高层建筑火灾初期人员疏散策略的优化分析

通过分析高层建筑火灾条件下的人员安全疏散问题,构建了高层建筑火灾初期的垂直疏散模型,并提出2种疏散策略.策略Ⅰ:电梯停靠层以下全部用楼梯疏散,停靠层及以上楼层用电梯疏散;策略Ⅱ:各楼层人员按不同比例通过电梯进行疏散.然后通过调用随机函数,在一个动态运行模式下求解模型,分析停靠层、楼层人数及电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响,得到2种策略条件下的近似最优解.分析楼梯、电梯的疏散规律,得出楼层人数、电梯停靠层和电梯疏散人数比例对疏散效果的影响并非单一的线性关系:楼层人数较少时,随楼层的增加,电梯疏散更具优势;楼层人数过多时,电梯、楼梯的疏散效果都不明显,此时需要合理确定通过楼梯、电梯疏散的人数比例才能提高疏散效果.比较2种策略发现,策略Ⅱ疏散时间更短,而策略Ⅰ在现实中的运行能力和可操作性更强.     

高层公寓式住宅建筑电梯协同楼梯疏散策略研究

为探索高层建筑利用电梯协同楼梯疏散以提高疏散效率的可行性,基于现有的电梯协同楼梯疏散研究成果,运用Pathfinder构建某高层住宅建筑实例模型,研究楼层总数及电梯数量对电梯最佳停靠层的影响,提出2个电梯协同楼梯的疏散策略,并对策略进行优化分析。结果表明:电梯最佳停靠层随楼层总数的增加,呈现“平台阶变”的特征和线性增加的趋势,但随楼层总数的增加,最佳疏散层在“平台阶变”后会更加远离顶层;策略1（顶层优先策略）下因存在最佳分离楼层使得该策略下的总疏散时间最短,策略2（分段顶层优先策略）可有效提高电梯利用率,通过对策略2下的人员使用电梯比例进行控制,可进一步提高疏散效率,该优化策略可将总疏散时间从仅楼梯无电梯疏散的804 s缩短到580 s,使疏散效率提升27.9%。     

高层建筑楼梯与电梯耦合的安全疏散策略研究

人员疏散是高层建筑火灾应急管理中重要问题之一。仅依靠楼梯无法在火灾初期安全快速地大批量疏散人群，必须引入其他疏散途径，才能达到安全疏散的要求，而引入电梯，实现楼梯电梯耦合疏散，成为未来高层建筑火灾垂直疏散的新趋势之一。运用BuildingEXODUS从不同建筑高度、不同人群密度、不同人员类型3个方面，运用楼梯模式、A型Shuttle Floor模式、B型Shuttle Floor模式、Sky Lobby模式4种模式进行模拟，提出每种情况的最优疏散策略。研究结果表明:任何层数的高层建筑都存在1个或数个最佳分离楼层使楼梯电梯耦合疏散的效率最高；在运用楼梯以及耦合方案2时，疏散时间与建筑高度呈线性关系，且随着楼层的增高耦合方案2所用疏散时间越来越接近楼梯疏散时间的二分之一；不同人群密度与最佳分离楼层无关；当人员平均疏散能力较高时，最佳分离楼层会上移反之则会下降。     

一种高层建筑楼、电梯疏散模型的模拟研究

通过分析目前楼、电梯疏散的研究成果,提出了新的楼、电梯疏散模型,给出了两种具有可行性的电梯运行方案:(1)电梯停靠某一层完全疏散此层及以上所有人员,此层以下人员使用楼梯疏散;(2)7层以上的各层按一定比例选择使用电梯疏散,剩余人员选用楼梯疏散.进一步阐述了楼、电梯疏散时间的计算公式.通过对新提出的楼、电梯疏散模型的模拟计算可知:两种运行方案均可有效地降低总的疏散时间,相比之下第二种运行方案疏散效果更佳,但考虑到实际情况第一种方案可操作性更强.最后讨论了电梯速度对疏散的影响,得出疏散时最好选用运行速度较高的电梯,可提高疏散效率.     

基于微观模拟的多层地铁站疏散效率研究

为客观评估复杂多层建筑物的人员疏散效率,以一个3层地铁站为例,用City Flow流微观人员疏散模型模拟不同疏散场景,量化分析人员分布情况、电梯操作方式、人员寻路行为3方面的场景设置变数对疏散结果的影响,提出楼层疏散效率概念,探讨多楼层建筑结构人员疏散过程中如何摆脱疏散场景设置的变数,客观评价建筑结构自身的疏散效率。结果表明:增加手扶电梯E3使疏散时间减少9.8%,让大多数人选择楼梯S2可减少16.9%的疏散时间;距离安全出口越远的区域受疏散场景调整的影响越大,整体疏散效率的提高取决于所有疏散通道之间的相互平衡和配合;楼层疏散效率能反映各楼层自身属性,是客观有效的评价指标。     

多层建筑楼梯疏散宽度组合仿真研究

为探究事故发生时楼梯宽度对多层建筑疏散效率的影响,结合多层建筑楼梯疏散特点,建立多层建筑楼梯疏散模型。基于多层建筑疏散过程,以社会力模型为基础,分析多层建筑行人疏散方式,构建楼梯疏散汇流模型;计算各楼层行人汇流时间以及楼梯汇流疏散效率;以某多层教学楼为仿真案例,构建不同楼梯宽度组合疏散场景,仿真多层建筑物疏散过程,获取各楼层汇流时间及楼梯疏散效率。结果表明:楼层平台汇流持续时间与楼层所在位置正相关,楼层所在位置越高,汇流持续时间越长;低楼层楼梯宽度增加有利于优化中间楼层行人汇流作用,提高多层建筑疏散效率,而高楼层楼梯宽度增加则会加剧中间楼层行人汇流对疏散的不利影响,降低多层建筑疏散效率。     

基于Pathfinder的高校教学楼出口人员疏散仿真研究

针对高校教学楼出口人员疏散问题,基于现场观测数据,运用Pathfinder2015软 件平台设置建筑物和人员运动参数,对某高校教学楼进行人员疏散模拟仿真。通过设计 调整教室排课疏散场景,仿真不同场景下各楼梯出口的疏散时间、累计疏散人数和平均 人流量变化情况,利用Origin9.1数据图形可视化对比分析教室排课调整使用前后教学 楼的人员疏散情况。结果表明:充分利用低楼层教室排课,适当将人数较多班级分散安 排至靠近楼梯出口教室,疏散时间从609.3 s缩短至591.6 s;5楼可疏散人数由410人减 至187人,且部分楼层楼梯出口人群分布均匀;4、5楼楼梯出口平均人流量降低且小于1 人/s。因此高校应该对各班级合理安排课程,适当控制学生人数,调整教学楼的人群分 布,提高低楼层教室使用率,且充分利用各楼梯出口,缩短较高楼层人员疏散时间,提 高疏散效率。     

基于Pathfinder的某综合楼疏散模拟研究

为了提高办公楼等人员聚集场所的人员快速疏散能力,防止发生拥堵踩踏等安全问题。利用Pathfinder软件对某综合办公楼进行疏散模拟研究,根据楼内人员分布情况,研究不同楼层不同比例楼梯和电梯混合疏散的疏散时间,分析疏散过程中容易产生拥堵、踩踏等事故的情况。研究结果显示,采用楼梯和电梯混合疏散模式可以缩短疏散时间。某综合楼疏散容易产生拥堵的区域为一楼电梯厅与楼梯交汇处;主出入口疏散效率不高,在疏散过程中应设置疏散引导员,为综合办公楼日常管理和疏散安全管理提供借鉴。     

商业综合体中楼梯、自动扶梯和电梯多通道耦合疏散策略研究*

为选择最优疏散模式,提高商业综合体应急疏散效率,运用Pathfinder仿真软件,求解最优自动扶梯与楼梯双通道耦合模式,并探讨自动扶梯、楼梯与电梯多通道耦合疏散模式实效性。结果表明:自动扶梯与楼梯双通道耦合疏散模式中,自动扶梯双下行与楼梯耦合疏散模式疏散效果最好,疏散时间最短,总疏散时间465.95 s,比单一楼梯疏散模式缩短16.24%;自动扶梯、疏散楼梯与电梯多通道3重耦合疏散模式,比自动扶梯与楼梯双通道耦合疏散模式中最优组合方式疏散时间减少10.45 s,减少了2.24%;通过电梯疏散人数86人,占总疏散人数1.30%,表明电梯疏散效果提升不明显。研究结果可为紧急情况下自动扶梯反转时间确定以及密集场所应急预案编制提供理论参考。     

深埋地下空间电梯楼梯协同疏散的仿真实验研究

为研究灾害中如何有效疏散人员的问题,依托重庆沙坪坝综合交通枢纽工程,通过pathfinder软件对沙坪坝综合交通枢纽地下空间人员疏散进行仿真模拟,研究电梯楼梯协同疏散在人员密集地下空间建筑疏散的可行性。结果表明:电梯楼梯协同疏散相对于传统楼梯疏散具有更大的优势,疏散时间相比传统疏散方式减少了约一半。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

一起有机过氧化物爆炸事故的调查和分析

阐述一起重大爆炸伤亡事故的现场调查和原因分析，介绍如何通过人证物证材料，用鱼刺图法找出可能引起事故的诸原因，逐项加以分析，将与人证或物证材料相矛盾的原因子以排除，最后剩下无法排除亦即能与人证物证相符的那个原因，就是事故的真正原因。笔者是这起事故调查专家组组长，取证和数据可靠。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.