The impact of prenatal diagnosis on the occurrence of chromosome abnormalities

From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future.     

Maternal serum thyroid antibodies in early pregnancy and fetal Down's syndrome

Thyroid antibodies were measured in mid-trimester antenatal serum samples from 77 pregnancies affected by fetal Down's syndrome and 385 unaffected control pregnancies. Using a haemagglutination technique, thyroglobulin antibodies were detected in 5·2 per cent of cases (4) and 2·9 per cent of controls (11), and thyroid microsomal antibodies were detected in 22 per cent (17) and 15 per cent (59), respectively. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for thyroglobulin antibodies and a cut-off level of 50 KIU/1, positive results were found in 25 per cent of cases (19) and 22 per cent of controls (84). Using an ELISA for thyroid microsomal antibodies and the same cut-off level, the proportions were 52 per cent (40) and 39 per cent (149), respectively. While not statistically significant, the differences were consistent with the previously reported increased levels of thyroid antibody found in nonpregnant women who had had pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome.     

Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.     

Prenatal ultrasonic diagnosis of obstructive bowel disease: A retrospective analysis

Fetal obstructive bowel disease was diagnosed in 29 patients at 22–37 weeks (median 32 weeks) of gestation, seven (24 per cent) of whom also displayed other anomalies. Polyhydramnios was present in 20/29 cases (69 per cent). An abnormal karyotype existed in 7/29 cases (24 per cent), of which six were diagnosed prenatally (trisomy 21, n = 5; 69, XXX, n = 1) and one postnatally (trisomy 21). There was always an association with the ultrasonic ‘double bubble’ sign. Obstructive bowel disease was confirmed postnatally in 20/29 (69 per cent) cases, i.e., oesophageal atresia (n = 1), duodenal obstruction (n = 12), and small bowel obstruction (n = 7). Other anomalies existed in 6/29 (21 per cent) cases, i.e., multicystic kidney (n = 1) and multiple congenital anomalies (n = 5). The perinatal mortality rate was 35 per cent (7/20).     

Discordance between prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis and outcome of pregnancy

From 1.3.73 to 30.9.80 5580 women had an amniocentesis performed here or elsewhere; fetal chromosome analyses were carried out in this laboratory. We found 112 abnormal karyotypes (2 per cent) out of 5591 chromosome analyses. In 40 women (0.7 per cent) no cytogenetic diagnosis was obtained. Follow-up was successful in 99.5 per cent. Nine cases are reported in detail: Three cases had discrepancy between the karyotype in amniotic fluid and peripheral blood after delivery, two of these cases turned out to be 46,XX (male) while the third was prenatally determined as trisomy 21, but had a 46,XX karyotype at birth. Six cases had discrepancy between the karyotype in amniotic fluid and the phenotypic outcome at birth/abortion. One case was a prenatally undetected 45,X/46,XY mosaicism; one case was an unexplained 45,X male fetus; two cases were prenatally determined as trisomy 21, but at abortion a normal karyotype was determined and in two cases maternal cells were probably examined. The incidence of cytogeneric errors in this study was very low.     

First-trimester maternal serum schwangerschafts protein 1 (SP1) in pregnancies associated with chromosomal anomalies

The relationship between first-trimester maternal serum Schwangerschafts protein 1 (SP1) and the karyotype of the pregnancy was examined in 692 women who underwent chorionic villus biopsy at 6–12 weeks. There were 30 pregnancies with abnormal karyotypes, consisting of 14 Down's syndrome (DS), eight trisomy 18, and eight other anomalies, two of which were mosaics. The normal ranges and medians for gestation were defined from the 662 cases in which the karyotype was normal. The median SP1 (0·5 MOM) of the abnormal group was significantly lower than that of the normal group (10 MOM). This relationship was maintained for the DS pregnancies (0·4 MOM) and for anomalies other than trisomy 18 (0·43 MOM) but not trisomy 18 (1·1 MOM). It is possible that the use of SP1 as a screening test for chromosome anomalies in the first trimester could have a 43 per cent detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate.     

Amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels and prenatal diagnosis of autosomal trisomies

Pregnancies with fetal trisomy 21 have been associated with low amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels (AFAFP). This observation led to the suggestion that low AFAFP levels be used as a criterion for completion of a chromosomal analysis in patients who are not otherwise at increased risk for a fetal chromosome abnormality and in whom karyotyping might not have been completed for economic reasons. In order to assess the usefulness of such criteria, we reviewed the AFAFP levels of 90 cases of fetal trisomy 21, 23 cases of trisomy 18, and 10 cases of trisomy 13. These were compared with 2400 control samples with normal chromosome constitution. AFAFP levels were generally lower in pregnancies with trisomy 21, showing a median value of 0·72 MoM. However, 40 per cent of the trisomy 21 samples had AFAFP values greater than 0·8 MoM and 20 per cent were over 1·0 MoM. These data imply that over 50 per cent of Down syndrome cases might have been missed using a cut-off level of 0·70 MoM for completion of chromosome analysis. Using a higher cut-off level will leave only a small percentage of samples unkaryotyped. The distribution of AFP levels in trisomy 13 and 18 is no different from controls; we therefore believe that fetal karyotyping should be completed in every amniotic fluid sample obtained.     

Screening for Down's syndrome in older women based on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and age: Preliminary results

We report the results of screening for Down's syndrome (DS) in older women using published rate schedules based on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and age. Five hundred and seventeen patients aged 35 years and older, who were referred for a mid-trimester genetic amniocentesis, were first tested for MSAFP and then underwent an amniocentesis. Individual risks for DS, combining MSAFP and age, were derived using three different published rate schedules. Theoretical selection for amniocentesis was made using the cut-off level of the average collective risk for a 35-year-old woman (1:380 at live birth or 1:270 at amniocentesis). Six affected pregnancies (five with DS and one with trisomy 18), which were diagnosed prenatally, were all found to be at a higher risk than the specified cut-off. These cases would have been diagnosed in any event, using any of the published rate schedules. According to these rate schedules, between 39 and 45 per cent of the patients would be in the lower risk group and therefore would have been counselled not to undergo amniocentesis. Further studies should be conducted in order to reach conclusive screening policies for DS in older women.     

Prospective intervention trial of a screening protocol to identify fetal trisomy 18 using maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol,and human chorionic gonadotropin

Two prenatal centres in New England, routinely using a screening protocol for fetal Down syndrome that included maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements in combination with maternal age, adopted a separate screening protocol for trisomy 18. That protocol identified a pregnancy as being at high risk when AFP, uE3, and hCG measurements all fell at or below specified cut-offs (0.75, 0.60, and 0.55 multiples of the median, respectively), regardless of maternal age. Among the first 19 491 women screened, 98 (0.5 per cent) were found to have values which placed them in the high-risk category. Four of these women were subsequently found not to be pregnant. In two others, samples from non-pregnant individuals were found to have been incorrectly submitted for analysis in place of the samples from the pregnant women. All of the remaining 92 women were counselled and offered amniocentesis and fetal karyotyping. Eighty-eight (96 per cent) accepted. Karyotypes or birth outcomes were available on all 92 pregnancies. Six cases of trisomy 18 and one case of Turner syndrome were identified by karyotype. One case of trisomy 18 was identified for every 14 unaffected pregnancies offered amniocentesis. In the present prospective study, an estimated 85 per cent of the cases of trisomy 18 were identified. However, given the small number ofcases (six), the 95 per cent confidence interval for the detection rate is broad (40–95 per cent).     

Trisomy 20 mosaicism in prenatal diagnosis–a review and update

A total of 66 cases with prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 20 mosaicism was reviewed. Since the majority of cases (85 per cent) was associated with grossly normal phenotype and the abnormalities noted in 15 per cent of cases were inconsistent and rather non-specific, no causal relationship between trisomy 20 mosaicism and a specific malformation syndrome can be established. The possiblity of an association between an abnormal phenotype and a high percentage of trisomy 20 cells (> 60 per cent) must be considered preliminary and be viewed with caution. The fact that cells with trisomy 20 have not been recovered from blood cultures and were detected more frequently from specific fetal tissues, (such as kidney, rectum, oesophagus), and from placental tissues, suggests that trisomy 20 is more likely to be confined to certain fetal organs and to extra-embryonic tissues. This review calls for the collection of more data on all cases of trisomy 20 mosaicism diagnosed prenatally, in order to provide more accurate information to the prospective parents.     

Phenotypic analysis of fetal blood leucocytes: Potential for prenatal diagnosis of immunodeficiency disorders

Recent technological advances allow the detection and quantitation of subsets of leucocytes using monoclonal antibodies. We have taken advantage of this to study the ontogeny of fetal blood leucocytes, using very small blood samples obtained at fetoscopy. By 14 weeks gestation T cells represent 35 per cent or more of fetal leucocytes and the distribution of the helper/inducer and suppressor/cytotoxic subsets is similar to that of adults. B lymphocytes before 161/2 weeks are low (4–20 per cent), but rise to a mean of 28 per cent in 17–26 week fetuses. Granulocytic cells, many of which are phenotypically immature, represent 18–34 per cent of total leucocytes. The methodology employed is very reliable and offers the opportunity for the prenatal diagnosis of some immunodeficiency disorders, since using the same reagents we have diagnosed children with severe combined immunodeficiency shortly after birth.     

Expected,prenatally discovered,and born cases of Down syndrome in Denmark during the period 1980–1998

In order to elucidate the consistency between generally used age-dependent risk values for Down syndrome (DS) and estimates of the probability of miscarriage in Down pregnancies we have compared expected numbers with estimated numbers of births with DS in Denmark had no intervention at all been carried out. The expected numbers were calculated from the distribution of newborn children according to maternal age combined with the age-related risk of DS. The estimated numbers of children that actually would have been born without any intervention were estimated from observed numbers of cases of DS, i.e. the cases born plus – with corrections because of the high probability of miscarriage in DS pregnancies – a proportion of those cases discovered prenatally. The analysis was carried out separately for mothers aged 35 years or older and for younger mothers. We found a high degree of compatibility between expected and estimated numbers, probably with a minor underestimation of the expected values for the older mothers. The performance of DS screening in Denmark in the period under consideration (1980–1998) is discussed in relation to the figures presented. Despite the fact that 11.8% of all pregnancies were subjected to an invasive diagnostic procedure, only about 38% of all births with DS were prevented. This means that in the period 1990–1998, reluctance to accept serological screening has indirectly resulted in the birth of almost 300 cases of DS in Denmark and at the same time the miscarriage of an unreasonable high number of normal fetuses. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein,gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase,and autosomal trisomies

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) concentration and gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase (GGT) activity have been analysed in amniotic fluid from a series of 65 pregnancies with autosomal trisomies. AFP values were reduced on average to 60 per cent of normal in cases of trisomy 21, but were not significantly different from normal in cases of trisomies 18 and 13. GGT activities were uniformly lower (44 per cent of normal) for all types of autosomal trisomy. A review of the literature indicates that over 85 per cent of Down's pregnancies but only 39 per cent of trisomy 18 and 13 pregnancies have amniotic fluid AFP levels below the normal median value, while the corresponding figures for GGT are 91 per cent for Down's syndrome and 96 per cent for trisomies 18 and 13.     

Adaptive-filtering of trisomy 21: risk of Down syndrome depends on family size and age of previous child

The neonatal incidence rate of Down syndrome (DS) is well-known to accelerate strongly with maternal age. This non-linearity renders mere accumulation of defects at recombination during prolonged first meiotic prophase implausible as an explanation for DS rate increase with maternal age, but might be anticipated from chromosomal drive (CD) for trisomy 21. Alternatively, as there is selection against genetically disadvantaged embryos, the screening system that eliminates embryos with trisomy 21 might decay with maternal age. In this paper, we provide the first evidence for relaxed filtering stringency (RFS) to represent an adaptive maternal response that could explain accelerating DS rates with maternal age. Using historical data, we show that the proportion of aberrant live births decrease with increased family size in older mothers, that inter-birth intervals are longer before affected neonates than before normal ones, and that primiparae exhibit elevated levels of DS incidence at higher age. These findings are predicted by adaptive RFS but cannot be explained by the currently available alternative non-adaptive hypotheses, including CD. The identification of the relaxation control mechanism and therapeutic restoration of a stringent screen may have considerable medical implications.     

Serum PAPP-A and free β-hCG are first-trimester screening markers for down syndrome

Serum measurements of pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and the free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) subunit were made in 13 women with Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies and six other women with fetal aneuploidy ascertained at chorionic villus sampling (CVS), as well as 89 women with contemporaneous normal control pregnancies. Median serum PAPP-A measurements (0·31 MOM, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 0·22–0·65 vs. normal 1·06, 95 per cent CI 0·89–1·20) were lower and free β-hCG subunit measurements (1·13 MOM, 95 per cent CI 0·93–2·63 vs. normal 0·91, 95 per cent CI 0·79–1·03) were higher at statistically significant levels. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the highest sensitivity for detection, 71·2 per cent (95 per cent CI 54·7–87·6 per cent), was for depressed PAPP-A levels; the combination of low serum PAPP-A levels, maternal age, and elevated free β-hCG levels yielded a detection rate of 78·9 per cent (95 per cent CI 64·9–92·8 per cent) of the affected pregnancies at 8–12 weeks' gestation.     

Maternal urinary β-core fragment of hCG/creatinine ratios and fetal chromosomal abnormalities in the second trimester of pregnancy

Our aim was to evaluate the potential value of the ratio of the maternal urinary beta-core fragment of human chorionic gonadotropin (βC-hCG) to creatinine (Cr) in discriminating between normal pregnancies and pregnancies associated with fetal chromosomal abnormalities. We hypothesized that pregnancies with fetal chromosomal abnormalities had abnormal quantities of βC-hCG in the urine. The aims of the present study were to investigate retrospectively whether maternal urinary ratios of βC-hCG/Cr are abnormal in women carrying fetuses with chromosome aberrations and to determine normative median values and a reference range for βC-hCG/Cr between 14 and 19 weeks' gestation. Maternal urinary βC-hCG and Cr concentrations were measured in 150 healthy women from 14 to 19 weeks and compared with ten cases of fetal chromosomal abnormalities matched for gestational age. The preliminary cut-off points corresponded to 0·29 multiple of the normal median (MOM) and 2·83 MOM, which were equivalent to the tenth and 90th centiles of the normal range. Of ten cases of fetal chromosomal abnormalities, one out of one (100 per cent) case with trisomy 18 and three of four (75 per cent) cases of variant 9 chromosome had low βC-hCG/Cr (≤0·29 MOM). One of five (20 per cent) cases with Down syndrome had elevated βC-hCG/Cr (≤2·83 MOM). Urinary βC-hCG/Cr ratios obtained in the second trimester may be useful for improved detection efficiency of Down syndrome, trisomy 18, and inversion of chromosome 9. Second-trimester maternal urinary βC-hCG/Cr should be investigated further as a potential marker for fetal chromosome anomalies.     

Estimating the risk of a fetal autosomal trisomy at mid-trimester using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and age: A retrospective study of 142 pregnancies

Risks appropriate for mid-trimester prenatal screening for autosomal trisomies have been estimated from a combination of maternal age and maternal serum (MS) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 16–20 weeks gestation. Published data on the frequency of Down's syndrome births relative to maternal age were modified to include the additional age-related frequency of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 cases to provide an overall risk for an autosomal trisomy at midtrimester. MSAFP results from a retrospective study of 142 affected (114 trisomy 21, 19 trisomy 18, and 9 trisomy 13)and 113 000 unaffected pregnancies were converted to multiples of the appropriate gestational median (MOM). The AFP levels in the autosomal trisomy pregnancies were found to be significantly reduced at 0.72 MOM of the unaffected pregnancies. Risks (likelihood ratios) were derived from the overlapping log Gaussian distributions for affected and unaffected pregnancies and combined with maternal age risks to give the overall odds of an affected pregnancy. A mid-trimester cut-off risk of 1:280 gave an estimated 37 per cent detection rate for autosomal trisomies in the west of Scotland population for a follow-up (false-positive) rate of 6.6 per cent. These figures compare with a 30 per cent detection and 6.7 per cent false-positive rate if age 35 years and over is used as the sole criterion for selection of at-risk pregnancies.     

Confined placental mosaicism in CVS and pregnancy outcome

The perinatal outcome of 26 patients with confined placental mosaicism (CPM) detected in chorionic villus sampling (CVS) who wished to continue their pregnancies was compared with that of two controls per patient matched for age and parity (n=52). There were no significant differences in birth weight or gestational age at delivery between patients with CPM and controls. There were no cases of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) in the CPM patients as compared with two (2/52, 3·8 per cent) in the control group (P>0·05). There was no significant increase in fetal loss between the study group (1/26, 3·6 per cent) and the controls (1/52, 1·9 per cent) (P>0·05).     

Maternal age-specific risks for trisomies at 9—14 weeks' gestation

This study provides data on the incidence of fetal trisomies 21, 18, and 13 at 9–14 weeks' gestation in women aged 35–45 years and estimates of maternal age-specific risks in women aged 20–45 years. Our data from 5814 singleton pregnancies undergoing first-trimester karyotyping for the sole indication of maternal age ⩾ 35 years were combined with those from two previous reports and the incidence of the trisomies was calculated from a total of 15 793 pregnancies. Comparison of incidences at 9–14 weeks' gestation with published data at 15–20 weeks' gestation and in livebirths demonstrated that at birth the maternal age-specific incidence of trisomy 21 is 33 per cent lower than at 15–20 weeks' gestation and 54 per cent lower than at 9–14 weeks' gestation. Furthermore, the relative frequency of trisomies 18 and 13 decreases from 30 per cent at 9–14 weeks to 22 per cent at 15–20 weeks and 14 per cent at birth.     

Prenatal detection of trisomy 9 mosaicism

Chromosomal mosaicism in amniotic fluid cells poses a serious dilemma in prenatal diagnosis since the observation may represent: (1) pseudomosaicism—an inconsequential tissue culture artefact; or (2) true mosaicism—occurring in approximately 0.0 per cent of amniocenteses with a significant impact on pregnancy outcome. Mosaicism for trisomy 9 was observed in an amniotic fluid specimen obtained for advanced maternal age with two cell lines [46,XX (46 per cent)/47,XX, + 9 (54 per cent)] present in each of four culture flasks. Since more than 75 per cent of newborns with trisomy 9 mosaicism have complex cardiac malformations, a fetal echocardiogram was obtained at 20 weeks' gestation and interpreted as normal. A fetal blood sample (22 weeks' gestation) disclosed only a single trisomy 9 cell among the 100 metaphases analysed. However, a second fetal echocardiogram performed at the time of blood sampling suggested a non-specific cardiac anomaly. Fetal autopsy following elective pregnancy termination revealed several malformations including severe micrognathia, persistence of the left superior vena cava, and skeletal anomalies. Cytogenetic studies of cell cultures derived from several fetal tissues demonstrated trisomy 9 ranging from 12 to 24 per cent.