Improving the accuracy of emission inventories with a machine-learning approach and investigating transferability across cities

ABSTRACT

This study presents a novel method for integrating the output of a microscopic emission modeling approach with a regional traffic assignment model in order to achieve an accurate greenhouse gas (GHG, in CO_2-eq) emission estimate for transportation in large metropolitan regions. The CLustEr-based Validated Emission Recalculation (CLEVER) method makes use of instantaneous speed data and link-based traffic characteristics in order to refine on-road GHG inventories. The CLEVER approach first clusters road links based on aggregate traffic characteristics, then assigns representative emission factors (EFs), calibrated using the output of microscopic emission modeling. In this paper, cluster parameters including number and feature vector were calibrated with different sets of roads within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), while assessing the spatial transferability of the algorithm. Using calibrated cluster sets, morning peak GHG emissions in the GTA were estimated to be 2,692 tons, which is lower than the estimate generated by a traditional, average speed approach (3,254 tons). Link-level comparison between CLEVER and the average speed approach demonstrates that GHG emissions for uncongested links were overestimated by the average speed model. In contrast, at intersections and ramps with more congested links and interrupted traffic flow, the average speed model underestimated GHG emissions. This proposed approach is able to capture variations in traffic conditions compared to the traditional average speed approach, without the need to conduct traffic simulation.

Implications: A reliable traffic emissions estimate is necessary to evaluate transportation policies. Currently, accuracy and transferability are major limitations in modeling regional emissions. This paper develops a hybrid modeling approach (CLEVER) to bridge between computational efficiency and estimation accuracy. Using a k-means clustering algorithm with street-level traffic data, CLEVER generates representative emission factors for each cluster. The approach was validated against the baseline (output of a microscopic emission model), demonstrating transferability across different cities .     

Relation between the exergy of waste emissions and measures of environmental impact

In an attempt to improve methodologies for assessing and predicting environmental impact, the relation between several measures of environmental impact potential and exergy is investigated. Exergy is a measure of the degree of disequilibrium between a substance and its environment. The approach taken compares current methods used to assess the environmental impact potential of waste emissions and the exergy associated with those emissions. The measures of environmental impact potential considered are the Ontario 7le of industrial air emission limits, and two methods of assessing the environmental costs for air emissions resulting from the combustion of three common fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. A relationship was identified between one environmental costing methodology and exergy. Further work appears to be justified, using more data, to verify this relation, and to detect other relationships between the exergy of waste emissions and measures of environmental impact.     

A pragmatic approach for estimation of source-zone emissions at LNAPL contaminated sites

When considering natural attenuation as a remediation strategy at a site contaminated by a light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL), it is important to consider the emission of contaminants from the source zone. A quantification of source-zone emissions is essential both for comparison with down-gradient mass fluxes to provide an estimate of fractional mass flux reduction, as well as for estimating the source lifetime. Because the spatial distribution of LNAPL at a field site is strongly dependent on both the spill circumstances and the heterogeneity of the geologic materials, which can be problematic for in-situ determination, alternative methods for estimating source-zone emissions are needed. In this work, a three-dimensional multiphase flow and transport modelling approach is used to investigate the relationship between the lateral extent of an LNAPL body and the emission of contaminants to groundwater at a contaminated site. For simulations involving an LNAPL release in an aquifer comprised of heterogeneous porosity and permeability distributions that were generated geostatistically, it is shown that a simple linear relationship exists between the lateral extent of the LNAPL body in the capillary fringe and the emission to the aqueous phase. The parameters describing the relationship are found to be linear functions of the groundwater flow velocity and the vertical infiltration rate. This site-specific relationship provides a simple method to estimate contaminant emissions to groundwater at LNAPL contaminated sites.     

Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry

The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World’s largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975–2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause–effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World’s region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state.     

A simple model which predicts some non-linear features between atmospheric sulphur and sulphur emissions

This paper develops a simple model and suggests a plausible chemico-physical mechanism for a non-linear response between atmospheric sulphur and sulphur emissions. It contains simplified representations of transport, deposition and conversion processes and uses a proxy in-cloud oxidant-limited reaction along a pathway connecting an emission source with a receptor site. Individual pathway responses to emissions show linear behaviour above a threshold. However, by averaging the values of SO2 at the receptor site from different pathways a continuous non-linear relationship is obtained. As emissions reduce, distant emission sources become less significant contributors of sulphur dioxide at a receptor site but their emissions are still counted in an emission inventory, leading to an apparent non-linearity. Sulphate is always found to contribute a signal to the receptor site total. This model goes someway to explaining a proposed 'crossover' between observed proportions of wet and dry deposited sulphur in the UK as emissions have been reduced.     

Electricity from fossil fuels without CO2 emissions: assessing the costs of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration in U.S. electricity markets.

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO2 emissions via CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO2 mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO2 capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a "bottom-up" engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Testing the relationship between globalization and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan: does environmental Kuznets curve exist?

Over the last few decades, the atmospheric carbon dioxide emission has been amplified to a great extent in Pakistan. This amplification may cause global warming, climate change, and environmental degradation in Pakistan. Consequently, ecological condition and human life may suffer in the near future from these indicated threats. Therefore, an attempt was made to test the relationship between globalization and carbon dioxide emissions in case of Pakistan. The study covers the time series data over the period of 1975–2014. We employed modern econometric techniques such as Johansen co-integration, ARDL bound testing approach, and variance decomposition analysis. Results of the Johansen co-integration test show that there is a significant long-run relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and globalization. The long-run elasticities of the ARDL model show that a 1% increase in economic globalization, political globalization, and social globalization will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.38, 0.19, and 0.11%, respectively. Further, our findings reveal that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis prevails an inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth. Therefore, the EKC hypothesis is valid in the presence of globalization. The diagnostic test results show that the parameters of the ARDL model are credible, stable, and reliable in the current form. Finally, variance decomposition analysis displays that economic, political, and social globalization are contributing significantly to carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan.

     

A contemporary landscape of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions leads to inevitable phenomena of low birthweight

The objective of the study is to empirically examine the air pollution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and low birth weight in Pakistan through the cointegration and error correction model over a 36-year time period, i.e., between 1975 and 2012. The study employed the Johansen cointegration technique to estimate the long-run relationship between the variables, while an error correction model was used to determine the short-run dynamics of the system. The study was limited to the following variables, including carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, GHG emissions, and low birth weight in order to manage robust data analysis. The results reveal that air pollution and GHG emissions significantly affects the low birth weight in Pakistan. In the long run, carbon dioxide emissions act as a strong contributor for low birth weight, as the coefficient value indicates there is a more elastic relationship (i.e., ?1.214, p?p?p?相似文献   

Income inequality,ecological footprint,and carbon dioxide emissions in Asian developing economies: what effects what and how?

The reduction of income inequality and environmental vulnerability is the most important factor, through which we can achieve the target of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The past papers have investigated the nexus between income inequality and carbon emissions; however, the relationship between income inequality and carbon emissions along with ecological footprint has not been studied in the case of developing countries. To this end, this study analyzed the impact of income inequality on both carbon emissions and ecological footprint as well as the impact of carbon emission and ecological footprint on income inequality by using the dataset from 2006 to 2017 for the 18 Asian developing economies. This study confirmed the positive relationship between carbon emissions, ecological footprint, and income inequality under the methodology of Driscoll and Kraay (D&K) standard error approach. Specifically, a higher-income gap is destructive for environmental degradation, whereas increasing level of carbon emissions and ecological footprint also leads to rising income inequality in the investigated region. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI), easy access to electricity, and population growth control income inequality, but they have a detrimental effect on both ecological footprint and carbon emissions. The empirical findings also provide some important policy implications.

     

Nexus among electricity consumption,foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity towards Nigeria’s economic performance: evidence from a trivariate causality model

It is evident that there is nexus among electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity. Unfortunately, the causal relationship among the three variables in Nigeria based on modern econometric methods, recent time-series data and ways that sufficiently cater for inflation and population growth has not been adequately investigated. This study, among other things, used a trivariate vector error correction model, autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality test to analyse the causal relationship among electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity based on time-series data from 1970 to 2018. The study found the presence of neutral causality between electricity consumption and aggregate economic activity in the short run as well as unidirectional causality from aggregate economic activity to electricity consumption in the long run. The study also found the presence of unidirectional causality from foreign direct investment to electricity consumption as well as neutral causality between foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity in both the short run and the long run. It is therefore recommended that steps should be taken to adequately increase foreign direct investment and aggregate economic activity in ways that will guarantee an optimal increase in electricity consumption in Nigeria.

     

Biofuel consumption,biodiversity, and the environmental Kuznets curve: trivariate analysis in a panel of biofuel consuming countries

This study examined the relationship between biofuel consumption, forest biodiversity, and a set of national scale indicators of per capita income, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, trade openness, and population density with a panel data of 12 biofuels consuming countries for a period of 2000 to 2013. The study used Global Environmental Facility (GEF) biodiversity benefits index and forest biodiversity index in an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. The results confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between GEF biodiversity index and per capita income, while there is flat/no relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and between forest biodiversity and economic growth models. FDI inflows and trade openness both reduce carbon emissions while population density and biofuel consumption increase carbon emissions and decrease GEF biodiversity index. Trade openness supports to increases GEF biodiversity index while it decreases forest biodiversity index and biofuel consumption in a region.

     

A greenhouse gas emissions inventory for Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory presented in this paper provides detailed estimates of emissions and their sources for the six major categories of GHGs. The inventory was compiled using the current U.S. Environment Protection Agency methodology, which applies emissions factors to socioeconomic data, such as fossil energy use, vehicle miles traveled, and industrial production. The paper also contains an assessment of the methodology and suggestions for improving accounting with respect to process, sectoral, and geographic considerations. The study found that Pennsylvania emitted 77.4 million metric tons carbon equivalent of GHGs in 1990 and that this total increased by 3% to 79.8 million metric tons carbon equivalent by 1999. Despite this increase, however, the state's percentage contribution to the United States total declined during the decade. Pennsylvania's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels represented 92.4% of 1990 totals and declined to 90.5% in 1999. Electricity generation was the largest single source of CO2 emissions, being responsible for 38% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 1990 and 40% of the total in 1999. Transportation emissions accounted for the largest increases in emissions between 1990 and 1999, whereas industrial emissions accounted for the largest decrease. The overall trend indicates that Pennsylvania has been able to weaken the relationship between GHG emissions and economic growth.     

Evaluating Sources of Indoor Air Pollution

Evaluation of Indoor air pollution problems requires an understanding of the relationship between sources, air movement, and outdoor air exchange. Research is underway to investigate these relationships. A three-phase program is being implemented: 1) Environmental chambers are used to provide source emission factors for specific indoor pollutants; 2) An IAQ (Indoor Air Quality) model has been developed to calculate indoor pollutant concentrations based on chamber emissions data and the air exchange and air movement within the indoor environment; and 3) An IAQ test house is used to conduct experiments to evaluate the model results. Examples are provided to show how this coordinated approach can be used to evaluate specific sources of indoor air pollution. Two sources are examined: 1) para-dichlorobenzene emissions from solid moth repellant; and 2) particle emissions from unvented kerosene heaters.

The evaluation process for both sources followed the three-phase approach discussed above. Para-dichlorobenzene emission factors were determined by small chamber testing at EPA’s Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory. Particle emission factors for the kerosene heaters were developed In large chambers at the J. B. Pierce Foundation Laboratory. Both sources were subsequently evaluated in EPA’s IAQ test house. The IAQ model predictions showed good agreement with the test house measurements when appropriate values were provided for source emissions, outside air exchange, in-house air movement, and deposition on “sink” surfaces.     

How to bend down the environmental Kuznets curve: the significance of biomass energy

Sources of renewable energy have received wide attention in the literature because of serious threats to the environment. However, some renewable resources, including biomass energy role is debatable in the energy economics literature. This empirical work focuses to analyze the role of biomass energy in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Pakistan over the period from 1980 to 2015. The bound testing approach suggests there is cointegration among study variables. The study uses an auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) with a structural break in the series. To summarize the findings of the study, it can be inferred that biomass energy increase CO₂ emissions. In addition, biomass energy helps to form a U-shaped relationship between income and CO₂ emissions that support the EKC hypothesis. Also, the feedback hypothesis is found between biomass energy and CO₂ emissions. The findings would guide policymaker with practical guidelines to formulate policies to utilize a high amount of biomass energy in a sustainable manner.

     

Evaluating sources of indoor air pollution

Evaluation of indoor air pollution problems requires an understanding of the relationship between sources, air movement, and outdoor air exchange. Research is underway to investigate these relationships. A three-phase program is being implemented: 1) Environmental chambers are used to provide source emission factors for specific indoor pollutants; 2) An IAQ (Indoor Air Quality) model has been developed to calculate indoor pollutant concentrations based on chamber emissions data and the air exchange and air movement within the indoor environment; and 3) An IAQ test house is used to conduct experiments to evaluate the model results. Examples are provided to show how this coordinated approach can be used to evaluate specific sources of indoor air pollution. Two sources are examined: 1) para-dichlorobenzene emissions from solid moth repellant; and 2) particle emissions from unvented kerosene heaters. The evaluation process for both sources followed the three-phase approach discussed above. Para-dichlorobenzene emission factors were determined by small chamber testing at EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory. Particle emission factors for the kerosene heaters were developed in large chambers at the J. B. Pierce Foundation Laboratory. Both sources were subsequently evaluated in EPA's IAQ test house. The IAQ model predictions showed good agreement with the test house measurements when appropriate values were provided for source emissions, outside air exchange, in-house air movement, and deposition on "sink" surfaces.     

Modeling relationships between indoor and outdoor air quality

Information about the ratio between indoor and outdoor concentrations (IO ratios) of air pollutants is a crucial component in human exposure assessment. The present study examines the relationship between indoor and outdoor concentrations as influenced by the combined effect of time patterns in outdoor concentrations, ventilation rate, and indoor emissions. Two different mathematical approaches are used to evaluate IO ratios. The first approach involves a dynamic mass balance model that calculates distributions of transient IO ratios. The second approach assumes a linear relationship between indoor and outdoor concentrations. We use ozone and benzene as examples in various modeling exercises. The modeled IO ratio distributions are compared with the results obtained from linear fits through plots of indoor versus outdoor concentrations.     

Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Development of a local carbon dioxide emissions inventory based on energy demand and waste production

This paper describes the study that led to the development of a carbon dioxide emissions matrix for the Oeiras municipality, one of the largest Portuguese municipalities, located in the metropolitan area of Lisbon. This matrix takes into account the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to an increase of electricity demand in buildings as well as solid and liquid wastes treatment from the domestic and services sectors. Using emission factors that were calculated from the relationship between the electricity produced and amount of treated wastes, the GHC emissions in the Oeiras municipality were estimated for a time series of 6 yr (1998-2003). The obtained results showed that the electricity sector accounts for approximately 75% of the municipal emissions in 2003. This study was developed to obtain tools to base options and actions to be undertaken by local authorities such as energy planning and also public information.     

A methodology for the estimation of road transport air emissions in urban areas of Italy

This paper focuses on the top–down approach for estimating road transport emissions at a local level. A bottom–up approach is preferable where the data and information required by estimation methodologies are available at regional territorial level. In the absence of this regional data, emissions are adapted from national to smaller levels by means of proxy variables. This study highlights the importance of an improvement of the top–down methodology and identifies a corrective index to better characterise road transport emissions at a local level. A set of indicators related to transport activities is selected in order to identify homogeneous areas in the Italian territory. For each area, COPERT (Computer Programme to estimate Emissions from Road Traffic) methodology is applied to estimate the atmospheric emissions of different pollutants; the same methodology is used to calculate road transport emissions at a national level. The results, calculated according to vehicle category and driving mode, are compared with those deriving from a spatial disaggregation of national data by means of simple surrogate variables.     

Screening Approach for Principal Organic Hazardous Constituents and Products of Incomplete Combustion

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to those individuals concerned with developing or implementing screening strategies for characterizing organic emissions from incinerators and other combustion sources. The need to characterize hazardous waste incinerator emissions for multiple organic compounds has been steadily increasing for several years. The regulatory approach makes use of a type of indicator compound procedure that concentrates on principal organic hazardous constituents (POHCs). In addition to continuing interest in POHCs, interest has been growing in the types and concentrations of products of incomplete combustion (PICs). Sampling and analysis methods have been developed previously for approximately 225 of the more important POHCs and PICs. These methods may be used as components of a cost-effective screening protocol aimed at maximum characterization of emissions, whether the project budget is large or small. This paper contains a discussion of fundamental principles of several kinds of screening strategies and recommends an approach suitable for incinerators and other combustion sources. The concept of a risk-driven analysis strategy is introduced and illustrated with a simplified example.