An Air Quality Data Analysis System for Interrelating Effects,Standards, and Needed Source Reductions: Part 8. An Effective Mean O3 Crop Reduction Mathematical Model

A plant injury mathematical model, applied previously to acute and chronic leaf injury data, is used here to model National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) data for 15 cultivars and to calculate species parameters from the cultivar analyses. Percent crop yield reduction is estimated as a function of a new parameter, the effective mean O₃ concentration: m_e = [(Σ c_h ^?1/v)/n]^?v, where c_h is the hourly average ambient O₃ concentration for each daytime hour (defined here as 9:00 A.M.–4:00 P.M., always standard time) of data available at an air sampling site for summer (defined here as June 1–August 31), n is the total number of such available hours, and v is an exposure time-concentration parameter, calculated here to be approximately –0.376. Crop yield reduction for soybean is calculated here as z = 0.478 In (tm_e ^2-66) – 0.42, where z is the Gaussian transform of percent crop reduction, t is the hours of exposure (525 h is used here; 7 h/day for 75 days), and In indicates that the natural logarithm is taken of the quantity within parentheses. Crop yield reductions for seven plant species are estimated with similar equations for each of the 1824 site-years of 1981–1983 hourly O₃ concentration data available in the National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). County-average effective mean O₃ concentrations are indicated by shading on a U.S. map. State-average O₃ parameters and estimated percent crop yield reductions are tabulated. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for O₃ specifies that, on the average, the second highest daily maximum 1-h average O₃ concentration in a year shall not exceed 0.12 ppm. For years 1981-1983,71% of the NADB sites recorded annual second highest daily maximum 1-h average O3 concentrations below 0.125 ppm (for summer daytime hours). Ambient O₃ concentrations reduced the total U.S. crop yield an estimated 5% for years 1981–1983. (Summer, daytime, and all acronyms are always used herein as defined above.)     

Use of Plants for Air Pollution Monitoring

Leaf injury data from acute and chronic exposure studies of Dare soybean were regressed against the logarithms of exposure time and O₃ and SO₂ concentrations to develop a new two-pollutant leaf injury model (which explains 88% of the variance) and to calculate the parameters of best fit for this new model and a previously developed one-pollutant model. Using the calculated parameters, the percentage of leaf surface Injured over a growing season by O₃, SO₂, or both simultaneously was estimated for an ambient air sampling site located 2 miles from a coal burning power plant. For this site, the one- and two-pollutant models predicted that SO₂ effects would be negligible If SO₂ concentrations never exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 0.50 ppm, averaged over 3 h. However, calculations suggest that O₃ may injure up to 24% of Dare soybean leaf surface over a growing season even though the O₃ NAAQS of 0.12 ppm, averaged over 1 h, is never exceeded. Because the 3 h SO₂ standard is exceeded at very few places, the O₃ model is usually sufficient to estimate Dare soybean leaf Injury. Leaf injury is estimated by taking the logarithm of the summation of each daytime hour’s exponentiated O₃ concentration (c) measured at an ambient air sampling site over a growing season. This is expressed as: z = -0.0828 + 0.4876 in (Σco₃ ^2.618), where z is the Gaussian transform of percent leaf injury. The methods developed in this paper, using Dare soybean data as an example, may apply to other plants.     

An Evaluation of the Kriging Method to Predict 7-h Seasonal Mean Ozone Concentrations for Estimating Crop Losses

Using kriging, a statistical technique, the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) program estimated growing season 5-month (May-September) ambient 7-h mean O₃ concentrations for each of the major crop growing areas of the United States for 1978-1982. The O₃ estimates were used to predict economic benefits anticipated by lowering O₃ levels in the United States. This paper reviews NCLAN’s use of kriging to estimate 7-h seasonal mean O₃ concentrations for crop growing regions. Although the original kriging program used by NCLAN incorrectly calculated the diagonal elements of the kriging equations, this omission did not result in significant errors in the predicted estimates. Most of the data used in estimating the 7-h seasonal values were obtained from urban areas; the use of these data tended to underestimate the 7-h seasonal O₃ concentrations in rural areas. It is recommended that only O₃ data that are representative of agricultural areas and have been collected under accepted quality assurance programs be used In future kriging efforts.     

The use of air quality forecasts to assess impacts of air pollution on crops: Methodology and case study

It has been reported that ambient ozone (O₃), either alone or in concurrence with acid rain precursors, accounts for up to 90% of US crop losses resulting from exposure to all major air pollutants. Crop damage due to O₃ exposure is of particular concern as ambient O₃ concentrations remain high in many major food-producing regions. Assessing O₃ damage to crops is challenging due to the difficulties in determining the reduction in crop yield that results from exposure to surface O₃, for which monitors are limited and mostly deployed in non-rural areas. This work explores the potential benefits of using operational air quality forecast (AQF) data to estimate rural O₃ exposure. Using the results from the first nationwide AQF as a case study, we demonstrate how the O₃ data provided by AQF can be combined with concurrent crop information to assess O₃ damages to soybeans in the United States. We estimate that exposure to ambient O₃ reduces the US soybean production by 10% in 2005.     

An investigation of widespread ozone damage to the soybean crop in the upper Midwest determined from ground-based and satellite measurements

Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O₃) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O₃ can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O₃ concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O₃ measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O₃ measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O₃ levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.     

Nitrogen Oxide Flux from an Agricultural Soil During Winter Fallow in the Upper Coastal Plain of North Carolina,U.S.A.

Abstract

Incorporation of the remaining crop residue, including the root system, of grain (soybean and corn) and fiber (cotton) crops into the soil following harvest is a common agricultural practice. The crop residue represents a substantial portion of nitrogen initially applied as fertilizer, and thus is a potential source of nitrogen for NO emissions during the winter fallow period. Fluxes of NO and NO₂ were measured from fallow fields from February 7 to March 23, 1994, using a dynamic chamber technique (ambient air as the carrier gas). Average NO flux rates, as a function of previous crop residue, were 9.2 (range –4.2 to 76) ng–N m^–2 s^–1 for soybean, 6.1 (range –11.7 to 110) ng–N m^–2 s^–1 for cotton, and 4.7 (range –0.2 to 40) ng–N m^–2 s^–1 for corn. Maximum NO fluxes were observed in mid–morning when soil temperatures were lowest. Minimum NO flux occurred after mid–afternoon when soil temperature reached a maximum. The decrease in NO flux with increase in soil temperature (5 cm depth) reflected the existence of a NO compensation concentration (i.e., the rate for the NO consumption reactions continued to increase with increase in temperature). NO₂ deposition was calculated for 92% of the data points, with no trend in deposition between the three fields and their corresponding crop residue. These results indicate that significant fluxes of NO are generated from fallow agricultural fields following incorporation of the residue from the previous crop.     

Trends and Relationships of O3, NOx and HC in the South Coast Air Basin of California

A basin-wide air quality trend analysis for the South Coast Air Basin of California is conducted for hydrocarbons (HC), NO_x, O₃ and CO using multi-station composite daily maximum-hour average ambient concentrations for the third quarter (July, August and September) from 1968 to 1985. Emissions and air quality trends are compared for the period 1968-1984. Ambient HC and NOX trends are somewhat different from estimated emission trends of HC and NO_x, while a definite, downward trend of ambient CO is consistent with vehicular emission control measures. Basin-wide ambient HC, NO_x and O₃ appear to show downward trends for the period 1970-1985, but because of high fluctuations it is difficult to delineate trends for shorter periods. The meteorology (850 mb temperature)-adjusted O₃ shows a more consistent downward trend than does unadjusted O₃. Polynomial and multiplicative regression models for basin-wide empirical O₃-HC-NO_x relationships Indicate that the O₃ variation is explained largely by the meteorological variable (850 mb temperature) although model estimations are improved by adding HC and NO_x concentration terms.     

An Air Quality Data Analysis System for Interrelating Effects,Standards, and Needed Source Reductions: Part 3. Vegetation Injury

Acute leaf injury data are analyzed for 19 plant species exposed to ozone or sulfur dioxide. The data can be depicted by a new leaf injury mathematical model with two characteristics: (1) a constant percentage of leaf surface is injured by an air pollutant concentration that is inversely proportional to exposure duration raised to an exponent; (2) for a given exposure duration, the percent leaf injury as a function of pollutant concentration tends to fit a lognormal frequency distribution. Leaf injury as a function of laboratory exposure duration is modeled and compared with ambient air pollutant concentration measurements for various averaging times to determine which exposure durations are probably most important for setting ambient air quality standards to prevent or reduce visible leaf injury. The 8 hour average appears to be most important for most of the plants investigated for most sites, 1 hr concentrations are important for most plants at a few sites, and 3 hr S0₂ concentrations are important for some plants, especially those exposed to isolated point sources of the pollutant. The 1, 3, and 8 hr threshold injury concentrations are listed for each of the 19 plant species studied. To prevent or reduce acute leaf injury, fixed, nonoverlapping ambient air quality measurements and standards are recommended for averaging times of 1, 3, and 8hr.     

An Air Quality Data Analysis System for Interrelating Effects,Standards, and Needed Source Reductions: Part 11. A Lognormal Model Relating Human Lung Function Decrease to O3 Exposure

Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was measured in 21 men exercising while exposed to four O₃ concentrations (0.0,0.08,0.10, and 0.12 ppm). A lognormal multiple linear regression model was fitted to their mean FEV1 measurements to predict FEV1 percent decrease as a function of O₃ concentration and exposure duration. The exercise level used was probably comparable to heavy manual labor. The longest O₃, exposure studied was 6 h. Extrapolating cautiously to an 8-h workday of heavy manual labor, the model predicts that O3 concentrations of 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm would decrease FEV1 by 9,15, and 20 percent, respectively.     

The uptake of O3 by poplar leaves: the impact of a long-term exposure to low O3-concentrations

Poplar shoots were exposed for 3–4 weeks to filtered air, ambient (maximum values 50–60 nl ℓ^-1) or two times ambient O₃-concentrations under controlled environmental conditions in fumigation chambers. A sensitive (Populus nigra ‘Brandaris’) and a tolerant (P. euramericana ‘Robusta’) cultivar were used. At regular intervals the uptake of O₃, transpiration and CO₂ assimilation rate (P_n) of full-grown leaves were measured with leaf cuvettes. For unaffected leaves, the measured flux of O₃ into the leaves appeared to be larger than can be calculated using the stomatal conductance for O₃ (g_s,o) estimated from the transpiration rates of the same leaves. Resistance analysis revealed that the difference was partly a result of a reaction with the external leaf surface. However, when the O₃ flux into the leaf was corrected for this reaction, it was still larger than can be estimated using g_s,o. As a consequence, negative residual or internal resistances (r_i) for O₃ transport into the leaves were assessed. It is postulated that O₃ molecules moving into the leaf follow a shorter pathway than effluxing H₂O-molecules. P. ‘Brandaris’ leaves showed a reduction in P_n after 12 days of exposure to ambient O₃-concentrations, whereas for P. ‘Robusta’ a reduction in P_n was only observed at two times ambient concentrations. A simultaneous decline in the O₃-flux was found in both cases. The decline occurred before a decrease in g_s,o was observed suggesting that the O₃ flux into the affected leaves was first hindered by internal factors. The measured flux of the affected leaves became smaller than the flux estimated using g_s,o and, consequently, positive r_i-values were estimated. The change in r_i suggests that O₃ molecules not only penetrated deeper into the leaf, but also were accumulating at a prolonged exposure. Our results indicate that r_i may be a potentially important component of the overall resistance for O₃-uptake, which may have important consequences for estimating O₃ uptake from water vapour flux data.     

Protection of plants from ambient ozone by applications of ethylenediurea (EDU): A meta-analytic review

A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of ethylenediurea (EDU) on ozone (O₃) injury, growth, physiology and productivity of plants grown in ambient air conditions. Results indicated that EDU significantly reduced O₃-caused visible injury by 76%, and increased photosynthetic rate by 8%, above-ground biomass by 7% and crop yield by 15% in comparison with non-EDU treated plants, suggesting that ozone reduces growth and yield under current ambient conditions. EDU significantly ameliorated the biomass and yield of crops and grasses, but had no significant effect on tree growth with an exception of stem diameter. EDU applied as a soil drench at a concentration of 200-400 mg/L has the highest positive effect on crops grown in the field. Long-term research on full-grown tree species is needed. In conclusion, EDU is a powerful tool for assessing effects of ambient [O₃] on vegetation.     

Sulfur Dioxide Fumigation of Soybeans: Effect on Yield

In order to determine the influence of SO₂ fumigation of soybean plants on yield, a three-year experiment was conducted on 485 plois of soybeans. Single fumigations of S0₂ were applied at 10 different stages of growth in 1968-69 and 7 stages of growth in 1970. A linear relationship was found to exist beiween the percent of leaf area destroyed and ihe percent crop loss with a significant regression coefficient of b = —0.659, or iwo-thirds of one percent crop loss for each percent of area destroyed. No definite significant stage-of-growth effect was found and no treatment effects were significant for the early stages of growth from the 3-leaf to the 15-leaf stage, nor was there any loss in yield without visible leaf injury.     

Estimated crop yield losses due to surface ozone exposure and economic damage in India

In this study, we estimate yield losses and economic damage of two major crops (winter wheat and rabi rice) due to surface ozone (O₃) exposure using hourly O₃ concentrations for the period 2002–2007 in India. This study estimates crop yield losses according to two indices of O₃ exposure: 7-h seasonal daytime (0900–1600 hours) mean measured O₃ concentration (M7) and AOT40 (accumulation exposure of O₃ concentration over a threshold of 40 parts per billion by volume during daylight hours (0700–1800 hours), established by field studies. Our results indicate that relative yield loss from 5 to 11 % (6–30 %) for winter wheat and 3–6 % (9–16 %) for rabi rice using M7 (AOT40) index of the mean total winter wheat 81 million metric tons (Mt) and rabi rice 12 Mt production per year for the period 2002–2007. The estimated mean crop production loss (CPL) for winter wheat are from 9 to 29 Mt, account for economic cost loss was from 1,222 to 4,091 million US$ annually. Similarly, the mean CPL for rabi rice are from 0.64 to 2.1 Mt, worth 86–276 million US$. Our calculated winter wheat and rabi rice losses agree well with previous results, providing the further evidence that large crop yield losses occurring in India due to current O₃ concentration and further elevated O₃ concentration in future may pose threat to food security.     

Ethylenediurea (EDU): a research tool for assessment and verification of the effects of ground level ozone on plants under natural conditions

Ethylenediurea (EDU) has been widely used to prevent ozone (O₃) injury and crop losses in crop plants and growth reductions in forest trees. Successful use requires establishing a dose/response curve for EDU and the proposed plant in the absence of O₃ and in the presence of O₃ before initiating multiple applications to prevent O₃ injury. EDU can be used to verify foliar O₃ symptoms in the field, and to screen plants for sensitivity to O₃ under ambient conditions. Despite considerable research, the mode of action of EDU remains elusive. Additional research on the mode of action of EDU in suppressing O₃ injury in plants may also be helpful in understanding the mode of action of O₃ in causing injury in plants.     

Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O₃]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O₃] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O₃] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 °C.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

A comparison of indices that describe the relationship between exposure to ozone and reduction in the yield of agricultural crops

The objective of this study is to compare the use of several indices of exposure in describing the relationship between O₃ and reduction in agricultural crop yield. No attempt has been made to determine which exposure-response models best fit the data sets examined. Hourly mean O₃ concentration data, based on two-three measurements per hour, were used to develop indices of exposure from soybean and winter wheat experiments conducted in open-top chambers at the Boyce Thompson Institute, Ithaca, New York NCLAN field site. The comparative efficacy of cumulative indices (i.e. number of occurrences equal to or above specific hourly mean concentrations, sum of all hourly mean concentrations equal to or above a selected level, and the weighted sum of all hourly mean concentrations) and means calculated over an experimental period to describe the relationship between exposure to O₃ and reductions in the yield of agricultural crops was evaluated. None of the exposure indices consistently provided a best fit with the Weibull and linear models tested. The selection of the model appears to be important in determining the indices that best describe the relationship between exposure and response. The focus of selecting a model should be on fitting the data points as well as on adequately describing biological responses. The investigator should be careful to couple the model with data points derived from indices relevant to the length of exposure. While we have used a small number of data sets, our analysis indicates that exposure indices that weight peak concentrations differently than lower concentrations of an exposure regime can be used in the development of exposure-response functions. Because such indices may have merit from a regulatory perspective, we recommend that additional data sets be used in further analyses to explore the biological rationale for various indices of exposure and their use in exposure-response functions.     

Plant cell death and cellular alterations induced by ozone: key studies in Mediterranean conditions

An account of histo-cytological and ultrastructural studies on ozone effect on crop and forest species in Italy is given, with emphasis on induced cell death and the underlying mechanisms. Cell death phenomena possibly due to ambient O₃ were recorded in crop and forest species. In contrast, visible O₃ effects on Mediterranean vegetation are often unclear. Microscopy is thus suggested as an effective tool to validate and evaluate O₃ injury to Mediterranean vegetation. A DAB-Evans blue staining was proposed to validate O₃ symptoms at the microscopic level and for a pre-visual diagnosis of O₃ injury. The method has been positively tested in some of the most important crop species, such as wheat, tomato, bean and onion and, with some restriction, in forest species, and it also allows one to gain some very useful insights into the mechanisms at the base of O₃ sensitivity or tolerance.     

Parameter Evaluation and Model Validation of Ozone Exposure Assessment Using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study Data

Abstract

To examine factors influencing long‐term ozone (O₃) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O₃ concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one‐year‐long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O₃ concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance‐covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best‐linear unbiased prediction technique.The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O₃ concentration, central ambient O₃ concentration, outdoor O₃ concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O₃ concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O₃ for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost‐effectively predict personal O₃ exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost‐effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.     

Photochemical Smog Modeling for Assessment of Potential Impacts of Different Management Strategies on Air Quality of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region,Thailand

Abstract

A photochemical smog model system, the Variable-Grid Urban Airshed Model/Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model (UAM-V/SAIMM), was used to investigate photochemical pollution in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). The model system was first applied to simulate a historical photochemical smog episode of two days (January 13-14, 1997) using the 1997 anthropogenic emission database available at the Pollution Control Department and an estimated biogenic emission. The output 1-hr ozone (O₃) for BMR, however, did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggested performance criteria. The simulated minimum and maximum O₃ values in the domain were much higher than the observations. Multiple model runs with different precursor emission reduction scenarios showed that the best model performance with the simulated 1-hr O₃ meeting all the criteria was obtained when the volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emission from mobile source reduced by 50% and carbon monoxide by 20% from the original database. Various combinations of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in Bangkok and surrounding provinces were simulated to assess the contribution of different sources to O₃ pollution in the city. O₃ formation in Bangkok was found to be more VOC-sensitive than NO_x-sensitive. To attain the Thailand ambient air quality standard for 1-hr O₃ of 100 ppb, VOC emission in BMR should be reduced by 50-60%. Management strategies considered in the scenario study consist of Stage I, Stage II vapor control, replacement of two-stroke by four-stroke motorcycles, 100% compressed natural gas bus, 100% natural gas-fired power plants, and replacement of methyltertiarybutylether by ethanol as an additive for gasoline.