Effects of topography on simulated net primary productivity at landscape scale

Local topography significantly affects spatial variations of climatic variables and soil water movement in complex terrain. Therefore, the distribution and productivity of ecosystems are closely linked to topography. Using a coupled terrestrial carbon and hydrological model (BEPS-TerrainLab model), the topographic effects on the net primary productivity (NPP) are analyzed through four modelling experiments for a 5700 km(2) area in Baohe River basin, Shaanxi Province, northwest of China. The model was able to capture 81% of the variability in NPP estimated from tree rings, with a mean relative error of 3.1%. The average NPP in 2003 for the study area was 741 gCm(-2)yr(-1) from a model run including topographic effects on the distributions of climate variables and lateral flow of ground water. Topography has considerable effect on NPP, which peaks near 1350 m above the sea level. An elevation increase of 100 m above this level reduces the average annual NPP by about 25 gCm(-2). The terrain aspect gives rise to a NPP change of 5% for forests located below 1900 m as a result of its influence on incident solar radiation. For the whole study area, a simulation totally excluding topographic effects on the distributions of climatic variables and ground water movement overestimated the average NPP by 5%.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.     

秦皇岛市气候变化对可持续发展的影响及对策

秦皇岛市46年来气候变暖变干,年平均气温提高1.8℃,≥10℃年积温增加11.4％,无霜期延长22天,但年平均降水量却减少11.5％。这对农业和工业的影响弊大于利,对旅游业的影响则有利有弊。为此应趋利避害,加强水资源的开源节流,发展节水经济和循环经济,发展休闲度假旅游,延长旺季。     

The future of water in Australia: The potential effects of climate change and ozone depletion on Australian water quality,quantity and treatability

Water is a resource that is essential for all life on Earth. An exponentially growing human population, in addition to unprecedented industrial and technological development, threaten the availability and quality of this resource. Climate change and ozone depletion are two major environmental problems facing mankind today. These problems have the potential to further strain currently available freshwater resources. Recent research has shown that climate change and ozone depletion are linked phenomena and their interaction exacerbates their impact. Changes in precipitation, surface runoff, solar UV radiation, temperatures, and evaporation are some of the predicted outcomes of climate change and ozone depletion. They influence the biogeochemical cycles and aquatic ecosystems in lakes and rivers, and alter the character of natural organic matter (NOM) and, consequently, they have the potential to affect the quality, quantity and treatability of our water resources. Given these uncertainties, and the need to mitigate the consequences of climate change and ozone depletion, the issues of changing water quality, quantity and treatability cannot be ignored by Australian governments and water utilities.     

华北农牧交错带气候生产力时空变化特征——以大同市为例

以华北农牧交错带为切入点,选取晋北长城沿线大同市8个气象站点,利用线性趋势分析、5年滑动、M-K检验以及Thormthwaite模型,分析了近38年来大同市气候变化及其气候生产力的演变特征.结果表明:①近38年大同市气温呈现显著增加趋势,且在1994年发生突变.②降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势.③气候生产力呈现缓慢增加趋势,出现南部高于北部,东西方向上呈现由中心向四周递增.④暖湿气候的气候生产力呈现正距平,最适合作物生长;冷干气候的气候生产力呈现负距平,最不适合作物生长.现阶段气候暖干化趋势显著,因此研究气候变化对气候生产力有重要意义.     

Energy analysis of nonmarket values of the Mississippi Delta

An energy analysis was used to estimate nonmarket values under various land cover scenarios in the Mississippi Delta. Land loss since 1900 has led to a decline in nonmarket values from $3.1 billion/year in 1900 to $2.5 billion in 1990, resulting in a total loss of $29.4 billion. This loss is concentrated in the Barataria-Terrebonne basins, where nonmarket value has dropped from $1.6 billion/year in 1956 to $1.3 billion/year in 1988. Although values are projected to increase in the Atchafalaya basin (from $723 million/year in 1988 to $756 million/year in 2058), total nonmarket value for the Louisiana coast is projected to decrease to $2.1 billion/year under currently approved levels of restoration.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.     

Climate Convention Implementation: An Opportunity for the Pacific Island Nations to Move Toward Sustainable Energy Systems

This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions.     

Changes in Land Cover and Subsequent Effects on Lower Fraser Basin Ecosystems from 1827 to 1990

/ European settlement began in the Lower Fraser Basin (LFB) inwestern British Columbia in 1827 and has impacted the basin ecosystem in anumber of ways, especially affecting the vegetation. Using previouslypublished data, air photos, and other historical material for the area,estimates of land cover were made for the years prior to 1827 and for 1930and 1990. The area of coniferous forest changed from 71% prior to 1827to 50% in 1930 to 54% in 1990. However, prior to 1827, only27% of the forest would have been immature (<120 years old), while40% would have been immature in 1930 and 73% of the forest wasimmature in 1990. The amount of wetland area decreased from 10% to1% of the study area while urban and agricultural area increased to26% of the study area by 1990. The changes in land cover have hadadverse effects on soil, water, and air quality; aquatic life; and plant andanimal populations. Estimates of changes in net primary production andorganic soil carbon suggest a decline over the past 170 years, although thelatter rate of decrease has slowed since 1930. As human populations in theLower Fraser Basin continue to increase, the quality of air, water, and soilwill continue to decline unless measures are taken.KEY WORDS: Human impact; Land cover; Net primary productivity; Organiccarbon in soil     

Observation and simulation of net primary productivity in Qilian Mountain, western China

We modeled net primary productivity (NPP) at high spatial resolution using an advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) image of a Qilian Mountain study area using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS). Two key driving variables of the model, leaf area index (LAI) and land cover type, were derived from ASTER and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Other spatially explicit inputs included daily meteorological data (radiation, precipitation, temperature, humidity), available soil water holding capacity (AWC), and forest biomass. NPP was estimated for coniferous forests and other land cover types in the study area. The result showed that NPP of coniferous forests in the study area was about 4.4 tCha(-1)y(-1). The correlation coefficient between the modeled NPP and ground measurements was 0.84, with a mean relative error of about 13.9%.     

Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern United States

2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on lake DO characteristics, we present herein DO information simulated, respectively, with inputs of past climate conditions (1961–1979) and with a projected 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, as well as differences of those values. Specific parameters obtained were minimum under-ice and lake bottom DO concentration in winter, duration of under-ice anoxic conditions (<0.1 mg/liter) and low DO conditions (<3 mg/liter), and percentage of anoxic and low DO lake volumes during the ice cover period. Under current climate conditions winterkill occurs typically in shallow eutrophic lakes of the northern contiguous United States. Climate warming is projected to eliminate winterkill in these lakes. This would be a positive effect of climate warming. Fish species under ice may still experience periods of stress and zero growth due to low DO (<3 mg/liter) conditions under projected climate warming.     

Climate change adaptation planning for Global South megacities: the case of Dhaka

Megacities in low- and middle-income countries face unique threats from climate change as vulnerable populations and infrastructure are concentrated in high-risk areas. This paper develops a theoretical framework to characterize adaptation readiness in Global South cities and applies the framework to Dhaka, Bangladesh, a city with acute exposure and projected impacts from flooding and extreme heat. To gather case evidence from Dhaka we draw upon interviews with national and municipal government officials and a review of planning documents and peer-reviewed literature. We find: (1) national-level plans propose a number of adaptation strategies, but urban concerns compete with priorities such as protection of coastal assets and agricultural production; (2) municipal plans focus on identifying vulnerability and impacts rather than adaptation strategies; (3) interviewees suggest that lack of coordination among local government (LG) organizations and lack of transparency act as barriers for municipal adaptation planning, with national plans driving policy where LGs have limited human and financial resources; and (4) we found limited evidence that national urban adaptation directives trickle down to municipal government. The framework developed offers a systematic and standardized means to assess and monitor the status of adaptation planning in Global South cities, and identify adaptation constraints and opportunities.     

Climate change adaptation at different levels of government: Characteristics and conditions of policy change

Climate change adaptation strategies that aim to minimize harm and maximize benefits related to climate change impacts have mushroomed at all levels of government in recent years. While many studies have explored barriers that stand in the way of their implementation, the factors determining their potential to mainstream adaptation into various sectors are less clear. In the present paper, we aim to address this gap for two international, six national, and six local adaptation strategies. Based on document analyses and 35 semi‐structured interviews, the 14 case studies also explore in how far the factors facilitating climate change adaptation are similar across levels of government or level‐specific. Although located at three different levels of government, we find that the 14 adaptation strategies analyzed here represent “one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements” that are characterized by voluntariness and a lack institutionalization. Since adaptation strategies are relatively weak coordination hubs that are unable to force adaptation onto sectoral policy agendas, they rely mainly on sectoral self‐interest in adapting to climate change, largely determined by problem pressure. We conclude that one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements are rarely adequate responses to complex challenges, such as climate change. Although climate change adaptation depends more on framework conditions such as problem pressure than on administrative or governance features, the findings presented here can help to understand under what circumstances adaptation is likely to make progress.     

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands

We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m⁻²). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.     

Land use changes and net primary production in the Georgia,USA, landscape: 1935–1982

Land use since 1935 was quantified for Georgia, USA, and for a sample of 20 counties from the major physiographic regions within the state. Statistical data on crop production, pasture productivity, and forest growth were used to estimate net primary production. Appropriate harvest indices (ratio of crop yield to total plant production) were used to correct crop yield data for different decades. Net primary production (NPP) of the Georgia landscape increased from 2.5 to 6.4 tonnes/ha from 1935 to 1982, but varied considerably among land uses and physiographic regions. NPP in the piedmont and mountains reached a plateau between 1960 and 1982, but the upper and lower coastal plains showed a continued linear increase in NPP. In all regions, NPP rose most between 1960 and 1982, coinciding with increases in inputs such as fertilizer and irrigation. Natural ecosystem NPP for Georgia is approximately 16–18 tonnes/ha, and the estimated actual NPP is thus considerably less than the potential. Spatial and temporal patterns of NPP may be a useful basis for evaluating the biological performance of a landscape.     

应对气候变化法的立法探究

为了实现碳排放达峰目标和碳中和愿景,明确应对气候变化的法律地位、工作目标和法律要求,规定部门职责及温室气体排放权的法律属性与交易机制,分解工作目标并开展评价考核,彰显国家应对气候的法治决心,亟须制定综合性基础法律——应对气候变化法。该法的制定已具备充足的研究起草基础和下位法支撑,建议尽快纳入全国人大常委会立法计划,并启动《环境保护法》等相关法律的修改。本文建议,将低碳发展和碳排放达峰、碳中和等纳入立法目的,设立总则、规划与标准、气候变化减缓、气候变化适应、管理和监督、国际合作、法律责任、附则八章,合理设立规范重点。健全统一监管与部门分工负责的体制和基金筹集、市场交易、社会共治等机制,全面构建国内应对气候变化管理制度体系,部署国际协商与合作措施,设置地方政府工作目标责任,对违法行为规定罚则。     

The Water Fluxes of the Yellow River to the Sea in the Past 50 Years, in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and “natural” river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0°C, from 16.5°C to 17.5°C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%.