Trends in accidents,disasters and risk sources in Europe

Most of the adverse impacts on man and/or the environment result from routine human activities such as the process industry, electricity generation and use, transport and agriculture (hazards, i.e. sources of risk). Apart from such essentially technological hazards, possibly resulting in “accidents”, human health and the environment can also be affected by natural hazards, possibly resulting in “disasters”, such as earthquakes or floods. This paper examines current trends in the risk sources and occurrences of four classes of such types of undesired events, entailing largely involuntary risk (e.g. neither car-driving nor smoking):

• •major accidents at fixed installations in the process industry,
• •incidents/accidents at nuclear installations,
• •marine transport and offshore installation accidents,
• •disasters caused by natural hazards and their potential exacerbation by human activities.

It aims to provide an integrated overview of such events in Europe (≡ 15 EU Member States, 4 EFTA, 13 PHARE, 7 TACIS and 5 other South and South Eastern European countries) during the last decade, estimating and interpreting trends in the number of risk sources and accidental events. For each type of event, specific “accident” definitions are given, illustrating the differences in the perception of the respective risk.     

Management of change: Lessons learned from staff reductions in the chemical process industry

Increasing global competition and shareholder pressure are causing major changes in the chemical industry. Over the last decade companies have been continuously improving staff efficiency. As a result, most modern chemical plants can be regarded as lean. Plans to further reduce the number of staff have come under increasing criticism by personnel for safety reasons, and there is strong resistance to further staff reductions. It is clear that management and workers often have conflicting viewpoints for more than just safety reasons; technologists and safety engineers also have different points of view. This results in complex decision-making processes and makes it difficult to realize changes.What can the chemical industries learn from their experiences of decision-making and management with regard to staff reductions?In our exploratory research that used four case studies, we were able to identify and analyse three distinct patterns, with some variations:

• •Fragmented and incomplete decision-making.
• •Unintended and undesirable side effects generated by the decision-making and management of change.
• •Development of difficult dilemmas and ambiguous issues.

In this paper, we present a conceptual model that includes factors important for optimizing shifts. This model can serve as a common frame of reference for all agents involved in the decision-making and management process with regard to staffing.The present study was based on four cases, which means our findings serve to form rather than test hypotheses. At this early stage it is not yet possible to generalize from or validate the results, but we plan to go beyond these preliminary results in future research.     

Human factors integration – Bridging the gap between system designers and end-users: A case study

Within any high hazard industry such as chemical, oil and gas, rail or nuclear, it is necessary to involve system end-users within the design process if system design is to be optimised. To facilitate the identification and assessment of end user requirements it is necessary to integrate human factors (HF) into design from the start of the design lifecycle.During 2004, the author facilitated the integration of HF into a development project being implemented at a major gas processing facility on mainland Britain. The approach taken to HF integration on the project is commonly applied across the high hazard industries. This paper will provide information on this process and the benefits that this provided to the operator. Details will be provided on the approach taken in terms of:

• –Liaison between HF and other design disciplines.
• –Analysis undertaken and tools used.
• –HF topic areas covered.
• –Specific issues raised and how these were resolved.

It will demonstrate the advantage of the early integrated approach as compared to the later auditing or assurance approach sometimes taken in relation to HF.     

Investigations of flame front propagation between interconnected process vessels. Development of a new flame front propagation time prediction model

For the case where a dust or gas explosion can occur in a connected process vessel, it would be useful, for the purpose of designing protection measures and also for assessing the existing protection measures such as the correct placement, to have a tool to estimate the time for flame front propagation along the connecting pipe. Measurements of data from large-scale explosion tests in industrially relevant process vessels are reported. To determine the flame front propagation time, either a 1 m³ or a 4.25 m³ primary process vessel was connected via a pipe to a mechanically or pneumatically fed 9.4 m³ secondary silo. The explosion propagation started after ignition of a maize starch/air mixture in the primary vessel. No additional dust was present along the connecting pipe. Systematic investigations of the explosion data have shown a relationship between the flame front propagating time and the reduced explosion over-pressure of the primary explosion vessel for both vessel volumes. Furthermore, it was possible to validate this theory by using explosion data from previous investigations. Using the data, a flame front propagation time prediction model was developed which is applicable for:

• •gas and dust explosions up to a K value of 100 and 200 bar m s⁻¹, respectively, and a maximum reduced explosion over-pressure of up to 7 bar;
• •explosion vessel volumes of 0.5, 1, 4.25 and 9.4 m³, independent of whether they are closed or vented;
• •connecting pipes of pneumatic systems with diameters of 100–200 mm and an air velocity up to 30 m s⁻¹;
• •open ended pipes and pipes of interconnected vessels with a diameter equal to or greater than 100 mm;
• •lengths of connecting pipe of at least 2.5–7 m.

     

The oil and gas industry,the Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) and the management of emergencies - Changes necessary to achieve effective competence assessment of OIMs in controlling emergencies

Within the UK offshore oil and gas industry all installations require to be under the charge of a ‘competent’ installation manager in accordance with the Offshore Installations and Pipeline Works (Management and Administration) Regulations (MAR) 1995. The Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) is responsible for the safety of all persons onboard and within 500 m of an installation. Should an incident arise, the OIM performs one of the most critical roles within the offshore industry - management of the response to the emergency to mitigate and make safe the installation to secure a place of safety for persons onboard or organise their safe evacuation. The emergency response also includes limiting the loss of hydrocarbons to the environment.Research at the University of Aberdeen has identified 8 potential barriers to the effective competence assessment of OIMs in controlling emergencies. These underlying barriers are a consequence of current UK legislation and industry practices in the assessment of OIM competence and result from:

• •multiple definitions of competence,
• •competence assessment predominantly by observation,
• •lack of specific and unambiguous competence requirements for trainers and assessors,
• •complexity in UK legislation and complicated interpretation of terms,
• •lack of statutory competence requirements for OIMs in controlling emergencies,
• •lack of ownership of OIM competence and competence assessment,
• •complex interactions across multiple UK Government departments, and
• •lack of regulation and independent audit of the competence assessment process of OIMs in controlling emergencies.

The potential barriers were identified by qualitative analysis of key documentation, including legislation, using a critical hermeneutic approach. Hermeneutics has historically been used to analyse texts within the domains of theology, business and law. It arguably, however, represents a powerful approach to the study of documents within the engineering domain and the offshore oil and gas industry.This paper discusses the identified potential barriers, research conclusions and recommendations and represents the culmination of three years of doctoral research investigating the competence assessment of OIMs in controlling emergencies within the offshore oil and gas industry. The research, in particular, is relevant to Duty Holders within the offshore industry, safety engineers and UK Government departments.     

How the management aspects can affect the results of the QRA

This paper describes a procedure to include into the quantitative risk assessment (and namely in the construction and solution of the Fault Trees) the Safety Management System (SMS) aspects.The parameters used for probabilistic assessment of the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) of a Top Event are parameterised depending on:

• 1.a weight assigned to each SMS section with reference to the parameter;
• 2.a judgment about the correct application of the same SMS section.

Each probabilistic parameter (e.g. failure rates, mean time to repair, and so on) is thus modified using a mathematical algorithm, where an overall parameter including all the SMS sections influencing each single parameter is defined.The application of the procedure to a formaldehyde plant allowed the validation of the method and is here entirely reported.     

Problems with identifiying a standard procedure for determining KG values for flammable vapors

Assessing the effect of potential confined fuel–air explosions involves the examination of several essential parameters. These include the limits of combustion, maximum pressure and the deflagration index or K_G. Accurate measurement of these parameters can be influenced by numerous experimental conditions. This paper describes the sensitivity of one of these parameters (K_G) to several experimental influences. The deflagration index, K_G, is important since it is the main design parameter for explosion protection systems. These studies used a highly automated 20 liter combustion sphere, with a 10 mm fuse wire igniter. Our results for methane combustion show that the deflagration index, K_G, is very sensitive to

• •the gas composition; a 1% change in nitrogen composition changed the index value by 12 bar-m/s along the stoichiometric line. Our studies also identified some problems with mixing gases to the desired composition.
• •the moisture content of the gas, which can change the index by 13 bar-m/s.

For some combustion gas compositions, it was difficult to describe a K_G value due to significant fluctuations in the pressure vs time data. Finally, an extensive study of fuse wire igniter dynamics identified a means to provide a consistent energy delivery to the igniter. All of these problems contribute significantly to specifying a standard procedure for determining the deflagration index.     

The relationship between speeding behaviour (as measured by violation convictions) and crash involvement

While it seems rational to assume that crash involvement risk and outcome are influenced by the way one drives, nevertheless there is continuing controversy over the validity of certain categories of traffic law infractions as true measures of such behavior. Specifically, does the accumulation of tickets for speeding identify drivers as high risk for becoming culpably involved in speed-related crashes? Further, does a proclivity for exhibiting speeding behavior in the presence of police translate into a greater risk for involvement in high-severity collisions?The research reported in this paper attempted to address these issues. Several years of crash and conviction data were utilized to examine

• 1.(a) the risk of culpable crash involvement by severity of outcome during a 2-year period following 3 years of conviction record,
• 2.(b) the degree to which an increasing level of speeding convictions per driver relates to an increasing propensity for speed to be a factor in drivers' crash involvements.

The results of the research identified a clear distinction between the conviction categories of “exceeding the speed limit” and “excessive speed” in terms of these accident-violation relationships.     

Korean experience of process safety management (PSM) regulation for chemical industry

From the 1960s, Korean industries have been encouraged by the government to nurture heavy and chemical industry and to modernize the economics and industrial structures. The development of chemical industry particularly became the turning point in industrial development, and played a major role in the construction of a new industrialized country. However, the process systems in the chemical industry have become more complex and larger, and the inventories of dangerous chemicals that are produced or consumed have continuously increased. Therefore, the hazards from potential accidents such as fire and explosion or release of toxic chemicals have also increased. In fact, from the end of 1980s to the beginning of 1990s in Korea, a number of major industrial accidents such as ABS extruder explosion, TDI release and dryer explosion, etc. Occurred and caused many fatalities. As the chemical companies recognized the importance of preventing major hazards, PSM system, the prevention of major industrial accidents, was introduced in January 1995 by amending Industrial Safety and Health Act, and it has been enforced from January 1, 1996. According to the law, the business owner of a workplace with hazardous or dangerous equipment shall submit a process safety report to the Government to prevent any accidents, which could inflict an immediate damage on workers or on areas in the vicinity of the workplaces. As a result of PSM implementation for 19 years, chemical accident prevention system has been stabilized and various kinds of effectiveness and desirable customer satisfaction have been made.     

The effectiveness of process safety management (PSM) regulation for chemical industry in Korea

From the 1960s, Korean industries have been encouraged by the government to nurture heavy and chemical industry and to modernize the economics and industrial structures. The development of chemical industry particularly became the turning point in industrial development, and played a major role in the construction of a new industrialized country. However, the process systems in the chemical industry have become more complex and larger, and the inventories of dangerous chemicals that are produced or consumed have continuously increased. Therefore, the hazards from potential accidents such as fire and explosion or release of toxic chemicals have also increased. In fact, from the end of 1980s to the beginning of 1990s in Korea, a number of major industrial accidents such as ABS extruder explosion, TDI release and dryer explosion, etc. occurred and caused many fatalities. As the chemical companies recognized the importance of preventing major hazards, PSM system, the prevention of major industrial accidents, was introduced in January 1995 by amending Industrial Safety and Health Act, and it has been enforced from January 1, 1996. According to the law, the business owner of a workplace with hazardous or dangerous equipment shall submit a process safety report to the Government to prevent any accidents, which could inflict an immediate damage on workers or on areas in the vicinity of the workplaces. As a result of PSM implementation for 7 years, various kinds of effectiveness have been made. Accident rate including number of fatalities has been decreased, and productivity has been increased as well as product quality.     

Trends in chemical hazards in Japan

In the past, the chemical industry in Japan has been the cause of a number of major industrial accidents. Subsequent to each accident, specific lessons have been learned. These lessons learned have been implemented in terms of safety education of the employees and/or safety measures of the equipment and facilities resulting in a rapid decrease of corresponding accident frequencies. In this paper, we summarized both recent and past major accidents caused by chemical substances in fixed installations in Japan. Case studies show that runaway reactions are among the main causes of major accident occurrences in the chemical process industry in Japan. A recent fatal poisoning accident caused by H₂S gas generated during maintenance work again highlights the necessity of adequate safety management in a chemical factory. Therefore, even if hazard evaluation of chemical substances and chemical processes is necessary to prevent runaway reactions, human error is also an important factor contributing to reaction hazards [Wakakura, M. (1997) Human factor in chemical accidents, J. Safety Eng. High Press. Gas. Safety Inst. Japan, 34, 846].     

Chemical plant innovative safety investments decision-support methodology

Introduction

This article examines the extent to which investing in safety during the creation of a new chemical installation proves profitable.

Method

The authors propose a management supporting cost-benefit model that identifies and evaluates investments in safety within a chemical company. This innovative model differentiates between serious accidents and less serious accidents, thus providing an authentic image of prevention-related costs and benefits. In classic cost-benefit analyses, which do not make such differentiations, only a rudimentary image of potential profitability resulting from investments in safety is obtained.

Results

The resulting management conclusions that can be drawn from such classical analyses are of a very limited nature. The proposed model, however, is applied to a real case study and the proposed investments in safety at an appointed chemical installation are weighed against the estimated hypothetical benefits resulting from the preventive measures to be installed at the installation.

Conclusion

In the case-study carried out in question, it would appear that the proposed prevention investments are justified.

Impact on industry

Such an economic exercise may be very important to chemical corporations trying to (further) improve their safety investments.     

The impact of the BP Baker report

Introduction

This study examined the impact of the British Petroleum (BP) Baker Panel Report, reviewing the March 2005 BP-Texas City explosion, on the field of process safety.

Method

Three hundred eighty-four subscribers of a process safety listserv responded to a survey two years after the BP Baker Report was published.

Results

Results revealed respondents in the field of process safety are familiar with the BP Baker Report, feel it is important to the future safety of chemical processing, and believe that the findings are generalizable to other plants beyond BP-Texas City. Respondents indicated that few organizations have administered the publicly available BP Process Safety Culture Survey. Our results also showed that perceptions of contractors varied depending on whether respondents were part of processing organizations (internal perspective) or government or consulting agencies (external perspective).

Conclusions

This research provides some insight into the beliefs of chemical processing personnel regarding the transportability and generalizability of lessons learned from one organization to another.

Impact on Industry

This study has implications for both organizational scientists and engineers in that it reveals perceptions about the primary mechanism used to share lessons learned within one industry about one major catastrophe (i.e., investigation reports). This study provides preliminary information about the perceived impact of a report such as this one.     

Have government regulations improved workplace safety? : A test of the asynchronous regulatory effects in China's coal industry, 1995-2006

Problem

Empirical studies on the effectiveness of workplace safety regulations are inconclusive. This study hypothesizes that the asynchronous effects of safety regulations occur because regulations need time to become effective. Safety regulations will work initially by reducing the most serious accidents, and later by improving overall safety performance.

Method

The hypothesis is tested by studying a provincial level aggregate panel dataset for China's coal industry using two different models with different sets of dependent variables: a fixed-effects model on mortality rate, which is defined as fatalities per 1,000 employees; and a negative binominal model on the annual number (frequency) of disastrous accidents.

Results

Safety regulations can reduce the frequency of disastrous accidents, but have not reduced mortality rate, which represents overall safety performance.

Discussion and summary

Policy recommendations are made, including shifting production from small to large mines through industrial consolidation, improving the safety performance of large mines, addressing consequences of decentralization, and facilitating the implementation of regulations through carrying on institutional actions and supporting legislation.

Impact on industry

Until recently, about 4,000 coal miners perished annually in China, demonstrating that workplace safety in China's coal industry is an urgent and important issue. This research provides evidence that safety regulations have asynchronous effects and identifies the priorities in improving safety in China's current coal mining. This may assist the Chinese government to design more effective safety improvement policies and improve the effectiveness of safety regulations and safety performance.     

Differences in urban and rural accident characteristics and medical service utilization for traffic fatalities in less-motorized societies

Introduction

Fatalities from traffic accidents in less-motorized societies are an important global issue. We aimed to characterize the geographic differences of fatalities in such societies to facilitate the development of targeted interventions.

Method

This study linked police reports, hospital data, and vital registration data from Taiwan with special reference to accident factors in pre-hospital deaths and medical care in hospital deaths.

Results

A higher percentage of pre-hospital deaths were observed following rural as compared to urban traffic accidents. The deaths due to rural accidents can be attributed to lower use of restraints (i.e., helmets or seat belts), lower percentage of motorcyclists, and more highway accidents. A higher percentage of victims in rural accidents were transported to distant medical centers rather than to local hospitals.

Conclusion

Specific interventions, such as intelligent emergency medical systems, campaigns for helmets and seat belt usage, enforcement of helmets and seat belt use, and speed control measures should be targeted to rural areas.

Impact on industry

Cooperation between the vehicle industry and emergency medical providers in rural traffic accident rescue teams may decrease the numbers of deaths in these regions.     

The management of process control deployment using interactions in risks analyses

The purpose of this article is to present the concept of risk typology and its use in the management of process control deployment at a fab-wide level. This research provides a comprehensive method based on Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis to control failures that count throughout an organization.The method employed in this research uses a model of risk analysis and typology to operate a demonstration and to infer management practices.It results from this model: (1) the demonstration of equalities among some typologies and (2) a practical manner to use it to manage the deployment of controls and feedbacks throughout an entire manufacturing system. A four years observation of process control deployment underlines the potential of this method to remove silos-effects among risks analyses.To conclude, the concept of typology can sustain process control management and especially the deployment of controls and feedbacks. An industrial observation evaluates its potential of development.     

2011—2015年全国危险化学品事故分析

为了研究我国危险化学品事故发生的特点,采用数理统计方法对“十二五”期间我国危险化学品事故进行研究,对事故发生时间、区域、类别等进行分析。研究结果表明:2011—2015年我国危险化学品事故起数和死亡人数总体呈下降趋势,夏季和冬季是事故多发期,东部沿海地区是事故多发区。主要事故类别、环节、直接原因、经济类型分别是爆炸及中毒、窒息,生产环节,违反操作规程或劳动纪律,有限责任公司。危险化学品事故分布在采矿业、制造业等7大门类中,除制造业危险化学品事故频发外,科学研究和技术服务业的事故起数位居第二。将“十二五”期间与“十一五”期间的事故进行比较,发现我国危险化学品事故的总体特点基本一致,2006—2015年全国危险化学品事故起数和死亡人数年平均下降19.3%,18.3%,并提出相应建议。     

2016—2020年全国化工和危险化学品事故分析研究*

为分析“十三五”期间（2016—2020年）我国化工和危险化学品事故发生情况，统计“十三五”期间化工和危险化学品事故数量及死亡人数，从发生月份、发生区域、行业分布等方面分析事故特征，从事故类别、事故环节、关键作业等方面分析事故原因，总结2011—2020年我国化工和危险化学品事故发展趋势，按照全国4大经济区域研究2013—2020年事故特征。结果表明:“十三五”期间我国化工和危险化学品事故数量呈下降趋势，死亡人数出现波动，总体形势较为平稳。2011—2020年化工和危险化学品事故风险向中西部转移趋势明显，东北、西部地区事故死亡率普遍高于东部地区。研究结果可为相关行业从业者及监管部门提供决策参考。