Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass

The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exclusion policies and practices. The fire regime at any given location in these regions is a result of complex interactions between forest biomass, topography, ignitions, and weather. Forest structure and biomass are important aspects in determining current and future fire regimes. Efforts to quantify live and dead forest biomass at the local to regional scale has been hindered by the uncertainty surrounding the measurement and modeling of forest ecosystem processes and fluxes. The interaction of elevated CO2 with climate, soil nutrients, and other forest management factors that affect forest growth and fuel loading will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth and the distribution of species across the southern United States. The use of satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of forest carbon. The incorporation of Landsat Thematic Mapper data coupled with a physiologically based productivity model (PnET), soil water holding capacity, and historic and projected climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project to obtain estimates of forest area and type to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed forest classes for use in an assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale for the southern United States. The displays of net primary productivity (NPP) generated from the PnET model show areas of high and low forest carbon storage potential and their spatial relationship to other landscape features for the southern United States. At the regional scale, predicted annual NPP in 1992 ranged from 836 to 2181 g/m2/year for evergreen forests and 769-2634 g/m2/year for deciduous forests with a regional mean for all forest land of 1448 g/m2/year. Prediction of annual NPP in 2050 ranged from 913 to 2076 g/m2/year for evergreen forest types to 1214-2376 g/m2/year for deciduous forest types with a regional mean for all forest land of 1659 g/m2/year. The changes in forest productivity from 1992 to 2050 are shown to display potential areas of increased or decreased forest biomass. This methodology addresses the need for spatially quantifying forest carbon in the terrestrial biosphere to assess forest productivity and wildland fire fuels.     

Conservation and development in Amazonian extractive reserves: the case of Alto Juruá

Extractive reserves constitute an innovative approach to match conservation and development objectives, which were originally envisaged as part of a land struggle by forest dwellers in Brazil. In spite of the idea's popularity and the attempts to apply the concept to different tropical regions, there has been little analysis of the combined conservation and development performance of extractive reserve programs. We present a detailed analysis of deforestation and demographic and socioeconomic changes in Alto Juruá, the first extractive reserve created in Brazil in 1990. Forest cover has remained fairly stable. Population has declined slightly, with some internal displacements. The cash economy base has shifted from the original rubber production to a diversified portfolio of agriculture and livestock, and there has been a dramatic rise in nonagrarian income. We conclude that the Reserve represents a very dynamic setting with positive conservation and development outcomes during its first decade.     

Air pollution detection by satellites: The transport and deposition of air pollutants over oceans

Research is continuing towards the possible detection of air pollution by remote sensing techniques, and satellite imagery has been examined to find evidence of cross-Atlantic transport of air pollution. Pollution masses from industrial areas are often carried out over the Atlantic Ocean by tropospheric winds. However, the pollution mass is generally steered by convergent flows and fronts of extra-tropical cyclones, and wet deposition and scavenging of air pollutants within clouds occur primarily over the cold ocean, especially during the occlusion stage of a cyclone. As a result, the oceanic area from Cape Hatteras to 1500 km ENE of Newfoundland (the SW sector of the Icelandic low area) is often a ‘dumping ground’ (sink region) for air pollution from N America.However, a dust cloud generated by a volcanic eruption and a smoke plume from large-forest fires in western N America have been observed near the W coast of Europe. Saharan dust carried to N America by trade winds have been identified on satellite imagery. The massive smoke generation by large forest fires in Siberia is also identified in the present study. The results of research on forest fire smoke are currently being used by scientists studying the atmospheric effects of a large-scale nuclear war. It is suggested that the area between the S of Japan and the SW section of the Aleutian low is another principal sink of air pollutants and dust originating from NE Asia.     

Large net forest loss in Cambodia’s Tonle Sap Lake protected areas during 1992–2019

Historical land-use practices have caused forest loss in Cambodia’s Tonle Sap Lake area (TSLA), the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia. However, it remains unclear if this deforestation trend had continued since 2001 when the land was designated as protected areas. Using satellite imagery, we investigated forest conversion flows and fragmentation patterns in the TSLA for 1992–2001, 2001–2010, and 2010–2019, respectively. Results show substantial forest losses and fragmentations occurring at the lower floodplain where the protected areas are located until 2010, with some forest regain during 2010–2019. The land conversions indicated that forest clearing and agricultural farming were the primary causes for observed extensive forest loss during 1992–2010. Hence, despite the creating of protected areas in 2001, our findings reveal the persistence of alarming forest loss in the TSLA until 2010. On the other hand, while net forest loss has stopped after 2010, forest regain during 2010–2019 is way too small to restore the region’s total forest area to even the level when the protected areas were established. Thus, more effective planning and implementations of forest management and restoration policies are needed for the TSLA.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01704-4.     

Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.     

Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale

Abstract

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area’s ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Modeling and spatially distributing forest net primary production at the regional scale

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area's ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Forest reflectance modeling: theoretical aspects and applications

Forest reflectance models are able to contribute to the interpretation of satellite images over forested areas. A multipurpose forest reflectance model, its basic ideas, model input and output options are briefly described. The possibility to apply the model in forest remote sensing is demonstrated through the following simulation examples: the age dependence of forest reflectance, the seasonal course of forest reflectance, defoliation effects on forest reflectance, sensitivity of chlorophyll and water indices with respect to leaf chlorophyll and water content, respectively, and uncertainties in these indices introduced by the variation in stand parameters. When used together with the atmospheric radiative transfer and sensor calibration models, the forest reflectance model is applicable in satellite-imagery-aided forest ecology and health assessment, forest inventory and management.     

Forest decline and its causes in the south-central rift valley of Ethiopia: human impact over a one hundred year perspective

Forest decline in Ethiopia is highlighted by several authors but there is no consensus on its causes and consequences. The objective of this study is to investigate, from sociopolitical and geographical perspectives, the linkage between the trend of forest decline and changes in the social, economic, and political pattern in the Awassa watershed over a 100-year perspective. Field observations, satellite image and map analyses, interviews, and literature studies were employed, and natural indicators were analyzed. The findings indicate that the forest area declined from about 40% at the turn of the 19th century to less than 3% in the year 2000. Forest decline in the study area during the elected time period is the result of the combination of biophysical and social conditions. Important causes are geographic properties, sociopolitical changes, population growth, unstable land tenure principles, agricultural development, and the improvement of transport capacity. The main conclusions are as follows: Already in the early 20th century forest decline was in progress and forests were attributed an insignificant economic classification. Large areas of forest were cut down during periods of political transition when as a result of the political vacuum, interest in the protection of resources including forests was lacking. Long-term planning efforts to manage forests were obstructed by uncertainty resulting from land tenure principle change during each political period. The sparse area of forest land that remains is becoming increasingly attractive as potential land for arable agriculture because of improved road access between the study area and distant markets.     

Effects of Natural Disasters on Conservation Policies: The Case of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,China

Conservation policies are increasing in response to human-induced ecosystem degradation, but little is known about their interplay with natural disasters. Through an analysis of satellite imagery and field data we evaluated the impacts of a devastating earthquake on forest recovery and avoided forest loss estimated to have been obtained by two of the largest conservation programs in the world. Results show that more than 10% of the forests in Wenchuan County, Sichuan province, China were immediately affected by the 2008 earthquake, offsetting some gains in forest cover observed since the enactment of the conservation programs. But without the enactment of these conservation programs, the combined effects of human disturbance and earthquake-induced landslides could have severely reduced the region’s forest cover. The continuation—and enhancement—of incentives for participation in conservation programs will be important for reducing the environmental impacts of the combined effects of human disturbance and natural hazards not only in the study area but also in many disaster-prone regions around the world.     

Forest ecosystems and the changing patterns of nitrogen input and acid deposition today and in the future based on a scenario

A global assessment of the impact of the anthropogenic perturbation of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles on forest ecosystems is carried out for both the present-day [1980-1990] and for a projection into the future [2040-2050] under a scenario of economic development which represents a medium path of development according to expert guess [IPCC IS92a]. Results show that forest soils will receive considerably increasing loads of nitrogen and acid deposition and that deposition patterns are likely to change. The regions which are most prone to depletion of soils buffering capacity and supercritical nitrogen deposition are identified in the subtropical and tropical regions of South America and Southeast Asia apart from the well known 'hotspots' North-Eastern America and Central Europe. The forest areas likely to meet these two risks are still a minor fraction of the global forest ecosystems, though. But the bias between eutrophication and acidification will become greater and an enhanced growth triggered by the fertilizing effects of increasing nitrogen input cannot be balanced by the forest soils nutrient pools. Results show increasing loads into forest ecosystems which are likely to account for 46% higher acid loads and 36% higher nitrogen loads in relation to the 1980-1990 situation. Global background deposition of up to 5 kg N ha-1 a-1 will be exceeded at more than 25% of global forest ecosystems and at more than 50% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils. More than 33% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils will receive acid loads which exceeds their buffering capacity. About 25% of forest areas with exceeded acid loads will receive critical nitrogen loads.     

Comparison of regression coefficient and GIS-based methodologies for regional estimates of forest soil carbon stocks

Estimates of forest soil organic carbon (SOC) have applications in carbon science, soil quality studies, carbon sequestration technologies, and carbon trading. Forest SOC has been modeled using a regression coefficient methodology that applies mean SOC densities (mass/area) to broad forest regions. A higher resolution model is based on an approach that employs a geographic information system (GIS) with soil databases and satellite-derived landcover images. Despite this advancement, the regression approach remains the basis of current state and federal level greenhouse gas inventories. Both approaches are analyzed in detail for Wisconsin forest soils from 1983 to 2001, applying rigorous error-fixing algorithms to soil databases. Resulting SOC stock estimates are 20% larger when determined using the GIS method rather than the regression approach. Average annual rates of increase in SOC stocks are 3.6 and 1.0 million metric tons of carbon per year for the GIS and regression approaches respectively.     

Land cover accounting

The method of land cover accounting described in this paper has been applied in the Czech Republic. Land cover data have been obtained from the CORINE Land Cover national database produced in the early 1990s. Similarly, satellite images from the late 1970s were used to get another database for change detection. Coefficients estimating the contribution of every land cover category to the particular economic sector or activity were established. Then, the changes in land cover can indicate consequences for economic development in sectors and vice versa. The landscape changes were compared with economic parameters produced by the statistical office. Future development of this approach could provide a tool for economic scenarios modelling regarding the reflection of economic activity in the environment.     

Satellite change detection analysis of deforestation rates and patterns along the Colombia-Ecuador border

This study uses Landsat satellite data to document the rates and patterns of land-cover change along a portion of the Colombia-Ecuador border during a 23-yr period (1973-1996). Human colonization has resulted in extensive deforestation in both countries. Satellite change detection analysis showed that the annual rates of deforestation were considerably higher for the Colombian side of the border. In addition, loss of forest cover on the Colombian side for the study period was almost 43%, while only 22% on the Ecuadorian side. The study found that there is no single factor driving deforestation on either side of the border, but concluded that the higher rates on the Colombian side may be due to higher colonization pressures and intensification of illegal coca cultivation. On the Ecuador side of the border the satellite images documented patterns of deforestation that reflected road networks associated with oil exploration and development.     

Methodology for estimating soil carbon for the forest carbon budget model of the United States, 2001

The largest carbon (C) pool in United States forests is the soil C pool. We present methodology and soil C pool estimates used in the FORCARB model, which estimates and projects forest carbon budgets for the United States. The methodology balances knowledge, uncertainties, and ease of use. The estimates are calculated using the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service STATSGO database, with soil dynamics following assumptions based on results of site-specific studies, and area estimates from the USDA Forest Service. Forest Inventory and Analysis data and national-level land cover data sets. Harvesting is assumed to have no effect on soil C. Land use change and forest type transitions affect soil C. We apply the methodology to the southeastern region of the United States as a case study.     

Modeling habitat suitability for moose in coastal northern Sweden: empirical vs process-oriented approaches

Habitat models may provide viable tools for co-management of large ungulates and forest resources, yet their applicability has not been comprehensively evaluated in managed forest. We examined 2 inherently different approaches to model the relative winter habitat suitability for moose (Alces alces) in the coastal area of northern Sweden. An empirical approach based on GPS positions of 15 female moose was used to scrutinize the assumptions and functional mechanisms of a process-oriented, conceptual approach, based on published material on the species' preferences for habitat components related to food and cover. For both model approaches habitat was described using estimates of forest-stand characteristics based on satellite imagery. The empirical model also included variables relating to topographic properties of the landscape as well as distances to landscape features. The output from both models was a habitat suitability index (HSI) score, enabling the models to be compared with each other. The models showed different results, highlighting the need to include the spatially explicit distribution of environmental variables in future conceptual, process-oriented models.     

Forest Cover and Stream Flow in a Headwater of the Blue Nile: Complementing Observational Data Analysis with Community Perception

This study analyses the relation of forest cover and stream flow on the 266 km² Koga watershed in a headwater of Blue Nile Basin using both observed hydrological data and community perception. The watershed declined from 16% forest cover in 1957 to 1% by 1986. The hydrological record did not reveal changes in the flow regime between 1960 and 2002 despite the reduction in forest area. This agrees with the perception of the downstream community living near the gauging station. The upstream community, however, reported both decreases in low flows and increases in high flows shortly after the forest cover was reduced. The upstream deforestation effect appeared to have been buffered by a wetland lower in the watershed. This study concludes that community perception can be a complement to observational data for better understanding how forest cover influences the flow regime.     

Ethnobotanical skills and clearance of tropical rain forest for agriculture: a case study in the lowlands of Bolivia

Indigenous peoples are often considered potential allies in the conservation of biological diversity. Here we assess whether ethnobotanical skills of indigenous people contribute to a reduction in the clearance of tropical rain forest. We measured ethnobotanical skills of male household heads and area of rain forest cleared for agriculture among 128 households of Tsimane', a native Amazonian group in Bolivia. We used multivariate regressions to estimate the relation between ethnobotanical skills and area of rain forest cleared while controlling for schooling, health status, number of plots cleared, adults in household, and village of residency. We found that when the ethnobotanical skills of the male household head were doubled, the amount of tropical rain forest cleared per household was reduced by 25%. The association was stronger when the area of old-growth forest cleared was used as the dependent variable than when the area cleared from fallow forest was used as the dependent variable. People who use the forest for subsistence might place a higher value on standing forest than people who do not use it, and thus they may be more reluctant to cut down the forest.     

Assessment of historical land-use changes for purposes of strategic planning--a case study in Laos

How can governments in developing countries act together with local people to promote sustainable forest land use? Based upon an initial review of man's use of natural resources in Southeast Asia over 100 years, an interdisciplinary approach to strategic planning based on interaction among stakeholders is outlined. A case study in a water catchment area in Laos, dominated by shifting cultivation, is used to test and illustrate the approach, which includes interviews with local people about historical events and socioeconomic and environmental conditions. The study also includes field point sampling, remote sensing, official records and a simulation tool (the Area Production Model), for verification, calibration and supplementation of the information provided by villagers. By presenting the consolidated data to the villagers and giving them opportunities to consider their landuse and explain discrepancies, and comment on the conclusions, a dialogue on land-use strategies was initiated.