基于计划行为理论的侵犯驾驶行为研究

从社会心理学的角度,通过问卷调查的方式,对驾驶员侵犯驾驶行为的产生动机进行分析;基于计划行为理论,研究构建了能揭示驾驶态度与行为关系的理论模型,并得出驾驶员对侵犯驾驶行为的态度、主观标准、知觉行为可控性等心理因素,通过行为意向的中介作用,对驾驶员实施侵犯驾驶行为具有预测作用的结论。同时,提出了从态度改变、建立社会支持体系、提高驾驶员的自我能力评估等方面入手对驾驶员侵犯驾驶行为进行矫正的策略。     

主成分分析法和德尔菲结合法的影响驾驶行为指标构建

为了构建影响驾驶行为的指标,统计了影响驾驶行为的41项因素。针对这些因素,制作了调查问卷,并对各个行业的120名驾驶员发放问卷。对收回的有效问卷结果进行统计,并采用主成分分析法和模糊德尔菲与灰色德尔菲法结合两种方法对问卷结果进行分析。主成分分析与德尔菲结合法都能有效地将驾驶员观点定量化,进而得到对驾驶员行为相对影响较大的指标。比较两种方法的分析结果,运用交叉法得到了19个主要影响驾驶行为的指标。     

动态监控数据驱动的危险货物运输驾驶员风险评估

为合理评估危险货物运输驾驶员驾驶过程中的风险驾驶行为,辨别影响危险货物运输事故风险的显著因素,运用探索性因子分析与Logistic回归相结合的方法,可以避免数据多重共线性对分析结果的影响。首先基于车辆联网联控系统中记录的动态违规预警数据,利用探索性因子分析方法提取危险货物运输驾驶员高风险驾驶行为隐性因子;其次结合驾驶员事故数据,筛选与危险货物运输事故显著相关的高风险驾驶行为;最后通过建立Logistic回归模型预测驾驶员卷入危险货物运输事故的风险。结果表明,驾驶员的风险驾驶行为可归类为碰撞倾向驾驶行为、鲁莽驾驶行为、驾驶分神和驾驶疲劳4种,驾驶员具有不同的驾驶风险倾向,同时碰撞倾向驾驶行为、驾驶分神行为和驾驶疲劳状态指标是影响危险货物运输事故的显著因素,可以建立事故预测模型。研究结果为评估危险货物运输驾驶员风险提供了理论依据。     

驾驶员自身因素对限速标志识别能力的影响分析

以研究城市道路限速标志下驾驶行为的变化为主要目的,基于认知心理学知识,采用实地观测和问卷调查等手段,研究了驾驶员经过限速标志时的心理及反应过程。依据认知工效学中的注意和记忆等机制对驾驶员的限速标志认知过程进行了解析;从驾驶员自身角度分析了影响驾驶员识别限速标志的主要因素;利用因子分析方法对调查数据和调查项目进行统计分析;最终提取了影响驾驶员识别限速标志的6个自身因素为主因子,作为限速标志对驾驶行为影响较大的因素。该研究结果可为城市道路限速标志的设计与设置提供科学依据。     

老年驾驶员跟驰行为及影响因素研究

为提高老龄化背景下道路交通的安全性,基于驾驶模拟试验数据,分析老年驾驶员的跟驰行为特征,并深入研究驾驶员跟驰行为的影响因素。选取车头间距、速度和反应时间作为驾驶员跟驰行为的表征指标,通过对比老年驾驶员与年轻驾驶员跟驰行为的差异,分析老年驾驶员的驾驶特征;进一步采用Pearson相关系数法研究跟驰行为与驾驶员年龄、驾驶负荷和驾驶偏好的关系。研究结果表明:相较于年轻驾驶员,老年驾驶员对前车紧急制动行为的反应时间较长,行驶速度的变化较大,且保持较大的车头间距。驾驶员的跟驰行为与年龄、驾驶负荷得分以及驾驶偏好显著相关。     

恐惧诉求对职业驾驶员安全驾驶态度和行为意向的影响

研究以EPPM模型作为理论框架,探讨恐惧诉求对危险驾驶行为(超速和不系安全带)态度和行为意向的作用。54名职业驾驶员在观看交通安全恐惧诉求录像后,完成安全驾驶行为问卷。回归分析表明恐惧诉求的交通事故录像能够改变驾驶员对超速及不系安全带驾驶的态度和行为意向,但作用不完全一致。恐惧情绪唤起通过恐惧情感所引发的威胁评估过程中介对不超速行为意向的影响。最后,对研究的局限和未来的研究进行讨论。     

驾驶习惯与驾驶安全

人的生命运动和社会生活的正常运转,都遵循一定的客观发展规律,这些规律自然而然地为人类和社会所逐步接受,并在一定程度上制约人的行为。比如驾驶习惯就是驾驶员在长时间的驾驶活动中逐渐养成的、一时不容易改变的驾驶行为或驾驶倾向。驾驶行为的累积就养成了驾驶习惯,而驾驶习惯往往决定了驾驶员的命运。俗语说得好：“习惯若不是最好的仆人,就是最差的主人”。对此,并非每一个机动车驾驶员都能深刻认识到这一点。     

基于驾驶操作行为的驾驶员疲劳状态识别模型研究

以驾驶疲劳状态监测为研究对象,介绍现有几种疲劳检测方法及其优缺点,提出把驾驶行为操作和驾驶员生理指标相结合建立疲劳识别模型的思想。通过大量模拟器驾驶实验,建立驾驶操作和驾驶员生理指标之间的关系模型,并运用最小二乘法对数学模型进行了参数识别。利用驾驶员生理指标能较好判别驾驶员状态特性的特点,找出驾驶操作行为和驾驶状态之间的关系。研究结果有助于建立驾驶操作行为和驾驶员疲劳状态之间的关系模型。     

城市道路下分心行为对驾驶员驾驶绩效的影响

为探究城市道路条件下常见驾驶分心行为对驾驶绩效的影响,以16名青年志愿者为被试,开展实车驾驶试验,测量车辆纵向和横向行驶参数,对比分析正常驾驶和分心驾驶状态下的驾驶绩效,并探讨驾驶经验的影响。结果表明：3种分心行为均使横向加速度标准差和纵向加速度标准差增加,而使速度均值降低,说明驾驶员通过速度和转向控制补偿分心状态下的驾驶绩效;交谈对速度均值和纵向加速度均值、阅读广告对速度标准差和横向加速度均值具有显著性影响(p<0.05);接听电话时,经验驾驶员速度标准差明显高于新手(p=0.021);接听电话和阅读广告次任务下,经验驾驶员的横向加速度均值均明显较高(p=0.003,p=0.004),说明经验丰富的驾驶员受分心行为的影响程度更低。     

机动车绿灯倒计时对交叉口交通安全的影响研究

在总结国内外研究的基础上,通过问卷调查、现场观测等方法对机动车绿灯倒计时对我国驾驶员的心理及驾驶行为进行调查,解析机动车绿灯倒计时信号对驾驶员心理与驾驶行为的影响机理,研究结果显示机动车绿灯倒计时既不利于交叉口的交通安全,又降低了通行效率,因此得出应谨慎使用机动车绿灯倒计时的结论。同时建议采取道路交通安全法中对黄灯的含义进行修改,并在闯红灯抓拍系统中增设闯黄灯超速自动抓拍功能,以减少信号过渡期间超速抢灯现象的发生,保障交叉口的交通安全。     

Survival risk factors for fatal injured car and motorcycle drivers in single alcohol-related and alcohol-unrelated vehicle crashes

Introduction

A high percentage of drivers who die as a result of a single vehicle crash are under the influence of alcohol. We aimed to better understand the prevalence of these fatalities and the ratio of death to injuries based on various risk factors. We focused on alcohol-related and -unrelated single-vehicle crashes to investigate the influence of such risk factors on the time until death for car and motorcycle drivers.

Methods

We combined data from national police reports and a vital registration database in Taiwan. Survival analysis using Cox regression models was used to identify the risk factors of time until death.

Results

Overall, nearly 60% of car driver fatalities and 40% of motorcycle driver fatalities involved the consumption of alcohol. Survival analysis of single-vehicle crashes suggested that the traffic island separation between a car moving at a higher speed and motorcycle traffic resulted in a higher risk of death over time for motorcycle drivers who consumed alcohol. The factors attributed to a higher risk of death over time for motorcycle drivers were older age, crashing into trees, night-time driving, driving on curved roads, and driving on local roads. Driving without restraints and driving on roads with higher speed limits attributed to a higher risk of death over time for car drivers.

Conclusions

The factors that influence the risk of death over time in a motor-vehicle accident involving alcohol depended on different elements, which should each be considered when attempting to reduce this risk.

Impact on Industry

More efforts should be made to investigate the various risk factors in areas with large motorcycle populations.     

A multinomial logit model of motorcycle crash severity at Australian intersections

Introduction: Motorcyclists are exposed to more fatalities and severe injuries per mile of travel as compared to other vehicle drivers. Moreover, crashes that take place at intersections are more likely to result in serious or fatal injuries as compared to those that occur at non-intersections. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the contributing factors to motorcycle crash severity at intersections. Method: A data set of 7,714 motorcycle crashes at intersections in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006–2018. The multinomial logit model was used for evaluating the motorcycle crashes. The severity of motorcycle crashes was divided into three categories: minor injury, serious injury and fatal injury. The risk factors consisted of four major categories: motorcyclist characteristics, environmental characteristics, intersection characteristics and crash characteristics. Results: The results of the model demonstrated that certain factors increased the probability of fatal injuries. These factors were: motorcyclists aged over 59 years, weekend crashes, midnight/early morning crashes, morning rush hours crashes, multiple vehicles involved in the crash, t-intersections, crashes in towns, crashes in rural areas, stop or give-way intersections, roundabouts, and uncontrolled intersections. By contrast, factors such as female motorcyclists, snowy or stormy or foggy weather, rainy weather, evening rush hours crashes, and unpaved roads reduced the probability of fatal injuries. Practical Applications: The results from our study demonstrated that certain treatment measures for t-intersections may reduce the probability of fatal injuries. An effective way for improving the safety of stop or give-way intersections and uncontrolled intersections could be to convert them to all-way stop controls. Further, it is recommended to educate the older riders that with ageing, there are physiological changes that occur within the body which can increase both crash likelihood and injury severity.     

Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

A multinomial logit analysis of factors associated with severity of motorcycle crashes in Ghana

Objective: The objective of this study was to explore the factors affecting motorcycle crash severity in Ghana.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of motorcycle crash data between 2011 and 2015 was conducted using a motorcycle crash data set extracted from the National Road Traffic Crash Database at the Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) in Ghana. Injury severity was classified into 4 categories: Fatal, hospitalized, injured, and damage only. A multinomial logit modeling framework was used to identify the possible determinants of motorcycle crash severity.

Results: During the study period, a total of 8,516 motorcycle crashes were recorded, of which 22.9% were classified as fatal, 42.1% were classified as hospitalized injuries, 29.4% were classified as slight injuries, and 5.6% were classified as damage-only crashes. The estimation results indicate that the following factors increase the probability of fatal injuries: At a junction; weekend; signage; poor road shoulder; village settlement; tarred and good road surface; and collision between motorcycle and heavy goods vehicle (HGV). Motorcycle crashes occurring during the daytime and on the weekend increases the probability of hospitalized injury. The results also suggest that motorcycle crashes occurring during the daytime, in curves or inclined portions of roads, or in unclear weather conditions decrease the probability of fatal injury.

Conclusions: This study provides further empirical evidence to support motorcycle crash modeling research, which is lacking in developing countries. The ability to understand the various factors that influence motorcycle crash severity is a step forward in providing an appropriate basis upon which informed motorcycle crash policies can be developed. Particular attention should be given to the provision of road signage at junctions and speed humps and controlling traffic during the weekend. In addition, road maintenance should be carried out periodically to address motorcycle safety in Ghana.     

The role of sales of new motorcycles in a recent increase in motorcycle mortality rates

INTRODUCTION: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has reported that mortality rates from crashes among motorcycle riders in the United States increased from 21.0 per 100 million motorcycle miles traveled in 1997 to 38.4 per 100 million motorcycle miles traveled in 2003. At the same time, annual domestic sales of new, on-road motorcycles increased from 247,000 in 1997 to 648,000 in 2003. METHOD: This study used data from the NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System and annual sales figures for on-road motorcycles to determine if newer motorcycles were more likely to be involved in fatal crashes and if fatal crashes involving newer motorcycles could account for the mortality increase after 1997. RESULTS: Mortality rates were 7.9, 8.1, 5.4, and 2.9 per 10,000 motorcycles sold for motorcycles <1, 1-3, 4-6, and 7-11 years old, respectively, from 1994 to 2003. Assuming complete registration, the number of motorcycles sold during the 2000-2003 time period accounted for 42.4% of the total number of motorcycles registered in 2003. Motorcycles sold during 2000-2003 were associated with 52.5% of all motorcycle deaths in 2003. The increase in the number of deaths associated with motorcycles less than four years old between 1997 and 2003 accounted for 78.1% of the total increase in motorcyclist deaths over this time period. CONCLUSIONS: Two possible explanations for the association between high sales volumes and mortality rates are: (a) increased exposure from more extensive use of motorcycles when they are new; and (b) inexperience with motorcycle riding or with specific motorcycles. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study suggests that the deaths of growing numbers of motorcyclists are a consequence of the financial success of the motorcycle industry.     

A case study analysis to examine motorcycle crashes in Bogota,Colombia

IntroductionContributory factors to motorcycle crashes vary among populations depending on several aspects such as the users' profiles, the composition and density of traffic, and the infrastructure features. A better understanding of local motorcycle crashes can be reached in those places where a comprehensive analysis is performed. This paper presents the results obtained from a case study analysis of 400 police records of accidents involving motorcycles in Bogota.MethodTo achieve a deeper level of understanding of how these accidents occur, we propose a systemic approach that uses available crash data. The methodology is inspired by accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for analysis developed in France.ResultsWhen grouping cases we identified three categories: solo motorcycle accidents, motorcyclist and pedestrian accidents, and accidents involving a motorcycle and another vehicle. Within these categories we undertook in-depth analyses of 32 groups of accidents obtaining valuable information to better comprehend motorcyclists' road crashes in a local context. Recurrent contributory factors in the groups of accidents include: inexperienced motorcyclists, wide urban roads that incite speeding and risky overtaking maneuvers, flowing urban roads that encourage high speed and increased interaction between vehicles, and lack of infrastructure maintenance.Practical ApplicationsThe results obtained are a valuable asset to define measures that will be conveniently adapted to the group of accident on which we want to act. The methodology exposed in this paper is applicable to the study of road crashes that involve all types of actors, not only the motorcyclists, and in contexts different than those presented in Bogota.     

Severity of motorcycle crashes in Dar es Salaam,Tanzania

Objective: Motorcycles are a common mode of transportation in low- and middle-income countries. Tanzania, in particular, has experienced an increased use of motorcycles in the last decade. In Dar es Salaam, motorcycles provide door-to-door travel and often operate where more conventional services are uneconomical or physically impossible to maneuver. Although motorcycles play a crucial role in improving mobility in the city, they have several safety issues. This study focuses on identifying factors influencing the severity of motorcycle crashes.

Method: A multinomial logit analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing the severity of motorcycle crashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The severity categories were fatal, severe injury, minor injury, and property damage only (PDO). The analysis was based on a total of 784 motorcycle crashes that occurred from 2013 to 2016.

Results: The following factors were found to increase the probability of a fatality: Speeding, driving under the influence, head-on impact, presence of horizontal curves, reckless riding, off-peak hours, violations, and riding without a helmet. The results indicate that crashes occurring on weekdays, during peak hours, at intersections, involving a rear-end impact, in daylight, on street roads, and under clear weather conditions decrease the probability of a fatality. However, minor injury and PDO crashes were found to be associated with crashes occurring during peak hours, at intersections, and on street roads, as well as failure to yield right-of-way.

Conclusions: Several countermeasures are recommended based on the study findings. The recommended countermeasures focus on the holistic safety improvement strategies constituting the three Es of highway safety, namely, engineering, education, and enforcement.     

Factors associated with motorcycle traffic crash fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel

Objective: Research on factors associated with motorcycle fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel is limited. This analysis describes motorcycle crash–related injuries from 1995 through 2014 and assesses the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of fatal injury among active duty U.S. Army motorcycle operators involved in a traffic crash, controlling for other factors shown to be potentially associated with fatality in this population.

Methods: Demographics, crash information, and injury data were obtained from safety reports maintained in the Army Safety Management Information System. Traffic crashes were defined as crashes occurring on a paved public or private roadway or parking area, including those on a U.S. Army installation. Analysis was limited to motorcycle operators. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) from a multivariable analysis estimated the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of a fatal injury given a crash occurred, controlling for operator and crash characteristics.

Results: Of the 2,852 motorcycle traffic crashes, most involved men (97%), operators aged 20–29 years of age (60%), and operators who wore helmets (95%) and did not use alcohol (92%). Two thirds of reported crashes resulted in injuries requiring a lost workday; 17% resulted in fatality. Controlling for operator and crash characteristics, motorcycle traffic crashes involving operators who had used alcohol had a 3.1 times higher odds of fatality than those who did not use alcohol (OR =3.14; 95% CI, 2.17–4.53). Operators who did not wear a helmet had 1.9 times higher odds of fatality than those who did wear a helmet (OR =1.89; 95% CI, 1.24–2.89).

Conclusions: Among U.S. Army motorcycle operators, alcohol use and not wearing a helmet increased the odds of fatality, given that a crash occurred, and additional modifiable risk factors were identified. Results will help inform U.S. Army motorcycle policies and training.     

Risk factors for motorcycle loss-of-control crashes

Objective: The present article identifies and assesses the effect of critical factors on the risk of motorcycle loss-of-control (LOC) crashes.

Method: Data come from a French project on road crashes, which include all fatal road crashes and a random sample of 1/20th of nonfatal crashes in France in 2011, based on police reports. A case–control study was carried out on a sample of 903 crashes for 444 LOC motorcycle riders (case) and 470 non-LOC and nonresponsible motorcycle riders (control). The sample was weighted due to the randomization of nonfatal crashes. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation.

Results: Road alignment and surface conditions, human factors, and motorcycle type played important roles in motorcycle LOC crashes. Riding in a curve was associated with a 3-fold greater risk of losing control of motorcycle than riding in a straight line. Poor road adhesion significantly increased the risk of losing control; the risk increased more than 20-fold when deteriorated road adhesion was encountered unexpectedly, due to loose gravel, ice, oil, bumps, road marking, metal plates, etc. For motorcyclists, riding with a positive blood alcohol concentration (over or equal to the legal limit of 0.5 g/L) was very dangerous, often resulting in losing control. The risk of LOC crash varied for different types of motorcycle: Riders of roadsters and sports bikes were more likely to have an LOC crash greater than that of riders of basic or touring motorcycles. In addition, LOC risk increased with speed; a model using the square of the traveling speed showed better fit than one using speed itself.

Conclusion: The LOC crash factors related to riders, vehicles, and road infrastructure identified here were expected but were rarely identified and taken simultaneously into account in previous studies. They could be targeted by countermeasures to improve motorcyclist safety.