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1.
Previous research has indicated that offenses are better predictors of subsequent crashes than crashes themselves. We examined this hypothesis for 13,800 young beginning drivers in Michigan for up to nine years during the initial years of driving. Our analyses indicated that previous-year offenses are better predictors of both subsequent-year offenses and crashes than either previous-year crashes or at-fault crashes. This finding also held for the apparently higher-risk subset of subsequent-year serious offenses and at-fault crashes. Although there were no gender differences in the predictive power of crashes, it was found that the predictive power of previous offenses to subsequent serious offenses was significantly stronger for women than for men. The predictive power of incidents appeared to increase somewhat with increasing driving experience, suggesting that early incidents may be more attributable to inexperience, a characteristic of all beginning drivers, while later incidents may be more attributable to individual differences. 相似文献
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警用头盔是武警部队使用最为频繁的单兵防护用具,本文基于人机工程学的理论,用人机工程学的观点对武警部队现装备的警用头盔进行分析和探讨,提出解决途径的设想,展望警用头盔的发展前景。 相似文献
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通过对一起塔式起重机臂架断裂事故的分析,从设计、制造、使用及维修管理等不同角度指出了事故的原因并提出了建议及对策。 相似文献
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从内在动力和外在诱因两个方面分析了管制员违章行为产生的根本原因,着重归纳了管制员有意违章的临界心理状态,揭示了违章行为的规律,并提出具体的防范控制措施. 相似文献
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Objective: Several studies have evaluated the correlation between U.S. or Euro New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings and injury risk to front seat occupants, in particular driver injuries. Conversely, little is known about whether NCAP 5-star ratings predict real-world risk of injury to restrained rear seat occupants. The NHTSA has identified rear seat occupant protection as a specific area under consideration for improvements to its NCAP. In order to inform NHTSA's efforts, we examined how NCAP's current 5-star rating system predicts risk of moderate or greater injury among restrained rear seat occupants in real-world crashes. Methods: We identified crash-involved vehicles, model year 2004–2013, in NASS-CDS (2003–2012) with known make and model and nonmissing occupant information. We manually matched these vehicles to their NCAP star ratings using data on make, model, model year, body type, and other identifying information. The resultant linked NASS-CDS and NCAP database was analyzed to examine associations between vehicle ratings and rear seat occupant injury risk; risk to front seat occupants was also estimated for comparison. Data were limited to restrained occupants and occupant injuries were defined as any injury with a maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or greater. Results: We linked 95% of vehicles in NASS-CDS to a specific vehicle in NCAP. The 18,218 vehicles represented an estimated 6 million vehicles with over 9 million occupants. Rear seat passengers accounted for 12.4% of restrained occupants. The risk of injury in all crashes for restrained rear seat occupants was lower in vehicles with a 5-star driver rating in frontal impact tests (1.4%) than with 4 or fewer stars (2.6%, P =.015); results were similar for the frontal impact passenger rating (1.3% vs. 2.4%, P =.024). Conversely, side impact driver and passenger crash tests were not associated with rear seat occupant injury risk (driver test: 1.7% for 5-star vs. 1.8% for 1–4 stars; passenger test: 1.6% for 5 stars vs 1.8% for 1–4 stars). Conclusions: Current frontal impact test procedures provide some degree of discrimination in real-world rear seat injury risk among vehicles with 5 compared to fewer than 5 stars. However, there is no evidence that vehicles with a 5-star side impact passenger rating, which is the only crash test procedure to include an anthropomorphic test dummy (ATD) in the rear, demonstrate lower risks of injury in the rear than vehicles with fewer than 5 stars. These results support prioritizing modifications to the NCAP program that specifically evaluate rear seat injury risk to restrained occupants of all ages. 相似文献
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IntroductionA common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified. ObjectivesThis study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction? MethodWe obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors. ResultsThe construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway. 相似文献
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分析了违章的内涵、违章与事故间的关系以及违章产生的原因,并有针对性地提出了违章的控制对策。 相似文献
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IntroductionCrossover and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways can lead to severe injury outcomes. This study estimated severity models of these two crash types. Vehicle, driver, roadway, and median cross-section design data were factors considered in the models. A unique aspect of the data used to estimate the models were the availability of median cross-slope data, which are not commonly included in roadway inventory data files. MethodsA binary logit model of cross-median crash severity and a multinomial logit model of rollover crash severity were estimated using five years of data from rural divided highways in Pennsylvania. ResultsThe highest probability of a fatal or major injury in cross-median and rollover crashes was found to occur in cases when a driver was not wearing a seatbelt. While flatter cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with more severe cross-median crash outcomes, steeper cross-slopes and narrower medians significantly increased rollover crash severity outcomes. The presence of horizontal curves was associated with increased probabilities of high-severity outcomes in a median rollover crash. Impact on IndustryModeling results in this study confirmed that cross-median and median rollover crash severity outcomes are associated with median cross-section design characteristics. Based on the estimated models, it appears that flatter and narrower medians lead to more severe injury outcomes in cross-median crashes. Steeper median cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with higher probabilities of more severe outcomes in median rollover crashes. The results presented in this study suggest that there is a trade-off between median cross-section design and cross-median and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways. While the severity models can be included in a framework to develop design guidance in relation to this trade-off, models of crash frequency should also be considered. 相似文献
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ProblemPrevious research indicated that conversions of intersections into roundabouts appear to increase the number of injury crashes with bicyclists. However, it was assumed that the effectiveness of roundabouts could vary according to some differences in design types of cycle, facilities and other geometrical factors. MethodRegression analyses on effectiveness-indices resulting from a before-and-after study of injury crashes with bicyclists at 90 roundabouts in Flanders, Belgium. ResultsRegarding all injury crashes with bicyclists, roundabouts with cycle lanes appear to perform significantly worse compared to three other design types (mixed traffic, separate cycle paths, and grade-separated cycle paths). Nevertheless, an increase of the severest crashes was noticed, regardless of the design type of the cycle facilities. Roundabouts that are replacing signal-controlled intersections seem to have had a worse evolution compared to roundabouts on other types of intersections. Impact on industryThe results might affect design guidelines for roundabouts, particularly for the accommodation of bicyclists. 相似文献
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INTRODUCTION: There have been few studies of the risk factors for fatal injury in air crashes of rotary-wing aircraft, and none of risk factors for all serious injury (fatal and non-fatal) in these aircraft. The aim of the study was to identify the potentially modifiable risk factors for injury in civil rotary-wing aircraft crashes in New Zealand. METHOD: We analyzed records from all reported civil rotary-wing aircraft crashes in New Zealand between 1988 and 1994. Air crash data from the official databases were merged with nationwide injury records and information obtained from Coroner's files. Crashes where the pilot-in-command was fatally injured were compared with crashes where the pilot-in-command was not fatally injured on 50 variables, covering pilot, aircraft, environmental, and operational characteristics. A second analysis compared crashes where the pilot-in-command was seriously injured (either fatally or non-fatally) with crashes where the pilot-in-command was not hospitalized with an injury. A series of multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate the odds associated with each of the factors identified by the univariate analyses. RESULTS: The most significant risk factors for all serious injury were: (a) not obtaining a weather briefing, (b) off-airport location of the crash site, (c) flights carried out for air transport purposes, and (d) non-solo flights. Other risk factors, significant for fatal injury only, included post-crash fire and the nature of the crash terrain. Factors within the control of the pilot, environmental, and flight characteristics are the key determinants of the injury outcome of civil rotary-wing aircraft crashes. 相似文献
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ProblemAlcohol-related youth traffic fatalities continue as a major public-health concern. While state and federal laws can be useful in tackling this problem, the efficacy of many laws has not been empirically demonstrated. We examined the impact of state laws prohibiting alcohol advertising to target minors. Method: Using statistics obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), youth alcohol-related, single-vehicle, driver traffic fatalities were compared by state as a function of whether the state has a law prohibiting alcohol advertising that targets minors. Results: Overall, states possessing this law experienced 32.9% fewer of the above specified traffic fatalities. Discussion and Impact on Industry: The results suggest that not only are youth drinking rates affected by alcohol advertisements targeting youth, but also drink-driving behaviors. Indeed, we estimate that if this type of legislation were adopted in the 26 states that do not prohibit targeting of minors with alcohol advertising, then 400 youth lives could be saved annually. 相似文献
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OBJECTIVE: The initial months of licensure are especially hazardous for teenagers. Factors leading to crashes of novice 16-year-old drivers were identified. METHOD: Sixteen year-olds in Connecticut who were involved in nonfatal crashes during the first 8 months of licensure were interviewed, and police crash reports were examined. Crash types and contributing factors were identified. RESULTS: Three-fourths of the crash-involved teenagers were at fault. Their crashes resulted primarily when they ran off the road, rear ended another vehicle, or collided with another vehicle that had the right-of-way. Three factors contributed about equally to their crashes: failing to detect another vehicle or traffic control, speeding, and losing control of the vehicle or sliding. Slippery roads also were an important factor. Most failures to detect another vehicle or traffic control involved not looking thoroughly, distraction, or inattention. DISCUSSION: Based on the findings, potential countermeasures for reducing crashes of novice teenage drivers include adequate practice driving, in-vehicle monitoring devices, and electronic stability control. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: More than half of the nonfatal, at-fault crashes of newly licensed 16-year-old drivers involved more than one contributing factor including speed, loss of control, and slippery roads. Efforts to reduce teenage crashes should focus on these factors. 相似文献
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Objective: Red light cameras (RLCs) have generated heated discussions over issues of safety effectiveness, revenue generation, and procedural due process. This study focuses on the safety evaluation of RLCs in Missouri, including the economic valuation of safety benefits. The publication of the national Highway Safety Manual (HSM; American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) in 2010 produced statistical safety models for intersections and spurred the calibration of these models to local conditions. Methods: This study adds to existing knowledge by applying the latest statistical methodology presented in the HSM and more current data. Driver behavior constantly changes due in part to driving conditions and the use of technology. The safety and economic benefit evaluation was performed using the empirical Bayes method, which accounts for regression to the mean bias. For the economic benefit evaluation, the KABCO crash severity scale and crash cost estimates were used. A total of 24 4-leg urban intersections were randomly selected from a master list of RLCs in Missouri from 2006 to 2011. Additionally, 35 comparable nontreated intersections were selected for the analysis. Results and Conclusions: The implementation of RLCs reduced overall angle crashes by 11.6%, whereas rear-end crashes increased by 16.5%. The net economic crash cost benefit of the implementation of RLCs was $35,269 per site per year in 2001 dollars (approximately $47,000 in 2015 dollars). Thus, RLCs produced a sizable net positive safety benefit that is consistent with previous statistical studies. 相似文献
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ProblemChildren on family agricultural operations have high risk of injury. The association between children's behavioral traits and their risk of injury is not well understood. MethodData from the Regional Rural Injury Study-II were used to assess behavioral risk factors for injury to children ages six to < 20 years. A total of 379 injury events (cases) and 1,562 randomly selected controls were identified. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), calculated using logistic regression, were used to estimate injury risk in reference to behavioral traits. ResultsInjury risks were greater for children with high levels of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.9, CI = 1.0-3.7) and aggression (OR = 1.6, CI = 0.9-2.7), and low levels of careful/cautious behavior (OR = 1.8, CI = 1.1-2.9). Children with low levels of self-regulation had reduced risks (OR = 0.4, CI = 0.2-0.8). DiscussionResults suggest that children's behaviors affect their risk of agricultural injury. Additional research could elucidate mechanisms and inform interventions. Impact on industryThe development of multifaceted, sustainable approaches for prevention is necessary for this unique population. These findings suggest a need for interventions that incorporate specific behavior-related risk factors in the context of family farms and ranches. 相似文献
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AbstractObjective: This study aimed to reconstruct 11 motor vehicle crashes (6 with thoracolumbar fractures and 5 without thoracolumbar fractures) and analyze the fracture mechanism, fracture predictors, and associated parameters affecting thoracolumbar spine response. Methods: Eleven frontal crashes were reconstructed with a finite element simplified vehicle model (SVM). The SVM was tuned to each case vehicle and the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) Ver. 4.01 was scaled and positioned in a baseline configuration to mimic the documented precrash driver posture. The event data recorder crash pulse was applied as a boundary condition. For the 6 thoracolumbar fracture cases, 120 simulations to quantify uncertainty and response variation were performed using a Latin hypercube design of experiments (DOE) to vary seat track position, seatback angle, steering column angle, steering column position, and D-ring height. Vertebral loads and bending moments were analyzed, and lumbar spine indices (unadjusted and age-adjusted) were developed to quantify the combined loading effect. Maximum principal strain and stress data were collected in the vertebral cortical and trabecular bone. DOE data were fit to regression models to examine occupant positioning and thoracolumbar response correlations. Results: Of the 11 cases, both the vertebral compression force and bending moment progressively increased from superior to inferior vertebrae. Two thoracic spine fracture cases had higher average compression force and bending moment across all thoracic vertebral levels, compared to 9 cases without thoracic spine fractures (force: 1,200.6 vs. 640.8 N; moment: 13.7 vs. 9.2?Nm). Though there was no apparent difference in bending moment at the L1–L2 vertebrae, lumbar fracture cases exhibited higher vertebral bending moments in L3–L4 (fracture/nonfracture: 45.7 vs. 33.8?Nm). The unadjusted lumbar spine index correctly predicted thoracolumbar fracture occurrence for 9 of the 11 cases (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?0.6). The age-adjusted lumbar spine index correctly predicted thoracolumbar fracture occurrence for 10 of the 11 cases (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?0.8). The age-adjusted principal stress in the trabecular bone was an excellent indicator of fracture occurrence (sensitivity?=?1.0; specificity?=?1.0). A rearward seat track position and reclined seatback increased the thoracic spine bending moment by 111–329%. A more reclined seatback increased the lumbar force and bending moment by 16–165% and 67–172%, respectively. Conclusions: This study provided a computational framework for assessing thoracolumbar fractures and also quantified the effect of precrash driver posture on thoracolumbar response. Results aid in the evaluation of motor vehicle crash–induced vertebral fractures and the understanding of factors contributing to fracture risk. 相似文献
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PROBLEM: Motor-vehicle accidents are one of the major causes of injury in most motorized countries. Driver distractions have been suggested as a contributor to traffic accidents. Moreover, age of the driver seems to have a role in the relationship between distractions and car crashes. But very few studies have investigated the effect of driver's age on this relationship. This exploratory study investigated the association between distractions, both inside and outside the vehicle, and the increased risk of car crash injury among drivers across different ages. METHOD: This study used a case series design to analyze data routinely collected by the NSW police in Australia. A special focus of this study was on how drivers' age affects the risk of car crash injury, which was determined by using a well-documented risk estimation methodology. RESULTS: The results obtained indicated that drivers of all ages, on the whole, are more susceptible to distractions inside the vehicle than distractions coming from outside. Age was shown to affect the relationship between in-vehicle distraction and the risk of car crash injury. A separate analysis was also conducted on hand-held phone usage while driving with results supplementing previous findings reported in the literature. IMPACT TO INDUSTRY: Safety strategies to countermeasure in-vehicle distractions have been suggested and discussed. 相似文献
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BACKGROUND: This study investigated the impact of subjective reports of drowsy driving and non-driving duties on the falling asleep responses and road crash involvement of professional drivers in Crete. An attempt was also made to elucidate other driving parameters, such as freight transportation, which could be potential predictors of risky driving, after controlling for lifestyle patterns. METHOD: A sample of 317 professional drivers was studied through personal interviews. The interview questionnaire included items about sleep and fatigue as contributing factors to falling asleep probability and crash risk. In addition, the drivers reported the type of freight they carried in their last trip, as well as practices such as smoking and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: The first logistic regression analysis showed that the most significant predictors of falling asleep at the wheel were transportation of fruits/vegetables and livestock, non-driving hours of work, insufficient hours of sleep, and smoking. The second logistic regression analysis revealed all the previous items as powerful factors of crash probability, including the transportation of express freight and freezer. IMPACT: The findings of the current study are discussed as they pertain to directions for future studies and for the development of fatigue countermeasures. 相似文献
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