Anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx in Asia: Emission inventories

The anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x for 25 Asian countries east of Afghanistan and Pakistan have been calculated for 1975, 1980, 1985, 1986 and 1987 based on fuel consumption, sulfur content in fuels and emission factors for used fuels in each emission category. The provincial- and regional-based calculations have also been made for China and India. The total SO₂ emissions in these parts of Asia have been calculated to be 18.3 and 29.1 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The calculated total NO_x emissions were 9.4 and 15.5 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The SO₂ and NO_x emissions in East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Taiwan) were 23.4 and 10.7 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively.Keyword: Emission inventories, sulfur dioxide emissions, nitrogen oxide emissions, Asian emissions, anthropogenic emissions.     

An Appraisal of Epidemiologic Data Concerning the Effect of Oxidants,Nitrogen Dioxide and Hydrocarbons upon Human Populations

A procedure is developed for determining costs to reduce air pollution emissions in a metropolitan area. Methods are. sufficiently general to be applicable in any region and sufficiently comprehensive to include analysis of all major sources, future trends, control limitations, and other factors of importance in a dynamic community. The analytical procedure examines relationships among emission inventories, regional growth, control trends, alternate control schemes, control costs, and optimum cost-effectiveness.

The cost analysis procedure is tested by application to the Delaware Valley. Costs are determined for reducing emissions to various levels between the years 1960 and 2000. Emissions from private automobiles are projected to decrease below the 1960 emission rate by 1980, at a cost of 150 million dollars per year. Stationary source emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulates can be reduced to 1960 levels by 1980 for 37 million dollars per year if "least cost" procedures are used (selective abatement). Uniform conversion to 0.5% sulfur fuel oil (equiproportional abatement) can effect a similar reduction in emissions for about 94 million dollars per year in 1980. Other cost analysis comparisons are made and projections to the year 2000 are included.     

Product Gudie/1987

A computer program has been written to determine the cost of building and operating wet scrubbers on individual coal fired utilities in the states where emissions are likely to affect the acid rain problem in the eastern United States. The program differs from many other estimates since it calculates the cost for each of 831 individual sites. The capital costs for installing scrubbers on the top fifty sulfur oxide emitting plants will be about $20 billion. This will result in an increase in the cost of electricity on an average of 0.88 cents/kWh and a reduction of sulfur oxide emissions from 1980 of 7,100,000 tons per year. An additional reduction of at least 1,000,000 tons per year can be obtained by requiring all plants burning oil to burn low sulfur oil. These figures assume utilities will use least emissions dispatching and will use local coals containing at least 3.5 percent sulfur. The use of local coals should result in a further saving of at least 0.2 cents/kWh. This should make available a large supply of low sulfur coal which could reduce emissions of sulfur oxides by up to 1,000,000 tons per year. The SO₂ reductions will be continued for at least the next thirteen years and have a very significant effect through the year 2010.     

Estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860–1993

This paper provides the first time series estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions from the mid-19th century to the present. Our purpose is to provide time series estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions for global climate models estimated or calibrated using historical time series data. Previous estimates of methane emissions include “top-down” (deconvolution) estimates of total emissions, estimates of global anthropogenic emissions for the 16th century, and various estimates of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the 1980s and 1990s. This study uses previously published point estimates for the 16th century and the 1980s and early 1990s and a variety of historical time series of proxy variables to estimate a time series of global anthropogenic methane emissions. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions have increased from about 80 million tonnes per annum in 1860 to about 380 million tonnes in 1990. The relative importance of various emission sources changes over time. The rate of increase now may be slowing. A comparison with the estimates generated by Khalil and Rasmussen suggests that natural sources of methane have declined over the period. There are, however, great uncertainties in these estimates which future research may be able to reduce.     

Forest ecosystems and the changing patterns of nitrogen input and acid deposition today and in the future based on a scenario

A global assessment of the impact of the anthropogenic perturbation of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles on forest ecosystems is carried out for both the present-day [1980-1990] and for a projection into the future [2040-2050] under a scenario of economic development which represents a medium path of development according to expert guess [IPCC IS92a]. Results show that forest soils will receive considerably increasing loads of nitrogen and acid deposition and that deposition patterns are likely to change. The regions which are most prone to depletion of soils buffering capacity and supercritical nitrogen deposition are identified in the subtropical and tropical regions of South America and Southeast Asia apart from the well known 'hotspots' North-Eastern America and Central Europe. The forest areas likely to meet these two risks are still a minor fraction of the global forest ecosystems, though. But the bias between eutrophication and acidification will become greater and an enhanced growth triggered by the fertilizing effects of increasing nitrogen input cannot be balanced by the forest soils nutrient pools. Results show increasing loads into forest ecosystems which are likely to account for 46% higher acid loads and 36% higher nitrogen loads in relation to the 1980-1990 situation. Global background deposition of up to 5 kg N ha-1 a-1 will be exceeded at more than 25% of global forest ecosystems and at more than 50% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils. More than 33% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils will receive acid loads which exceeds their buffering capacity. About 25% of forest areas with exceeded acid loads will receive critical nitrogen loads.     

Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions from U.S. pulp and paper mills, 1980-2005

Comprehensive surveys conducted at 5-yr intervals were used to estimate sulfur dioxide (SO,) and nitrogen oxides (NO.) emissions from U.S. pulp and paper mills for 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. Over the 25-yr period, paper production increased by 50%, whereas total SO, emissions declined by 60% to 340,000 short tons (t) and total NO, emissions decreased approximately 15% to 230,000 t. The downward emission trends resulted from a combination of factors, including reductions in oil and coal use, steadily declining fuel sulfur content, lower pulp and paper production in recent years, increased use of flue gas desulfurization systems on boilers, growing use of combustion modifications and add-on control systems to reduce boiler and gas turbine NO, emissions, and improvements in kraft recovery furnace operations.     

Acidification in developing countries: ecosystem sensitivity and the critical load approach on a global scale

Acidification represents a growing threat to certain developing country ecosystems in tropical and subtropical climates. A methodology investigating the extent of acidification risks from sulfur emissions on a global scale is presented. Atmospheric transfer models have been used to calculate transfer and deposition of sulfur (using emissions for 1990 and a projection for 2050) and alkaline soil dust. A method to derive the relative sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems is explained and preliminary critical load values are assigned. A range of values for critical loads and base cation deposition have been used to investigate uncertainty in maps depicting the excess of deposition above critical loads. These show an increasing risk of acidification in 2050 in extended regions of southern and eastern Asia, as well as parts of southern Africa, in comparison to 1990. Certain areas, especially in Asia, are shown at risk even when high values of critical load and base cation deposition are used.     

Some Technical and Economic Aspects of Residual Fuel Oil Desulfurization

Combustion of residual, the most common type of fuel oil used in industrial and commercial steam generating plants, accounts for about 600,000 tons or 37 percent of the sulfur oxide emissions in New York state. On the average, residual oil available in New York state contains about 2.2 percent sulfur and is consumed at an annual rate of approximately 85 million barrels. The removal of sulfur from many types of residuals should become economically feasible as a result of the development of the HDS and H-Oil hydrodesulfurization processes. From studies recently made, these methods of desulfurization have been estimated to vary from a minimum of no appreciable increase in overall cost to a maximum of about one cent per gallon. The by-product distillates produced in hydrodesulfurization are a very significant factor in making the process economical and the demand for these is increasing at a greater rate than residual.     

Monoaromatic compounds in ambient air of various cities: a focus on correlations between the xylenes and ethylbenzene

Speciation of o-xylene, m-xylene, p-xylene and ethylbenzene was performed by gas chromatography from ambient air and liquid fuel samples collected at various locations in 19 cities in Europe, Asia and South America. The xylene's mixing ratios were compared to each other from the various locations, which included urban air, traffic air and liquid fuel. For all samples, the xylenes exhibited robust correlations, and the slopes remained constant. The m-xylene/p-xylene ratio was found to be 2.33±0.30, and the m-xylene/o-xylene ratio was found to be 1.84±0.25. These ratios remain persistent even in biomass combustion experiments (in South America and South Africa). Comparing the xylenes to toluene and benzene indicate that combustion, but not fuel evaporation, is the major common source of the xylenes in areas dominated by automotive emissions. Although a wide range of combustion types and combustion efficiencies were encountered throughout all the locations investigated, xylenes and ethylbenzene ratios remained persistent. We discuss the implications of the constancies in the xylenes and ethylbenzene ratios on atmospheric chemistry.     

Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxides Emissions from U.S. Pulp and Paper Mills, 1980–2005

Abstract

Comprehensive surveys conducted at 5-yr intervals were used to estimate sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions from U.S. pulp and paper mills for 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. Over the 25-yr period, paper production increased by 50%, whereas total SO₂ emissions declined by 60% to 340,000 short tons (t) and total NO_x emissions decreased approximately 15% to 230,000 t. The downward emission trends resulted from a combination of factors, including reductions in oil and coal use, steadily declining fuel sulfur content, lower pulp and paper production in recent years, increased use of flue gas desulfurization systems on boilers, growing use of combustion modifications and add-on control systems to reduce boiler and gas turbine NO_x emissions, and improvements in kraft recovery furnace operations.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Energy use and emissions from marine vessels: a total fuel life cycle approach

Regional and global air pollution from marine transportation is a growing concern. In discerning the sources of such pollution, researchers have become interested in tracking where along the total fuel life cycle these emissions occur. In addition, new efforts to introduce alternative fuels in marine vessels have raised questions about the energy use and environmental impacts of such fuels. To address these issues, this paper presents the Total Energy and Emissions Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model. TEAMS can be used to analyze total fuel life cycle emissions and energy use from marine vessels. TEAMS captures "well-to-hull" emissions, that is, emissions along the entire fuel pathway, including extraction, processing, distribution, and use in vessels. TEAMS conducts analyses for six fuel pathways: (1) petroleum to residual oil, (2) petroleum to conventional diesel, (3) petroleum to low-sulfur diesel, (4) natural gas to compressed natural gas, (5) natural gas to Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and (6) soybeans to biodiesel. TEAMS calculates total fuel-cycle emissions of three greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane) and five criteria pollutants (volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of 10 microm or less, and sulfur oxides). TEAMS also calculates total energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and petroleum consumption associated with each of its six fuel cycles. TEAMS can be used to study emissions from a variety of user-defined vessels. This paper presents TEAMS and provides example modeling results for three case studies using alternative fuels: a passenger ferry, a tanker vessel, and a container ship.     

Input of trichloroacetic acid into the vegetation of various climate zones--measurements on several continents

Trichloroacetic acid (TCA, CCl(3)COOH) is a phytotoxic chemical. Although TCA salts and derivates were once used as herbicides to combat perennial grasses and weeds, they have since been banned because of their indiscriminate herbicidal effects on woody plant species. However, TCA can also be formed in the atmosphere. For instance, the high-volatile C(2)-chlorohydrocarbons tetrachloroethene (TECE, C(2)Cl(4)) and 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCE, CCl(3)CH(3)) can react under oxidative conditions in the atmosphere to form TCA and other substances. The ongoing industrialisation of Southeast Asia, South Africa and South America means that use of TECE as solvents in the metal and textile industries of these regions in the southern hemisphere can be expected to rise. The increasing emissions of this substance--together with the rise in the atmospheric oxidation potential caused by urban activities, slash and burn agriculture and forest fires in the southern hemisphere--could lead to a greater input/formation of TCA in the vegetation located in the lee of these emission sources. By means of biomonitoring studies, the input/formation of TCA in vegetation was detected at various locations in South America, North America, Africa, and Europe.     

A new inventory for two-wheel vehicle emissions in West Africa for 2002

Rather surprisingly, urban atmospheric particulate levels in West Africa compare with measured concentrations in Europe and Asia megacities (Liousse, C., Galy-Lacaux, C., Assamoi, E.-M., Ndiaye, A., Diop, B., Cachier, H., Doumbia, T., Gueye, P., Yoboue, V., Lacaux, J.-P., Guinot, B., Guillaume, B., Rosset, R., Castera, P., Gardrat, E., Zouiten, C., Jambert, C., Diouf, A., Koita, O., Baeza, A., Annesi-Maesano, I., Didier, A., Audry, S., Konare, A., 2009. Integrated Focus on West African Cities (Cotonou, Bamako, Dakar, Ouagadougou, Abidjan, Niamey): Emissions, Air Quality and Health Impacts of Gases and Aerosols. Third International AMMA Conference on Predictability of the West African Moosoon Weather, Climate and Impacts. Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. July 20–24). This pollution mainly derives from road traffic emissions with, in some capitals (e.g. Cotonou), the strong contribution of two-wheel vehicles. Two key questions arise: are presently available emission inventories (e.g. Junker, C., Liousse, C., 2008. A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860–1997. Atmospheric Chemistry Physics, 8, 1–13; Bond, T.C., Streets, D.G., Yarber, K.F., Nelson, S.M., Woo, J.H., Klimont, Z., 2004. A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1009, D14203, DOI:10.1029/2003JD003697) able to account for these emissions? And, if not, how can we remedy this? The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology to estimate emissions produced by two-wheel vehicles in West Africa for 2002 in a context where reliable information is hardly available. Fuel consumption ratios between two-wheel engines (in this work) and all vehicles issued from UN database (http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=EDATA&f=cmID%3aMO%3btrID%3a1221) are as high as 169%, 264% and 628%, for Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad respectively, indicating that this global database does not properly account for regional specificities. Moreover, emission factors for black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (OCp) have been measured for two-stroke engines in Benin (Guinot, B., Liousse, C., Cachier, H., Guillaume, B., et al. New emission factor estimates for biofuels and mobile sources. Atmospheric Environment, in press.), giving significantly higher values than in Europe. This is particularly true for OCp, and consequently the calculated emissions for two-stroke engines are also significantly larger than total road traffic previously estimated in global inventories (Junker and Liousse (2008) with United Nations database for 2002; Bond et al., 2004). The ensuing discussion illustrates the importance of two-stroke engines in the West Africa transport sector and the strong need for inventory updating.     

A 700-year record of mercury in avian eggshells of Guangjin Island, South China Sea

Ancient eggshells over the past 700 years were extracted from an ornithogenic sediment profile on Guangjin Island, South China Sea. Based on SEM and nitrogen isotope analyses, we determined that neither post-depositional processes nor seabirds’ dietary changes had a large influence on eggshell Hg levels. The historical change of Hg in these eggshells was reconstructed. Eggshell Hg was a marker for past Hg deposition in marine environment. The eggshell Hg showed three small peaks at around 1300AD, 1600 AD and 1700-1750AD and rapid increase since 1800 AD. Before 1970 AD the Hg deposition in the Xisha area had global distribution characteristics, with increased Hg emissions due to global anthropogenic activities in industrial times. However, after 1970 AD, a further sharp increase up to present day occurred, implying that the Hg production center had gradually shifted from Europe and America to Asia.     

Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000

The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.     

Long-range transport of acidifying substances in East Asia—Part II: Source–receptor relationships

Region-to-grid source–receptor (S/R) relationships are established for sulfur and reactive nitrogen deposition in East Asia, using the Eulerian-type Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with emission and meteorology data for 2001. We proposed a source region attribution methodology by analyzing the non-linear responses of the CMAQ model to emission changes. Sensitivity simulations were conducted where emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and primary particles from a source region were reduced by 25%. The difference between the base and sensitivity simulations was multiplied by a factor of four, and then defined as the contribution from that source region. The transboundary influence exhibits strong seasonal variation and generally peaks during the dry seasons. Long-range transport from eastern China contributes a significant percentage (>20%) of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen as well as sulfur deposition in East Asia. At the same time, northwestern China receives approximately 35% of its sulfur load and 45% of its nitrogen load from foreign emissions. Sulfur emissions from Miyakejima and other volcanoes contribute approximately 50% of the sulfur load in Japan in 2001. Sulfur inflows from regions outside the study domain, which is attributed by using boundary conditions derived from the MOZART global atmospheric chemistry model, are pronounced (10–40%) over most parts of Asia. Compared with previous studies using simple Lagrangian models, our results indicate higher influence from long-range transport. The estimated S/R relationships are believed to be more realistic since they include global influence as well as internal interactions among different parts of China.     

Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.     

Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry

The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World’s largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975–2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause–effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World’s region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state.     

Seasonal Impact of Blending Oxygenated Organics with Gasoline on Motor Vehicle Tailpipe and Evaporative Emissions

Emissions from a 1988 GM Corsica with adaptive learning closed loop control were measured with 4 fuels at 40, 75, and 90° F. Evaporative and exhaust emissions were examined from each fuel at each test temperature. Test fuels were unleaded summer grade gasoline; a blend of this gasoline containing 8.1 percent ethanol; a refiner’s blend stock; and the blend stock containing 16.2 percent methyl tertiary butyl ether. The ethanol and MTBE blends contained 3.0 percent oxygen by weight. Regulated emissions (total hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen), detailed aldehydes, detailed hydrocarbons, ethanol, MTBE, benzene, and 1, 3-butadiene were determined.

The highest levels of regulated emissions were produced at the lower temperature. Blended fuels produced almost twice the evaporative hydrocarbon emissions at high temperatures as did the base fuels. Benzene emissions varied with fuels and operating temperatures, while 1, 3-butadiene emissions decreased slightly with increasing temperatures. Formaldehyde emissions were not sensitive to fuel or temperature changes. Ethanol fuel blend total aldehyde emissions Increased by 40 percent due to increased acetaldehyde emissions.

Fuel blends had approximately a 3 percent economy decrease. The MTBE fuel blend appeared to offer the most reduction in total hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen for the fuels and temperatures tested.