A simple model for simulation of insect pheromone dispersion within forest canopies

Synthetic pheromones and other behavioral chemicals are used by land managers to prevent insect-caused tree mortality or crop failure in forest and agricultural systems. Currently, no method exists to continuously measure pheromone concentration or movement in real-time. To improve our understanding of pheromone fate and transport under different forest canopies, results from a set of surrogate pheromone (sulfur hexafluoride tracer) experimental trials were used to evaluate a simple, instantaneous, three-dimensional Lagrangian dispersion model. The model was designed to predict both instantaneous and time-averaged pheromone concentrations. Overall, the results from the model show simulated time-averaged arc maximum concentrations within a factor of two of the observed data. The model correctly matched the sharp peaks and narrow widths of the meandering plumes observed in the instantaneous data, however the magnitude of the instantaneous peaks was often under-estimated. This model and evaluation provide the basis for a tool that can be used to guide deployment of synthetic pheromones or other semiochemicals for monitoring, mass trapping, or disruption of mating or aggregation.     

A stochastic forest fire growth model

We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.

3 forest simulation model

The 3 forest simulation model is a process model of tree growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a single-species, even-aged forest stand. It is based on the model. Major changes include the computation of sun angle and radiation as a function of latitude and day of the year, the closed-form integration of canopy production as a function of day and hour, the introduction of tree number, height, and diameter as separate state variables, and different growth strategies, mortalities, and resulting self-thinning as function of crowding competition.The tree/soil system is described by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations for the state variables: tree number, base diameter, tree height, wood biomass, nitrogen in wood, leaf mass, fine root mass, fruit biomass, assimilate, carbon and nitrogen in litter, carbon and nitrogen in soil organic matter, and plant-available nitrogen. The model includes explicit formulations of all relevant ecophysiological processes such as: computation of radiation as a function of seasonal time, daytime and cloudiness, light attenuation in the canopy, and canopy photosynthesis as function of latitude, seasonal time, and daytime, respiration of all parts, assimilate allocation, increment formation, nitrogen fixation, mineralization, humification and leaching, forest management (thinning, felling, litter removal, fertilization etc.), temperature effects on respiration and decomposition, and environmental effects (pollution damage to photosynthesis, leaves, and fine roots). Only ecophysiological parameters which can be either directly measured or estimated with reasonable certainty are used. 3 is a generic process model which requires species- and site-specific parametrization. It can be applied to deciduous and coniferous forests under tropical, as well as temperate or boreal conditions.The paper presents a full documentation of the mathematical model as well as representative simulation results for spruce and acacia.     

A geospatial model of forest dynamics with controlled trend surface

This paper proposes a method of controlled trend surface to simultaneously account for large-scale spatial trends and non-spatial local effects. With this method, a geospatial model of forest dynamics was developed for the Alaska boreal forest from 446 constantly monitored permanent sample plots. The geospatial component of this model represented large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of validation plots which represented temporal and spatial extensions of the current sample coverage. The results suggest that the controlled trend surface model was generally more accurate than both the non-spatial and conventional trend surface models. With this model, we mapped the forest dynamics of the entire Alaska boreal region by aggregating predicted stand states across the region. It was predicted that under current conditions of climate and natural disturbances, most of the Alaska boreal forest region may undergo a major shift from deciduous-dominant to conifer-dominant, with an average increase of 0.33 m² ha year⁻¹ in basal area over the Twenty-First Century.     

天然林林龄的模拟估算及案例

林龄是森林生态系统的一个重要特征,具有生态学意义.但是目前生态学调查中对天然林林龄的估算方法有一定缺陷.在特定的环境条件下,森林有着相应的演替过程.已有林窗研究表明.长白山森林是按照一定次序演替,森林的径级结构也是有规律可循的.由于总是缺乏足够的长期系统观测数据,因此作者采用数值模拟作为替代方法.应用校正过的林窗模型模拟0～600 a的森林演替序列,比较对长白山原始天然林的采样的结果,发现目前的林龄最接近400 a.这个估测结果可以从本地区历史资料记载得到印证.     

Spectral analysis of forest model time series

The use of spectral analysis to elucidate the cyclic behavior in time series generated by a forest stand growth simulation model is discussed. A stand-level simulator, FORET, for an Appalachian deciduous forest is described. An estimate of the power spectral density of the total biomass time series is calculated. The power spectral density estimate indicates a dominant cyclic behavior with a period of about 200 years. In addition the spectral density is approximately bandlimited. This characteristic makes possible the application of the sampling theorem for analysis of sampling rates.     

A simulation model for organic phosphorus transformation in a forest soil ecosystem

A numerical model which simulates the decomposition of litter and mineralization and immobilization of P in the humus layer of a temperate forest (beech site of Solling) is described. The model takes into account the effect of moisture, temperature and C/N ratio. The simulated concentration of P in the effluent of the humus layer agrees well with the measured values. The model predicts an increase in the C/P ratio of the unde-composed litter with time and that there is no direct mineralization of P from litter without passing through a microbial body. The net rate of mineralization is, however, always positive with its highest peak in July. Maximum immobilization of P from solution occurs in June and the minimum in January.The model is stable against changes in the litter input, its C/P ratio and other initial conditions, but it is very sensitive to changes in the efficiency factor which represents the fraction of decomposed C incorporated into microbial tissue. This is a site-specific model but can be used for grassland or agricultural systems with changes in certain parameters.     

Birds and bats reduce insect biomass and leaf damage in tropical forest restoration sites

Both birds and bats are important insect predators in tropical systems. However, the relative influence of birds and bats on insect populations and their indirect effects on leaf damage have not previously been investigated in tropical forest restoration sites. Leaf damage by herbivorous insects can negatively affect the growth and survival of tropical plants and thus can influence the success of tropical forest restoration efforts. We used an exclosure experiment to examine the top-down effects of birds and bats on insects and leaf damage in a large-scale forest restoration experiment. Given the potential influence of tree planting design on bird and bat abundances, we also investigated planting design effects on bird and bat insectivory and leaf damage. The experiment included two planting treatment plots: islands, where trees were planted in patches, and plantations, where trees were planted in rows to create continuous cover. In both types of plots, insect biomass was highest on tree branches where both birds and bats were excluded from foraging and lowest on branches without exclosures where both birds and bats were present. In the island plots, birds and bats had approximately equal impacts on insect populations, while in plantations bats appeared to have a slightly stronger effect on insects than did birds. In plantations, the levels of leaf damage were higher on branches where birds and bats were excluded than on branches where both had access. In island plots, no significant differences in leaf damage were found between exclosure treatments although potential patterns were in the same direction as in the plantations. Our results suggest that both birds and bats play important roles as top predators in restoration systems by reducing herbivorous insects and their damage to planted trees. Tropical restoration projects should include efforts to attract and provide suitable habitat for birds and bats, given their demonstrated ecological importance.     

Deer herbivory alters forest response to canopy decline caused by an exotic insect pest.

Hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) infestations have resulted in the continuing decline of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) throughout much of the eastern United States. While the initial impacts of HWA infestations have been documented, our understanding of forest response to this disturbance remains incomplete. HWA infestation is not occurring in isolation but within a complex ecological context. The role of potentially important interacting factors, such as elevated levels of white-tailed deer herbivory, is poorly understood. Despite the potential for herbivory to alter forest successional trajectories following a canopy disturbance, little is known about herbivory-disturbance interactions, and herbivory is rarely considered in assessing forest response to a co-occurring disturbance. We used repeated censuses of deer exclosures and paired controls (400 paired plots) to quantify the impact of deer herbivory on tree seedling species abundance in 10 eastern hemlock ravines that span a gradient in HWA-induced canopy decline severity. Use of a maximum likelihood estimation framework and information theoretics allowed us to quantify the strength of evidence for alternative models developed to estimate the impacts of herbivory on tree seedling abundance as a function of varying herbivore density and canopy decline severity. The exclusion of deer herbivory had marked impacts on the abundance of the studied seedling species: Acer rubrum, Acer saccharum, Betula lenta, Nyssa sylvatica, Quercus montana, and Tsuga canadensis. For all six species, the relationship between seedling abundance and deer density was either exponential or saturating. Although the functional form of the response varied among seedling species, the inclusion of both deer density and canopy decline severity measures consistently resulted in models with substantially greater support. Canopy decline resulted in higher proportional herbivory impacts and altered the ranking of herbivory impacts by seedling species. Our results suggest that, by changing species' competitive abilities, white-tailed deer herbivory alters the trajectory of forest response to this exotic insect pest and has the potential to shift future overstory composition.     

A system dynamics model for evaluating collaborative forest management: a case study in Indonesia

This article presents a system dynamics (SD) method to examine the problem of forest degradation. The model developed takes a system-oriented view of forest management, embracing both social and biophysical factors affecting deforestation. Social factors examined are socio-economic variables or elements that influence behaviour and decision-making choices at the household level. Biophysical factors are four sub-components that are considered major land uses namely, the paddy field component, rattan plantations, coffee plantations and forest stands. The model was applied in a case study located in Pasir District of East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The site covers an area that includes a protected forest and a privately allocated timber license concession. Three village communities are examined in the case study. The SD model developed was applied to the case study focusing on three management policies or scenarios, which are based on access rights to the forest resources within the study area. Specifically, the property arrangements examined in each scenario are: Policy 1 – status quo (i.e. continue present property rights arrangements); Policy 2 – local communities manage the forest exclusively; and Policy 3 – collaborative management involving both local communities and a private company. Results from the model show that the third policy is the most viable option, and also lead to a win–win solution.     

Model correlation in stochastic forest simulators—A case of multilevel multivariate model for seedling establishment

Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.     

基于生态过程模型和森林清查数据的森林生长量估算对比研究

利用遥感驱动的生态过程模型-Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator （BEPS）、2001-2006年国家森林资源连续清查数据（一类清查-样地尺度）和2003-2009年森林资源规划设计调查数据（二类调查-区域尺度）,分别计算江西省吉安市的森林生态系统生长量,从不同空间尺度和森林类型对3种数据源估算的森林生长量进行了分析。结果表明,样点尺度上,BEPS模型模拟的森林生长量（4.18 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）低于群落生长量（5.86 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）,与乔木层生长量（4.29 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）基本一致,模型模拟结果与两者的拟合R2分别为0.48和0.43。区域尺度上,BEPS模型模拟、二类调查数据计算的群落及乔木层生长量分别为4.65、4.36和3.34 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1,BEPS模型估算的吉安市各县森林总生长量与二类调查数据计算的群落、乔木层生长总量拟合R2分别达0.84和0.83。一类清查数据计算结果高于二类清查数据计算结果,BEPS模型模拟森林生长量分别与基于一类清查数据计算的乔木层生长量及二类调查数据群落生长量较为一致。从研究区两种主要森林类型来看,常绿阔叶林年平均生长量高于常绿针叶林,常绿针叶林与模型估算结果差异小于常绿阔叶林。最后利用模型估算了研究区2001-2010年平均生长量,为认识研究区的森林生长空间分布差异及更新森林生物量提供支持。     

Calibration of the forest vegetation simulator (FVS) model for the main forest species of Ontario,Canada

The forest vegetation simulator (FVS) model was calibrated for use in Ontario, Canada, to predict the growth of forest stands. Using data from permanent sample plots originating from different regions of Ontario, new models were derived for dbh growth rate, survival rate, stem height and species group density index for large trees and height and dbh growth rate for small trees. The dataset included black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) for the boreal region, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), white pine (Pinus strobus L.), red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton) for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region, and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) for both regions. These new models were validated against an independent dataset that consisted of permanent sample plots located in Quebec. The new models predicted biologically consistent growth patterns whereas some of the original models from the Lake States version of FVS occasionally did not. The new models also fitted the calibration (Ontario) data better than the original FVS models. The validation against independent data from Quebec showed that the new models generally had a lower prediction error than the original FVS models.     

基于PCA的森林生物量遥感信息模型研究

森林生物量和遥感多光谱数据、植被指数及地学因子存在相关关系,但这些因子间可能存在着多重相关性,如利用这些因子直接建模估测森林生物量,则可能出现病态模型。因此,文章采用主成分分析方法,提取遥感及地学因子的主成分,再建立主成分与生物量多元线性回归模型,估测森林生物量,达到既可保留多个遥感及地学因子的主要信息,又可避免因子间共线性的问题,以及降维,简化模型的作用。文章以高黎贡山自然保护区常绿阔叶林为研究对象,利用地面样地胸径每木调查数据,结合生物量相对生长式,得样地生物量。利用2006年印度卫星(IRS)数据,包括B2、B3、B4、B5四个波段,提取DVI、NDVI、PVI、RVI、VI3、SLAVI六种植被指数,利用DEM提取海拔、坡度、坡向值共13个遥感及地学因子。在此基础上,提取13个因子的主成分,第一主成分至第五主成分的累计贡献率达98.7%。以前5个主成分值作自变量,建立主成分与地面生物量的回归模型,模型经方差分析及相关性检验,达到显著相关水平,相关系数R=0.7129,可用于森林生物量估测。     

ANAFORE: A stand-scale process-based forest model that includes wood tissue development and labile carbon storage in trees

A stand-scale forest model has been developed that dynamically simulates, besides carbon (C) and water (H₂O) fluxes, wood tissue development from physiological principles. The forest stand is described as consisting of trees of different size cohorts (for example, dominant, co-dominant and suppressed trees), either of the same or of different species (deciduous or coniferous). Half-hourly C and H₂O fluxes are modeled at the leaf, tree and stand level. In addition to total growth and yield, the model simulates the daily evolution of tracheid or vessel biomass and radius, parenchyma and branch development. From these data early and latewood biomass, wood tissue composition and density are calculated. Simulation of the labile C stored in the living tissues allows for simulation of trans-seasonal and trans-yearly effects, and improved simulations of long-term effects of environmental stresses on growth. A sensitivity analysis was performed to indicate the main parameters influencing simulated stem growth and wood quality at the tree and stand level. Case studies were performed for a temperate pine forest to illustrate the main model functioning and, more in particular, the simulation of the wood quality. The results indicate that the ANAFORE model is a useful tool for simultaneous analyses of wood quality development and forest ecosystem functioning.     

A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss

With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.     

Evaluating weather effects on interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of a coastal temperate forest landscape: A model intercomparison

Forest productivity is strongly affected by seasonal weather patterns and by natural or anthropogenic disturbances. However weather effects on forest productivity are not currently represented in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3 used in national forest C accounting programs. To evaluate different approaches to modelling these effects, a model intercomparison was conducted among CBM-CFS3 and four process models (ecosys, CN-CLASS, Can-IBIS and 3PG) over a 2500 ha landscape in the Oyster River (OR) area of British Columbia, Canada. The process models used local weather data to simulate net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and net biome productivity (NBP) from 1920 to 2005. Other inputs used by the process and inventory models were generated from soil, land cover and disturbance records. During a period of intense disturbance from 1928 to 1943, simulated NBP diverged considerably among the models. This divergence was attributed to differences among models in the sizes of detrital and humus C stocks in different soil layers to which a uniform set of soil C transformation coefficients was applied during disturbances. After the disturbance period, divergence in modelled NBP among models was much smaller, and attributed mainly to differences in simulated NPP caused by different approaches to modelling weather effects on productivity. In spite of these differences, age-detrended variation in annual NPP and NEP of closed canopy forest stands was negatively correlated with mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September (T_amax) in all process models (R² = 0.4-0.6), indicating that these correlations were robust. The negative correlation between T_amax and NEP was attributed to different processes in different models, which were tested by comparing CO₂ fluxes from these models with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) under contrasting air temperatures (T_a). The general agreement in sensitivity of annual NPP to T_amax among the process models led to the development of a generalized algorithm for weather effects on NPP of coastal temperate coniferous forests for use in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3: NPP′ = NPP − 57.1 (T_amax − 18.6), where NPP and NPP′ are the current and temperature-adjusted annual NPP estimates from the inventory-based model, 18.6 is the long-term mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September, and T_amax is the mean value for the current year. Our analysis indicated that the sensitivity of NPP to T_amax was nonlinear, so that this algorithm should not be extrapolated beyond the conditions of this study. However the process-based methodology to estimate weather effects on NPP and NEP developed in this study is widely applicable to other forest types and may be adopted for other inventory based forest carbon cycle models.