International equity in climate change policy

Equity discussions in climate change policy focus on mitigation. Climate change impacts, adaptation and decision making are also important. General equity principles can be related to specific proposals for equitable sharing of mitigation but no objective preference for any principle exists. Most promising are mixed approaches, that combine various equity principles in a process oriented setting. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial scale-dependent policy planning for land management in southern Europe

This study outlines and original tool for rural policy planning in southern Europe. This new tool is a process-based, scale-dependent, rural policy-making approach, which is designed to address increasing land degradation problems in southern Europe. Seven important processes are identified (land abandonment, devegetation, intensification in agriculture, global climate change, accelerated soil erosion, increasing water demands, urbanisation) and plotted on a space-time diagram, which clearly shows the spatial and temporal scales for which these processes are significant for landscape change in southern Europe. Conclusions are derived concerning, in particular, sustainable (optimal) rural policy-making for southern Europe's problematic land management. An optimal spatial-temporal scale for land management in southern Europe may range spatially from the farm (0.5 km²) to sub-provincial level (450 km²) and temporally from 7 to 30 years. The study delineates methods and results derivable from such a new policy-planning approach and suggests the usefulness of combining this approach with ecological land classification at the landscape level.     

Economic models for climate policy analysis: A critical discussion

Climate policy analysis has come to rely heavily on large‐scale numerical simulation models of increasing complexity, posing a challenge to policy‐makers and other non‐specialists who must interpret and apply the models. This paper provides a “user's guide” to economic models used in climate analysis. We review basic features, underlying design issues, and basic research questions bearing on the models' foundations. We also provide an overview of five such global or world models currently in use.     

Wavelet analysis of some rivers in SE Europe and selected climate indices

The influence of some climatic oscillations and sunspot number on river flows in Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova is verified by using standard wavelet analyses. The selected climate oscillations are Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Oscillation (EAWRO), NINO3.4, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North America Oscillation (PNAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Polar/Eurasia Oscillation (PEO), Scandinavian Oscillation (ScandO), Southern Oscillation (SO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Forty-five hydrological stations from an area of 45,000 km² were used in order to discover the spatial evolution of the periodicities found in rivers. The wavelet analysis is novel for the rivers in the study area. There is an important difference between the periodicities found in mountain and plateau areas and those found in the plain area. There is a general downstream increase in the confidence level of the identified periods, even if the atmospheric precipitation has more relevant periodicities in the mountain area. The periodicities can be grouped into two compact groups: 1–16.5 and 27.8–55.6 years. The correlation matrix of the global wavelet spectrum (GWS) values indicates that NAO, EAWRO, PDO, and the sunspot number are the main factors that generate the periodicities in rivers. It is the first time when the influence of PDO on local rivers is proven. All river periodicities smaller than 16 years have a confidence level of 0.95 or above, as proven by the GWS analysis of the daily discharge data, and are caused by multiple external factors.     

Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy, environmental, and climate policy

This paper addresses the objective of including Induced Technological Change (ITC) in research and policy models of energy, environment, and climate change. Theoretical foundations, fundamentals, and current methodologies for ITC models are reviewed. In addition, limitations and possible extensions to ITC models are explored. Current approaches to energy-environmental modeling that neglect technological characteristics such as heterogeneity, uncertainty, and path-dependence are likely to underestimate both the impact and the lags in the effectiveness of policy options.     

Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value‐laden assumptions?

One of the principal tools used in the integrated assessment (IA) of environmental science, technology and policy problems is integrated assessment models (IAMs). These models are often comprised of many sub‐models adopted from a wide range of disciplines. A multi‐disciplinary tool kit is presented, from which three decades of IA of global climatic change issues have tapped. A distinction between multi‐ and inter‐disciplinarity is suggested, hinging on the synergistic value added for the latter. Then, a hierarchy of five generations of IAMs are proposed, roughly paralleling the development of IAMs as they incorporated more components of the coupled physical, biological and social scientific disciplines needed to address a “real world” problem like climatic change impacts and policy responses. The need for validation protocols and exploration of predictability limits is also emphasized. The critical importance of making value‐laden assumptions highly transparent in both natural and social scientific components of IAMs is stressed, and it is suggested that incorporating decision‐makers and other citizens into the early design of IAMs can help with this process. The latter could also help IA modelers to offer a large range of value‐containing options via menu driven designs. Examples of specific topics which are often not well understood by potential users of IAMs are briefly surveyed, and it is argued that if the assumptions and values embedded in such topics are not made explicit to users, then IAMs, rather than helping to provide us with refined insights, could well hide value‐laden assumptions or conditions. In particular, issues of induced technological change, timing of carbon abatement, transients, surprises, adaptation, subjective probability assessment and the use of contemporary spatial variations as a substitute for time evolving changes (what I label “ergodic economics”) are given as examples of problematic issues that IA modelers need to explicitly address and make transparent if IAMs are to enlighten more than they conceal. A checklist of six practices which might help to increase transparency of IAMs is offered in the conclusions. Incorporation of decision‐makers into all stages of development and use of IAMs is re‐emphasized as one safeguard against misunderstanding or misrepresentation of IAM results by lay audiences.     

A decision-support system for sustainable urban metabolism in Europe

Urban metabolism components define the energy and material exchanges within a city and, therefore, can provide valuable information on the environmental quality of urban areas. Assessing the potential impact of urban planning alternatives on urban metabolism components (such as energy, water, carbon and pollutants fluxes) can provide a quantitative estimation of their sustainability performance. Urban metabolism impact assessment can, therefore, contribute to the identification of sustainable urban structures with regards, for example, to building types, materials and layout, as well as to location and capacity of transportation and infrastructural developments. In this way, it enables the formulation of planning and policy recommendations to promote efficient use of resources and enhance environmental quality in urban areas.The European FP7 project BRIDGE (sustainaBle uRban plannIng Decision support accountinG for urban mEtabolism) has developed a decision-support system (DSS) that systematically integrates urban metabolism components into impact assessment processes with the aim of accurately quantifying the potential effects of proposed planning interventions. The DSS enables integration of multiple spatial and non-spatial datasets (e.g. physical flows of energy and material with variables of social and economic change) in a systematic manner to obtain spatially defined assessment results and to thus inform planners and decision-makers. This multi-criteria approach also enables incorporation of stakeholders' perceptions in order to prioritise decisive assessment criteria. This paper describes the methodological framework used to develop the DSS and critically examines the results of its practical application in five European cities.     

Deposition Monitoring in Europe

A monitoring station for atmospheric deposition was designed and constructed. Three such stations were applied in a pilot project for a year on three sites (Speulder forest in The Netherlands, Auchencorth in Scotland and Melpitz in Germany) in different regions in Europe to estimate local inputs and to validate deposition models which are currently used or developed to estimate ecosystem specific deposition in Europe. Fluxes at Auchencorth Moss are lowest for all components, except for those much influenced by the sea as a source. As Melpitz is located far away from seas, these components are lowest at this site. Wet deposition is the dominant source of input at Auchencorth, whereas at Speulder forest, through its roughness and pollution climate, dry deposition is dominant. At this site dry deposition velocities are highest. Melpitz is a polluted site. Particularly sulphur deposition is high. It is recommended to equip several locations in Europe with intensive deposition monitoring methods. Such a network will be an extension of existing monitoring programmes on air pollution, such as that run by Eurepean Monitoring and Evaluation Programme for the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe (EMEP). The intensive monitoring locations should be selected based on pollution climates and type of vegetation, common in Europe.     

A review of EIAs on trade policy in China: Exploring the way for economic policy EIAs

During the discussion on the “Environmental Protection Law Amendment (draft)” in 2011, it was decided to drop the proposed clauses related to environmental impact assessments (EIAs) on policy, which means that there remained no provisions for policy EIAs, and China's strategic environmental assessment system stayed limited to the planning level. However, considering that economic policy making is causing significant direct and indirect environmental problems and that almost every aspect of governmental policy has an economic aspect, EIAs on economic policies are of the utmost urgency. The purpose of this study is to review the EIA work that has been carried out on trade policy in China through four case studies, and illustrate how trade policy EIAs can be helpful in achieving better environmental outcomes in the area of trade. Through the trade policy EIA case studies we try to argue for the feasibility of conducting EIAs on economic policies in China. We also discuss the implications of the case studies from the point of view of how to proceed with EIAs on economic policy and how to promote their practice.     

Requirements for developing a regional monitoring capacity for aerosols in Europe within EMEP

The European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) has been established to provide information to Parties to the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution on deposition and concentration of air pollutants, as well as on the quantity and significance of long-range transmission of pollutants and transboundary fluxes. To achieve its objectives with the required scientific credibility and technical underpinning, a close integration of the programme's main elements is performed. These elements are emission inventories, chemical transport modelling, and the monitoring of atmospheric chemistry and deposition fluxes, which further are integrated towards abatement policy development. A critical element is the air pollution monitoring that is performed across Europe with a focus not only on health effect aspects and compliance monitoring, but also on process studies and source receptor relationships. Without a strong observational basis a predictive modelling capacity cannot be developed and validated. Thus the modelling success strongly depends on the quality and quantity of available observations. Particulate matter (PM) is a relatively recent addition to the EMEP monitoring programme, and the network for PM mass observations is still evolving. This article presents the current status of EMEP aerosol observations, followed by a critical evaluation in view of EMEP's main objectives and its model development requirements. Specific recommendations are given for improving the PM monitoring programme within EMEP.     

Modelling and mapping of copper runoff for Europe

A predictive runoff rate model for copper has been refined and used to generate copper runoff maps for Europe. The new model is based on laboratory and field runoff data and expresses the runoff rate R (g m(-2) yr(-1)) through two contributions, both with a physical meaning: R = (0.37SO(0.5)(2) = 0.96 rain10(-0.62 pH) (cos(theta)/cos(45 degree)). Input parameters are the SO(2) concentration (microg m(-3)), pH, amount of rain (mm yr(-1)), and surface angle of inclination (theta). The first contribution originates from dry periods between rain events (the first-flush effect) and the second from the rain events. The dry term has been refined in comparison to the original model by assuming a mass balance between measured corrosion mass loss, calculated copper retention in the patina and predicted copper runoff. The refined model predicts 76% of all reported runoff rates, worldwide, within 35% from their measured value. This includes sites with low SO(2) concentration, where the original model erroneously predicted higher runoff rates than corrosion rates. Based on environmental data from the EMEP programme for the years 1980-2000, the new model has been used to derive runoff rate maps for Europe with 50 x 50 km grid resolution. The runoff mapping shows a substantial reduction in runoff rate over the investigated time period, and with copper runoff rates now generally less than 2 g m(-2) yr(-1).     

Ecological indicator organisms for environmental protection policy

Environmental protection policy strives to maintain an environment favourable to human health, agriculture, and the preservation of natural heritage. Infringements upon the environment have been either by sudden deliberate action of man (construction, land reclamation, dams, etc.) or by gradual, insipid stress of chemical and physical agents (chemical substances, heat, noise, radiation, etc.). Indeliberate unwanted stress upon the environment may be measured either by observing biological effects on indicator organisms or by chemically analyzing contaminants in these organisms. In this respect the author pleads for modest, cost-efficient monitoring programmes of limited duration and providing policy related information in a direct way. Biological effect monitoring programmes show limited prospects at this moment.     

Climate-induced water availability changes in Europe

Water availability changes in Europe are discussed in this paper, as seen in a perspective of climatic change. Such changes will be assessed in terms of the shifts in the watering of terrestrial ecosystems, as well as the shifts in the availability in terrestrial freshwater systems. A changing climate will have a major impact on the availability of water. Both wetter and drier conditions will have major implications for societal activities and land use patterns (e.g., agriculture, urban activities, waste water disposal, etc.).Some future research and monitoring activities are proposed by the authors to assess linkages in hydrological shifts to changes in land use patterns.