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1.
Eight years of ambient monitoring data (1978-1985) were used to characterize O3 concentrations in eight forested areas of the United States. The analysis focused on the annual number of occurrences of hourly averaged O3 concentrations ≥0.07, 0.08, and 0.10 ppm during the growing season (April-October) as well as during the early (April-June) and late (July-October) portions of the growing season. On the average, within those areas studied, elevated O3 concentrations occurred more often in the Piedmont/Mountain/Ridge-Valley and Ohio River Valley areas than elsewhere. In the eastern United States, 1978, 1980, and 1983 were generally the years with the most occurrences of elevated O3 concentrations. In these years, the later part (July-October) of the growing season experienced more elevated concentrations than the earlier part. The results presented in this analysis were used to develop recommendations for future O3 effects research with respect to forested areas and related exposure regimes.  相似文献   

2.
Ambient O3 exposures have reduced growth rates of tree genotypes in some areas of the United States. For characterizing O3 exposures in forested areas, data from primarily population-oriented sites have been used. It has been speculated that exposures calculated from population-oriented sites provide estimates greater than those that would actually be experienced in the majority of forested areas. Accordingly, we compared 1988 O3 data from three remote forested sites with data from several population-oriented monitoring sites in and around the mid? and southern Appalachian Mountains. The number of hours ≥0.08 ppm was lower at the remote forested sites than at the nearby population-oriented locations. In addition, we characterized the temporal variability of O3 exposures in forested regions of the United States and Canada for the period 1978-1988. We found that the years of highest O3 exposure in the eastern United States during 1978-1988 were 1978, 1980, 1983, and 1988, with 1988 being the worst year in four of seven eastern forest regions. In 1988, the Whiteface Mountain summit site (1483 m) experienced approximately 10 percent more hourly average concentrations ≥0.08 ppm than in the second highest O3 exposure year (i.e., 1979). Consistently throughout the 11-year period, the highest O3 exposures at the Whiteface Mountain site occurred during the late evening and early morning hours, with the result that the longterm 7-h (0900-1559h) exposure index could not distinguish those years in which the highest exposures occurred from those in which the lowest occurred. Similar to the Whiteface Mountain site, two high-elevation Shenandoah National Park sites experienced their highest O3 exposures in 1988. With the exception of 1986, the lower elevation site (Dickey Ridge) consistently experienced more frequent occurrences of hourly average concentrations ≥0.08 ppm than the higher elevation site (Big Meadows).  相似文献   

3.
The main use of air quality forecast (AQF) models is to predict ozone (O3) exceedances of the primary O3 standard for informing the public of potential health concerns. This study presents the first evaluation of the performance of the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model to predict a variety of widely used seasonal mean and cumulative O3 exposure indices associated with vegetation using the U.S. AIRNow O3 observations. These exposure indices include two concentration-based O3 indices, M7 and M12 (the seasonal means of daytime 7-h and 12-h O3 concentrations, respectively), and three cumulative exposure-based indices, SUM06 (the sum of all hourly O3 concentrations  0.06 ppm), W126 (hourly concentrations weighed by a sigmoidal weighting function), and AOT40 (O3 concentrations accumulated over a threshold of 40 ppb during daylight hours). During a three-month simulation (July–September 2005), the model over predicted the M7 and M12 values by 8–9 ppb, or a NMB value of 19% and a NME value of 21%. The model predicts a central belt of high O3 extending from Southern California to Middle Atlantic where the seasonal means, M7 and M12 (the seasonal means of daytime 7-h and 12-h O3 concentrations), are higher than 50 ppbv. In contrast, the model is less capable of reproducing the observed cumulative indices. For AOT40, SUM06 and W126, the NMB and NME values are two- to three-fold of that for M7, M12 or peak 8-h O3 concentrations. The AOT40 values range from 2 to 33 ppm h by the model and from 1 to 40 ppm h by the monitors. There is a significantly higher AOT40 value experienced in the United States in comparison to Europe. The domain-wide mean SUM06 value is 14.4 ppm h, which is about 30% higher than W126, and 40% higher than AOT40 calculated from the same 3-month hourly O3 data. This suggests that SUM06 and W126 represent a more stringent standard than AOT40 if either the SUM06 or the W126 was used as a secondary O3 standard. Although CMAQ considerably over predicts SUM06 and W126 values at the low end, the model under predicts the extreme high exposure values (>50 ppm h). Most of these extreme high values are found at inland California sites. Based on our analysis, further improvement of the model is needed to better capture cumulative exposure indices.  相似文献   

4.
A plant injury mathematical model, applied previously to acute and chronic leaf injury data, is used here to model National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) data for 15 cultivars and to calculate species parameters from the cultivar analyses. Percent crop yield reduction is estimated as a function of a new parameter, the effective mean O3 concentration: me = [(Σ ch ?1/v)/n]?v, where ch is the hourly average ambient O3 concentration for each daytime hour (defined here as 9:00 A.M.–4:00 P.M., always standard time) of data available at an air sampling site for summer (defined here as June 1–August 31), n is the total number of such available hours, and v is an exposure time-concentration parameter, calculated here to be approximately –0.376. Crop yield reduction for soybean is calculated here as z = 0.478 In (tme 2-66) – 0.42, where z is the Gaussian transform of percent crop reduction, t is the hours of exposure (525 h is used here; 7 h/day for 75 days), and In indicates that the natural logarithm is taken of the quantity within parentheses. Crop yield reductions for seven plant species are estimated with similar equations for each of the 1824 site-years of 1981–1983 hourly O3 concentration data available in the National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). County-average effective mean O3 concentrations are indicated by shading on a U.S. map. State-average O3 parameters and estimated percent crop yield reductions are tabulated. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for O3 specifies that, on the average, the second highest daily maximum 1-h average O3 concentration in a year shall not exceed 0.12 ppm. For years 1981-1983,71% of the NADB sites recorded annual second highest daily maximum 1-h average O3 concentrations below 0.125 ppm (for summer daytime hours). Ambient O3 concentrations reduced the total U.S. crop yield an estimated 5% for years 1981–1983. (Summer, daytime, and all acronyms are always used herein as defined above.)  相似文献   

5.
It has been reported that ambient ozone (O3), either alone or in concurrence with acid rain precursors, accounts for up to 90% of US crop losses resulting from exposure to all major air pollutants. Crop damage due to O3 exposure is of particular concern as ambient O3 concentrations remain high in many major food-producing regions. Assessing O3 damage to crops is challenging due to the difficulties in determining the reduction in crop yield that results from exposure to surface O3, for which monitors are limited and mostly deployed in non-rural areas. This work explores the potential benefits of using operational air quality forecast (AQF) data to estimate rural O3 exposure. Using the results from the first nationwide AQF as a case study, we demonstrate how the O3 data provided by AQF can be combined with concurrent crop information to assess O3 damages to soybeans in the United States. We estimate that exposure to ambient O3 reduces the US soybean production by 10% in 2005.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, we estimate yield losses and economic damage of two major crops (winter wheat and rabi rice) due to surface ozone (O3) exposure using hourly O3 concentrations for the period 2002–2007 in India. This study estimates crop yield losses according to two indices of O3 exposure: 7-h seasonal daytime (0900–1600 hours) mean measured O3 concentration (M7) and AOT40 (accumulation exposure of O3 concentration over a threshold of 40 parts per billion by volume during daylight hours (0700–1800 hours), established by field studies. Our results indicate that relative yield loss from 5 to 11 % (6–30 %) for winter wheat and 3–6 % (9–16 %) for rabi rice using M7 (AOT40) index of the mean total winter wheat 81 million metric tons (Mt) and rabi rice 12 Mt production per year for the period 2002–2007. The estimated mean crop production loss (CPL) for winter wheat are from 9 to 29 Mt, account for economic cost loss was from 1,222 to 4,091 million US$ annually. Similarly, the mean CPL for rabi rice are from 0.64 to 2.1 Mt, worth 86–276 million US$. Our calculated winter wheat and rabi rice losses agree well with previous results, providing the further evidence that large crop yield losses occurring in India due to current O3 concentration and further elevated O3 concentration in future may pose threat to food security.  相似文献   

7.
Soybean percent crop reduction was estimated as a function of ambient O3 concentrations for each of 80 agricultural sites in the National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB) for each available year of data for years 1981-1985. Fourteen O3 concentration statistics were calculated for each of the resulting 320 site-years of data. The two statistics that correlated best with estimated crop reduction were an effective mean O3 concentration (1 percent of variance unexplained) and an arithmetic mean O3 concentration (4 percent unexplained). The worst correlation of the 14 was for the statistic used in the present O3 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), the second highest daily maximum 1-h O3 concentration (42 percent unexplained). The number of site-years for estimated percent soybean yield reductions was plotted versus increasing O3 concentrations for each of the 14 O3 statistics. A maximum crop reduction line was drawn on each plot. These lines were used to estimate (and list) potential ambient O3 standards for each of the 14 statistics that would limit soybean crop reduction at agricultural. NADB sites to 5, 10, 15, or 20 percent.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Analyses of ozone (O3) measurements in conjunction with photochemical modeling were used to assess the feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr O3 standard in the eastern United States. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr O3 concentrations. VOC emissions reductions alone had only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr O3 concentrations. Anthropogenic NOx emissions reductions of 46–86% of 1996 base case values were needed to reach the level of the 8-hr standard in some areas. As NOx emissions are reduced, O3 production efficiency increases, which accounts for the less than proportional response of calculated 8-hr O3 levels. Such increases in O3 production efficiency also were noted in previous modeling work for central California. O3 production in some urban core areas, such as New York City and Chicago, IL, was found to be VOC-limited. In these areas, moderate NOx emissions reductions may be accompanied by increases in peak 8-hr O3 levels. The findings help to explain differences in historical trends in 1- and 8-hr O3 levels and have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr O3 standard in several areas of the eastern United States.  相似文献   

9.
Modelling-based studies to assess the extent and magnitude of ozone (O3) risk to agriculture in Asia suggest that yield losses of 5–20% for important crops may be common in areas experiencing elevated O3 concentrations. These assessments have relied on European and North American dose–response relationships and hence assumed an equivalent Asian crop response to O3 for local cultivars, pollutant conditions and climate. To test this assumption we collated comparable dose–response data derived from fumigation, filtration and EDU experiments conducted in Asia on wheat, rice and leguminous crop species. These data are pooled and compared with equivalent North American dose–response relationships. The Asian data show that at ambient O3 concentrations found at the study sites (which vary between ~35–75 ppb 4–8 h growing season mean), yield losses for wheat, rice and legumes range between 5–48, 3–47 and 10–65%, respectively. The results indicate that Asian grown wheat and rice cultivars are more sensitive to O3 than the North American dose–response relationships would suggest. For legumes the scatter in the data makes it difficult to reach any equivalent conclusion in relative sensitivities. As such, existing modelling-based risk assessments may have substantially underestimated the scale of the problem in Asia through use of North American derived dose–response relationships.  相似文献   

10.
There is an urgent need to provide accurate air quality information and forecasts to the general public and environmental health decision-makers. This paper develops a hierarchical space–time model for daily 8-h maximum ozone concentration (O3) data covering much of the eastern United States. The model combines observed data and forecast output from a computer simulation model known as the Eta Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) forecast model in a very flexible, yet computationally fast way, so that the next day forecasts can be computed in real-time operational mode. The model adjusts for spatio-temporal biases in the Eta CMAQ forecasts and avoids a change of support problem often encountered in data fusion settings where real data have been observed at point level monitoring sites, but the forecasts from the computer model are provided at grid cell levels. The model is validated with a large amount of set-aside data and is shown to provide much improved forecasts of daily O3 concentrations in the eastern United States.  相似文献   

11.
Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O3 can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O3 concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O3 measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O3 measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O3 levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.  相似文献   

12.
Measurements of ozone concentration in the ambient air of the city of Baghdad were carried out for the period October 1983 to October 1984. The O3, probably of local origin, showed a typical diurnal and seasonal variation. Maximum daily 1-h O3 concentrations higher than the international ambient air quality standards were observed regularly during the summer months. High O3 concentrations during the night were also observed. Scatter diagrams were used to relate the O3 concentrations with temperature, solar radiation and humidity.  相似文献   

13.
The objective of this study is to compare the use of several indices of exposure in describing the relationship between O3 and reduction in agricultural crop yield. No attempt has been made to determine which exposure-response models best fit the data sets examined. Hourly mean O3 concentration data, based on two-three measurements per hour, were used to develop indices of exposure from soybean and winter wheat experiments conducted in open-top chambers at the Boyce Thompson Institute, Ithaca, New York NCLAN field site. The comparative efficacy of cumulative indices (i.e. number of occurrences equal to or above specific hourly mean concentrations, sum of all hourly mean concentrations equal to or above a selected level, and the weighted sum of all hourly mean concentrations) and means calculated over an experimental period to describe the relationship between exposure to O3 and reductions in the yield of agricultural crops was evaluated. None of the exposure indices consistently provided a best fit with the Weibull and linear models tested. The selection of the model appears to be important in determining the indices that best describe the relationship between exposure and response. The focus of selecting a model should be on fitting the data points as well as on adequately describing biological responses. The investigator should be careful to couple the model with data points derived from indices relevant to the length of exposure. While we have used a small number of data sets, our analysis indicates that exposure indices that weight peak concentrations differently than lower concentrations of an exposure regime can be used in the development of exposure-response functions. Because such indices may have merit from a regulatory perspective, we recommend that additional data sets be used in further analyses to explore the biological rationale for various indices of exposure and their use in exposure-response functions.  相似文献   

14.
Ozone measurements are reported for five rural sites in the Tennessee Valley region of the southeastern U.S. for periods ranging from 18 to 83 months during the years 1977 through 1984. Rural ozone (O3) levels were found to equal or exceed urban values for the same region. The daily maximum 1-h average concentration was found to peak during the summer months, while the 24-h average concentrations were greatest in the spring. The annual cycle of daily maximum concentrations is related to the seasonal photochemical cycle. The annual cycle in 24-h average concentrations is best explained by the combined effects of the annual cycles in solar intensity and noctural O3 depletion. There was no indication that stratospheric intrusions exhibited a significant influence on the annual O3 cycles. Evidence was found for elevated O3 levels during touchdown of plumes from large power plants. No long-term trend in rural O3 concentrations, either daily maxima or means, was discernible.  相似文献   

15.
Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O3 maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NOx emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NOx emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O3 concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NOx emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O3 concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NOx controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NOx and VOC controls on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NOx controls are predicted to increase PM2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O3 and PM2.5 concentrations.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT

Ozone and precursor trends can be used to measure the effectiveness of regulatory programs that have been implemented. In this paper, we review trends in the concentrations of O3, NOx, and HCs over North America that have been reported in the literature. Although most existing trend studies are confounded by meteorological variability, both the raw data trends and the trends adjusted for meteorology collectively indicate a general decreasing trend in O concentrations in most areas of the United States during 1985-1996. In Canada, mean daily maximum 1-hr O3 concentrations at urban sites show mixed trends with a majority of sites showing an increase from 1980 to 1993. Mean daily maximum 1-hr O3 at most regionally representative Canadian sites appears to decrease from 1985 to 1993 or shows no significant change. There are far fewer data and analyses of NOx and HC trends. Available studies covering various ranges of years indicate decreases in ambient NOx and HC concentrations in Los Angeles, CA, decreases in HC concentrations in northeastern U.S. cities, and decreases in NO concentrations in Canadian cities. Two key needs are long-term HC and NOx measurements, particularly at rural sites, and a systematic comparison of trend detection techniques on a reference data set.  相似文献   

17.
Data on dally maximum ozone concentrations measured at ambient air monitoring stations operated by state and local air pollution control agencies in the Eastern United States were analyzed using principal factor analysis. Four orthogonal factors representing O3 formation potentials were derived using the statistical package SPSS; these factors accounted for over two-thirds of the variations in 1978 summer O3 levels at 21 urban-oriented stations. The analysis confirmed that O3 variations are similar among stations within defined geographical areas; this confirmation supports the widely held theory that ambient O3 formations are reglonwlde. The analysis suggested that trends analysis for determining general progress in improving O3 air quality should be based on aggregate statistics from clusters of monitors rather than from a single monitoring station within areas associated with the derived factors.  相似文献   

18.
During Winter 2004, a series of elevated PM2.5 events occurred in Logan, Utah, coinciding with strong winter inversions. This period resulted in 17 exceedances of the 24-h PM2.5 standard, and some of the highest PM2.5 mass loadings recorded in the United States, including 9 days of 24-h PM2.5 measurements over 100 μg m−3. During the 3-month period, we monitored the size and mass concentrations of airborne particles using an aerosol mass spectrometer. PM2.5 concentrations were dominated by the formation of ammonium nitrate, accounting for over 50% of the non-refractory aerosol matter throughout the study and 80% on the highest pollution days. Another 15–20% of the particulate matter was composed of organic carbon. The high particle concentration loadings in Utah's Cache Valley result from a combination of unfavorable meteorology dominated by a severe cold-temperature inversion, a mix of rural and urban emission sources, and a confined geographical area. As a rapidly growing formerly rural area, the Cache Valley is representative of future air pollution problems facing areas of the interior west undergoing rapid urbanization.  相似文献   

19.
This paper is concerned with the spatiotemporal mapping of monthly 8-h average ozone (O3) concentrations over California during a 15-years period. The basic methodology of our analysis is based on the spatiotemporal random field (S/TRF) theory. We use a S/TRF decomposition model with a dominant seasonal O3 component that may change significantly from site to site. O3 seasonal patterns are estimated and separated from stochastic fluctuations. By means of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis, physically meaningful and sufficiently detailed space–time maps of the seasonal O3 patterns are generated across space and time. During the summer and winter months the seasonal O3 concentration maps exhibit clear and progressively changing geographical patterns over time, suggesting the existence of relationships in accordance with the typical physiographic and climatologic features of California. BME mapping accuracy can be superior to that of other techniques commonly used by EPA; its framework can rigorously assimilate useful data sources that were previously unaccounted for; the generated maps offer valuable assessments of the spatiotemporal O3 patterns that can be helpful in the identification of physical mechanisms and their interrelations, the design of human exposure and population health models, and in risk assessment. As they focus on the seasonal patterns, the maps are not contingent on short-time and locally prevalent weather conditions, which are of no interest in a global and non-forecasting framework. Moreover, the maps offer valuable insight about the space–time O3 concentration patterns and are, thus, helpful for disentangling the influence of explanatory factors or even for identifying some influential ones that could have been otherwise overlooked.  相似文献   

20.
The effects of elevated concentrations of atmospheric tropospheric ozone (O3) on DNA damage in five trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) clones growing in a free-air enrichment experiment in the presence and absence of elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) were examined. Growing season mean hourly O3 concentrations were 36.3 and 47.3 ppb for ambient and elevated O3 plots, respectively. The 4th highest daily maximum 8-h ambient and elevated O3 concentrations were 79 and 89 ppb, respectively. Elevated CO2 averaged 524 ppm (+150 ppm) over the growing season. Exposure to O3 and CO2 in combination with O3 increased DNA damage levels above background as measured by the comet assay. Ozone-tolerant clones 271 and 8L showed the highest levels of DNA damage under elevated O3 compared with ambient air; whereas less tolerant clone 216 and sensitive clones 42E and 259 had comparably lower levels of DNA damage with no significant differences between elevated O3 and ambient air. Clone 8L was demonstrated to have the highest level of excision DNA repair. In addition, clone 271 had the highest level of oxidative damage as measured by lipid peroxidation. The results suggest that variation in cellular responses to DNA damage between aspen clones may contribute to O3 tolerance or sensitivity.  相似文献   

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