Risk analysis for road and rail transport of hazardous materials: a simplified approach

A simplified approach to transportation risk analysis for road and rail transport of dangerous goods is proposed, which is based on the use of a product databank, containing the impact areas for a number of pre-selected accidental scenarios, and on the selection of a few typical average values of the involved parameters, relevant to the type of transport activity and to the route. Such an approach enables also a non-specialist to very rapidly perform a transportation risk analysis, obtaining both individual and societal risk measures for the study case(s): the results may be used to support a decision making process, and/or as a basis for a more in deep analysis.     

Risk analysis for road and rail transport of hazardous materials: a GIS approach

An approach to transportation risk analysis for road and rail transport of dangerous goods is proposed, which is based on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) to manage territorial information, coupled with a product data bank in a risk evaluation tool. Such an approach enables to accurately take into account the local data affecting risk analysis, such as population, accident rate, and weather conditions along all the route, by means of a system which can be easily updated. The resulting risk evaluation tool assists in the step of route identification and allows to rapidly perform an accurate transportation risk analysis, for a single transportation event as well as for multiple substances, trips and itineraries.     

Real-time response system for the prediction of the atmospheric transport of hazardous materials

Human urge of exploiting earth resources has resulted into unprecedented industrial development in the last century resulting into production of large quantities of hazardous chemicals. Chemical, petrochemical, nuclear, biomedical and pharmaceutical industrial accidents release large quantities of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. The accidental discharge during production or storage or transportation have subjected the population to be exposed to exceptionally high concentration levels of hazardous chemicals, taking them by surprise, unprepared with fatal consequences. An emergency planning organization has to be trained to combat this situation in the shortest possible time to minimize the number of causalities. The present paper focuses on computation of dispersion model, using emission source, accident location and online metrological data near to the sources, to provide necessary and accurate results swiftly. The predicted ground level concentrations with the hazardous nature of the chemical, speed and direction of plume, the emergency team will be supplied with all the information in graphical easy to grasp form, superimposed over a GIS map or the latest satellite image of the area.

The emergency team has to be trained for all past scenarios and their preparedness, response and actions must be practiced regularly to be able to abate chemical releases accidentally or intentionally.

Accidental releases of chlorine and ammonia gases in residential and industrial areas are simulated. The predicted ground level concentrations in the effected areas are shown after different time intervals. For low vapor pressure chemical, the dispersion time is large and concentration levels are low but persist for prolonged time while for volatile chemical, the concentrations are high in short time and recovering to safe environment is quick.     

Risk management of road and rail transport of hazardous materials in Sicily

A Transportation Risk Analysis (TRA) tool has been used to accurately assess the risk associated to a variety of road and rail transportation cases representative of hazardous materials transport by land in Sicily. Due to the high risk level, some risk mitigation options have been investigated: the possibility of changing route and/or transport modalities have been examined for each transportation activity, all the combinations of road, rail and intermodal (road+rail) transport have been calculated and that minimising the risk has been identified with the aid of the TRA tool.     

Risk management of terrorist attacks in the transport of hazardous materials using dynamic geoevents

This paper focuses attention on emergency management associated with a terrorist attack in the transport of hazardous materials in urban areas. The case study is in an urban area, a potential target for terrorist attacks due to its high vulnerability. Since it is not possible to predict where and when an attack will occur, the risk associated with terrorism is complex. It is only possible to identify the critical points for potential actions where counter measure must be applied. In the case of incidents which evolve relatively slowly, mitigation actions can be applied. The use of dynamic geoevents permits the immediate location of the event on a georeferenced map and the possibility of having a dynamic evolution of the scenario and of the number of people involved. The dynamic scenario has been created using the output of a consequence simulation code and a GIS software. Some assumptions were necessary but, since the aim of the paper is to define the procedure for the construction of the dynamic geoevent, these can be considered acceptable. The method will be further implemented in future.     

危险品道路运输选线问题分析

从运输网、运输危险源、影响区域3方面提出了危险品道路运输风险分析的框架.将道路固有特征、气象条件、交通状况和人口密度分布等风险减缓或扩大因素划分为8类,重点讨论了主要路线的自变量和因变量因素.采用双层选线管理模式,深入分析了最小化运输事故概率和暴露人口风险模型.应用权数调整节点标号算法和边线标号算法解决危险品道路运输选线问题.对影响区暴露人口的选取做了深入探讨,考虑了邻接交迭路段暴露人数的误差,对准确计算危险品运输风险有重要价值.     

基于GIS的城区危险品运输可视化管控系统研究

通过对城区危险品运输管理现状的分析,针对城区危险品道路运输监管过程中存在的沟通信息不畅、权责不明等实际情况,融合城区公共安全联动机制的系统设计理念,基于GIS技术开发了由路径分析选择、应急救援管理、危险货物管理、危险源管理、车辆管理、信息显示及查询、地理信息和系统总控等模块构成的城区道路危险品运输可视化管控系统。首先,基于需求分析及开发目的,给出了系统总体结构框架,阐述了各模块的实施过程及效果;然后,建立了由空间数据与属性数据构成的GIS数据库,并将运输风险最小、费用最低作为路径优化的选线标准;最后,基于角改进的Dijsktra算法,实现系统路径的分析与选择。     

Risk assessment of coupling links in hazardous chemicals maritime transportation system

The hazardous chemicals maritime transportation system (HCMTS) belongs to a typical complex tech-social system, which is comprised of multiple functions with interactions. To quantitatively assess the risks triggered by failure coupling links (CLs) between upstream and downstream functions, a hybrid method integrating the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), fuzzy set theory, and risk matrix is proposed in the present study. A total of 10 essential functions and 16 CLs involved in HCMTS were identified by FRAM. The fuzzy set theory was adopted to aggregate the weights of risk consequence and likelihood for CLs. A risk matrix with a continuous scale was utilized to assess and rank the CLs’ risks. The results have been demonstrated by the comparisons, indicated that the risk indexes (RIs) of the CLs between the functions < Consignment of HCs> and <Undertaking the transportation>, <Consignment of HCs> and <Declaration of HCs>, <Loading HCs in port> and <Ship navigation at sea > are higher in the whole chain of HCMTS.     

危险品运输网络优化设计研究综述

为分析当今反恐新形势下的危险品运输网络优化设计问题的研究现状,系统总结国内外关于一般场景和恐怖袭击威胁2种情况下危险品运输网络优化设计研究的主要模型和方法,梳理两者现有的研究内容,并讨论其共性及恐怖袭击威胁情景下的研究的新特点。结果发现:目前关于解决危险品运输网络优化设计问题模型的鲁棒性研究较为缺乏,尤其是模型在更为复杂和不确定性更强的恐怖袭击情景中适用性不强;危险品运输的鲁棒优化模型即使在突发事件条件下,也可以使决策者能够作出相对满意的决策;鲁棒性危险品运输网络能够规避风险扰动,可用来防止在恐怖袭击中因危险品车辆爆炸等造成更大的危害。     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

Disaster impact assessment of the underground hazardous materials pipeline

In the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other countries with advanced pipeline management, some organizations are responsible for pipeline safety protection management for underground hazardous materials. The security and maintenance of a hazardous material pipeline are serious considerations for urban safety, because the materials transported by underground pipelines contain hazardous goods, such as the flammable or explosive particles of solids, liquids, and gases. Damage to a pipeline by external forces often leads to secondary disasters, such as the leakage of hazardous materials, fires, explosions, and environmental pollution. Such events seriously affect the safety of individuals and their property.Accordingly, this study used seismic scenario analysis with a spatial grid to evaluate earthquake damage to an underground pipeline in an urban area. Damage to underground pipelines was classified, pipeline disaster management procedures were discussed, and improvement measures were proposed, such as establishing a geographic information platform and conducting disaster impact assessments for hazardous material pipelines. Underground hazardous material pipelines were assessed in scenarios including earthquakes. Such assessments are intended to provide disaster reduction plans and disaster prevention drills to improve pipeline safety as well as the planning for pipeline materials to aid seismic resistance.     

Multi-objective transportation route optimization for hazardous materials based on GIS

Safety and security are of paramount importance, it is important to optimize and improve the routes of trucks that carry hazardous materials. In this study, we not only ensure the risk in the network, but also consider the transportation cost and the factors such as buildings and emergency facilities around the routes. The Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to quantify the factors on each section in the network. We present an epsilon constrained multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming optimization model to find the robust and stable transportation optimization solutions. At the end, we complete a case analysis of the proposed methodology to determine the motorway segments in Jiangsu province, China and test the above algorithm on the network, which has 144 nodes and 388 sections. The results we get show that the factors of buildings play a very important role in the model, and the multi-objective mixed-integer linear optimization model is reasonable and performs good quality.     

International co-operation in hazardous materials accident prevention

Accident prevention relies on a proper understanding of relevant hazards so that appropriate controls can be put in place to safeguard those who are potentially endangered. Setting deaths from war, natural events and domestic accidents to one side, industrial chemicals in their manufacture, transport, storage and use arguably contribute significantly to society's accident toll. National and international regimes have been developed over the years to characterise the properties of these hazardous materials so that risks to society and workforces handling such `dangerous goods' are reduced. Sometimes it has taken a disaster to show that a hazard formerly unrecognised did in fact exist; sometimes the closer scrutiny of test methods has shown that a dangerous property may have gone unrecognised; sometimes misuse of materials precipitated controls. However, in all the deliberations surrounding hazardous materials characterisation, accident investigation and prevention, and development of controls, suitable exchange of information and viewpoints between experts is necessary to promote development and adoption of international conventions. These international protocols are normally agreed by policy makers who have technical advisers to support their negotiations. These technical advisers need to meet in an appropriate forum to develop an understanding of all the relevant factors and to test ideas; often such group discussions pave the way to agreements being reached at formal policy negotiations, to solutions being provided for certain disasters, to better methods of testing. The International Group of Experts on the Explosion Risks of Unstable Substances (OECD-IGUS) created by the OECD is one such group. It first met in 1962.Set up initially to harmonise test methods used by countries to identify and quantify the explosive properties of unstable materials, it has continued over the years to offer scientists who are advisers to their governments (and others) a forum to exchange data and information primarily in support of the development of classifications regimes to protect society from the hazards of unstable substances and remove barriers to international trade but also in understanding and quantifying the resulting effects—such as explosion—from accidents involving these and other `dangerous goods'. This paper describes some of the accidents which show the need for international controls for `dangerous goods' and some of the contributions made by OECD-IGUS (often referred to as `IGUS') to their developments.     

危险品道路运输风险分级指数法研究

危险品道路运输过程风险影响因素多,随机性和不确定性大,定量风险评价比较复杂,至今没有统一的风险评估模型.为了有效预防危险品运输事故和进行快速风险评估,基于运输危险品本身特性和相关的风险影响因素探讨了运输危险品现实风险分级指数法.该方法由危险品风险分级指数、路线影响因素和安全措施补偿因子3部分构成.危险品风险分级指数由危险品加权平均风险等级和运输危险品量、泄漏点与居民区距离以及危险品扩散因子等级确定.危险品加权平均风险等级涉及其健康危害性、可燃性、化学反应活性以及特殊危险性(氧化性和与水反应性)等级的确定.路线影响因素包含运输道路特征、气象条件、交通状况和影响人员分布4类.安全措施补偿因子为车辆、设备、容器、包装因子,人员素质因子和安全管理因子3类.该方法可对运输危险品的潜在风险进行快速分级,有利于采取有效的安全预防和控制措施,降低运输事故概率和沿线影响人员风险.     

危险化学品泄漏扩散研究探讨

对危险化学品泄漏扩散的研究是事故应急救援的基础。针对近年来日益增多的危险化学品泄漏事故,本文从数学模型和计算机仿真模拟两方面系统评述了国内外危险化学品泄漏扩散方面的研究,其中数学模型研究主要分为“反求源强”模型和扩散模型两类,计算机仿真模拟主要分为静态离线仿真模拟和实时动态仿真模拟两类。在此基础上,提出了进一步研究的一般框架和研究的方向。     

Generic event trees and probabilities for the release of different types of hazardous materials

To simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events leading to loss of containment are normally described using generic hypotheses. For example, the following hypothesis is applied to the loss of containment from a storage tank: instantaneous release of the complete inventory, continuous release of the complete inventory in 10 min, and continuous release from a hole with a diameter of 10 mm. Once the initiating events have been specified, the corresponding event trees must be drawn to establish the sequences from each initiating event to the diverse final outcomes or accident scenarios, which will depend on the properties of the released material or on other specific factors. In this paper we propose, in a systematic way, a set of short generic event trees for the main loss of containment scenarios involving different types of hazardous materials. Even though most of them have been taken from the literature (BEVI Reference Manual), we have modified some of them, added the corresponding intermediate probabilities (immediate ignition, delayed ignition, flame front acceleration, etc.) obtained from a literature review and expert judgment, and associated the use of each event tree to the hazardous properties of the material (flammability, volatility and toxicity) and to its category according to EC labeling directives.     

An adaptive management system for hazardous technology organizations

This paper introduces a management system suitable for hazardous technology organizations which has been developed based on the assumptions that in these organizations safety is a critical strategic factor, the existence of an enhanced safety culture is a crucial condition for safety and that safety culture enhancement implies in organizational changes. The management system was theoretically developed and then implemented at a Brazilian nuclear research and development installation, as a case study, in order to validate the theoretical propositions assumed in the system development. The developed management system comprises a day-to-day based organizational framework which treats safety as one of the organization strategic perspectives and provides a continuous adaptation of the complex causal inter-relationships which occur between the implementation of new management practices – designed and implemented according to the requirements of the criteria of excellence of the Brazilian quality award management assessment model – and the organization safety culture. The results achieved in the case study permitted to demonstrate the validness of all the system theoretical propositions and to conclude that the continuous and systematic operation of the management system makes an effective safety culture enhancement possible and simultaneously facilitates that the new management practices be effectively implemented, thus making continuous organizational improvement possible.     

Risk analysis of LPG transport by road and rail

Historical data concerning more than 130 LPG rail and road transport accidents were critically examined, identifying the scenarios, following their evolution into the final accidental events, and determining their theoretical probabilities of occurrence. In principle, rail accidents are rather hazardous, the most probable scenario being a major release followed by an UVCE. However, in order to discriminate among road and rail transport, the relevant number of trips and accident rates should be taken into account. In fact, the application, concerning the transport of 5700 ton/year of LPG in Italy along one rail and two different road itineraries, showed that the risk for rail transport was more than one order of magnitude lower than that for those on the roads. The population density along the route and the accident rate, rather than the length of the route, appear the most important factors for discriminating between different itineraries.     

罐体车辆道路运输危险品事故特征分析

为系统掌握罐车道路运输危险品事故特征,调查整理了615起危险品罐车道路运输事故.采用统计与对比分析方法,获得危险品罐车道路运输事故发生原因及比例、事故发生的时间及形态分布,并确定了不同事故罐体以及不同道路等级事故的泄漏概率.分析表明,在发生的事故中,人的因素占67%,翻车事故为最主要事故类型,两车追尾事故和低等级公路事故泄漏概率最高,分别为84.52%和82.7%.     

基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型

为提高危化品爆炸事故电力应急预警的准确性,建立基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型.基于危化品爆炸事故电力应急典型情景分析,建立综合考虑突发事件、承灾载体和应急管理等风险因素的贝叶斯网络结构.应用概率刻画风险因素信息的不确定性及其相互影响,定量分析事件后果.结合一般条件和典型情景等的应用实例,分析评价方法...