The expected number of road traffic casualties using stratified data

Road safety policy plans often require robust calculation of the expected number of road casualties in a certain target year. The relevance of such estimations should be measured by their power to influence and support safety policy makers. Thus, techniques to evaluate the safety developments and the estimating methods must be sound, robust, and preferably accepted by both policy makers and the scientific community. In this paper, we concentrate on choosing an appropriate model used for the calculation, rather than on statistical techniques. We calculate a casualty rate from casualty data and mobility (distance travelled) data, which is extrapolated and subsequently multiplied by an expected future distance travelled. After correction for separately assessed effects of additional safety measures, the number of casualties is estimated. We investigate a method where this is done after both mobility data and casualty data are stratified into properly chosen subsets. Projecting these different trends generally leads to a result that differs from the projection of the aggregated data. Also, stratification enables incorporation in the estimation of explaining factors or additional measures related to a specific subset of the casualties. The principles of stratified projections are illustrated by three Dutch projections which were carried out between 2006 and 2008. Also, some preliminary results of further research on stratification are given. The results imply that the rates of change in casualty rate for different traffic modes or driver age, are not necessarily equal. We propose that these specific decreasing trends are a consequence of external influencing factors.     

大数据在环境执法与监测中的应用创新

当前背景下,大数据的有效应用以及普及,其很大程度上推动了各个领域创新发展的进程,尤其是在一些企业中,其通过对大数据的应用,实现了对数据的分析以及统计,有效优化了生产工艺,也满足了现阶段节能降耗的要求。因此,在进行环境执法与监测工作阶段,为了可以更好地提升监测水平,也应该积极的对大数据技术进行应用,合理创新。     

Minimum-loss design of x-bar charts for correlated data

When the x-bar chart is used to monitor a production process, three parameters should be determined: the sample size, the sampling interval between successive samples, and the control limits for the chart. In 1956, Duncan presented a cost model to determine the three parameters, which is called the economic design of x-bar charts. In 1995, Alexander et al. combined Duncan’s cost model with the Taguchi’s quality loss function to present a loss model for determining the three parameters. When designing an x-bar chart, one usually assumes that the measurements within a sample are independent; however, this assumption may not be true for some processes. In this paper, we develop the minimum-loss design of x-bar charts for correlated measurements within a sample by incorporating the Taguchi’s quality loss function. An example of orange juice production process is presented to illustrate the solution procedure. From the results of sensitivity analysis, we find that as the measurements in the sample are positively correlated, highly correlated data result in a smaller sample size and a frequent sampling interval; however, as the measurements in the sample are negatively correlated, highly correlated data yield a smaller sample size and a narrower control limits.     

探究环境监测数据在环境执法中的应用

伴随经济发展的迅速,人们对环境越来越重视,国家也制定了相应的环境执法与保护措施,保障环境质量。在环境执法的过程中,必须严格依照环境监测的数据,从而保障信息的准确性,使环境执法策略的开展能够顺应时代发展,符合目前发展的现状。因此,环境执法中环境监测数据占据重要的位置。基于此,本文分析了环境执法中环境监测数据的应用,笔者根据自身经验提出相应的建议。     

An improved model for heavy gas dispersion using time-varying wind data: Mathematical basis,physical assumptions,and case studies

This study developed an improved model for the dispersion of released toxic gases, SLABi, based on the widely used model SLAB. Two major improvements enhanced the model's ability to represent observations. First, SLAB was upgraded to account for temporal variation in wind vectors. Thus, real-time changes in meteorological conditions can be considered in dispersion forecasting. Second, a source term module was developed and embedded in SLABi to standardize the procedure of emission calculation. Both the standard SLAB model and the SLABi model were applied to a case study to evaluate the impact of time-varying winds on the dispersion of released gases. The results showed that meteorology has a significant influence on the dispersion of released gases. The SLABi model can provide decision makers with timely and accurate guidance, so as to minimize hazards to people and the environment.     

Climate as a group level phenomenon: Theoretical assumptions and methodological considerations

Climate is a group‐level phenomenon that should be measured and studied at the group level. The group level has theoretical and methodological advantages over the individual level. In this paper, I theoretically review the assumptions in measuring climate at the individual and group levels and demonstrate that the group‐level assumptions are more adequate for climate research because of their influences in exposure to events, interpretation of events, and preservation of perceptions. Methodologically, I discuss advantages in group‐level climate measurement accuracy that are based on multiple evaluators of climate and I suggest group aggregation is an organizational form of “wisdom of the crowds.” Finally, I point to three topics that remain to be investigated to understand climate at the group level better. The first is use of variability measures to compensate for information that is lost in aggregation. The second is challenging the assumption that formal organizational structure defines the group boundaries. I suggest that other levels of analysis apply to group‐level climate measurement and demonstrate the use of informal, more natural groups as an additional level. Third, I point to recently developed statistical procedures that can aid the study of climate perception emergence over time.     

起重伤亡事故分析及司机行为特性研究

介绍了近年来起重伤亡事故概况，并通过对某企业历年来起重伤亡事故的分析，探讨了起重伤亡事故的原因，以及事故发生的一般规律，并对起重司机的行为特性作了研究，为起重事故预防提供了科学依据。     

Effectiveness of primary enforcement safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement of safety belt laws: a summary of the Guide to Community Preventive Services systematic reviews

BACKGROUND: The use of safety belts is the single most effective means of reducing fatal and nonfatal injuries in motor-vehicle crashes. This paper summarizes the systematic reviews of two interventions to increase safety belt use: primary enforcement safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement of safety belt laws. The reviews were previously published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. METHODS: We conducted the systematic reviews using the methodology developed for the Guide to Community Preventive Services. RESULTS: These reviews provide strong evidence that primary laws are more effective than secondary laws in increasing safety belt use and decreasing fatalities and that enhanced enforcement is effective in increasing safety belt use. Increases in belt use are generally highest in states with low baseline rates of belt use. DISCUSSION: Primary safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement programs tend to result in greater increases in usage rates for target groups with lower baseline rates. Concerns regarding public opposition to these interventions may impede their implementation in some jurisdictions. However, surveys indicate that a substantial majority of the public supports implementation of both primary laws and enhanced enforcement programs. CONCLUSION: Based on the strong evidence for effectiveness of primary safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement programs, the Task Force on Community Preventive Services recommended that all states enact primary safety belt laws and that communities implement enhanced enforcement programs.     

矿山救援队自身伤亡事故新特点及防治对策

为有效防止矿山救援队自身伤亡事故,通过统计1953-2013年期间的81例矿山救援队自身伤亡事故,研究其新特点与防治对策。结果表明:矿井火灾和爆炸事故救援始终是诱发救援队自身伤亡事故可能性最大的救灾作业类型,近年来这一特点更为明显,且火灾事故救援诱发瓦斯爆炸也成为导致自身伤亡的重要特征。因此,强化救援小队管理,改善救援技术与装备,重视预防性安全检查,提升应急决策与指挥的合理性,保障应急处置的安全并重点提高火灾与爆炸事故应急处置能力,是预防矿山救援自身伤亡事故的必要手段。     

Graduated driver licensing restrictions: awareness, compliance, and enforcement in North Carolina

PROBLEM: This study examined the extent to which critical restrictions in North Carolina's graduated driver licensing (GDL) system are known, adhered to, and enforced. METHOD: Teenagers and their parents were recruited as they applied for either an intermediate or full license at 1 of 23 licensing offices. Telephone interviews were conducted with 900 teenagers and their parents. RESULTS: Awareness of North Carolina's night and passenger restrictions was very high among both parents and teenagers. Ten percent of teenagers reported violating the night restriction without their parents' knowledge, and 15% had done so with their parents' approval. Only 4% of parents reported allowing their teenagers to drive with more than one teenage passenger, but 19% of teenagers reported that they were allowed to do this. Violations of the passenger restriction without parental knowledge were more common than violations of the night restriction (22% vs. 10%, respectively). Among teenagers who violated restrictions without their parents' knowledge, most reported doing so only once or a few times. Teenagers expressed little concern about detection, although a majority reported driving more carefully to avoid police notice. Neither parents nor teenagers knew much about police enforcement of GDL restrictions. To obtain a sense of the views of law enforcement officers, informal interviews were conducted with 20 officers from five diverse communities and the state highway patrol. These officers were highly supportive of GDL but unfamiliar with many of the specific provisions. Moreover, enforcement of GDL restrictions did not appear to be a high priority. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: There is a need to increase the belief among teens (and parents) that police are enforcing GDL restrictions in their community; law enforcement participation in well-publicized traffic safety enforcement efforts would likely produce this result.     

Evaluation of the Reading, PA nighttime safety belt enforcement campaign: September 2004

PROBLEM: Safety belt use rates among front seat occupants of passenger vehicles are substantially lower at night than during the day despite the fact that night driving is more dangerous. METHOD: Recent advances in night vision equipment now make it possible to enforce belt use laws in darkness. Reading, Pennsylvania conducted a night belt use publicity and enforcement campaign during September 2004 using night vision equipment. RESULTS: Front seat occupant belt use at night increased significantly from 50% prior to the campaign to 56% just after the campaign. Daylight belt use also increased though to a lesser extent (56% to 59%). Survey data indicated that motorists had heard about the campaign in newspapers and on television. Belt use increases were not seen during the same time period in a comparison community.     

Road characteristics and driver fatigue: a simulator study

Two experiments examined the influence of road characteristics on driver fatigue in a prolonged simulator drive. In experiment one, ten military truck drivers drove a mixed route, with straight, winding, and straight highway segments. In experiment two, 16 additional drivers drove either a straight, a winding, or a mixed route. Fatigue symptoms were assessed using performance, subjective, and psychophysiological measures (HRV). We hypothesized that drivers adopt different fatigue-coping strategies relative to the demands of the drive. Thus, on straight roads drivers are more likely to loosen their driving demands by either increasing their driving speed and/or not maintaining the lane position, as the road is tolerant to both strategies, whereas on winding roads, drivers are more likely to increase their speed but not their lane positioning. Our results confirm that decremental changes in driving performance varied among road types. In the straight road components, we found decrements in the quality of lane maintaining (experiment one) and steering quality (experiments one and two) and longitudinal speed (experiment two). In the winding road, we found that drivers increased their driving speed over time (experiments one and two).     

Drivers' opinions of enforcement and incentive strategies to promote safety belt use

During a nationwide campaign to promote safety belt use among military personnel, a field study was conducted at 12 military bases in the Netherlands. Enforcement and incentive programs were varied among military bases. A written survey was administered to personnel of these bases. The survey contained items concerning reported belt use, motivation to use a safety belt, attitudes toward legislation, public information, enforcement and incentive strategies, and awareness of the campaign. The results showed that enforcement was clearly a better accepted countermeasure than rewarding drivers for the use of safety belts. Respondents from bases exposed to the incentive treatment tend to have relatively more positive opinions of incentives than those exposed to the enforcement treatment. Two independent dimensions were present in the response patterns: one representing opinions of enforcement and the other of incentives/rewards.     

内蒙古雷击人员伤亡特征及其致灾因素的熵权分析

为揭示内蒙古雷电灾害分布规律和成灾原因,基于内蒙古2009—2018年雷电灾害资料和2013—2018年地闪定位系统资料,运用数理统计、熵权法分析内蒙古地区雷击人员伤亡特征及其致灾因素的影响权重。结果表明:内蒙古近10 a平均每年发生雷击伤亡事故6.20起,全区每年每百万人中约有0.36个人因雷击伤亡;乌兰察布市和锡林郭勒盟每年每百万人的雷击伤亡人数最多,呼和浩特市每1 000 km2人员雷击伤亡率最高;每年雷击伤亡事故的86.58%集中在6—8月份;1 d中雷击死亡主要集中在下午13∶00—18∶00时段,占83.33%;雷击伤亡事故主要发生在农村牧区;雷击伤亡的年龄分布主要集中在40~69岁;雷击伤亡中男性所占比例高达70.73%;全区大约每7万个地闪中会有1次导致雷击伤亡事件,雷击伤亡与地闪频次在时间上有较好的相关性,雷电灾害致灾因子熵权显示高程、地闪强度较地闪密度和地形起伏度更易造成雷击人员伤亡。     

Road safety: A perspective and a new strategy

The theoretical understanding of road safety has improved in eight respects: recognizing that there can be no cure, abandoning the language of cause and blame, understanding that we need to go beyond crashes to address their consequences, admitting the importance of exposure, taking into account statistical pitfalls and trends, rejecting arguments based on what stands to reason, attempting project evaluation, and, finally, admitting that cost, not carnage, is the issue. A program is proposed with six components: reorganization of road safety under an independent public health agency, planning for the long range, disengagement of road safety from public concern and public relations, commitment to full truthful disclosure to the public and political leaders, reorganization of professional education and public information, and formulation of a coherent modern research program.     

Cross-sectional study of road accidents and related law enforcement efficiency for 10 countries: A gap coherence analysis

Objective: Road crashes are considered as the eighth leading causes of death. There is a wide disparity in crash severity and law enforcement efficiency among low-, medium-, and high-income countries. It would be helpful to review the crash severity trends in these countries, identify the vulnerable road users, and understand the law enforcement effectiveness in devising efficient road safety improvement strategies.

Method: The crash severity, fatality rate among various age groups, and law enforcement strategies of 10 countries representing low-income (i.e., India and Morocco), medium-income (i.e. Argentina, South Korea, and Greece), and high-income (i.e., Australia, Canada, France, the UK, and the United States) are studied and compared for a period of 5 years (i.e., 2008 to 2012). The critical parameters affecting road safety are identified and correlated with education, culture, and basic compliance with traffic safety laws. In the process, possible road safety improvement strategies are identified for low-income countries.

Results: The number of registered vehicles shows an increasing trend for low-income countries as do the crash rate and crash severity. Compliance related to seat belt and helmet laws is high in high-income countries. In addition, recent seat belt– and helmet-related safety programs in middle-income countries helped to curb fatalities. Noncompliance with safety laws in low-income countries is attributed to education, culture, and inefficient law enforcement.

Conclusion: Efficient law enforcement and effective safety education taking into account cultural diversity are the key aspects to reduce traffic-related injuries and fatalities in low-income countries like India.     

The effect of earned and paid media strategies in high visibility enforcement campaigns

The primary objective of this paper is to describe the impact of national seat belt enforcement mobilizations in terms of changes in public awareness, perceptions, and opinions as they relate to Operation ABC (Always Buckle Up). In order to monitor changes in public awareness and perceptions, a number of national telephone surveys were conducted. Survey results indicated that the following characteristics were associated with lower self-reported seat belt use rates: (a) males; (b) 18-34 age group; (c) persons with lower income; (d) persons with lower education; (e) persons living in rural areas; (f) residents of the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Lakes; (g) residents of states with secondary enforcement laws; and (h) persons less likely to read a newspaper and more likely to listen to the radio. Telephone surveys also suggested that the following groups are more likely to fail to properly secure a child under 12: (a) persons who say they have problems securing a child in seat belt; (b) farm belt residents; (c) Hispanic and Latinos; (d) persons who indicate that they always wear a seat belt but indicate they have not in the past month; (e) persons with older vehicles; (f) lower income respondents; (g) residents of the Deep South; (h) internet non-users; and (i) urban men. These findings provide support for some basic guidelines and suggestions for conducting seat belt enforcement activities.     

城市道路中央隔离设施的交通安全与景观研究

笔者从道路交通事故和景观方面 ,研究道路中央隔离设施的功能与特征。首先 ,利用对某城市道路中央有无隔离带情况下记录的交通事故数据 ,进行交通安全统计比较分析 ;其次 ,分别利用层次分析法和语言分级评价法 ,对城市道路中央双黄线、中央护栏隔离和中央绿化隔离 3种情况的景观进行分析 ;最后 ,通过综合分析给出分析结果 ,即中央绿化隔离、中央栅栏隔离带和双黄线隔离的评价顺序。