A model for the maximum credible hourly impact on any ground receptor from point sources with thermal plume rise

A pollutant dispersion model is developed, allowing fast evaluation of the maximum credible 1-h average concentration on any given ground-level receptor, along with the corresponding critical meteorological conditions (wind speed and stability class) for stacks with buoyant plumes in urban or rural areas. Site-specific meteorological data are not required, as the computed concentrations are maximized against all credible combinations of wind speed, stability class, and mixing height. The analysis is based on the dispersion relations of Pasquill-Gifford and Briggs for rural and urban settings, respectively, the buoyancy induced dispersion correlation of Pasquill, the wind profile exponent values suggested by Irwin, the buoyant plume rise relations of Briggs, as well as the Benkley and Schulman's model for the minimum mixing heights. The model is particularly suited for air pollution management studies, as it allows fast screening of the maximum impact on any selected receptor and evaluation of the ways to have this impact reduced. It is also suited for regulatory purposes, as it can be used to define the minimum stack size requirements for a given source as a function of the exit gas volume and temperature, the pollutant emission rates and their hourly concentration standards, as well as the source location relative to sensitive receptors.     

The Validity of Several Plume Rise Formulas

The ground level concentration of pollutants downwind of a tall chimney decreases as the effective height of the stack increases. The effective height of the stack is the actual height plus the rise of the plume center-line due to momentum and buoyancy of the effluent. Over twenty formulas to predict plume rise from stack and meteorological parameters have been proposed; none is uniformly accepted. In this paper, 711 plume rise observations were used to test the ability of fifteen of the published and commonly used formulas to predict plume rise. The plume rise data were obtained from single stacks whose heat emission rate varied over four orders of magnitude. None of the formulas tested was found to be significantly better than the others. Research was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission.     

Plume Rise Determination-A New Technique Without Equations

Information on plume rise is important in determining the resulting concentrations of a pollutant on the ground. Practical use of plume rise values may be made in connection with stack design, the use of urban air pollution models, and in evaluating the hazards to a population complex.

This paper presents a new equationless technique for estimating plume rise as well as a comparison of seventeen commonly used plume rise formulas. Data from 10 sets of experiments, involving 615 observations and 26 different stacks, were used to study the relation between plume rise and related meteorological and stack parameters.

An independent data set was used to test the derived methods for determining plume rise. These data were obtained by Bringfelt of Sweden and contained measurements from stacks smaller than that at the Argonne National Laboratory to those approaching the TVA stacks.

A significant improvement in the prediction of plume rise from meteorological and stack parameters resulted from the use of a new technique called the Tabulation Prediction Technique. This is a method whereby an estimate of the value of a dependent variable may be obtained from information on the independent variables. Combinations of the independent variables—wind speed, heat emission rate, momentum rate, and stability—are arranged in an ordered sequence. For each combination of independent variables, the cumulative percentile frequency distribution of the dependent variable based on past measurements is given along with other statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, and interquartile range, i.e., the difference in plume rise between the 75th and 25th percentile values. Thus, one may look up the combination of independent variables just as one looks up words in a dictionary to obtain the percentile frequency distribution of the dependent variable. The mean, for each combination of independent variables may be considered as the best estimate for the given conditions.     

Numerical and approximate solutions for plume rise

Numerical and approximate analytical solutions are compared for turbulent plume rise in a crosswind. The numerical solutions were calculated using the plume rise model of Hoult, Fay and Forney (1969, J. Air Pollut. Control Ass.19, 585–590), over a wide range of pertinent parameters. Some wind shear and elevated inversion effects are included. The numerical solutions are seen to agree with the approximate solutions over a fairly wide range of the parameters. For the conditions considered in the study, wind shear effects are seen to be quite small. A limited study was made of the penetration of elevated inversions by plumes. The results indicate the adequacy of a simple criterion proposed by Briggs (1969, AEC Critical Review Series, USAEC Division of Technical Information extension, Oak Ridge, Tennesse).     

Full-Scale Study of Plume Rise At Large Coal-Fired Electric Generating Stations

This paper reports on the plume rise research project conducted by TVA under sponsorship of the U. S. Public Health Service. Plume rise data were collected at six coal-fired, steam-electric generating stations within the TVA system over a 2-year period. Unit ratings ranged from 173 to 704 Mw with stack heights varying from 250 to 600 ft. An instrumented helicopter and special photographic equipment were used to obtain 1580 separate plume observations and significant related meteorological parameters during stable, neutral, and slightly unstable conditions. The 1580 observations were resolved and consolidated into 133 composite observation periods covering 30 to 120 min. Meteorological parameters and other compiled input data were entered into four principal equations for calculation of plume rise, and calculated plume rise values were compared with observed values. Most equations overestimated plume rise in low wind speed. For moderately high wind speeds, the Carson and Moses and the Concawe equations gave best fit.     

A Correlation of Field Observations of Plume Rise

Data from 137 sets of plume observations, comprising nearly 1 500 data points, are correlated with two simple formulae. These formulae, one for the buoyancy-dominated rise region and the other for the stratification-dominated levelled-off region of a plume, represent an approximate form of the entrainment theory of Hoult, et al. (1968)¹ for the case of uniform atmospheric stratification and zero wind shear. The observations, which are those of the Tennessee Valley Authority and of Bringfelt (1968),⁶ were made of plumes whose source strengths ranged from 0.4 to 111 Mw and which were emitted from stacks of heights between 21 and 183 m. The two formulae are found to correlate the data equally well over all values of the stack exit and meteorological parameters, provided only that the bulk mean velocity of the stack gases exceeds the mean wind speed by at least 20%. The ratio of observed to calculated plume rise is found to be distributed log normally about the mean value.

The median rise at large distances downstream was found to differ insignificantly from that given by the effective stack height formula recommended recently¹¹ for large buoyant plumes. Based upon the correlation, two formulae are recommended for computing median plume rise at all distances downstream of the stack. The formulae include an estimate of the expected uncertainty in the predicted rise.     

Stationary Source Surveillance for Large Air Quality Control Regions in Nonurban Areas

Increased energy processing activity in the north has resulted in a demand for measured data on plume dispersion that is relevant to this particular region. The north was, therefore, selected for study in a comprehensive government/Industry research program. The objective of these studies was to assess the behaviour of plumes in various geographic areas In Canada. The program utilizes airborne and automobile-mounted probes to determine SO₂ and temperature profiles within stock-emitted plumes as well as meteorological data on local atmospheric structure. The data are then analyzed numerically to obtain plume axis elevations and standard deviations of spread and these results are compared to accepted predictive methods. Good agreement with the analysis of Briggs was observed for predicting the location of the plume axis In neutral conditions; some deviations were noted in stable conditions. Values of the measured product ( σay-σ;z) were generally larger than those of Pasquill, particularly for those values close to the source. A difference between the measured values of (σ;y-σ;z) in fall and winter was observed in stable conditions.     

A three-dimensional plume rise model for dry and wet plumes

We present a plume rise model which can be applied to situations with arbitrary wind fields and source exit directions and to both dry and wet plumes. The model is an integral model which considers plume properties averaged over the plume cross section. It is validated by means of water tank, wind tunnel, and field experiments (stacks and cooling towers).     

Atmospheric fate and transport of dioxins: local impacts

We conducted model simulations of the atmospheric fate and transport of PCDD/F to assess the fraction of emitted PCDD/F that would deposit within 100 km from the source. We considered eight major categories of PCDD/F emission sources and six different locations, to cover a wide range of source characteristics, PCDD/F congener profiles and particle size distributions, meteorological conditions and terrain configurations. These results suggest that for sources that have tall stacks and/or high plume rise (e.g., copper smelters, cement kilns, sinter plants), only a small fraction of PCDD/F emissions is deposited locally (typically, less than 10% within 100 km). Other source categories such as municipal solid waste incinerators, medical waste incinerators and diesel trucks lead to a greater fraction of PCDD/F being deposited locally; nevertheless, the majority of their PCDD/F emissions tends to be transported beyond 100 km. Although local impacts may need to be addressed for these latter source categories, it appears that the long-range potential impacts of PCDD/F need to be addressed for all source categories. Sensitivity studies were conducted to investigate the effect of various key model inputs on simulation results. These studies suggest that an advanced atmospheric dispersion model should be used for cases where PCDD/F emissions may present some local concerns because the results are very sensitive to the treatment of dispersion. Also, it is essential to obtain accurate characterizations of the particle size distribution of particulate PCDD/F because the dry deposition flux is very sensitive to the particle size distribution.     

Validation of a Lagrangian model plume rise scheme using the Kincaid data set

Correct prediction of the initial rise of a plume due to momentum and buoyancy effects is an important factor in dispersion modelling. A new plume rise scheme, based upon conservation equations of mass, momentum and heat, for the Lagrangian model, NAME, is described. The conservation equations are consistent with the well-known analytical plume rise formulae for both momentum- and buoyancy-dominated plumes. The performance of the new scheme is assessed against data from the Kincaid field experiment. Results show that the new scheme adds value to the model and significantly outperforms the previous plume rise scheme. Using data from assessments of atmospheric dispersion models using the Kincaid data set, it is shown that NAME is comparable to other models over short ranges.     

Water flume study of the enhancement of buoyant rise in pairs of merging plumes

When multiple stacks are grouped or ganged together at a site, the effluent plumes are often observed to merge downwind, forming a single buoyant plume whose rate of rise is enhanced relative to the rise of the plumes individually. The magnitude of this rise enhancement depends on many factors, and the few available models for rise enhancement do not always agree with one another. In the present study the rise behaviour of pairs of merging, buoyant plumes was studied by physical modelling in a water flume at 1:500 scale. The experiments were conducted at several stack separation distances and various exit velocity ratios for stack pairs aligned with, or perpendicular to, the ambient flow. Limited experiments were also done with the stacks aligned at other angles to the flow. The stack releases were made buoyant by heating the source water, and the resulting plumes were measured with an array of sensitive temperature probes. From these measurements it was possible to determine the plume structure and rise rates. For small stack separations when the stacks are aligned with the ambient flow, the experimental results show that the enhanced rise is close to, and sometimes above, the maximum theoretical rise enhancement factor of 2^1/3. For the perpendicular orientation there is little or no rise enhancement. The rise enhancement for other stack orientations is somewhere between these two extremes. A plausible physical explanation for the observed behaviour is given, based on initial momentum shielding and line vortex dynamics in the merging plumes.     

Plume Dispersion in a Mountainous River Valley during Spring

The dispersion of hot plumes emitted from a smelter complex located In the Columbia River Valley, British Columbia, was evaluated under stable and neutral conditions during two mornings In spring. Spatial measurements of SO₂ and temperature within the plume were obtained by immersion probing using fast response helicopter and automobile mounted Instrumentation. In addition, meteorological measurements of vertical wind and temperature profiles at, and downwind from, the smelter were obtained from minisonde balloon releases. With weak down-valley winds, it was found that the plume axis elevations were generally lower during both stable and neutral conditions than would be predicted by Briggs plume-rise formulae. In contrast, plume dispersion, although confined in the horizontal by the steep valley walls during both stability regimes, was significantly enhanced by exceptionally good lateral mixing, particularly close to the source.     

Development of the ClearSky smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning in the Pacific Northwest

The post-harvest burning of agricultural fields is commonly used to dispose of crop residue and provide other desired services such as pest control. Despite careful regulation of burning, smoke plumes from field burning in the Pacific Northwest commonly degrade air quality, particularly for rural populations. In this paper, ClearSky, a numerical smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning that was developed to support smoke management in the Inland Pacific Northwest, is described. ClearSky began operation during the summer through fall burn season of 2002 and continues to the present. ClearSky utilizes Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5 (MM5v3) forecasts from the University of Washington, data on agricultural fields, a web-based user interface for defining burn scenarios, the Lagrangian CALPUFF dispersion model and web-served animations of plume forecasts. The ClearSky system employs a unique hybrid source configuration, which treats the flaming portion of a field as a buoyant line source and the smoldering portion of the field as a buoyant area source. Limited field observations show that this hybrid approach yields reasonable plume rise estimates using source parameters derived from recent field burning emission field studies. The performance of this modeling system was evaluated for 2003 by comparing forecast meteorology against meteorological observations, and comparing model-predicted hourly averaged PM_2.5 concentrations against observations. Examples from this evaluation illustrate that while the ClearSky system can accurately predict PM_2.5 surface concentrations due to field burning, the overall model performance depends strongly on meteorological forecast error. Statistical evaluation of the meteorological forecast at seven surface stations indicates a strong relationship between topographical complexity near the station and absolute wind direction error with wind direction errors increasing from approximately 20° for sites in open areas to 70° or more for sites in very complex terrain. The analysis also showed some days with good forecast meteorology with absolute mean error in wind direction less than 30° when ClearSky correctly predicted PM_2.5 surface concentrations at receptors affected by field burns. On several other days with similar levels of wind direction error the model did not predict apparent plume impacts. In most of these cases, there were no reported burns in the vicinity of the monitor and, thus, it appeared that other, non-reported burns were responsible for the apparent plume impact at the monitoring site. These cases do not provide information on the performance of the model, but rather indicate that further work is needed to identify all burns and to improve burn reports in an accurate and timely manner. There were also a number of days with wind direction errors exceeding 70° when the forecast system did not correctly predict plume behavior.     

A Simple Technique for Determining The Maximum Ground Level Concentration of An Elevated Gaseous Release

A screening technique has been developed to determine the maximum one-hour ground level concentration of a gaseous emission from a stack located In flat terrain. The method does not require the use of a computer and eliminates the usual trial and error calculations. An infinite mixing height is assumed. It involves a linear or quadratic solution of the gaussian plume diffusion as a function of the effective stack height and a linear approximation of the Briggs plume rise equation. The linear approximation of the former gives results that are within 5 % of the gaussian plume results for stability criteria A, B, and C. For stability criteria D, the difference can be as great as 80%. If a quadratic estimation Is used, the differences are less than 3% for stability criteria A, B, and C, and are within 18% for stability criteria D. A linear approximation is used for the Briggs plume rise equation. This gives results within 4% of the Briggs equation. Overall, this is a simple straightforward approximation which gives results which can be used to determine if more sophisticated procedures are necessary.     

Water tank measurements of buoyant plume rise and structure in neutral crossflows

In this paper, an experimental study of the rise and development of a single buoyant plume and a pair of in-line buoyant plumes is presented. The investigations were carried out at small scale in a water filled towing tank using both quantitative flow visualisation and local concentration measurements. The measured plume trajectories for a single plume were compared with the Briggs plume rise equation and predictions from a numerical integral model. Plume trajectories were studied for twin in-line plumes, with particular attention to changes in the plume trajectory, especially any additional rise that resulted from the interaction between the two plumes. Concentration field distributions in cross-sections through both single and interacting twin plumes were obtained from the local concentration measurement system. These showed how the interaction affected the plume structure, notably the double vortex system that occurs in a fully developed plume.     

An advanced integral model for cooling tower plume dispersion

An advanced integral model is developed for predicting cooling tower plume rise from single natural draft cooling towers. The theoretical formulation of the model is aimed at avoiding many of the pitfalls and unnecessary assumptions of existing models. The model is based on a careful integration of the three-dimensional partial differential equations of conservation across the plume cross-section; radial profiles of temperature, velocity, and total water are assumed to be Gaussian in shape. The model includes a treatment of plume thermodynamics and tower downwash effects. The model has been calibrated with a wide range of laboratory data. Verification of the model with single-tower field data from Chalk Point, Paradise, Lünen, Gardanne and Philippsburg reveals good results.     

Plume Rise Estimates for Electric Generating Stations

The Tennessee Valley Authority, under sponsorship of the Public Health Service, National Air Pollution Control Administration, initiated a comprehensive study entitled “Full-Scale Study of Plume Rise at Large Electric Generating Stations” in 1963. The variability of plant sizes, stack heights, and stack configurations accommodated full-scale assessment of plume rise over a wide range of meteorological and operational conditions.     

Development,Evaluation, and Application of a Primary Aerosol Model

ABSTRACT

The Segmented-Plume Primary Aerosol Model (SPPAM) has been developed over the past several years. The earlier model development goals were simply to generalize the widely used Industrial Source Complex Short-Term (ISCST) model to simulate plume transport and dispersion under light wind conditions and to handle a large number of roadway or line sources. The goals have been expanded to include development of improved algorithm for effective plume transport velocity, more accurate and efficient line and area source dispersion algorithms, and recently, a more realistic and computationally efficient algorithm for plume depletion due to particle dry deposition. A performance evaluation of the SPPAM has been carried out using the 1983 PNL dual tracer experimental data. The results show the model predictions to be in good agreement with observations in both plume advection-dispersion and particulate matter (PM) depletion by dry deposition. For PM_2.5 impact analysis, the SPPAM has been applied to the Rubidoux area of California. Emission sources included in the modeling analysis are: paved road dust, diesel vehicular exhaust, gasoline vehicular exhaust, and tire wear particles from a large number of roadways in Rubidoux and surrounding areas. For the selected modeling periods, the predicted primary PM_2.5 to primary PM10 concentration ratios for the Rubidoux sampling station are in the range of 0.39–0.46. The organic fractions of the primary PM_2.5 impacts are estimated to be at least 34–41%. Detailed modeling results indicate that the relatively high organic fractions are primarily due to the proximity of heavily traveled roadways north of the sampling station. The predictions are influenced by a number of factors; principal among them are the receptor locations relative to major roadways, the volume and composition of traffic on these roadways, and the prevailing meteorological conditions.     

Control of Asphaltic Concrete Plants in Los Angeles County

Characteristics of maximum short-term ground level concentrations from an elevated point source, namely, the effective plume height, the critical wind speed, the distance to the point of maximum concentration, and the maximum concentration, are derived from the gaussian plume model. Both phases of plume development—before and after it has reached its final height—are considered. The plume rise treatment includes both thermal buoyancy and momentum effects. Certain limitations on critical wind speed are discussed. The dispersion model whose basis is established in this paper should be especially useful in applications where on site meteorological data are unavailable.     

A comparison of model performance between AERMOD and AUSTAL2000

In this study the performance of the American Meteorological Society and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD), a Gaussian plume model, is compared in five test cases with the German Dispersion Model according to the Technical Instructions on Air Quality Control (Ausbreitungsmodell gem?beta der Technischen Anleitung zur Reinhaltung der Luft) (AUSTAL2000), a Lagrangian model. The test cases include different source types, rural and urban conditions, flat and complex terrain. The predicted concentrations are analyzed and compared with field data. For evaluation, quantile-quantile plots were used. Further, a performance measure is applied that refers to the upper end of concentration levels because this is the concentration range of utmost importance and interest for regulatory purposes. AERMOD generally predicted concentrations closer to the field observations. AERMOD and AUSTAL2000 performed considerably better when they included the emitting power plant building, indicating that the downwash effect near a source is an important factor. Although AERMOD handled mountainous terrain well, AUSTAL2000 significantly underestimated the concentrations under these conditions. In the urban test case AUSTAL2000 did not perform satisfactorily. This may be because AUSTAL2000, in contrast to AERMOD, does not use any algorithm for nightly turbulence as caused by the urban heat island effect. Both models performed acceptable for a nonbuoyant volume source. AUSTAL2000 had difficulties in stable conditions, resulting in severe underpredictions. This analysis indicates that AERMOD is the stronger model compared with AUSTAL2000 in cases with complex and urban terrain. The reasons for that seem to be AUSTAL2000's simplification of the meteorological input parameters and imprecision because of rounding errors.