Infant and Under-five Mortality in Bangladesh: Discriminant Analysis

Abstract

Bangladesh is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal 4 relating to infant and under-five mortality because of very rapid reduction in mortality in recent years. But this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may hamper the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to discuss and compare the different covariates of infant and under-five mortality in the context of overall country, urban and rural levels of Bangladesh using discriminant analysis. For this, the data are taken from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2004. In discriminant analysis, the stepwise procedure has been picked up and only the significant variables are ranked according to the rank of Wilk’s Lambda values. The canonical discriminant function coefficients (unstandardized and standardized) for the predictor variables have also been calculated. Both the results show that breastfeeding is the most important variable in discriminating the two groups of mothers, i.e., mothers experiencing to infant mortality or not and mothers experiencing to under-five mortality or not. The related results of discriminant function also indicate that the discriminant function is statistically significant and discriminates well. Therefore, improvements in the health system are essential for promoting the breastfeeding practices (both inclusive and exclusive), which may be the effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information.     

Direct and Indirect Effects of Socioeconomic Factors on Age at First Marriage in Slum Areas,Bangladesh

This article attempts to examine the influence of some selected predictor variables on female age at first marriage in slum areas of Bangladesh. A path and multiple classification analysis (MCA) approach have been adopted. Authors thought that respondent’s educational level and the mass media such as watching television have a significant direct impact on age at marriage, while the types of family and occupational status have an indirect effect on age at marriage.     

Direct and Indirect Effects of Socioeconomic Factors on Age at First Marriage in Slum Areas,Bangladesh

This article attempts to examine the influence of some selected predictor variables on female age at first marriage in slum areas of Bangladesh. A path and multiple classification analysis （MCA） approach have been adopted. Authors thought that respondent＇s educational level and the mass media such as watching television have a significant direct impact on age at marriage, while the types of family and occupational status have an indirect effect on age at marriage.     

Mortality rate and population density regulation in the great tit, Parus major L.: A review

A comparative analysis of published estimates of survival rates in different populations of great tits is made separately for adult and juvenile birds. The relationship between environmental conditions and demographic parameters in the reproduction of populations is discussed. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2006, No. 3, pp. 199–207. The article was translated by the author.     

Impacts of arsenic contamination in groundwater: case study of some villages in Bangladesh

The contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh by arsenic is a widespread and serious environmental problem, affecting mainly the rural population who rely extensively on groundwater for drinking and cooking. The study conducted survey work in a few affected villages of the Northwest region in Bangladesh. The household survey gathered information on the respondents (affected by arsenic) water usage and sources, knowledge of the arsenic problem, changes in the source of water for drinking and cooking, arsenic mitigation technologies and socio-economic information on the households. The survey work shows that percentage of male patient is higher than female patient among the same level of household income in each study villages. Prevalence of arsenicosis is more among poorer sections and it is directly related to the poverty situation of the community. People know more about the health problems caused by arsenicosis but lack knowledge about mitigation aspects. In one of the study areas, every year an extra 4% tubewell is getting contaminated by arsenic. Arsenic contamination in groundwater also affects the environment and the ecology negatively. The NGOs have been found contributing to a knowledge creation process in the village community as the villagers are showing marked behavioral changes in water-use practice.

工业化水平区域差异与中国能源消费

在对30个省区工业化水平进行了聚类分析的基础上，描述了工业化水平的区域差异。通过对中国煤炭、石油两类非可再生能源的消费在区域工业增长中的判别分析，探讨了区域工业化水平对能源消费水平的影响。这种影响以工业能源密度为动因，促成了区域工业化水平与能源消费总量水平的一致性和差异性。研究结果表明：工业能源密度的降低和能源效率的改进有利于工业化水平提高。     

Age at first marriage and its relation to fertility in Bangladesh

The 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey(BDHS)data are exploited to examine the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on age at first marriage linkage to reproductive behavior of Bangladeshi women.The mean age at first marriage of women is found to be 15.48 years.Multivariate logistic regression technique shows that place of residence,religion,region,wealth index,education,and occupation are significantly important factors for determining age at first marriage.The relationship between marriage and fertility suggests that women who marry at a younger age produce more children than women who marry late.Findings of this study show that if the age at first marriage of adolescents is increased by 1 year,the age at first birth is postponed by 0.728 years.With the increase in age at first marriage,the fecundability of women sharply rises,whereas the proportion of temporary sterility decreases.Although there is a positive association between age at first marriage and age-specific marital fertility rates,the total parity per woman at the end of the reproductive period is expected to reduce by 0.196 for each 1-year delayed marriage.     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

成本效益分析与代际公平:新代际折现思路

成本效益分析在评价涉及长期资源环境影响的项目和政策时因损害代际公平面颇受批评,因此如何修正成本效益分析使其能够用于这类项目和政策的评价是研究的焦点.本文从可持续发展理论出发,首先比较分析经验代际折现率、零社会折现率、单一环境折现率和双重社会折现率四种当前具有代表性的代际折现率的提出背景、计算方法和运用范围,然后构建基于多重社会折现率的新代际折现思路,最后以水土保持项目为例,利用数字模拟方法验证了新代际折现思路的具体运用.结果表明:其一,与四种当翦代表性的代际折现率相比,多重社会折现率在评价具有复杂环境影响的项目和政策上更其优势;其二,基于多重社会折现率的新代际折现思路能够为涉及长期资源环境影响的项目和政策评价提供系统的拆现率选择指导;其三,多重社会折现率下的环境折现率遵循随着时间推移递减,随着人造资本与资源环境间替代难度的增大而递减的原则.最后文章从构建多领域专家参与平台和编制折现率查询表两个方面提供政策建议.     

环境规制和农业科技进步的关系分析——基于波特假说的研究

波特假说主要从动态的角度论证了环境规制和农业科技进步之间的正向变亿关系.而在安徽省1990 -2008年的农业生产数据的基础上,选择合适的环境规制和农业科技进步的指标变量,运用Johansen协整分析方法验证了安徽省农业生产中的环境规制和农业科技进步的关系也符合这一假说,Granger因果关系检验说明了安徽省环境规制是农业科技进步产生的原因,脉冲响应分析和方差分析则更深入地从定量的角度分析了环境规制对农业科技进步影响滞后的趋势和影响程度.由实证分析可以看出,只是从静态角度来分析,环境规制是不利于农业的科技进步的;但从长期效益来看,环境规制有利于农业的科技进步.因此,在农业生态环境恶化的形势下,严格对农业废弃物的排放限制,制定较严格的农产品生产标准和产品质量标准,提高农民的环境意识和科技意识,通过强化环境规制来促使农业生产者提高农业生产技术,提高农产品品质和产品的市场竞争力就显得尤为重要.     

基于投入产出方法的中国居民虚拟水消费研究

居民在消费商品或服务的过程中,即在消费隐含其中的虚拟水,并且虚拟水的消费量远大于实物形态的水的消耗。不同消费模式对水资源的需求差异很大。文章借助投入产出方法计算了2002年中国各省及城乡居民的虚拟水消费情况,并分析了造成虚拟水消费差距的原因。结果表明,人均虚拟水消费量省际间及城乡间差异显著,基本是发达地区高于欠发达地区,城镇高于农村;每万元消费的虚拟水含量省际间及城乡间也有所不同,基本是欠发达地区高于发达地区,农村高于城镇。分析认为,消费水平和消费结构是造成这种差异的根本原因。     

Forest protected area governance in Bangladesh:a focus on the legal and policy framework

In the context of renewed interest in collaboration in natural resource management,the collaborative governance approach has lately been introduced to the forest Protected Areas(PAs)in Bangladesh.The adoption of this co-management approach is seen as an attempt to influence the governance process towards a transformation from the conventional custodian system to a more participatory management regime.Recognition of rights and responsibilities,effective participation,and equitable distribution of benefits amongst the key stakeholders working under a facilitative policy and legal framework are believed to address the broader goals of sustainable development Notwithstanding the resurgence of interest in governance of forest PAs through the co-management approach,academic research on the subject remains limited.This article attempts to review selected key information and milestones on the forest PAs governance with special reference to the major policies and legal documents.With a brief introductory section,this article focuses on the genesis and selected major features of the Forest PAs in the country.The discussion then dwells on the policy and legal framework and provides a critique on its relevance for promoting community participation.The existing institutional arrangements for community engagement in protected area governance are also analyzed in light of the national and international commitment and policy obligations on the part of the country.The salient observations and key findings of the study include the following:(1)despite its limitations,comanagement as concept and practice has gradually taken roots in Bangladesh;(2)the degree and level of active community participation remain low and limited,and there is also clear weakness in conscientizing and orientating the local community on the key legal and policy issues related to PA governance in the country;and(3)policy makers,practitioners,and other local stakeholders related to PA governance need to be oriented on international commitment and national de     

Mortality and recruitment of mountain birch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula pubescens</Emphasis> ssp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">czerepanovii</Emphasis>) in the impact zone of a copper-nickel smelter in the period of significant reduction of emissions: The results of 15-year monitoring

Long-term monitoring of mountain birch populations (1992–2006) was performed in 14 test plots located at distances of 1 to 63 km from the copper-nickel smelter in Monchegorsk (Murmansk oblast) and differing in the degree of disturbance. In the period from 1999 to 2006, atmospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals amounted to only one-third of those between 1992 and 1998, but birch mortality in heavily polluted areas (with nickel concentrations in leaves exceeding 160 mg/kg) remained at the same level, being absent (as previously) in less polluted areas. Throughout the observation period, birch recruitment was observed only in areas where nickel concentrations in the leaves were below 160 mg/kg; i.e., this concentration proved to be the threshold with respect to both mortality and recruitment of mountain birch. The course of demographic processes in its populations has remained unchanged after the reduction of emissions, confirming the hypothesis of the “inertial“ effect of industrial emissions on ecosystems. In some areas of industrial barrens, mountain birch may perish completely within the next decade.     

On Sustainable Development of Social Forestry in Bangladesh: Experiences from Sal (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Shorea Robusta</Emphasis>) Forests

Sustainability in forestry is a complex amalgam of trade-offs among its various dimensions and there is no easy route to achieve sustainable development. It is important that policy process and implementation strategy of these policies should be based on sound information about these trade-offs. There is a growing consensus amongst key forest decision-makers in Bangladesh that traditional forestry is needed to make the transition to more sustainable forestry, which is likely to involve local people in forest management. As a result, the government has initiated a social forestry program from 1981 with the assistance of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) grant and operated mainly in Sal forest areas. The most important objective of this program is to protect, manage, and develop forests in a sustainable way by involving local communities. Although several studies have focused on the management issues of social forestry, none of these studies has evaluated the indicators of sustainable social forestry. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the criteria of sustainable development of social forestry in Bangladesh. The study is based on primary cross-sectional data collected using the multistage stratified sampling technique. In total, 581 social forestry farmers were selected randomly and interviewed using a pre-tested questionnaire. The study evaluated some important components of sustainable development and identified the following conditions of social forestry in Bangladesh:(i) almost all the components of sustainable development of social forestry, although not at the aspiration level, were at good condition;(ii) participants were interested and committed to work with Forest Department in developing social forestry;(iii) they had been utilizing both hard and soft technology in practicing social forestry, although there exists ample scope of development;(iv) income of participants after involving in social forestry had increased, although not at satisfactory level; and(v) process of producing social and material goods had been under progress.However, there exist plenty of scopes for sustainable social forestry development through improving the sustainable development components more carefully.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Research on Tourism Competitiveness of Chinese Island Counties: Based on Factor and Cluster Analysis

Abstract

From the perspective of tourism competitiveness, the paper takes 12 island counties of China as the research object, and applies the method of factor analysis to study their competitiveness. The result shows that Putuo and Dinghai are more competitive while Pingtan and Nan’ao are less competitive. Finally, the 12 island counties are divided into four styles: first-class competitive county (Putuo), seond-class competitive counties (Dinghai,Yuhuan), third-class competitive counties (Chongming, Daishan, Changdao, Changhai and Shengsi), fourth-class competitive counties (Dongshan, Dongtou, Pingtan and Nan’ao) by cluster analysis. The classification of island counties is to clear their relative position, then to promote their development.     

Research on Tourism Competitiveness of Chinese Island Counties： Based on Factor and Cluster Analysis

From the perspective of tourism competitiveness, the paper takes 12 island counties of China as the research object, and applies the method of factor analysis to study their com- petitiveness. The resu...     

基于投入产出法的中国出口产品隐含碳测算

使用投入产出法,利用1999 -2008年中国海关货物出口商品分类数据,研究和测算了中国出口商品中的隐含碳.研究结果显示,中国是隐含碳的出口大国,出口贸易是中国CO2排放量逐年增长的重要原因.1999 - 2008年,我国出口产品中的隐含碳由1999年的3.8亿t上升至2008年的11.9亿t,在此期间,中国CO2年排放量的12％ -24％是因生产满足国际市场消费的产品而产生的.中国出口产品中的隐含碳主要集中在5大类行业,分别为:纺织业及服装鞋帽制造业、化学医药制造业、黑色及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、通用及专用机械设备、电气机械及器材制造业.这5大类行业的出口产品中的隐含碳在中国出口产品的隐含碳总量中占到80％左右.中国出口产品隐含碳的主要流向是美国、欧盟和日本.在实证研究结果的基础上,本文认为国际社会应从生产者负责制和消费者负责制相结合的角度界定各国的碳排放责任和减排目标;同时建议我国应提高生产技术,降低产品的能源消耗强度,并限制能源密集型产业产品的出口.     

Analysis of the toxicogenomic effects of exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Slovakian girls: correlations between gene expression and disease risk

The chemical composition of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment is not uniform throughout the world, and these contaminants contain many structurally different lipophilic compounds. In a well-defined study cohort in the Slovak Republic, the POP chemicals present in the peripheral blood of exposed children were chemically analyzed. The chemical analysis data revealed that the relative concentration and profile of structurally different organic pollutants, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 2,2′-bis(4-chlorophenyl)-1,1-dichloroethylene (p,p′-DDE), 2,2′-bis(4-chlorophenyl)-1,1,1-trichloro-ethane (p,p′-DDT), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH), may vary from individual to individual, even within the same exposure area. These chemicals can be broadly classified into two groups. The first group, the PCB congeners, primarily originated from industrial compounds and their byproducts. The second group of compounds originated from or was commonly used in the agricultural sector (e.g., DDT, HCB). The objective of this study was to examine the effects of the two POP exposure profiles on gene expression. For the study population, we selected pre-pubertal girls (mean age of 46.2 ± 1.4 months) with high POP concentrations in their blood (> 75% tile of total POP) and classified them in the high ‘PCB’ group when the total PCB concentration was significantly higher than the total concentration of other POP components and in the ‘Other Than PCB’ (OTP) group, when the total PCB concentration was significantly lower than the concentration of the other major POP constituents. A matched control group of girls (< 25% tile of total POP) was selected for comparison purpose (n = 5 per group). Our aims were to determine whether there were any common effects of high POP exposure at a toxicogenomic level and to investigate how exposure may affect physiological functions of the children in two different exposure scenarios. Global gene expression analysis using a microarray (Affymetrix Gene Chip Human genome U133 Plus 2.0 Array) platform was conducted on the total RNA of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from the girls. The results were analyzed by Partek GS, Louis, MI, which identified twelve genes (ATAD2B, BIVM, CD96, CXorf39, CYTH1 ETNK1, FAM13A, HIRA, INO80B, ODG1, RAD23B, and TSGA14) and two unidentified probe sets, as regulated differentially in both the PCB and OTP groups against the control group. The qRT-PCR method was used to validate the microarray results. The Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) software package identified the possible molecular impairments and disease risks associated with each gene set. Connective tissue disorders, genetic disorders, skeletal muscular disorders and neurological diseases were associated with the 12 common genes. The data therefore identified the potential molecular effects of POP exposure on a genomic level. This report underscores the importance of further study to validate the results in a random population and to evaluate the use of the identified genes as biomarkers for POP exposure.     

The Path Analysis and Its Application Study on Cultivated Land Change in Hubei Province

On the basis of introducing the principle of path analy- sis, this paper positively analyzes the influence factors of culti- vated land change from 1978 to 2002 in Hubei Province. The relationship between the influence factors and cultivated land change is studied by means of the path analysis. The results show that the construction rearrangement of agriculture, grain security and market mechanism are the main factors that decide the culti- vated land change. Meanwhile, the impact of investment, urbani- zation and benefit gap among the different utilizing ways also leads to the change of cultivated land. The result means that though some factors have less direct influence on the change of cultivated land, their indirect influence is significant or vice versa.