Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

The impact of visual information on perceptions of water resource problems and management alternatives

To assess changes in human understanding and decision making, the paper examines (1) the influence of visual information on perceptions about groundwater management in Phoenix, Arizona and (2) the correlates and dimensions underlying people's views about water scarcity and mitigation strategies. While perceptions entrenched in ideologies are difficult to change, different types of information (three-dimensional versus two-dimensional) have distinct impacts on the perceived magnitude of problems compared to judgements about their causes and solutions. Overall, visual information may be especially useful for developing a shared understanding of problems and a collective vision for management alternatives. Additional implications of this study for fostering environmental awareness, policy support, and collaborative decision making are also discussed.     

The problem of scale in community resource management

Scale is a fundamental variable in most community resource management programs. This is true both in terms of scale as a management concept (i.e., local, regional, and national level management) as well as a mapping concept (i.e., units on the map per unit on the ground). Julian Steward, the father of human ecology, recognized as early as 1950 that social scientists have failed to develop methods for incorporating the effect of scale in their work. This article seeks to determine whether methods used in plant and animal ecology for assessing the effects of scale are applicable to community resource management. The article reviews hierarchy theory and multiple scales, two methods (one theoretical and the other practical) for dealing with problems that span many scales. The application of these methods to community resource management programs is examined by way of an example.     

Evaluation of guild-indicator species for use in resource management

We followed selection guidelines commonly used by management agencies to select mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) as an indicator species for an ecological guild of birds. We then evaluated the ability of mountain quail to indicate the presence of other species from the guild and to index the quality of the habitat for other species. The ability of quail to indicate the presence of species from the ecological guild varied widely within and among vegetation types. Species compositions of the ecological guild were more consistent in comparisons of sites within vegetation types than they were in comparisons of sites between vegetation types. Mountain quail habitat was significantly different from the habitats of sympatric species from the guild for 14 of 15 multivariate contrasts. We suggest that managers use indicator species with caution. If indicators are used, they should be applied to guilds composed of species that closely share ecological affinities. The habitat of the indicator species should overlap extensively with those of all other guild members. The use of indicators should be restricted to very similar sites within the same general vegetation type.     

Assessing the role of learning devices and geovisualisation tools for collective action in natural resource management: Experiences from Vietnam

In northern Vietnam uplands the successive policy reforms that accompanied agricultural decollectivisation triggered very rapid changes in land use in the 1990s. From a centralized system of natural resource management, a multitude of individual strategies emerged which contributed to new production interactions among farming households, changes in landscape structures, and conflicting strategies among local stakeholders. Within this context of agrarian transition, learning devices can help local communities to collectively design their own course of action towards sustainable natural resource management. This paper presents a collaborative approach combining a number of participatory methods and geovisualisation tools (e.g., spatially explicit multi-agent models and role-playing games) with the shared goal to analyse and represent the interactions between: (i) decision-making processes by individual farmers based on the resource profiles of their farms; (ii) the institutions which regulate resource access and usage; and (iii) the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. This methodological pathway is illustrated by a case study in Bac Kan Province where it successfully led to a communication platform on natural resource management. In a context of rapid socioeconomic changes, learning devices and geovisualisation tools helped embed the participatory approach within a process of community development. The combination of different tools, each with its own advantages and constraints, proved highly relevant for supporting collective natural resource management.     

Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia

In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (σ1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed σ1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision-making process, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in the final decision. This approach is applicable to the study of risks in other pipeline systems.     

The influence of iron flow on iron resource efficiency in the steel manufacturing process

An iron resource efficiency is proposed to define a measure of the natural iron resources saved in the steel manufacturing process. A simplified iron flow diagram is presented for the steel manufacturing process. The influences of various deviations in iron flow from the simplified iron flow diagram on iron resource efficiency are analyzed. The relationships between iron resource efficiency of unit processes and the final product are also discussed. As an example, data from a steel plant are used to analyze the influence of iron flow on its iron resource efficiency of finial product in the steel manufacturing process, the influence of iron resource efficiency of unit process on iron resource efficiency of the final product, and give some measures to improve the iron resource efficiency of the steel manufacturing process.     

A systems approach to the evaluation of natural resource management initiatives

Adopting a new paradigm for natural resource and environmental policy that emphasises continuous change, adaptation and learning demands a new approach to evaluation to enable improvements in the way these initiatives contribute to sustainable resource use. Evaluation is fundamental to identifying change, supporting an adaptive approach that is flexible enough to meet the challenge of change, and enabling learning at individual, community, institutional and policy levels. Based on a consideration of changing approaches to natural resource management (NRM) policy and observations and experiences in the practical assessment of on-the-ground initiatives, the authors develop a set of principles for evaluation in NRM that: (a) addresses evaluation from a systems perspective, (b) links objective to consequence, (c) considers the fundamental assumptions and hypotheses that underpin core policy or program objectives, (d) is grounded in the natural resource, policy/institutional, economic, socio-cultural and technological contexts of implementation in practice, (e) establishes practical and valid evaluation criteria by which change can be monitored and assessed, (f) involves methodological pluralism including both quantitative and qualitative methods to ensure rigour and comprehensiveness in assessment, and (g) integrates different disciplinary perspectives (i.e. social, economic, environmental, policy and technological). The paper develops a systems-based evaluation framework that incorporates these principles and also recognises the multiple levels and nested nature of NRM policy, namely: problem characterisation, policy formulation and intent, program logic, and on-ground implementation. Finally, we demonstrate its utility through application to three contrasting Australian case studies: a community-based Integrated Catchment Management policy implementation; a resource information delivery system; and the development of a Decision Support System.     

基于排队论的城市垃圾箱最佳间距研究

针对城市垃圾箱最佳间距的研究不够精细的现状,本文通过建立排队论模型得到了可供不同城市参考的城市垃圾箱最佳间距参数表。通过对部分城市街道的垃圾箱摆放间距情况进行实地调查,运用层次分析法将影响垃圾箱间距分布的多重因素转化为单因素;建立了基于指数分布的数学模型,利用排队论分析单因素状态下的垃圾箱间距分布,得到了求解城市垃圾箱最佳间距的一般方法。     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Participants and non-participants of place-based groups: an assessment of attitudes and implications for public participation in water resource management

Policy-makers and public participation analysts face the question of who should be involved in environmental decision-making. Participants are often representatives of organized groups who share similar demographic and other characteristics. This raises concerns about the degree to which the interests and opinions of others are represented. The research presented here investigates the nature and degree of differences in environmental attitudes, specifically those toward water resource management efforts, among people who do and do not participate in place-based groups in metropolitan Portland, Oregon. Neighborhood associations and a watershed council were the focus of this research due to their involvement in land-use planning and resource activities. Thirty-four individual attitudinal judgments were evaluated, along with four indices representing attitudes toward resource protection goals, government, regulations, and economic measures. Survey findings revealed watershed council participants were more supportive of resource protection compared to others on all attitudinal dimensions except anthropocentric goals. In contrast, neighborhood association participants are relatively representative of non-participants except for heightened support for economic strategies. Participants in both groups exhibited higher socioeconomic status than non-participants. Written survey comments highlighted the perceived value of on-the-ground projects incorporating local input and feedback while interviews provided insights on how to expand participation in place-based groups and resource protection efforts.     

Against idealistic beliefs in the problem-solving capacities of integrated resource management

Integrated resource management (IRM) is currently implemented in many parts of the world. This article promotes a pragmatic interpretation and suggests that idealistic beliefs in the problem-solving capacities of IRM are not justified. Successful implementation and performance of IRM are primarily a function of the historical context into which a project is placed. A comparative analysis of several case studies in Western Canada provides evidence for this argument, and the results can be summarized in a conceptual model about integration in resource management. IRM is interpreted as a process of constructing an objective reality of integration for sectorial management decisions, and this construction involves the transformations of power structures. This article suggests several pragmatic conclusions for IRM practice.     

Risk management in the Federal Republic of Germany

Spectacular industrial accidents, such as the ones in Bhopal, Mexico City, and Basle, have in recent times made the risks associated with the modern chemicals industry unmistakably evident. It has been seen that effective emergency plans for the people living in the vicinity of a hazardous installation become particularly important. The situation of hazardous installations in the Federal Republic of Germany is reviewed and the three-stage safety system, which is established within the German Regulation on Major Industrial Accidents (Störfallverordnung), is described. The evaluation of the current practice shows a couple of problems, especially connected with off-site safety precautions. The disaster control teams are often ill-equipped and inadequately trained. There is a need for further establishment of detailed and specific emergency plans, especially in rural areas. It is expected that the updating of the Regulation on Major Industrial Accidents, which is at present being undertaken in the Federal Republic of Germany and the compilation of instructions for the competent authorities will contribute to better emergency plans for the protection of areas in the vicinity of hazardous industrial installations.     

Climate change and indigenous natural resource management: a review of socio-ecological interactions in the Alinytjara Wilurara NRM region

This article examines key socio-ecological interactions identified during a climate change vulnerability assessment in the Alinytjara Wilurara natural resources management (NRM) region of South Australia. The complex local socio-ecological interactions are highlighted to guide a response to the challenge of adapting to climate change within the region. Recognising several key desert drivers which perpetuate degraded socio-ecological systems, this article recommends that a range of strategies be employed simultaneously to enhance local environmental management in association with remote indigenous communities, including: linking people and NRM more closely; tracking funding but ensuring systems can withstand periods of limited financial support; developing cross-sectoral and cross-institutional links; empowering and engaging communities; communicating effectively; and actively supporting local and traditional environmental knowledge. Unless climate change adaptation responses within the region are conceptualised and enacted within the context of complex local socio-ecological systems, NRM will not improve and social vulnerability will increase.     

Accumulation of cadmium in the edible parts of six vegetable species grown in Cd-contaminated soils

Species difference in Cd accumulation is important for selection of agronomic technologies aimed at producing low-Cd vegetables. Six vegetable species (Chinese leek, pakchoi, carrot, radish, tomato and cucumber) were grown in pot and field experiments to study the accumulation of Cd under different conditions. In the field trial (Cd 2.55 mg kg(-1)), Cd concentrations in the edible parts ranged from 0.01 to 0.1 mg kg(-1) and were below the permissible limits (0.2 mg kg(-1) for pakchoi and leek; 0.1 mg kg(-1) for carrot and radish; 0.05 mg kg(-1) for cucumber and tomato), but exceeded the limit in pakchoi, Chinese leek, carrot and tomato at a Cd addition level of 2.0 mg kg(-1). Plant Cd concentrations increased linearly with the increasing concentration of Cd added to the soil, with the slope of the regression lines varying by 28-fold among the six species. The bioconcentration factor (BCF) varied substantially, and was much higher in the pot experiment than in the field trial. It is concluded that the vegetable species differed markedly in the Cd accumulation and species performed consistently under different growth conditions.     

Understanding the impact of democratic logics on participatory resource decision-making in New Zealand

This paper claims that participatory approaches to water resource management in New Zealand are highly influenced by how institutional and community actors understand and practise democracy, including indigenous Māori rights under the Treaty of Waitangi. Drawing on case study analysis from a six-year research programme in which the aim was to evaluate existing and new methods for participatory decision-making, we highlight how different but co-existing democratic beliefs and practices, referred to as democratic logics can shape relationships between governance/decision-making bodies and affected communities. One particular case is examined in detail to illustrate how the various “logics” were strengthened, extended and challenged through participatory research methodologies. Our key message is that revealing and articulating existing democratic logics for participation can help promote and facilitate new participatory approaches, as well as increase robustness and community buy-in to local government decision-making.     

Application of environmental risk assessment for strategic decision-making in coastal areas: case studies in China

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool for analyzing potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts, and has found wide application in supporting decision-making processes over the last two decades. However, to date there has been no interrelated application of ERA to support the processes of strategic decision-making (SDM), especially in coastal areas.

In this paper, we attempt to verify the feasibility of the proposed integrated ERA–SDM approach and its methodology by applying it to two case studies (in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay) of the principal coastal functional zoning (PCFZ, a kind of SDM and similar to the coastal and marine spatial planning in western). The results show that the integrated ERA–SDM approach could integrate ERA into the entire SDM process, directly support the PCFZ, and avoid or mitigate dire environmental risk that can be introduced by SDM processes.     

Assessing the economic impact of invasive species: the case of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solsitialis L.) in the rangelands of Idaho, USA

Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solsitialis L.) is an invasive weed that creates problems for the management of Idaho's rangelands. A bioeconomic approach combined with an input-output economic model is used to estimate direct and secondary economic costs of the weed in relation to its interference with agricultural and non-agricultural benefits that rangelands provide. Direct economic costs of the infestations were estimated to be of 8.2 million '05 dollars per year, and secondary costs of 4.5 million '05 dollars per year, for a total of 12.7 million '05 dollars; agricultural related economic impacts accounted for 79% of this total cost, and non-agricultural for 21%.     

Design of an institutional decision-making process: the case of urban water management

Urban water infrastructure expenditures cause a major financial burden to municipalities. In the opinion of many policy-makers, public funds may alleviate this burden and facilitate environmental policies. However, practice has shown that despite ambitious policies, funding often follows traditional cost-dominated thinking. In Austria, national policy-makers were interested in new guidelines for funding that increase the transparency of the planning, ensure the adequate treatment of ecological problems, and foster stakeholder involvement, but keep the process as simple as possible, and require minimal changes of the current guidelines. An interdisciplinary project team conducted such a study. Its outcome was tested in two pilot projects. Based on these experiences, policy-makers finally implemented the recommended guidelines for the funding of communal urban water infrastructure projects. A general observation about the policy-making process was a conservative attitude of policy-makers. They prefer simple constraints (precautionary principle) and flexible negotiations (delegation) to complex assessment and decision-aid methodologies.