Integral Model for Turbulent Buoyant Jets in Unbounded Stratified Flows Part 2: Plane Jet Dynamics Resulting from Multiport Diffuser Jets

An integral model for the plane buoyant jet dynamics resulting from the interaction of multiple buoyant jet effluxes spaced along a diffuser line is considered as an extension of the round jet formulation that was proposed in Part I. The receiving fluid is given by an unbounded ambient environment with uniform density or stable density stratification and under stagnant or steady sheared current conditions. Applications for this situation are primarily for submerged multiport diffusers for discharges of liquid effluents into ambient water bodies, but also for multiple cooling tower plumes and building air-conditioning. The CorJet model formulation describes the conservation of mass, momentum, buoyancy and scalar quantities in the turbulent jet flow in the plane jet geometry. It employs an entrainment closure approach that distinguishes between the separate contributions of transverse shear and of internal instability mechanisms, and contains a quadratic law turbulent pressure force mechanism. But the model formulation also includes several significant three-dimensional effects that distinguish actual diffuser installations in the water environment. These relate to local merging processes from the individual multiple jets, to overall finite length effects affecting the plume geometry, and to bottom proximity effects given by a “leakage factor” that measures the combined affect of port height and spacing in allowing the ambient flow to pass through the diffuser line in order to provide sufficient entrainment flow for the mixing downstream from the diffuser. The model is validated in several stages: First, comparison with experimental data for the asymptotic, self-similar stages of plane buoyant jet flows, i.e. the plane pure jet, the pure plume, the pure wake, the advected line puff, and the advected line thermal, support the choice of the turbulent closure coefficients contained in the entrainment formulation. Second, comparison with data for many types of non-equilibrium flows with a plane geometry support the proposed functional form of the entrainment relationship, and also the role of the pressure force in the jet deflection dynamics. Third, the observed behavior of the merging process from different types of multiport diffuser discharges in both stagnant and flowing ambient conditions and with stratification appears well predicted with the CorJet formulation. Fourth, a number of spatial limits of applicability, relating to terminal layer formation in stratification or transition to passive diffusion in a turbulent ambient shear flow, have been proposed. In sum, the CorJet integral model appears to provide a mechanistically sound, accurate and reliable representation of complex buoyant jet mixing processes, provided the condition of an unbounded receiving fluid is satisfied.     

Influence of Downstream Control and Limited Depth on Flow Hydrodynamics of Impinging Buoyant Jets

Much study has been performed on the mixing properties of submerged, turbulent buoyant jets. It is safe to say that the problem of estimating dilution rates in vertical buoyant jets spreading in an `infinitely deep' ambient water has been more than adequately resolved by previous researchers. However, the majority of environmental applications involve discharges into ambient waters of finite depths in which a bounding surface serves to re-direct the impinging buoyant jet horizontally into a radial spreading layer. Previous research indicates that this impinging jet undergoes additional mixing before buoyancy stabilizes vertical mixing and confines the spreading layer to the vicinity of the bounding surface. Unfortunately, the conceptualization and subsequent mathematical modeling of this additional mixing phenomenon is surrounded by considerable amount of disagreement between researchers. The purpose of this study is to provide, by means of velocity and concentration profile measurements, independent experimental evidence for the existence of a critical flow state immediately downstream of the active mixing zone in the horizontally flowing, radial flow that forms after impingement. It is further shown that this critical flow state must be expressed in terms of a composite Froude Number that takes into account the possibility of a non-zero exchange layer flow. Finally, the influence of the presence of a sill-like topographic downstream control on the criticality of the radial flow immediately downstream of the active mixing zone is also investigated.     

Stability and Mixing of a Vertical Axisymmetric Buoyant Jet in Shallow Water

The stability, mixing and effect of downstream control on axisymmetric turbulent buoyant jets discharging vertically into shallow stagnant water is studied using 3D Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) combined with a buoyancy-extended k –ε model. The steady axisymmetric turbulent flow, temperature (or tracer concentration) and turbulence fields are computed using the finite volume method on a high resolution grid. The numerical predictions demonstrate two generic flow patterns for different turbulent heated jet discharges and environmental parameters (i) a stable buoyant discharge with the mixed fluid leaving the vertical jet region in a surface warm water layer; and (ii) an unstable buoyant discharge with flow recirculation and re-entrainment of heated water. A stratified counterflow region always appears in the far-field for both stable and unstable buoyant discharges. Provided that the domain radius L exceeds about 6H, the near field interaction and hence discharge stability is governed chiefly by the jet momentum length scale to depth ratio l_M/H, regardless of downstream control. The near field jet stability criterion is determined to be l_M/H = 3.5. A radial internal hydraulic jump always exists beyond the surface impingement region, with a 3- to 6-fold increase in dilution across the jump compared with vertical buoyant jet mixing. The predicted stability category, velocity and temperature/concentration fields are well-supported by experiments of all previous investigators.     

Integral Model for Turbulent Buoyant Jets in Unbounded Stratified Flows. Part I: Single Round Jet

The mechanics of buoyant jet flows issuing with a general three-dimensional geometry into an unbounded ambient environment with uniform density or stable density stratification and under stagnant or steady sheared current conditions is investigated. An integral model is formulated for the conservation of mass, momentum, buoyancy and scalar quantities in the turbulent jet flow. The model employs an entrainment closure approach that distinguishes between the separate contributions of transverse shear (leading to jet, plume, or wake internal flow dynamics) and of azimuthal shear mechanisms (leading to advected momentum puff or thermal flow dynamics), respectively. Furthermore, it contains a quadratic law turbulent drag force mechanism as suggested by a number of recent detailed experimental investigations on the dynamics of transverse jets into crossflow. The model is validated in several stages: First, comparison with basic experimental data for the five asymptotic, self-similar stages of buoyant jet flows, i.e., the pure jet, the pure plume, the pure wake, the advected line puff, and the advected line thermal, support the choice and magnitude of the turbulent closure coefficients contained in the entrainment formulation. Second, comparison with many types of non-equilibrium flows support the proposed transition function within the entrainment relationship, and also the role of the drag force in the jet deflection dynamics. Third, a number of spatial limits of applicability have been proposed beyond which the integral model necessarily becomes invalid due to its parabolic formulation. These conditions, often related to the breakdown of the boundary layer nature of the flow, describe features such as terminal layer formation in stratification, upstream penetration in jets opposing a current, or transition to passive diffusion in a turbulent ambient shear flow. Based on all these comparisons, that include parameters such as trajectories, centerline velocities, concentrations and dilutions, the model appears to provide an accurate and reliable representation of buoyant jet physics under highly general flow conditions.     

Behavior of a Small Pulsed River Plume in a Strong Tidal Cross-Flow in the Akashi Strait

We carried out a field study of a small river plume emptying into Osaka Bay near the Akashi Strait in western Japan, to understand the fate of its urban-runoff-laden waters. As the river is weak compared to tidal currents, we find that the behavior of the plume is strongly influenced by phasing between tidal stage and currents (a westward-traveling progressive tidal wave). When the tidal stage rises, sea water floods up the river, and concentrated river effluent cannot be seen in Osaka Bay. During most of the river’s ebb, a topographic eddy transports river effluent towards the energetic Akashi Strait, while strong vertical shear in the tidal flow mixes the effluent with seawater. However, there is a short interval of time during which the direction of tidal flow in the Strait changes direction and the magnitude of the current is weak. At this time, shear is weak enough to allow a stratified plume of concentrated river water to form, and this plume is driven offshore, and into Osaka Bay, by baroclinic circulation. A sewage outfall, which is located very close to the river mouth, is subjected to these same conditions and therefore exhibits similar behavior. Understanding the relation between tidal phase and plume behavior will be useful to Kobe City, as well as other cities in a similar environment, for minimizing the environmental effects of their wastewater and non-point-source runoff.     

Modelling the motion of an internal solitary wave over a bottom ridge in a stratified fluid

A series of laboratory experiments has been carried out to investigate the passage of an internal solitary wave of depression over a bottom ridge, in a two-layer fluid system for which the upper and lower layer is linearly-stratified and homogeneous respectively. Density, velocity and vorticity fields induced by the wave propagation over the ridge have been measured simultaneously at three locations, namely upstream, downstream and over the ridge crest, for a wide range of model parameters. Results are presented to show that wave breaking may occur for a sufficiently large wave amplitude and a strong ridge blockage factor, with accompanying mixing and overturning. Density field data are presented (i) to illustrate the overturning and mixing processes that accompany the wave breaking and (ii) to quantify the degree of mixing in terms of the wave and ridge parameters. For weak encounters, good agreement is obtained between the laboratory experimental results (velocity and vorticity fields induced by the wave propagation) and the predictions of a recently-developed fully nonlinear theory. Discrepancies between theory and experiment are discussed for cases in which breaking and mixing occur.     

Stratification and Circulation in a Shallow Turbid Waterbody

Shallow waterbodies are often assumed to be well mixed in the vertical. However, when they are characterised by high turbidity levels, absoption of solar heating within a relatively thin surface layer can produce thermal stratification. Results from an intensive monitoring program have been combined with three-dimensional circulation modelling to examine the diurnal stratification cycles in a small turbid waterbody. The waterbody, known as Rushy Billabong, is located in southeastern Australia and its high turbidity coupled with forcing by wind and solar radiation resulted in regular diurnal cycles of stratification and overturning. Under conditions of light wind and high solar radiation, the model results were generally consistent with the observed temperature field. However, under stronger winds, preferential cooling and sinking of shallow water around the edge of the lake began to contribute significantly to the interior stratification. Model estimates then became more sensitive to the detailed bathymetry and the choice of turbulence parameterisation. The level of stratification is also shown to influence the circulation in the billabong by trapping the wind-driven flow near the surface. Insights provided by the observations and modelling may have broader implications for the management of small turbid systems such as settling ponds, aquaculture ponds, and some natural wetlands.     

Turbulence Perturbations in the Neutrally Stratified Surface Layer due to the Interaction of a Katabatic Flow with a Steep Ridge

Turbulence measurements were performed in Antarctica, on the Nansen Ice Sheet, dominated by westerly katabatic winds. The measurements were taken at two sites aligned with the katabatic wind fall-line. The measuring stations were located in the middle of a wide, flat iced area at a distance of 14 km from the base of a sloping surface and at the top of a steep ridge (Inexpressible Island). The aim was to investigate the perturbation of turbulence close to the ground generated by the interaction of the flow with the ridge. We present an analysis comparing the data measured at the upstream unperturbed station with those at the top of the obstacle. Moments and spectra of velocity components have been calculated for almost steady periods. The topography and roughness change produce a combined effect on the flow acceleration (of the opposite sign) and on the turbulent stresses (of the same sign). Spectra of velocity components measured at the top of the ridge and scaled by unperturbed quantities evidence an increment of energy in the high frequency subrange with respect to the up-stream flow. Moreover, the horizontal velocity components display a shift in turbulence maximum towards higher frequencies. The vertical velocity spectrum exhibits an energy increment at low frequencies with respect to the upstream spectrum.     

Analysis of spatial and temporal patterns in a large reservoir using water quality and hydrodynamic modeling

Effective management of reservoir water resources demands a good command of ecological processes in the waterbody. In this work the three-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model RMA10 was coupled to an eutrophication model. The models were used together with a methodology for loads estimation to foster the understanding of such processes in the largest reservoir in Western Europe—the Alqueva. Nutrient enrichment and eutrophication are water quality concerns in this man-made impoundment. A total phosphorus and nitrogen loads quantification methodology was developed to estimate the inputs in the reservoir, using point and non-point source data.Field data (including water temperature, wind, water elevation, chlorophyll-a, nutrient concentration and dissolved oxygen) and estimated loads were used as forcing for simulations.The analysis of the modeling results shows that spatial and temporal distributions for water temperature, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen and nutrients are consistent with measured in situ data.Modeling results allowed the identification of likely key impact factors on the water quality of the Alqueva reservoir. It is shown that the particular geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of the reservoir together with local climate features are responsible for the existence of distinct ecological regions within the reservoir.     

Nitrifying population dynamics in a redox stratified membrane biofilm reactor (RSMBR) for treating ammonium-rich wastewater

Nitrogen removal performance and nitrifying population dynamics were investigated in a redox stratified membrane biofilm reactor (RSMBR) under oxygen limited condition to treat ammonium-rich wastewater. When the NH4+-N loading rate increased from 11.1±1.0 to 37.2±3.2 gNH4+-N·m-2·d-1, the nitrogen removal in the RSMBR system increased from 18.0±9.6 mgN·d^-1 to 128.9±61.7 mgN·d^-1. Shortcut nitrogen removal was achieved with nitrite accumulation of about 22.3±5.3 mgNO2--N·L-1. Confocal micrographs showed the stratified distributions of nitrifiers and denitrifiers in the membrane aerated biofilms (MABs) at day 120, i.e., ammonia and nitrite oxidizing bacteria (AOB and NOB) were dominant in the region adjacent to the membrane, while heterotrophic bacteria propagated at the top of the biofilm. Real-time qPCR results showed that the abundance of amoA gene was two orders of magnitude higher than the abundance of nxrA gene in the MABs. However, the nxrA gene was always detected during the operation time, which indicates the difficulty of complete washout of NOB in MABs. The growth of heterotrophic bacteria compromised the dominance of nitrifiers in biofilm communities, but it enhanced the denitrification performance of the RSMBR system. Applying a high ammonia loading together with oxygen limitation was found to be an effective way to start nitrite accumulation in MABs, but other approaches were needed to sustain or improve the extent of nitritation in nitrogen conversion in MABs.     

Applying the discrete vortex method in environmental fluid mechanics: A study of the time-averaged near wake behind a circular cylinder

This work illustrates the discrete vortex method (DVM) as a tool for simulating environmental fluid mechanics problems involving transport in the wake of a bluff body. The DVM was used to model both the long-time-averaged and instantaneous features of flow past a circular cylinder. Simulations were performed for Re = 140, 000. Verification testing was accomplished by refining time-step and vortex element circulation. The DVM was validated through comparison with experimental data from Cantwell and Coles. Verification testing demonstrated that, while global convergence is not possible for an unsteady flow simulation, it is possible to have convergence to physical results. This verification entails identifying a range of parameters in which a flow containing coherent structures and matching physical conditions is attainable. Validation tests demonstrated excellent agreement between experimental and simulated results for time-averaged velocity and shear stress profiles, as well as Strouhal number.     

The effect of texture and irrigation on the soil moisture vertical-temporal variability in an urban artificial landscape: a case study of Olympic Forest Park in Beijing

Soil moisture variability in natural landscapes has been widely studied; however, less attention has been paid to its variability in the urban landscapes with respect to the possible influence of texture stratification and irrigation management. Therefore, a case study was carried out in the Beijing Olympic Forest Park to continuously monitor the soil in three typical profiles from 26 April to 11 November 2010. The texture stratification significantly affected the vertical distribution of moisture in the non-irrigated profile where moisture was mostly below field capacity. In the profile where irrigation was sufficient to maintain moisture above field capacity, gravity flow led to increased moisture with depth and thus eliminated the influence of texture. In the non-irrigated sites, the upper layer (above 80 cm) exhibited long-term moisture persistence with the time scale approximating the average rainfall interval. However, a coarse-textured layer weakened the influence of rainfall, and a fine-textured layer weakened the influence of evapotranspiration, both of which resulted in random noise-like moisture series in the deeper layers. At the irrigated site, frequent irrigation neutralized the influence of evapotranspiration in the upper layer (above 60 cm) and overshadowed the influence of rainfall in the deeper layer. As a result, the moisture level in the upper layer also behaved as a random noise-like series; whereas due to deep transpiration, the moisture of the deep layer had a persistence time-scale longer than a month, consistent with characteristic time-scales found for deep transpiration.     

Density and extra-pair fertilizations in birds: a comparative analysis

Møller and Birkhead (1992, 1993) reported that extra-pair copulations (EPCs) occur more frequently in colonial than dispersed nesting birds. We comprehensively reviewed published data to investigate how breeding density affects extra-pair fertilizations (EPFs). Within species EPFs appeared to increase with density: two of three studies on colonial breeders and six of eight on dispersed nesters showed increases in EPFs with increasing density. However, comparisons among species (n?=?72) revealed no evidence that EPF frequencies correlated with (1) nesting dispersion, (2) local breeding density, or (3) breeding synchrony, even when each of these variables in turn was held constant and phylogenetic relationships were taken into account via contrast analyses. Methodological and biological reasons for the disparity between observational studies of EPCs and molecular genetic analyses of EPFs are discussed.     

北京市典型城区环境空气中苯系物的污染特征、来源分析与健康风险评价

自2013年6月以来,利用Airmo VOC在线分析仪在北京市典型城区开展了环境空气中挥发性有机物(VOCs)的连续观测,选取2014年4个季节中各1个月的苯系物在线数据,分析了其浓度水平、变化特征、光化学反应活性,利用美国环保署(US EPA)提出的健康风险评价方法开展了有毒有害苯系物物种的健康风险评价,结合来源分析结果,明确北京市应重点控制的苯系物污染来源。研究区观测期间环境空气中16种苯系物的质量浓度为(22.64±16.83)μg·m-3,且具有秋季冬季春季夏季的特点,其中BTEX(苯、甲苯、乙苯和二甲苯)的质量浓度为(19.27±14.46)μg·m-3,占苯系物浓度水平的41.09%~95.16%。研究区观测期间苯系物质量浓度夜间高于日间,日变化呈V字形,在13:00—15:00时质量浓度低。16种苯系物的臭氧生成潜势(OFP)的范围为66.62~170.67μg·m-3,其中间+对二甲苯、甲苯和邻二甲苯的OFP值相对较大;二次有机气溶胶生成潜势(SOAFP)的范围为0.71~1.86μg·m-3,其中甲苯、间+对二甲苯和乙苯的SOAFP值相对较大。研究区观测期间6种苯系物(BTEX和苯乙烯)的危害指数在8.19E-03~5.01E-02之间,在4个季节中对暴露人群尚不存在非致癌性风险;而Ⅰ类致癌物质苯的风险值处于7.13E-08~8.13E-06之间,在夏、秋和冬季对研究区暴露人群的人体健康均存在潜在的致癌性风险。来源分析结果表明,研究区春、秋季苯系物主要来源于机动车尾气的排放,其中春季还受到溶剂等挥发的影响,夏、冬季苯系物则主要来自于燃煤源。     

广州绿地土壤理化特性及其相关性

以广州市荔湾区城市绿地为起点往东北延伸至从化流溪河自然保护区,建立长100km、宽10km的绿地土壤样带以研究广州市绿地土壤理化性状及土壤因子间的相关性。研究结果表明,广州绿地土壤容重平均值为（1.31±0.20）g·cm^-3,属偏紧范围;自然含水量为112.14～402.33g·kg^-1;总孔隙度均值（44.10%±4.84%）,属过紧实（45.3%～41.5%）。土壤pH值为2.21～7.82,变幅较广;有机质属丰富偏下水平（30～40g·kg^-1）;有效磷、有效钙和重金属的变化范围也较广。土壤砂粒质量分数与绝大多数土壤物理因子呈极显著负相关（P〈0.01）,土壤pH值与重金属总铬、总镉、总铅、有效铜、有效钙和有效钾等呈极显著正相关（P〈0.01）。研究结果为科学使用和保护城市绿地土壤提供依据。     

Assessing Habitat Quality for a Migratory Songbird Wintering in Natural and Agricultural Habitats

Abstract:  As tropical forests are cleared, a greater proportion of migratory songbirds are forced to winter in agricultural and disturbed habitats, which, if poorer in quality than natural forests, could contribute to population declines. We compared demographic indicators of habitat quality for a focal species, the American Redstart ( Setophaga ruticilla ), wintering in Jamaican citrus orchards and shade coffee plantations with those in four natural habitats: mangrove, coastal scrub, coastal palm, and dry limestone forests. Demographic measures of habitat quality included density, age and sex ratio, apparent survival, and changes in body mass. Measures of habitat quality for redstarts in citrus and coffee habitats were generally intermediate between the highest (mangrove) and lowest (dry limestone) measurements from natural habitats. The decline in mean body mass over the winter period was a strong predictor of annual survival rate among habitats, and we suggest that measures of body condition coupled with survival data provide the best measures of habitat quality for nonbreeding songbirds. Density, which is far easier to estimate, was correlated with these more labor-intensive measures, particularly in the late winter when food is likely most limiting. Thus, local density may be useful as an approximation of habitat quality for wintering migrant warblers. Our findings bolster those of previous studies based on bird abundance that suggest arboreal agricultural habitats in the tropics can be useful for the conservation of generalist, insectivorous birds, including many migratory passerines such as redstarts.     

Interpolation performance of a spatio-temporal model with spatially varying coefficients: application to PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentrations in Rio de Janeiro

In this work we present a Bayesian analysis in linear regression models with spatially varying coefficients for modeling and inference in spatio-temporal processes. This kind of model is particularly appealing in situations where the effect of one or more explanatory processes on the response present substantial spatial heterogeneity. We describe for this model how to make inference about the regression coefficients and response processes under two scenarios: when the explanatory processes are known throughout the study region, and when they are known only at the sampling locations. Using a simulation experiment we investigate how parameter inference and interpolation performance are affected by some features of the data and prior distribution that is used. The proposed methodology is used to model the dataset on PM₁₀ levels in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro presented in Paez and Gamerman (2003).     

Roads and Landscape Pattern in Northern Wisconsin Based on a Comparison of Four Road Data Sources

Abstract:  Roads are important components of landscapes; they fragment habitat, facilitate invasive species spread, alter hydrology, and influence patterns of land use. Previous research on the ecological impacts of roads may have underestimated their effect because currently available sources of road data do not include the full road network. We compared differences in road density and landscape pattern among U.S. Census Bureau TIGER line files, U.S. Geological Survey 1:100,000-scale digital line graphs, and U.S. Geological Survey 1:24,000-scale digital raster graphics in northern Wisconsin to road data derived from 1:40,000-scale digital orthophotos. Road density measured from digital orthophotos (2.82 km/km²) was significantly greater than that of digital raster graphics (1.62 km/km²) and more than double that of digital line graphs (1.21 km/km²) and TIGER (1.27 km/km²) data. The increased road densities in raster graphics and orthophoto data were mainly due to the addition of minor roads. When all roads were used to define patch boundaries, landscape metrics produced with orthophoto data showed significantly greater levels of fragmentation than those based on line or raster graphics. For example, maximum patch size was 1074 ha and total edge was 109 km for line graphs, compared with 686 ha and 211 km for orthophoto data. Roads are missing in commonly used data, primarily because mapping standards systematically exclude minor roads. These standards are not ecologically based and may result in false assumptions about the ecological effects of roads. We recommend that future studies take special consideration of the completeness of road data and consider whether all ecologically relevant roads are included.     

Manipulation of nest-box density affects extra-pair paternity in a population of blue tits (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Parus caeruleus</Emphasis>)

We tested the effect of manipulation of breeding density on the occurrence of extra-pair paternity in a blue tit (Parus caeruleus) population during two consecutive years. In a homogeneous oak forest, nest-box manipulation provided a high density plot (plot A, 1.10 and 1.32 pairs/ha) and a low density plot (plot B, 0.43 and 0.46 pairs/ha). Microsatellite analysis on 91 broods revealed a higher proportion of extra-pair paternity in broods in plot A (mean of 17.2%) than in plot B (mean of 11.4%). A correlative approach showed that the proportion of extra-pair young in broods was affected by the number of breeding neighbours within 100 m around the nest-box, by the distance to the nearest breeding neighbour and by an additional plot effect. However, the nearest neighbours accounted for only 39.3% of extra-pair paternities and distance to extra-pair fathers was significantly higher than the nearest neighbour distance in both plots. This implies that the effect of density on the occurrence of extra-pair paternities is associated with active female choice to enhance the brood fitness. Although there were more extra-pair young in broods when density was high, the number of extra-pair fathers did not increase and stayed close to one. We suggest that density increases the cost of mate guarding by males, thereby increasing the possibility for females to solicit extra-pair paternities to the cuckolding male they have chosen. Finally, we discuss why correlatives approaches do not always show evidence for an effect of breeding density on extra-pair paternity occurrence.Communicated by M. Soler     

Predicting a ‘tree change’ in Australia's tropical savannas: Combining different types of models to understand complex ecosystem behaviour

In this study, key ecological modelling limitations of a process-based simulation model and a Bayesian network were reduced by combining the two approaches. We demonstrate the combined modelling approach with a case study investigating increases in woody vegetation density in northern Australia's tropical savannas. We found that by utilising the strengths of a simulation model and a Bayesian network we could both forecast future change in woody vegetation density and diagnose the reasons for current vegetation states. The local conditions of climate, soil characteristics and the starting population of trees were found to be more important in explaining the likelihood of change in woody vegetation density compared to management practices such as grazing pressure and fire regimes. We conclude that combining the strengths of a process and BN model allowed us to produce a simple model that utilised the ability of the process model to simulate ecosystem processes in detail and over long time periods, and the ability of the BN to capture uncertainty in ecosystem response and to conduct scenario, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis. The overall result was a model that has the potential to provide land managers with a better understanding of the behaviour of a complex ecosystem than simply utilising either modelling approach in isolation.