Sequential climate decisions under uncertainty: An integrated framework

We develop an integrated framework for evaluating sequential greenhouse gas abatement policies under uncertainty. The analysis integrates information concerning the magnitude, timing, and impacts of climate change with data on the likely effectiveness and cost of possible response options. Reduced-scale representations of the global climate system, drawn from the MIT Integrated Global System Model, form the empirical basis of the analysis. The method is illustrated in application to emissions control policies of the form considered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Reconciling National and Global Priorities in Adaptation to Climate Change: With an Illustration from Uganda

Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.     

Scientific aspects of the framework convention on climate change and national greenhouse gas inventories

Though the principles of the Earth's greenhouse effect have been known for well over a century, it is only recently that advances in climate research have indicated that significant and possibly costly climate change, due to growing emissions of greenhouse gases and their precursors by human activity, is a real possibility. Current estimates of the global human-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are presented, though many sources remain poorly known or understood. The compilation of national greenhouse inventories as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is likely in the longer term to help improve such global estimates, as long as comparable methodologies are used. The development of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is described, emphasizing the strategies employed to gain wide international participation.     

温室气体排放数据库系统设计与实现

以温度升高为主要特征的气候变化越来越影响到人类的可持续发展,温室气体排放系数的收集与整理对于该研究具有重要意义。文章在充分调研IPCC指南及相关排放系数文献的基础上,对温室气体排放系数进行采集与整理,其中对电力行业排放系数的收集细化到不同技术水平、煤质来源水平和区域水平,并在电力行业排放系数收集的基础上,对其他主要工业行业的温室气体排放系数进行收集,完成了数据库设计与建库工作。主要包括四类数据:"温室气体排放系数数据库"、"活动水平数据库"、"电力行业污染物排放数据库"、"元数据库"。在此基础上设计并开发了数据库软件系统,实现了对温室气体排放系数的统一管理与访问。经实际运行,证明该系统能有效管理温室气体排放系数数据,提供数据的分析应用,为温室气体核算和提高环境监管能力提供科学数据和支撑作用。     

Integrating Impacts into Adaptation Measures

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described.The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies.The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change.The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries.Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.     

On the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions: an application of FUND

This paper presents the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), an integrated assessment model of climate change, and discusses selected results. FUND is a nine‐region model of the world economy and its interactions with climate, running in time steps of one year from 1990 to 2200. The model consists of scenarios for economy and population, which are perturbed by climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. Each region optimizes its net present welfare. Policy variables are energy and carbon efficiency improvement, and sequestering carbon dioxide in forests. It is found that reducing conventional air pollution is a major reason to abate carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is an additional reason to abate emissions. Reducing and changing energy use is preferred as an option over sequestering carbon. Under non‐cooperation, free riding as well as assurance behaviour is observed in the model. The scope for joint implementation is limited. Under cooperation, optimal emission abatement is (slightly) higher than under non‐cooperation, but the global coalition is not self‐enforcing while side payments are insufficient. Optimal emission control under non‐cooperation is less than currently discussed under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but higher than observed in practice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The global environment monitoring system (GEMS): Some recent developments

GEMS is an established, operational fact, a fact that has been with us for ten years. In 1975, following the instructions of the UN Conference on the Human Environment, UNEP moved into the field of environmental monitoring by establishing at its Nairobi Headquaters a Programme Activity Centre for GEMS. The role given to this Programme Activity Centre is to co-ordinate the disparate international monitoring activities that are conducted thoughout the world, particulary within the UN system, and to advise the Environment Fund of UNEP on how best to support and stimulate the initiation of new activities or the expansion of ongoing ones through the allocation of financial resources to these activities.The data gathered within the GEMS networks are used for assessment of the state of the environment and its trends, for better, more rational management of the environment and its natural resources. Ten years after it began the United Nations GEMS effort can be seen to be both fully operational and global in scope.     

Reporting emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada

Non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases are considered in Canada's National Report on Climate Change: Actions to Meet Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. By including all major greenhouse gases and their anthropogenic sources and sinks using best available science, the Report provides a practical illustration of the comprehensive approach policy to implementing the Convention's requirements. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, the Report includes information on other sources and sinks for carbon dioxide, and for methane and nitrous oxide. Other gases considered include polyflourocarbons, hydroflourocarbons, and the primary tropospheric ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Current Global Warming Potential indices are used to compare and integrate the best estimates of climate change impacts of the major greenhouse gases. The presentation of emission data is intended to be transparent and comparable. The relative quality of the data for various gases and sources is indicated. The existence of environmental, economic, and other benefits to limiting emissions of all greenhouse gases, in addition to carbon dioxide, should be recognized. Continuing assessments and actions on non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, both nationally and internationally, are suggested.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity: Co-Networks and Networking

Canada responded to the Global Biodiversity Convention by completing the Canadian Biodiversity Strategy in 1995. At the same time, Environment Canada also completed a national Science Assessment on Biodiversity. During this period, the Smithsonian Institution, in partnership with Parks and Environment Canada, initiated the implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring program in Canada. Under the auspices of the United Nations Man and the Biosphere Program, the SI/MAB monitoring protocols and plots have spread across Canada at an unprecedented rate. National champions in the science and educational sectors, working within an inter-disciplinary ecological framework, have guided the development, education, quality control and sharing of atmosphere-biodiversity observations electronically.Atmospheric-Biodiversity Networks and Networking have traditionally operated within separate mandates with little degree of integration. Air-Bio Networks were designed within an integrated framework to better understand the atmospheric stress on biodiversity and the adaptation actions, nationally and regionally. Detailed examples of the cumulative effects of climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, ground-level ozone, suspended particulate matter and hazardous air pollutants on biodiversity will be discussed using a Southern Ontario case study. In addition, recommendations will be presented for future paired SI/MAB plots, linked networks and networking for adaptation within the context of climate, chemical and ecological gradients.     

The exposure commitment method with application to environmental mercury

Exposure commitment is a measure of the concentration and duration of a pollutant in an environmental medium. It is the basis of a time-independent method of pollutant pathway analysis. Applied to environmental mercury, contributions to concentrations in the human body from inhalation and from ingestion of terrestrial and aquatic foods areevaluated.Staff member of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The author's views do not necessarily represent those of UNEP.     

EMAP Overview: Objectives, Approaches, and Achievements

This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change convened in Costa Rica in 1998. Specifically, this paper also summarizes the adaptive management science issues and, in many cases, sectoral options. The Workshop, organized by Canada and Costa Rica, involved more than 200 experts and focused on adaptation science, adaptive management and adaptation options for climate variability and change.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture,land-use change,and forestry in the Gambia

The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period, some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar, Senegal, and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques, as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture, forestry, and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO₂) is emitted most, with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH₄), 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO), 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N₂O), 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993, it was found that CO₂ will contribute 75%, CH₄ about 24.5%, and N₂O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data. Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world, most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely to introduce some uncertainties into the results of the calculations. Factors and coefficients that are country-or region-specific are likely to provide more accurate results and should be developed. The surveys were conducted either during the wet season or just at the end of the wet season. This seasonal factor should contribute to variations in the results, particularly in the livestock numbers and composition survey. Use of one-time survey data is also likely to introduce uncertainty into the results.     

Plastic pollution in freshwater ecosystems: macro-, meso-, and microplastic debris in a floodplain lake

Plastic pollution is considered an important environmental problem by the United Nations Environment Programme, and it is identified, alongside climate change, as an emerging issue that might affect biological diversity and human health. However, despite research efforts investigating plastics in oceans, relatively little studies have focused on freshwater systems. The aim of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution, types, and characteristics of macro-, meso-, and microplastic fragments in shoreline sediments of a freshwater lake. Food wrappers (mainly polypropylene and polystyrene), bags (high- and low-density polyethylene), bottles (polyethylene terephthalate), and disposable Styrofoam food containers (expanded polystyrene) were the dominant macroplastics recorded in this study. Contrary to other studies, herein macroplastic item surveys would not serve as surrogates for microplastic items. This is disadvantageous since macroplastic surveys are relatively easier to conduct. Otherwise, an average of 25 mesoplastics (mainly expanded polystyrene) and 704 microplastic particles (diverse resins) were recorded per square meter in sandy sediments. Comparisons with other studies from freshwater and marine beaches indicated similar relevance of plastic contamination, demonstrating for the first time that plastic pollution is a serious problem in the Paraná floodplain lakes. This study is also valuable from a social/educational point of view, since plastic waste has been ignored in the Paraná catchment as a pollutant problem, and therefore, the outcome of the current study is a relevant contribution for decision makers.     

Internationalization of EIA in a new marine biodiversity agreement under the Law of the Sea Convention: A proposal for a tiered approach to review and decision-making

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is one of the four main elements of the package being negotiated in the Intergovernmental Conference to develop an international legally binding instrument under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ agreement). “Internationalization” of EIA under the agreement, which partly relates to the international community's role in oversight and outcome of the process, remains a contentious issue that requires continued consideration. Less controversial aspects of internationalization in the EIA process are internationalization of consultation and dissemination of information. They are shown to be critical to achieving quality outcomes and encouraging transparency and accountability. This paper addresses a third dimension of internationalization, relating to review and decision-making, which is proving to be the most divisive in the negotiations to date. This aspect of internationalization is fundamental to allowing decisions taken on proposed activities to be seen as legitimate but concerns exist about the bureaucracy and costs that the process may entail, as well as potential interference with sovereign rights of States Parties under UNCLOS. This paper advances a proposal for internationalization of review and decision-making under the BBNJ agreement that attempts to bridge the divide evident going into the 4th session of the Inter-governmental Conference in 2021.     

Greenhouse gas emission inventory for Senegal, 1991

The first greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for Senegal, for the year 1991, were produced according to the draft IPCC/OECD guidelines for national inventories of GHGs. Despite certain discrepancies, nonavailability of data, the quality of some of the data collected, and the methodology, the estimates provide a provisional basis for Senegal to fulfill its obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This inventory reveals that GHG emissions in Senegal, like those in many developing countries, can mainly be attributed to the use of biomass for energy, land-use change and forestry, and savanna burning. Taking into account the direct global warming potential of the main GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O), Senegal's emissions are estimated at 17.6 Tg ECO₂. The major gases emitted are CO₂ (61% of GHG emissions), followed by CH₄ (35%) and N₂O (4%). Energy accounts for 45% of total emissions (12% from fossil energy and 33% from traditional biomass energy); land-use change and forests, 18%; agriculture, 24%; waste, 12%; and industry, 1%.     

Community Exchange and Training in the Suid Bokkeveld: A UNCCD Pilot Project to Enhance Livelihoods and Natural Resource Management

Community knowledge exchanges have played a key role in developmental processes in the Suid Bokkeveld community of South Africa. Two exchange visits were undertaken with the support of the Department of Agriculture and an NGO, the Environmental Monitoring Group, which have led to local economic development and enhanced capacity to manage natural resources in a sustainable manner. These pilot projects were undertaken within the framework of the Community Exchange and Training Programme of the Global Mechanism of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The methodology applied included facilitation to develop a community-based vision for development, in terms of which the community exchange process was designed. A Facilitation Team of service providers conducted preparatory workshops, and identified potential partner communities. Two exchange visits were carried out, one focused on Rooibos production and marketing, and the other on community-based eco-tourism. Following report-back and planning workshops, emerging community-driven initiatives were supported through their formative stages. The initiatives have not only resulted in enhanced livelihoods, but the methodology has also been applied widely in a number of different contexts.     

Effects of climate and landcover change on stream discharge in the Ozark Highlands,USA

Stream discharge of a watershed is affected and altered by climate and landcover changes. These effects vary depending on the magnitude and interaction of the changes, and need to be understood so that local water resource availability can be evaluated and socioeconomic development within a watershed be pursued and managed in a way sustainable with the local water resources. In this study, the landcover and climate change effects on stream discharge from the Jacks Fork River basin in the Ozark Highlands of the south-central United States were examined in three phases: site observation and data collection, model calibration and simulation, and model experiment and analysis. Major results of the study show that climate fluctuations between wet and dry extremes resulted in the same change of the basin discharge regardless of the landcover condition in the basin. On the other hand, under a specified climate condition landcover change from a grassland basin to a fully forested basin only resulted in about one half of the discharge change caused by the climate variation. Furthermore, when landcover change occurred simultaneously with climate variation, the basin discharge change amplified significantly and became larger than the combined discharge changes caused by the climate and landcover change alone, a result indicating a synergistic effect of landcover and climate change on basin discharge variability. Agricultural Research Division, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Contribution Number 13437.Qi Hu: Corresponding author: Dr. Qi Hu, Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, 237 L.W. Chase Hall, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728, USA. E-mail: qhu2@unl.edu.     

Connecting Research to Combating Desertification

With and without the encouragement of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and its Committee on Science and Technology, scientific research has been undertaken throughout the drylands with the expectation of contributing to combating desertification. Little of this research has been applied in developing countries for its identified purpose. The main reason for this is the limited translation of scientific research into an accessible format for application by development agencies or rural communities.