex I Party GHG emissions would be to reduce the growth of total emissions, from 1990 to 2004, by 0.2% points. The effect on the GHG emissions and emission trends of individual countries varies. The paper includes a methodology for calculating these emissions and discusses uncertainties. Indirect CO₂ is equally relevant for GHG inventories at other scales, such as global, regional, organizational, and facility. Similarly, project-based methodologies, such as those used under the Clean Development Mechanism, may need revising to account for indirect CO₂.     

Disaggregated greenhouse gas emission inventories from agriculture via a coupled economic-ecosystem model

Estimates of regional greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural systems are needed to evaluate possible mitigation strategies with respect to environmental effectiveness and economic feasibility. Therefore, in this study, we used the GIS-coupled economic-ecosystem model EFEM–DNDC to assess disaggregated regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from typical livestock and crop production systems in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, Southwest Germany. EFEM is an economic farm production model based on linear programming of typical agricultural production systems and simulates all relevant farm management processes and GHG emissions. DNDC is a process-oriented ecosystem model that describes the complete biogeochemical C and N cycle of agricultural soils, including all trace gases.Direct soil emissions were mainly related to N₂O, whereas CH₄ uptake had marginal influence (net soil C uptake or release was not considered). The simulated N₂O emissions appeared to be highly correlated to N fertilizer application (R² = 0.79). The emission factor for Baden-Württemberg was 0.97% of the applied N after excluding background emissions.Analysis of the production systems showed that total GHG emissions from crop based production systems were considerably lower (2.6–3.4 Mg CO₂ eq ha⁻¹) than from livestock based systems (5.2–5.3 Mg CO₂ eq ha⁻¹). Average production system GHG emissions for Baden-Württemberg were 4.5 Mg CO₂ eq ha⁻¹. Of the total 38% were derived from N₂O (direct and indirect soil emissions, and manure storage), 40% were from CH₄ (enteric fermentation and manure storage), and 22% were from CO₂ (mainly fertilizer production, gasoline, heating, and additional feed). The stocking rate was highly correlated (R² = 0.85) to the total production system GHG emissions and appears to be a useful indicator of regional emission levels.     

Exploring the assumed invariance of implied emission factors for forest biomass in greenhouse gas inventories

Reviews of each nation's annual greenhouse gas inventory submissions including forestland are part of the ongoing reporting process of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Goals of these reviews include improving quality and consistency within and among reports. One method of facilitating comparisons is the use of a standard index such as an implied emission factor (IEF), which for forest biomass indicates net rate of carbon emission or sequestration per area. Guidance on the use of IEFs in reviews is limited, but there is an expectation that values should be relatively constant both over time and across spatial scales. To address this hypothesis, we examine IEFs over time, derived from U.S. forests at plot-, state-, and national-levels. Results show that at increasingly aggregated levels, relative heterogeneity decreases but can still be substantial. A net increase in U.S. whole-forest IEFs over time is consistent with results from temperate forests of nations in the European Community. IEFs are better viewed as a distribution of values rather than one constant value principally because of sensitivities to productivity, disturbance, and land use change, which can all vary considerably across a nation's forest land.     

Improving the quality of national greenhouse gas inventories

This paper summarises the findings of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Expert Meeting on Methods for the Assessment of Inventory Data Quality held in Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 5–7 November 1997. Under the Kyoto Protocol of the Climate Convention, reliable inventories of national greenhouse gases (GHG) are needed for verifying compliance. Four approaches are suggested for assessing and improving the quality of greenhouse gas inventories: inventory quality assurance; inventory comparisons; model comparisons; and direct emission measurements. The paper presents recommendations for improving the quality of emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O).     

Setting greenhouse gas emission targets under baseline uncertainty: the Bush Climate Change Initiative

There is substantial uncertainty regarding baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts—i.e., how GHG emissions will grow over time in the absence of policy intervention. Thus baseline uncertainty should be a key consideration in setting GHG emissions targets as a mitigation strategy to respond to global climate change. At a minimum, the emissions target must be less than the baseline level to induce changing behavior and new investment. Despite this fundamental policy criterion, baseline considerations have played only a minor role in target setting under international climate policy. Baseline uncertainty applies to both absolute and intensity based emissions targets. It is demonstrated that one advantage of intensity targets is reduced uncertainty in the projected baseline, however there will always be some residual uncertainty in model projections. To illustrate the importance of considering baseline uncertainty in GHG target setting, the Bush Climate Change Initiative is analyzed against its projected baseline as a case study of a modest intensity target. Based on comparison with historical data, the range of projections by major energy-economic models, past discrepancies in the accuracy of model projections and the added complexity of sector-specific drivers for non-CO₂ GHGs, it is shown that the Bush Initiative cannot be guaranteed or even expected to deliver actual reductions against an uncertain baseline. This finding emphasizes the importance of setting a target that accounts for baseline uncertainty to achieve genuine mitigation of GHG emissions.

Vegetation thickening in an ecological perspective: significance to national greenhouse gas inventories

‘Vegetation thickening’ often refers to an increasing shrub and tree density on many grazed rangelands, woodlands and forests that may or may not have supported such woody plant populations in the past. It is one of several ecosystem changes, including post-clearing re-growth, afforestation and reforestation, which are variants of the same biological phenomenon — the recovery phase of disturbance/recovery cycles that all vegetation undergoes continuously. There are various levels of human influence over both phases. It is important as part of the global carbon cycle and potentially for its implications for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Vegetation thickening poses some inventory and carbon accounting challenges in this regard because of difficulties with quantification and attribution. The attribution of carbon sinks to natural, indirect or direct human influence is difficult because of the complex interactions of factors in determining woodland dynamics. The lack of clear scientific distinction of causation requires decisions to be made on how this is calculated in inventories of greenhouse gas emissions. Advantages, disadvantages, workability and dilemmas of five possible accounting approaches to dealing with these human-influenced biological components are discussed. These approaches range from accounting solely for emissions from clearing ignoring complementary re-growth sinks, to full emissions accounting including methane, nitrous oxide and CO₂ emissions from the managed animals and land.     

No-policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios: revisiting IPCC 1992

A new set of no-policy global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios was developed using the atmospheric stabilization framework, the same modeling tool that was used to generate the IS92 emission scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised assumptions about population and economic growth, combined with updated information on changes in renewable energy supply, the efficiency of energy generation and other factors resulted in changes in GHG emission profiles over the next century, which led to an increase in the estimated global average temperature change as compared to the IS92 scenarios. Model results indicate that the largest increase in emissions, which led to a temperature increase of about 3.4°C by 2100 (relative to 1990), can be expected when a rapid increase in the GNP per capita levels of the non-OECD countries is combined with a low availability of solar/wind and biomass energy resources and slow energy efficiency improvements. The smallest increase in emissions and temperature by 2100 (about 2.5°C) occurred when a relatively slow increase in the GNP per capita in the non-OECD countries was combined with a high availability of renewable energy resources and rapid energy efficiency improvements.     

Characteristics of greenhouse gas emission in three full-scale wastewater treatment processes

Three full-scale wastewater treatment processes, Orbal oxidation ditch, anoxic/anaerobic/aerobic （reversed A^2O） and anaerobic/anoxic/aerobic （A^2O）, were selected to investigate the emission characteristics of greenhouse gases （GHG）, including carbon dioxide （CO2）, methane （CH4） and nitrous oxide （N2O）. Results showed that although the processes were different, the units presenting high GHG emission fluxes were remarkably similar, namely the highest CO2 and N2O emission fluxes occurred in the aerobic areas, and the highest CH4 emission fluxes occurred in the grit tanks. The GHG emission amount of each unit can be calculated from its area and GHG emission flux. The calculation results revealed that the maximum emission amounts of CO2, CH4 and N2O in the three wastewater treatment processes appeared in the aerobic areas in all cases. Theoretically, CH4 should be produced in anaerobic conditions, rather than aerobic conditions. However, results in this study showed that the CH4 emission fluxes in the forepart of the aerobic area were distinctly higher than in the anaerobic area. The situation for N2O was similar to that of CH4： the N2O emission flux in the aerobic area was also higher than that in the anoxic area. Through analysis of the GHG mass balance, it was found that the flow of dissolved GHG in the wastewater treatment processes and aerators may be the main reason for this phenomenon. Based on the monitoring and calculation results, GHG emission factors for the three wastewater treatment processes were determined. The A^2O process had the highest CO2 emission factor of 319.3 g CO2/kg CODremoved, and the highest CH4 and N2O emission factors of 3.3 g CH4/kg CODremoved and 3.6 g N2O/kg TNremoved were observed in the Orbal oxidation ditch process.     

水库建成与运行对温室气体排放的影响

碳中和是全球控制增温效应的主要手段,而准确估算碳排放是预测气候变化与实现碳中和的重要环节.水库是温室气体的重要排放源,由于受人为活动及水库运行方式的影响,水库温室气体排放量估算存在许多不确定性.本研究总结了水库主要温室气体(CH4、CO2和N2O)的产生与排放过程,重点分析了水库温室气体产生与排放的主要影响因素,包括水库库龄、位置和大小及有机物、温度、溶解氧、流速、水深和风速等;并通过分析水库建成前后水文情势的改变,探讨了水库建成对温室气体排放的可能影响.在此基础上,进一步提出未来水库温室气体排放有待研究的4个方面:水库系统扩散及冒泡通量的时空异质性、水库不同区域温室气体排放的差异性、多沙河流水库温室气体排放规律、水库建成前后温室气体排放情况对比,从而为更全面地评估水库温室气体排放提供依据.     

深圳市道路交通源温室气体排放特征分析

于2019年9月～2020年7月对深圳市福田区路边的大气CO2、CH4、N2O和CO浓度进行了观测分析.结果显示,其观测时段平均浓度分别为(430.8±6.1)×10-6、(2318.5±137.9)×10-9、(332.6±1.6)×10-9和(333.4±121.2)×10-9.CO2与CO浓度的季节变化表现为冬季...     

放牧对内蒙古草原温室气体排放的影响

静态箱-气相色谱法用于测定内蒙古典型草原温室气体排放.禁牧草原及放牧草原吸收CH₄、排放N₂O和CO₂各自有其相对固定的季节变化形式,草原和大气交换温室气体通量的季节变化形式主要受年度气候变化所控制,而土壤、植被类型、降雨量等禁牧因素和放牧强度等人为因素仅影响排放强度.与禁牧草原相比,自由放牧降低了羊草草原对CH4的吸收和对N₂O的排放,但大大增加了CO₂的排放量.随着放牧强度的增加,草原温室气体排放强度呈线性迅速增长.     

Forest carbon accounting methods and the consequences of forest bioenergy for national greenhouse gas emissions inventories

While bioenergy plays a key role in strategies for increasing renewable energy deployment, studies assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest bioenergy systems have identified a potential trade-off of the system with forest carbon stocks. Of particular importance to national GHG inventories is how trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and bioenergy production are accounted for within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector under current and future international climate change mitigation agreements. Through a case study of electricity produced using wood pellets from harvested forest stands in Ontario, Canada, this study assesses the implications of forest carbon accounting approaches on net emissions attributable to pellets produced for domestic use or export. Particular emphasis is placed on the forest management reference level (FMRL) method, as it will be employed by most Annex I nations in the next Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period. While bioenergy production is found to reduce forest carbon sequestration, under the FMRL approach this trade-off may not be accounted for and thus not incur an accountable AFOLU-related emission, provided that total forest harvest remains at or below that defined under the FMRL baseline. In contrast, accounting for forest carbon trade-offs associated with harvest for bioenergy results in an increase in net GHG emissions (AFOLU and life cycle emissions) lasting 37 or 90 years (if displacing coal or natural gas combined cycle generation, respectively). AFOLU emissions calculated using the Gross-Net approach are dominated by legacy effects of past management and natural disturbance, indicating near-term net forest carbon increase but longer-term reduction in forest carbon stocks. Export of wood pellets to EU markets does not greatly affect the total life cycle GHG emissions of wood pellets. However, pellet exporting countries risk creating a considerable GHG emissions burden, as they are responsible for AFOLU and bioenergy production emissions but do not receive credit for pellets displacing fossil fuel-related GHG emissions. Countries producing bioenergy from forest biomass, whether for domestic use or for export, should carefully consider potential implications of alternate forest carbon accounting methods to ensure that potential bioenergy pathways can contribute to GHG emissions reduction targets.     

广东省移动源中等挥发性有机物(IVOCs)排放清单及不确定性分析

中等挥发性有机物（Intermediate Volatility Organic Compounds,IVOCs）是二次有机气溶胶（SOA）的重要前体物.然而,当前我国IVOCs排放清单研究相对较少,现有研究大多采用基于IVOCs/POA比值法估算,导致IVOCs排放表征存在很高的不确定性.以移动源为研究对象,在优先采用本土实测的排放因子的基础上,构建了基于实测排放因子的广东省2019年移动源IVOCs排放清单,并与基于IVOCs/POA比值法建立的排放清单进行对比评估.结果显示：2019年广东省移动源IVOCs总排放量为2.1万t,其中,道路移动源IVOCs排放量为1.5万t,占总排放量的70%,主要来自柴油重货（33%）、柴油轻货（23%）、汽油小客（14%）.其中,道路移动源IVOCs汽油车主要以国四、国五标准车型为主,分别占 汽油车排放的36%和49%,而柴油车主要以国三、国四标准车型为主,分别占柴油车排放的53%和28%.相比实测因子法,比值法计算的道路移动源IVOCs排放整体偏高了100%~200%,但计算的非道路移动源IVOCs排放整体偏低了近1/3.通过不确定性量化对比也发现,实测因子法建立的IVOCs排放清单不确定性整体比比值法平均降低了60%,表明实测排放因子能够提高IVOCs表征的可靠性.此外,本土和国外实测排放因子建立的道路移动源IVOCs排放也有明显差异,采用国外实测排放因子可能会导致广东省2019年道路移动源IVOCs排放低估30%~50%.     

基于文献计量方法的全球温室气体排放研究态势分析

为共同应对温室气体排放造成的气候变化问题,学界进行了大量相关研究,其研究现状受到各界关注.为深入了解全球温室气体排放研究的目前状况和前沿动态,以ISI Web of Knowledge的Web of Science引文数据库为数据源,采用文献计量学方法对其中1995-2019年发表的全球温室气体排放领域的相关文献进行计量分析.结果表明：①本领域在全球范围内维持了比较高的关注度,近10年发文量上升速度较快;②领域内主要研究力量分布在美国、中国、英国等地,且具有较大学术影响力的各机构、作者间合作频繁;③领域研究内容以二氧化碳、甲烷等传统温室气体及其导致的气候变化效应为主,中后期出现了氧化亚氮等其他温室气体的相关研究,中国是较多见的研究案例所在地;④领域高引文章涉及重要温室气体的源汇识别和强度计算、全球排放预算估计、针对重要排放部门的减排措施等主题,采用包含实验测量、模拟计算在内的多种手段寻找优势减排潜力部门,推动减排目标的实现.未来本领域的研究将继续深入发展,从而更有效地服务于气候变化应对战略.     

湖北省畜禽粪便温室气体减排潜力分析

畜禽粪便是农业温室气体的重要排放源.合理的粪便管理方式可有效降低温室气体排放,同时减少环境污染.为明确不同养殖模式下适宜的粪便管理方式对温室气体减排的有效性,以湖北省为案例地,针对不同畜禽的粪便特征、区域自然条件和畜禽养殖模式等,筛选适宜的粪便管理方式;运用政府间气候变化专门委员会提出的畜禽粪便温室气体排放因子测算模型,在优化管理方式的基础上进行排放因子预测,估算由粪便管理方式改进所带来的减排潜力.结果表明,粪便管理经优化后畜禽粪便温室气体排放减少1.98~357.82 kg·头-1·a-1(以CO2当量计).根据养殖规模发展趋势预测,至2020年全省畜禽粪便优化管理所带来的减排潜力可达322.78万t(以CO2当量计).不同地区间减排效果则与当地养殖规模、养殖结构、养殖模式及适宜的畜禽粪便管理方式密切相关;畜禽种类间粪便特性的不同是其CH4和N2O减排效率迥异的主要原因;规模化养殖粪便管理方式优化是实现区域温室气体减排的重点.结合区域自然条件和畜禽养殖特征等,筛选适宜的粪便管理方式是实现区域温室气体减排的有效措施.     

Costs and benefits of differences in the timing of greenhouse gas emission reductions

Most modelling studies that explore long-term greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios focus on cost-efficient emission pathways towards a certain climate target, like the internationally agreed target to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels (the 2 °C climate target). However, different timing of reductions lead to different transient temperature increase over the course of the century and subsequently to differences in the time profiles of not only the mitigation costs but also adaptation costs and residual climate change damage. This study adds to the existing literature by focussing on the implication of these differences for the evaluation of a set of three mitigation scenarios (early action, gradual action and delayed action), all three limiting global temperature increase below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, using different discount rates. The study shows that the gradual mitigation pathway is, for these discount rates, preferred over early or delayed action in terms of total climate costs and net benefits. The relative costs and benefits of the early or delayed mitigation action scenarios, in contrast, do strongly depend on the discount rate applied. For specific discount rates, these pathways might therefore be preferred for other reasons, such as reducing long-term uncertainty in climate costs by early action.     

华中地区畜牧业温室气体排放特征分析与预测

采用IPCC推荐的温室气体清单计算方法,从温室气体排放总量、排放强度等方面分析了华中地区畜牧业温室气体排放现状;根据不同牲畜饲养数量,采用Logisticgrowth model、Gompertzcurve model等非线性时间序列模型模拟2030年华中地区牲畜数量,并计算畜牧业温室气体排放量.结果显示,2015年华中地区温室气体排放为6289.09万t CO₂-eq,单位GDP温室气体排放量为1.13万t CO₂-eq/亿元,单位肉类产量排放强度为3.73t CO₂-eq/t;2030年华中地区畜牧业温室气体排放总量约为4990.06（温室气体排放预测1）~5932.74万tCO₂-eq（温室气体排放预测2）.应当进一步优化畜牧业饲养技术及条件来提高产业温室气体排放效率,科学合理的规划不同牲畜的饲养规模,优化牲畜饲养结构来降低畜牧业温室气体排放量.     

有机肥及补充灌溉对旱地农田温室气体排放的影响

在农业生产中,提高作物产量减少农田温室气体排放具有重要意义.本文采用静态箱-气相色谱法,在黄土高原半干旱半湿润区,以单施氮肥180 kg·hm~(-2)(以N计)为对照,研究了氮肥180 kg·hm~(-2)+有机肥45×103kg·hm~(-2)(NM)、氮肥180 kg·hm~(-2)+有机肥45×103kg·hm~(-2)+拔节期灌水(NMW)处理在冬小麦生育期温室气体的变化规律及其综合增温潜势(Global warming potential,GWP),并计算温室气体排放强度(Greenhouse gas intensity,GHGI),以明确有机肥及补充灌溉的增产潜力及对温室气体的减排效果.结果表明:(1)整个生育期CO_2排放速率随作物生长发育的加速而逐渐加快,接近成熟期其排放速率降低;N_2O排放峰均出现在施肥、降雨及灌水后.NM、NMW处理的CO_2累积排放量(以C计,下同)分别为14933.35 kg·hm~(-2)、15929.74 kg·hm~(-2),比对照分别增加了22.8%、31.0%;N_2O累积排放量(以N计,下同)分别为0.48kg·hm~(-2)、0.52 kg·hm~(-2),比对照分别降低了23.8%、17.5%;CH4累积吸收量分别为1.73 kg·hm~(-2)、1.87 kg·hm~(-2),比对照分别降低了18.4%、11.8%.(2)CH4吸收速率与土壤温度呈显著性正相关,而与土壤含水量呈显著性负相关;CO_2排放速率与土壤温度及含水量均呈显著性正相关;N_2O排放速率与土壤温度、含水量及硝态氮含量均呈显著性正相关,与铵态氮含量呈负相关.(3)NM、NMW处理的GWP比对照分别降低了27.8%、21.2%;NM、NMW均显著增加了小麦产量,增产率分别为24.6%、36.7%.NM、NMW的GHGI比对照分别降低了41.9%、42.4%.说明在施用有机肥及有机肥加补充灌水在增加作物产量的同时,达到了温室气体减排的作用.     

大黑汀水库夏秋季节温室气体赋存及排放特征

以北方典型富营养化水库-大黑汀水库水体为研究对象,在2018年夏季和秋季采用顶空平衡法对其表层35个点位水体溶解的二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）和氧化亚氮（N₂O）浓度进行测定,并对水库水-气界面扩散通量进行了估算.结果表明夏季和秋季大黑汀水库表层水体的CO₂、CH₄和N₂O整体上均表现为过饱和状态,夏季表层水体CO₂溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（72.75±67.49）μmol/L和（810.62±790.64）μmol/（m²·h）;秋季CO₂溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（394.64±104.13）μmol/L和（4822.81±1250.00）μmol/（m²·h）;夏季CH₄平均浓度和扩散通量分别为（0.19±0.12）μmol/L和（3.04±2.10）μmol/（m²·h）,秋季CH₄平均浓度和扩散通量分别为（0.41±0.26）μmol/L和（5.16±3.23）μmol/（m²·h）;夏季N₂O溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（0.03±0.01）μmol/L和（0.31±0.10）μmol/（m²·h）,秋季N₂O溶存浓度和扩散通量均值分别为（0.03±0.01）μmol/L和（0.25±0.15）μmol/（m²·h）.相关性分析结果表明大黑汀水库夏季表层水体CO₂及N₂O浓度主要受水温、水深和电导率影响,CH₄浓度主要受水深及电导率影响;水库秋季表层水体CO₂溶存浓度主要受水温、水深和TDS影响,CH₄浓度主要受水温、水深和TDS影响,N₂O浓度主要受水深影响.     

废弃物领域协同减排是实现温室气体减排的重要途径

温室气体减排背后巨大的利益博弈成为我国开展减排工作不得不考虑的因素。从国际经验看来,＂避重就轻＂的减排策略成效显著,通过对一些国家和地区温室气体减排路径的比较和分析,结果表明,废弃物领域成为他们减排效果最好的领域之一。废弃物领域协同减排具有空间大、难度小、成本低、效果好、技术成熟、手段多样的优点,应当成为我国实现温室气体减排的重要途径,为经济发展腾出合理的碳排放空间。