An Evaluation of the Effects of Ozone Injury on Radial Growth of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa) in the Southern Sierra Nevada

Growth of ponderosa pines with visible symptoms of ozone injury was compared with that of asymptomatic trees in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. Time series analysis indicated that there was no significant reduction in annual radial increment of symptomatic trees during recent years compared to past growth and growth of asymptomatic trees. First order autocorrelation and climatic variables accounted for a large proportion of the variance in growth index, and winter precipitation was positively correlated with growth for all size and age classes. Although ozone concentrations are high enough to cause chlorosis and premature needle senescence in ponderosa pine, there has been no significant change in growth associated with ozone injury.     

Effects of Nighttime Chemistry upon the Transport of Ozone and Ozone Precursors

It has been recognized for several years that ozone in rural areas can exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for photochemical oxidant whirh was 0.08 ppm for one hour, not to be exceeded more than once per year. During the summer of 1973, the NAAQS was exceeded from 15 to 37% of the time at four rural monitoring sites in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia.¹ This is a greater violation rate than is found in many urban areas. Dimitriades and Altshuller² have enumerated four possible sources for this rural ozone: (a) transport from urban areas, (b) local photochemical generation from urban ozone precursors, (c) local photochemical generation from precursors of rural origin which may be man-made or natural, and (d) injection of stratospheric ozone into the rural area. This paper considers the chemistry pertinent to the first two of these possible sources of rural ozone, namely the long distance (overnight) transport of ozone and ozone precursors.     

California Statewide Assessment of the Effects of Ozone on Crop Productivity

Six properties appear desirable for any set of ozone attainment criteria: (1) sufficient stringency to protect public health, (2) simplicity and understandability, (3) sensitivity to real changes in air quality, (4) stability against meteorological fluctuations, (5) use of as much data as possible, and (6) equivalence between the stringency the criteria appear to mandate, and what they actually mandate. We consider how the federal attainment criteria might be improved with respect to Properties 4 through 6 while being equally strong on 1 through 3. Whether the federal standard meets Property 1 has been the subject of debate, but our analysis would apply also to a modified standard. We show that there are subtleties in how improvements might be made. In particular, basing the attainment status on a statistic with low variance may not lead to a more stable criterion, and although it is easy to find a criterion that makes it hard for a district with bad air to reach attainment, or a district with good air to get out of attainment, it is hard to find a criterion that does both. This suggests using different criteria for districts that are out of attainment from districts that are in attainment. Initially the burden of proof would be on the district to prove that its air is of attainment quality. However, once the district has achieved attainment the burden of proof would shift; the district would remain in attainment unless there was strong evidence to the contrary. An evaluation of a set of criteria based on this idea showed improvements over the federal criteria with respect to the last three desirable properties-stability, use of data, and equivalent stringency-with some sacrifice in simplicity and sensitivity.     

Comparison of Statistical Designs and Experimental Protocols Used to Evaluate Rain Acidity Effects on Field-Grown Soybeans

Published results of four field experiments testing effects of acidic precipitation in field-grown soybeans have led to contradictory conclusions. This paper examines the experimental procedures and protocols of the four experiments which could have contributed to differences in both the reported crop yields and the interpretations or conclusions drawn from the experiments.

The most important difference among the experiments is in their statistical designs. Two of the field layouts used only one plot per treatment, providing replication only for plants, rows or sectors within plots, but not among plots. By using real data from a highly replicated experiment it is shown that with such deficient statistical designs treatment effects cannot be separated from other microenvironmental variables peculiar to a specific plot location.

The other two experiments were highly replicated. They were designed to detect differences of approximately 10% among treatment means. Type 1 error, a, was predetermined, and replication was sufficient to keep type 2 error low. This design was made possible because a preliminary experiment was available to estimate the expected components of variance. Despite differences in the procedures and protocols among the four experiments, it is primarily the quality of the experimental design which has determined their validity and relative utility for crop loss assessment.     

Ozone Predictions in Atlanta,Georgia: Analysis of the 1999 Ozone Season

ABSTRACT

Ozone prediction has become an important activity in many U.S. ozone nonattainment areas. In this study, we describe the ozone prediction program in the Atlanta metropolitan area and analyze the performance of this program during the 1999 ozone-forecasting season. From May to September, a team of 10 air quality regulators, meteorologists, and atmospheric scientists made a daily prediction of the next-day maximum 8-hr average ozone concentration. The daily forecast was made aided by two linear regression models, a 3-dimensional air quality model, and the no-skill ozone persistence model. The team's performance is compared with the numerical models using several numerical indicators. Our analysis indicated that (1) the team correctly predicted next-day peak ozone concentrations 84% of the time, (2) the two linear regression models had a better performance than a 3-dimensional air quality model, (3) persistence was a strong predictor of ozone concentrations with a performance of 78%, and (4) about half of the team's wrong predictions could be prevented with improved meteorological predictions.     

Responses of Desert Annual Plants to Ozone and Water Stress in an in situ Experiment

Desert winter annual plants: Camissonia claviformis, C. hirtella, Caulanthus cooperi, Chaneactis carphoclinia, C. stevioides, Cryptantha angustifolia, C. pterocarya, Erodium cicutarium, Festuca octoflora, Lupinus concinnus, Oenothera californica, Plantago insularis, Platystemon californica, Salvia columbariae, Thelypodium lasiophyllum, and Thysanocarpus curvipes growing on irrigated and non-irrigated plots were exposed in situ to elevated levels of ozone dispensed from an open air exposure system. Plants were exposed intermittently to a gradient of ozone of concentrations ranging between 44 and 133 ppb (nL L^?1) for 35 h over a total of 216 h. Only three species were injured by ozone at the highest ozone concentrations. Leaf injury to C. claviformis—2 percent total foliar injury (TFI), C. hirtella—1 percent TFI, and Erodium cicutarium—2 percent TFI, developed at the highest ozone concentrations. Leaf injury to these species was similar on the irrigated and nonirrigated plots. Leaf water potential and stomatal conductance significantly decreased in C. claviformis, and C. hirtella due to water stress but not ozone. Similar trend for net photosynthesis was also determined. The highest water potential and stomatal conductance values as well as the largest differences in water potential between irrigated and non-irrigated plants were found in the morning.     

Effects of Constant versus Diurnally-Varying Light Intensity on Ozone Formation

Abstract

1-Bromo-propane (1-BP) is a replacement for high-end chlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) solvents. Its reaction rate constant with the OH radical is, on a weight basis, significantly less than that of ethane. However, the overall smog formation chemistry of 1-BP appears to be very unusual compared with typical volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and relatively complex because of the presence of bromine. In smog chamber experiments, 1-BP initially shows a faster ozone build-up than what would be expected from ethane, but the secondary products containing bromine tend to destroy ozone such that 1-BP can have a net overall negative reactivity. Alternative sets of reactions are offered to explain this unusual behavior. Follow-up studies are suggested to resolve the chemistry. Using one set of bromine-related reactions in a photo-chemical grid model shows that 1-BP would be less reactive toward peak ozone formation than ethane with a trend toward even lower ozone impacts in the future.     

The Effects of Habitat on Coral Bleaching Responses in Kenya

This study examines the bleaching responses of scleractinian corals at four sites in Kenya (Kanamai, Vipingo, Mombasa and Nyali) representing two distinct lagoon habitats (relatively shallow and relatively deep). Bleaching incidence was monitored for the whole coral community, while zooxanthellae densities and chlorophyll levels were monitored for target species (Pocillopora damicornis, Porites lutea, and Porites cylindrica) during a non-bleaching year (2006) and a year of mild-bleaching (2007). Differences in bleaching responses between habitats were observed, with shallower sites Kanamai and Vipingo exhibiting lower bleaching incidence than deeper sites Nyali and Mombasa. These shallower lagoons display more fluctuating thermal and light environments than the deeper sites, suggesting that corals in the shallower lagoons have acclimatized and/or adapted to the fluctuating environmental conditions they endure on a daily basis and have become more resistant to bleaching stress. In deeper sites that did exhibit higher bleaching (Mombasa and Nyali), it was found that coral recovery occurred more quickly in the protected area than in the non-protected area.     

A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

The potential adverse effects of environmental change on agriculture have motivated considerable public research on this topic. Acid deposition, gaseous air pollutants, stratosphere ozone depletion and "green house" phenomena, individually and in combination, have been or are being evaluated in terms of effects on agricultural productivity. Assessments of the economic consequences of such effects have also been performed as input into the regulatory process. As with any applied bioeconomic analysis, the credibility of these economic assessments is dependent on the quality of the natural science and other data on the pollutant In question.

The ability of economists to assess the agricultural effects of one important pollutant, tropospheric ozone, has been Improved by the recently completed National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The structure, protocols and initial plant science findings of this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency program have been presented in this journal (see, for example, Heck et al).^1-2 In a related article,³ we reported the economic consequences of those preliminary ozone crop yield effects. Summary plant science findings have now been published.⁴

We provide here a more complete analysis of estimated benefits from reductions in troposphere ozone based on the final results of the NCLAN plant science research. In doing so, we concentrate on improvements in the modeling and underlying data which are reflected In this current assessment. While uncertainties still remain, these improvements should result in more defensible estimates of the magnitude of ozone’s effects on U.S. agriculture.     

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

Modeling the Effects of VOC/NOx Emissions on Ozone Synthesis in the Cascadia Airshed of the Pacific Northwest

ABSTRACT

A modeling system consisting of MM5, Calmet, and Calgrid was used to investigate the sensitivity of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) reductions on ozone formation within the Cascadia airshed of the Pacific Northwest. An ozone episode that occurred on July 11-14, 1996, was evaluated. During this event, high ozone levels were recorded at monitors downwind of Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR, with one monitor exceeding the 1 hr/120 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard (at 148 ppb), and six monitors above the proposed 8 hr/80 ppb standard (at 82-130 ppb). For this particular case, significant emissions reductions, between 25 and 75%, would be required to decrease peak ozone concentrations to desired levels. Reductions in VOC emissions alone, or a combination of reduced VOC and NO_x emissions, were generally found to be most effective; reducing NO_x emissions alone resulted in increased ozone in the Seattle area. When only VOC emissions were curtailed, ozone reductions occurred in the immediate vicinity of densely populated areas, while NO_x reductions resulted in more widespread ozone reductions.     

Prediction of the Vertical Profile of Ozone Based on Ground-Level Ozone Observations and Cloud Cover

Abstract

A number of statistical techniques have been used to develop models to predict high-elevation ozone (O₃) concentrations for each discrete hour of day as a function of elevation based on ground-level O₃ observations. The analyses evaluated the effect of exclusion/inclusion of cloud cover as a variable. It was found that a simple model, using the current maximum ground-level O₃ concentration and no effect of cloud cover provided a reasonable prediction of the vertical profile of O₃, based on data analyzed from O₃ sites located in North Carolina and Tennessee. The simple model provided an approach that estimates the concentration of O₃ as a function of elevation (up to 1800 m) based on the statistical results with a ±13.5 ppb prediction error, an R² of 0.56, and an index of agreement, d ₁, of 0.66. The inclusion of cloud cover resulted in a slight improvement in the model over the simple regression model. The developed models, which consist of two matrices of 24 equations (one for each hour of day for clear to partly cloudy conditions and one for cloudy conditions), can be used to estimate the vertical O₃ profile based on the inputs of the current day’s 1-hr maximum ground-level O₃ concentration and the level of cloud cover.     

臭氧水中传质模型的研究

在传统鼓泡塔中对臭氧在水中的传质过程进行实验研究。利用实验改变进水流量、臭氧进气流量以及臭氧进气浓度等，得到臭氧传质系数、臭氧传质效率和臭氧消耗等有关参数。建立一个臭氧传质模型，可以预测不同操作条件下臭氧传质效率，从而优化控制臭氧化反应动力学。     

Ozone destruction by catalysis: Credibility of the threat

In an effort to assess the credibility of predictions concerning the O₃ layer and to pinpoint avenues for improving current stratospheric models, a review was undertaken of observational data believed to have a bearing on the validity of destruction of stratospheric O₃ by catalysis. Aside from short period responses of O₃ above 20 km to PCAs and changes in solar flux, no data were found to confirm catalytic destruction both qualitatively and quantitatively. Predicted changes following such perturbations as nuclear tests, solar cycle modulation of cosmic rays, PCA's and volcanic eruptions cannot be clearly identified in the total O₃ observations. Observed variations in total O₃ appear to have been controlled by processes not included in current stratospheric models. As a minimum, it is concluded that predictions regarding stratospheric O₃ do not, at present, warrant the confidence implied by CIAP.     

Modeling Analyses of the Effects of Changes in Nitrogen Oxides Emissions from the Electric Power Sector on Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the changes in ambient ozone concentrations simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for summer 2002 under three different nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission scenarios. Two emission scenarios represent best estimates of 2002 and 2004 emissions; they allow assessment of the impact of the NO_x emissions reductions imposed on the utility sector by the NO_x State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The third scenario represents a hypothetical rendering of what NO_x emissions would have been in 2002 if no emission controls had been imposed on the utility sector. Examination of the modeled median and 95th percentile daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations reveals that median ozone levels estimated for the 2004 emission scenario were less than those modeled for 2002 in the region most affected by the NO_x SIP Call. Comparison of the “no-control” with the “2002” scenario revealed that ozone concentrations would have been much higher in much of the eastern United States if the utility sector had not implemented NO_x emission controls; exceptions occurred in the immediate vicinity of major point sources where increased NO titration tends to lower ozone levels.     

Ozone assessment in the southern part of the Alps

In this paper ozone measurements carried out at six alpine and prealpine sites, located in the Italian region of Central Alps are shown. The stations are placed at altitudes between 800 and 1900 m a.s.l., far away from local sources of pollution. Ozone concentrations appear to be quite uniform, with summer mean values varying from 40 to 47 ppb and winter ones from 19 to 35 ppb. The number of hours exceeding the 75 and 100 ppb WHO thresholds and the AOT40 (Average Over Threshold 40 ppb of ozone) are evaluated for the growing season. The temporal variability of weekly ozone cycle at alpine stations provides useful informations to assess an emission control strategy.     

Ozone Levels in the Vicinity of 33 Cities

Hourly concentrations of ozone were measured by the chemiluminescence method during the summer of 1971 in the vicinity of 33 cities. A listing was made of the percent of time the National Air Quality Standard for photochemical oxidants was violated. At 4 selected cities the daytime and nighttime average concentrations were related to wind directions showing the direction to source areas. Another set of tables and graphs was used to show the source directions for high concentrations (equal to or above 120 µg/m³) and disregarding the times of more usual or background concentrations. Numerous occasions of high ozone concentrations occurred when wind directions were apparently from areas with low concentrations of the known precursors. Because of this, other sources of ozone were considered such as thunderstorms and the transport of ozone for long distances. Examples of ozone concentrations during thunderstorms or related to long distance transport are cited.     

Ozone predictions in Atlanta, Georgia: analysis of the 1999 ozone season

Ozone prediction has become an important activity in many U.S. ozone nonattainment areas. In this study, we describe the ozone prediction program in the Atlanta metropolitan area and analyze the performance of this program during the 1999 ozone-forecasting season. From May to September, a team of 10 air quality regulators, meteorologists, and atmospheric scientists made a daily prediction of the next-day maximum 8-hr average ozone concentration. The daily forecast was made aided by two linear regression models, a 3-dimensional air quality model, and the no-skill ozone persistence model. The team's performance is compared with the numerical models using several numerical indicators. Our analysis indicated that (1) the team correctly predicted next-day peak ozone concentrations 84% of the time, (2) the two linear regression models had a better performance than a 3-dimensional air quality model, (3) persistence was a strong predictor of ozone concentrations with a performance of 78%, and (4) about half of the team's wrong predictions could be prevented with improved meteorological predictions.