气候变化对文冠果适宜生境及空间迁移的影响

以文冠果当前地理分布数据为基础,采用物种分布模型（SDM）预测未来气候变化条件下的物种适宜生境及其空间迁移趋势,进而识别可能引起迁移的气候异常因子.结果表明：在当前气候条件下,文冠果适宜生境集中于甘肃东部、宁夏南部、陕西中北部、山西中部及南部,以及青海东部边缘、内蒙-陕西边界区域、河南北部和河北西北部边缘等地区;在气候变化条件下,文冠果适宜生境呈现出整体分布格局基本不变的基础上高适宜生境略有缩减且向东迁移的趋势,不同气候变化情景下的生境丧失率为3.73%~16.6%;在未来极端气候变化情景下,文冠果空间迁移格局绝大部分适宜生境仍为恒有稳定区,迁出丧失区主要集中在适宜生境的西北部和东南部且呈连续分布,迁入新增区仅零散分布于适宜生境的边缘地带,包括内蒙与陕西交界处、山西北部等地;采用多元环境相似度面（MESS）和最不相似变量（MOD）空间分析识别出气候异常区主要位于当前适宜生境的南北边缘,与空间迁移格局相一致.可能引起空间迁移的气候异常因子主要为年平均温度、降水量变异系数和年均降水量.空间迁移区域作为气候变化的高敏感区应予以重视,同时应针对不同的空间迁移区域制定合理有效的资源利用和土地管理策略.     

中国与气候变化

气候变化是当今人类社会面临的最严重的全球环境问题之一。近年来，世界各地气候异常现象突显，使得气候变化问题不断升温，已跃升为国际政治、经济等议题的榜首。从达沃斯世界经济论坛到“G8＋5”领导人对话会议等，都将气候变化问题作为核心议题。[编者按]     

中国与气候变化

气候变化是当今人类社会面临的最严重的全球环境问题之一.近年来,世界各地气候异常现象突显,使得气候变化问题不断升温,已跃升为国际政治、经济等议题的榜首.从达沃斯世界经济论坛到"G8 5"领导人对话会议等,都将气候变化问题作为核心议题.新任联合国秘书长潘基文上任伊始即表示对气候变化采取行动将成为他任内的工作重点之一.     

气候变化及人类活动对地表径流改变的贡献率及其量化方法研究进展

地表径流的变化受气候变化和人类活动的双重驱动力作用,定量评估气候变化及人类活动对地表径流变化的影响对水资源管理具有重大意义。论文以水文循环过程为主线,分过程阐述气候变化及人类活动影响地表径流发生变化的机制机理,对各种量化二者对地表径流变化贡献率的方法进行比较,然后分析全球部分流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化影响的差异。研究结果表明：1）气候变化和人类活动参与水文循环的各个过程之中,不同水文过程中气候变化和人类活动影响地表径流变化的途径不同;2）不同量化方法的适用范围和条件不同,不同方法对同一流域的研究结果可能不一致;3）全球不同流域间气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化贡献率存在明显区域差异。现阶段,综合多种突变检验方法有利于提高识别地表径流突变点的准确率;消除干扰因素（如气象水文等数据选取、模型方法参数设置和方法本身不确定性）有利于提高同一流域不同量化方法评估结果的一致性;如何更好地耦合基于物理的水文模型方法和基于数学的经验统计方法来量化二者对地表径流变化的贡献率是未来研究的重点。     

可持续消费的“他山之石”

<正>电影《后天》和《2012》带给国人的不仅仅是好莱坞天马行空的特技效果,更多的是对人类行为以及对人与环境之间关系的反思。过去两年,是全球自然灾害频发的两年,南极冰川融化加速和全球气候异常也加深了人们对气候变化问题的关注程度。而     

美国印第安人对气候变化与健康的看法

<正>人类对气候变化的反应非常复杂,这也说明了影响全球气候变化的原因是多么地错综复杂.所以单单靠某种物种、经济层面的要素很难预测气候变化.但是足够的证据表明,人们生存的原始驱动力,即渴望未来环境健康的心态,     

减排温室气体：攸关地球命运的行动

近期以来，世界各地气候异常现象接连频繁发生。中国各地气温也出现数十年、上百年未有的异常表现。科学家们警告，气温上升很可能与人类活动产生的温室气体有关，而持续的气温上升将造成冰川消融、海平面上升、水资源短缺、物种加速灭绝等严重后果。为了警醒世人气候变化造成的影响，联合国环境规划署将2007年世界环境日的主题定为“冰川消融，后果堪忧”。与世界环境日主题相呼应，结合中国环境保护的中心任务和重点工作，国家环保总局将今年世界环境日中国主题确定为“污染减排与环境友好型社会”。[编者按]     

低碳旅游及其实现路径

随着工业文明的飞速进展,二氧化碳的排放量越来越大,导致地球臭氧层受到破坏,由此引发的全球气候异常已严重威胁到人类的生存环境.1997年,<联合国气候变化框架公约>第三次缔约方大会通过了<京都议定书>,旨在协同世界各国减低或控制二氧化碳的排放.     

减排温室气体:攸关地球命运的行动

近期以来,世界各地气候异常现象接连频繁发生.中国各地气温也出现数十年、上百年未有的异常表现.科学家们警告,气温上升很可能与人类活动产生的温室气体有关,而持续的气温上升将造成冰川消融、海平面上升、水资源短缺、物种加速灭绝等严重后果.     

海洋疾病的影响因素及其危害

根据国内外有关海洋疾病的研究报道,综述了引起海洋疾病频发的原因及其带来的危害。气候变化是影响海洋疾病的一个重要因素;同时沿海经济的发展以及沿海人口的剧增,使我国海洋环境承受着前所未有的环境污染所带来的压力;人类行为引发和加快了多种复杂的发病模式以及生物自身免疫力的变化,这些主要因素导致海洋疾病的频繁暴发,海洋退化已成为环境科学研究者越来越关注的焦点。海洋疾病给海洋环境的可持续发展带来了巨大的挑战,对人类健康、海洋经济等造成严重的影响。本文提出气候变化、人类行为、生物免疫以及疾病动力学之间的关系是未来海洋疾病的研究重点,同时提出了针对海洋疾病的指导对策。     

现代气候变化对中国热量资源的影响

在全球气候变化中,我国的气候变化将更复杂,对农业气候资源和农业生产的影响也将更为明显。将农业气候资源作为综合气候信息系统来评估气候变化对农业的影响,并探讨相应对策是十分必要的。本文研究气候变化对中国热量资源的影响,对气候条件与农业气候热量资源进行相关分析,建立回归方程及用蒙特卡罗法进行模拟计算,分析了气候变化可能引起的热量资源变化,评价了这一变化对农业的影响并提出相应对策。     

Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)

Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.     

Assessing potential future urban heat island patterns following climate scenarios,socio-economic developments and spatial planning strategies

Climate change and urban development will exacerbate current urban heat island effects. While most studies acknowledge the importance of projected temperature increases for raising urban temperatures, little attention is paid to the impacts of future changes in urbanisation patterns. Yet, steering urban development may be an effective strategy to further limit increases in the intensity and spreading of the urban heat island effect. We describe a method that allows exploring the impact of urban development scenarios on the urban heat island effect. This paper starts with a basic analysis of the strength of this effect in a temperate climate under relatively favourable conditions based on data from amateur weather stations and own observations. It explains local variation in observed temperatures and quantifies how the urban heat island effect may develop in the coming 30 years. Using the obtained relations, we assess potential future changes building on existing scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes and a land use simulation model. Our measurements for the Amsterdam region in the Netherlands indicate that the urban heat island effect induces maximum temperature differences with the surrounding countryside of over 3 °C on moderately warm summer days. The simulations of potential future changes indicate that strong local temperature increases are likely due to urban development. Climate change will, on average, have a limited impact on these changes. Large impacts can, however, be expected from the combination of urban development and potentially more frequent occurrences of extreme climatic events such as heat waves. Spatial planning strategies that reduce the lateral spread of urban development will thus greatly help to limit a further increase in urban heat island values.     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对“适应气候变化”却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。文章在前文“发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖”减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度.因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视.其实,对发展中国家〈适应气候变化〉才是当务之急.文章在前文＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径.     

南京地区环境资源综合开发与利用中气候异常的探讨

本文采用南京 1 90 5-1 998年平均气温资料对各月平均气温异常指数和寒暑差度参数及其 1 0年滑动平均的变化特征作了详细分析和讨论 ,同时对降水量异常进行了分析。并针对南京地区环境资源综合开发与利用中气候急剧变化提出了对策建议。     

气候变化与持续农业浅析

从持续农业的内涵出发,讨论了气候变化与持续农业的关系。并从农作物生产力和产量、种植制度、区域农业生产及生产费用等几方面分析了气候变化对中国持续农业的影响。指出温室效应引起的气候变化可能使我国农业生产的不稳定性加剧,自然资源短缺,农业成本增加,对农业生产有一定的不利影响,不应盲目乐观。     

土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响研究进展

研究土地利用变化对土壤有机碳及其动态变化规律,有助于掌握全球气候变化与土地利用变化之间的关系。本文分别从土地利用及其管理方式变化的角度,综合阐述了土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响过程与机理。     

Climate Modelling,Uncertainty and Responses to Predictions of Change

Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by,inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (or, better, adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. The urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions ofglobal climatic change and the need for information onlocal to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. Moreover, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. Unfortunately, climate models cannot yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.