会稽山古香榧群农业多功能价值评估

香榧（Torreya grandis cv.Merrillii）是我国古老的原产树种和世界稀有的经济树种,目前会稽山古香榧群已列为全球重要农业文化遗产和中国重要农业文化遗产候选地.利用农业多功能多维评价模型并结合会稽山古香榧群的特点,从经济功能、生物多样性保护功能、农业景观保留功能、农业文化传承功能和生态环境保护功能5个方面,对会稽山古香榧群进行综合评价.结果表明,会稽山古香榧群的农业文化传承功能指数值最高,为1,生态环境保护功能和农业景观保留功能指数分别为0.85和0.43,经济功能值和生物多样性保护功能指数值比较低,分别为0.25和0.29.说明会稽山古香榧群的主导功能是农业文化传承功能,其次是生态环境保护功能和农业景观保留功能.     

Epiphyte Biodiversity in the Coffee Agricultural Matrix: Canopy Stratification and Distance from Forest Fragments

Abstract: Quality of the agricultural matrix profoundly affects biodiversity and dispersal in agricultural areas. Vegetatively complex coffee agroecosystems maintain species richness at larger distances from the forest. Epiphytes colonize canopy trees and provide resources for birds and insects and thus effects of agricultural production on epiphytes may affect other species. We compared diversity, composition, and vertical stratification of epiphytes in a forest fragment and in two coffee farms differing in management intensity in southern Mexico. We also examined spatial distribution of epiphytes with respect to the forest fragment to examine quality of the two agricultural matrix types for epiphyte conservation. We sampled vascular epiphytes in a forest fragment, a shade polyculture farm, and a shade monoculture farm at 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m from the forest. Epiphyte and orchid richness was greater in the forest than in the monoculture but richness was similar in the forest and polyculture farm. Epiphyte species composition differed with habitat type, but not with distance from the forest. In the forest, epiphytes were distributed throughout tree canopies, but in the farms, epiphytes were primarily found on trunks and larger branches. Epiphyte richness and species similarity to forest species declined with distance from the forest fragment in the monoculture, but richness and similarity to forest species did not decline with distance from forest in the polyculture. This suggests polyculture coffee has greater conservation value. In contrast, monoculture coffee is likely a sink habitat for epiphytes dispersing from forests into coffee. Coffee farms differ from forests in terms of the habitat they provide and species composition, thus protecting forest fragments is essential for epiphyte conservation. Nonetheless, in agricultural landscapes, vegetatively complex coffee farms may contribute to conservation of epiphytes more than other agricultural land uses.     

The archaeology of deforestation in south coastal Turkey

The Rough Cilicia Archaeological Survey Project investigates landscape transformation as a component to its regional survey of ancient Rough Cilicia (south coastal Turkey opposite Cyprus). Rough Cilicia was celebrated during antiquity for pristine cedar forests that stood between 1500 and 1800 m in altitude along the slopes of the Taurus Mountains. Today along the front range of the Taurus Mountains this forest is completely denuded or otherwise replanted with recent growth in the past 80 years. We employ paleoenvironmental analysis of relic cedar forests in the Taurus Mountains to construct a timeline of anthropogenic disturbances associated with population growth over time and thereby assess the sustainability of ancient forestry practices. To obtain these data, the team recovers pollen and carbon samples from geomorphologic trenches excavated in the cedar zone, tree ring data from dendrochronological survey of the existing forest, and archaeological data from remains of ancient highland settlements. Preliminary results indicate that current perspectives about the timing of deforestation in this region are flawed and that the initial deforestation coincided with regional site abandonment and population decline at the end of antiquity.     

Countryside Biogeography of Moths in a Fragmented Landscape: Biodiversity in Native and Agricultural Habitats

Abstract: Studies of fragmented landscapes, especially in the tropics, have traditionally focused on the native fragments themselves, ignoring species distributions in surrounding agricultural or other human-dominated areas. We sampled moth species richness within a 227-ha forest fragment and in four surrounding agricultural habitats (coffee, shade coffee, pasture, and mixed farms) in southern Costa Rica. We found no significant difference in moth species richness or abundance among agricultural habitats, but agricultural sites within 1 km of the forest fragment had significantly higher richness and abundance than sites farther than 3.5 km from the fragment. In addition, species composition differed significantly between distance classes ( but not among agricultural habitats), with near sites more similar to forest than far sites. These results suggest that (1) different agricultural production regimes in this region may offer similar habitat elements and thus may not differ substantially in their capacities to support native moth populations and (2) that the majority of moths may utilize both native and agricultural habitats and move frequently between them, forming "halos" of relatively high species richness and abundance around forest fragments. Correlations between species richness and the amount of nearby forest cover, measured over circles of various radii around the sites, suggest that halos extend approximately 1.0–1.4 km from the forest edge. The extent of these halos likely differs among taxa and may influence their ability to survive in fragmented landscapes.     

The importance of agricultural lands for Himalayan birds in winter

The impacts of land‐use change on biodiversity in the Himalayas are poorly known, notwithstanding widespread deforestation and agricultural intensification in this highly biodiverse region. Although intact primary forests harbor many Himalayan birds during breeding, a large number of bird species use agricultural lands during winter. We assessed how Himalayan bird species richness, abundance, and composition during winter are affected by forest loss stemming from agriculture and grazing. Bird surveys along 12 elevational transects within primary forest, low‐intensity agriculture, mixed subsistence agriculture, and intensively grazed pastures in winter revealed that bird species richness and abundance were greatest in low‐intensity and mixed agriculture, intermediate in grazed pastures, and lowest in primary forest at both local and landscape scales; over twice as many species and individuals were recorded in low‐intensity agriculture than in primary forest. Bird communities in primary forests were distinct from those in all other land‐use classes, but only 4 species were unique to primary forests. Low‐, medium‐, and high‐intensity agriculture harbored 32 unique species. Of the species observed in primary forest, 80% had equal or greater abundance in low‐intensity agricultural lands, underscoring the value of these lands in retaining diverse community assemblages at high densities in winter. Among disturbed landscapes, bird species richness and abundance declined as land‐use intensity increased, especially in high‐intensity pastures. Our results suggest that agricultural landscapes are important for most Himalayan bird species in winter. But agricultural intensification—especially increased grazing—will likely result in biodiversity losses. Given that forest reserves alone may inadequately conserve Himalayan birds in winter, comprehensive conservation strategies in the region must go beyond protecting intact primary forests and ensure that low‐intensity agricultural lands are not extensively converted to high‐intensity pastures.     

Landscape constraints on functional diversity of birds and insects in tropical agroecosystems

In this paper, we analyzeatabases on birds and insects to assess patterns of functional diversity in human-dominated landscapes in the tropics. A perspective from developed landscapes is essential for understanding remnant natural ecosystems, because most species experience their surroundings at spatial scales beyond the plot level, and spillover between natural and managed ecosystems is common. Agricultural bird species have greater habitat and diet breadth than forest species. Based on a global data base, bird assemblages in tropical agroforest ecosystems were composed of disproportionately more frugivorous and nectarivorous, but fewer insectivorous bird species compared with forest. Similarly, insect predators of plant-feeding arthropods were more diverse in Ecuadorian agroforest and forest compared with rice and pasture, while, in Indonesia, bee diversity was also higher in forested habitats. Hence, diversity of insectivorous birds and insect predators as well as bee pollinators declined with agricultural transformation. In contrast, with increasing agricultural intensification, avian pollinators and seed dispersers initially increase then decrease in proportion. It is well established that the proximity of agricultural habitats to forests has a strong influence on the functional diversity of agroecosystems. Community similarity is higher among agricultural systems than in natural habitats and higher in simple than in complex landscapes for both birds and insects, so natural communities, low-intensity agriculture, and heterogeneous landscapes appear to be critical in the preservation of beta diversity. We require a better understanding of the relative role of landscape composition and the spatial configuration of landscape elements in affecting spillover of functionally important species across managed and natural habitats. This is important for data-based management of tropical human-dominated landscapes sustaining the capacity of communities to reorganize after disturbance and to ensure ecological functioning.     

Persistence of Forest Birds in the Costa Rican Agricultural Countryside

Abstract:  Understanding the persistence mechanisms of tropical forest species in human-dominated landscapes is a fundamental challenge of tropical ecology and conservation. Many species, including more than half of Costa Rica's native land birds, use mostly deforested agricultural countryside, but how they do so is poorly known. Do they commute regularly to forest or can some species survive in this human-dominated landscape year-round? Using radiotelemetry, we detailed the habitat use, movement, foraging, and nesting patterns of three bird species, Catharus aurantiirostris , Tangara icterocephala , and Turdus assimilis , by obtaining 8101 locations from 156 individuals. We chose forest birds that varied in their vulnerability to deforestation and were representative of the species found both in forest and human-dominated landscapes. Our study species did not commute from extensive forest; rather, they fed and bred in the agricultural countryside. Nevertheless, T. icterocephala and T. assimilis , which are more habitat sensitive, were highly dependent on the remaining trees. Although trees constituted only 11% of land cover, these birds spent 69% to 85% of their time in them. Breeding success of C. aurantiirostris and T. icterocephala in deforested habitats was not different than in forest remnants, where T. assimilis experienced reduced breeding success. Although this suggests an ecological trap for T. assimilis , higher fledgling survival in forest remnants may make up for lower productivity. Tropical countryside has high potential conservation value, which can be enhanced with even modest increases in tree cover. Our findings have applicability to many human-dominated tropical areas that have the potential to conserve substantial biodiversity if appropriate restoration measures are taken.     

用灰色关联法分析森林生态系统植被状况对地表径流系数的影响

运用灰色关联法对南亚热带鹤山丘陵试验站４种森林生态系统植被状况影响地表径流系数进行了定量分析,结果表明：对于本文所选取的植被状况参数对地表径流系数影响的大小顺序是：枯落叶层厚度〉草本层盖度〉灌木层盖度〉林分高;４种森林生态系统的植被状况对地表径流系数的影响,马占相思林最大,平权关联度与非平权灰关联度分别为０．７８２和０．７６６;林果苗系统最小,平权关联度与非平权灰关联度分别为０．５３２和０．５３５     

中条山东段植被垂直带的数量分类研究

在野外调查的基础上,应用有序样方聚类法对中条山东段植 垂直带进行了数量分类研究,结果为：１．落叶阔叶林带,包括４个亚带：（１）侧柏林带（５００￣８００ｍ）,（２０松栎林带（８００￣１８００ｍ）,（３）栓皮林带（１４００￣２０００ｍ）和（４）杨桦林带（１９００￣２２００ｍ）;２．山地草甸带（２１００￣２３５８ｍ）。此外,与前人的划分结果进行了比较,结果表明,有序样方聚类法的结果更符合实际情况。     

Nested Subsets and the Distribution of Birds on Isolated Woodlots

Abstract. Distribution of bird species among isolated habitat patches (e.g., woodlots in an agricultural landscape) often appears to be nonrandom; species present in small, species-poor patches also are found in larger patches that support more species. Bird communities form 'nested subsets' (after Patterson & Atmar 1986) if all species found in small faunas also are found in more species-rich assemblages. Occurrence of a nested subset pattern implies an underlying, nonrandom pattern of species distributions. I used computer simulations to analyze the degree of nestedness exhibited by bird communities in east-central Illinois. Results demonstrated that the distribution of bird species breeding in isolated woodlots (1.8 to 600 ha) differed significantly from that predicted by a random distribution model; species assemblages were more "nested" than expected by chance. Most species present in small, species-poor woodlots also were found in larger, species-rich woodlots. As groups, species requiring forest interior habitat for breeding and species wintering in the tropics showed highly nested distributions. In contrast, short-distance migrants and species breeding in forest edge habitat showed more variable distribution patterns, species recorded on smaller woodlots were not always recorded on larger, more species-rich wood-lots. Apparent absences from larger woodlots may have reflected real distribution patterns or insufficient sampling of edge habitats. These results support previous conclusions that small habitat patches are insufficient for preservation of many species.     

Patterns of animal diversity in different forms of tree cover in agricultural landscapes.

As tropical regions are converted to agriculture, conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on the maintenance of protected forest areas, but also on the scope for conservation within the agricultural matrix in which they are embedded. Tree cover typically retained in agricultural landscapes in the neotropics may provide resources and habitats for animals, but little is known about the extent to which it contributes to conservation of animal species. Here, we explore the animal diversity associated with different forms of tree cover for birds, bats, butterflies, and dung beetles in a pastoral landscape in Nicaragua. We measured species richness and abundance of these four animal taxa in riparian and secondary forest, forest fallows, live fences, and pastures with high and low tree cover. We recorded over 20,000 individuals of 189 species including 14 endangered bird species. Mean abundance and species richness of birds and bats, but not dung beetles or butterflies, were significantly different among forms of tree cover. Species richness of bats and birds was positively correlated with tree species richness. While the greatest numbers of bird species were associated with riparian and secondary forest, forest fallows, and pastures with >15% tree cover, the greatest numbers of bat species were found in live fences and riparian forest. Species assemblages of all animal taxa were different among tree cover types, so that maintaining a diversity of forms of tree cover led to conservation of more animal species in the landscape as a whole. Overall, the findings indicate that retaining tree cover within agricultural landscapes can help conserve animal diversity, but that conservation efforts need to target forms of tree cover that conserve the taxa that are of interest locally. Preventing the degradation of remaining forest fragments is a priority, but encouraging farmers to maintain tree cover in pastures and along boundaries may also make an important contribution to animal conservation.     

Effects of Land Use on Bird Species Richness in Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract:  There is still much debate over the potential value of land-use systems for the maintenance of tropical biodiversity. An increasing number of studies indicate that much forest biodiversity can also be found in the agricultural landscape matrix. Because there is little information on the potential value of land-use systems for tropical forest bird species, we conducted repeated point counts in near-primary forest, adjacent young secondary forest, modernized cacao agroforestry systems, and annual cultures at submontane elevations in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Species richness decreased from natural forest and young secondary forest to agroforestry systems and annual cultures. Although species richness was similar between natural and young secondary forest, the number of endemic bird species was significantly lower in second-growth forest. Species composition gradually changed as the habitat changed from natural to secondary forest, agroforestry systems, and annual cultures. Despite close proximity to near-primary forest, the agroforestry systems studied supported only a few small frugivorous-nectarivorous species. Our results suggest that secondary forest could play an important role in the conservation of many Sulawesi bird species, but, although suitable for colonization, its potential to sustain populations over the long term is unknown. Improvement of the landscape matrix for biodiversity conservation through secondary habitats therefore seems desirable to enlarge the ranges of forest species, but the fight against land conversion within protected areas of the region should be of much higher importance, at least at present.     

Changes in Forest Use Value through Ecological Succession and Their Implications for Land Management in the Peruvian Amazon

Abstract:  Research on local use values of forests across an ecological succession informs land-use decisions and conservation planning. I evaluated use values of three age classes of secondary forest: fallow fields (<5 years old, $8.20/ha/year), young secondary forest (5–20 years old, $20.60/ha/year), and old secondary forest (>20 years old, $6.80/ha/year). I quantified daily forest product use and calculated use values in dollars per hectare per year for three communities in the northern Peruvian Amazon. I made three comparisons between forest types: number of useful species, value based on different use categories, and overall use values. Old secondary forest had the greatest number of total species present and species collected. Wood, food, and medicine were the three most valuable use categories. The value different families extracted from local forests varied enormously, but median forest values were lower for all forest types than potential gains from agricultural land use (e.g., coffee $167/ha/year). Values of different-aged stands on privately owned lands in two communities did not differ significantly, whereas in the third community, young secondary forest had a significantly greater value than other forest types. Old secondary forests were the most valuable source of wood products, and wood was the only use category in which there was any difference in the value of products extracted from different-aged forest stands. The value of all three forest types on open-access (nonprivate) lands was minimal (mean in each forest type, $0/ha/year). Local people can utilize the valuation results to develop land-use strategies that balance forest product use, agricultural productivity, and biodiversity conservation.     

Trade‐Offs between Cattle Production and Bird Conservation in an Agricultural Frontier of the Gran Chaco of Argentina

Intensification of food production in tropical landscapes in the absence of land‐use planning can pose a major threat to biological diversity. Decisions on whether to spatially integrate or segregate lands for production and conservation depend in part on the functional relations between biological diversity and agricultural productivity. We measured diversity, density, and species composition of birds along a gradient of production intensification on an agricultural frontier of the Argentine Chaco, where dry tropical forests are cleared for cattle production. Bird species diversity in intact forests was higher than in any type of cattle‐production system. Bird species richness decreased nonlinearly as cattle yield increased. Intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems, those in which forest understory is selectively cleared to grow pastures of non‐native plants beneath the tree canopy, produced 80% of the mean cattle yield obtained in pastures on cleared areas and were occupied by 70–90% of the number of bird species present in the nearest forest fragments. Densities of >50% of bird species were significantly lower in open pastures than in silvopastoral systems. Therefore, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems may have the greatest potential to sustain cattle yield and conserve a large percentage of bird species. However, compared with low‐intensity production systems, in which forest structure and extent were intact, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems supported significantly fewer forest‐restricted bird species and fewer frugivorous birds. These data suggest that the integration of production and conservation through intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems combined with the protection of forest fragments may be required to maintain cattle yield, bird diversity, and conservation of forest‐restricted species in this agricultural frontier. Compromisos entre la Producción de Ganado y la Conservación de Aves en una Frontera Agrícola del Gran Chaco de Argentina     

Remote Forest Refugia for Fijian Wildlife

Abstract:  On Pacific islands non-native rats and mongooses threaten many native species. In Fiji we compared visitation rates of rats and mongooses at bait stations and measured biomass of leaf-litter invertebrates to assess the relative predation pressure from these species in forest areas at different distances from the forest edge. Forest areas over 5 km from the forest edge had significantly fewer baits encountered by rats or mongooses than did natural forest areas nearer agricultural and urban habitats. Remote forest areas may function as a last refuge for island species threatened by predation from non-native rats and mongooses. The biomass of leaf-litter invertebrates in remote forest areas was higher, indicating a refuge effect for some taxa targeted by rats and mongooses. Protection of the few remaining large blocks of natural forests on Pacific islands may be the most cost-effective approach for conserving many island endemics threatened by rats and mongooses. Logging roads can compromise this refuge effect by acting as dispersal routes for rats into natural forests.     

Verifying an Extinction Debt among Lichens and Fungi in Northern Swedish Boreal Forests

Abstract:  Destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats results in small species populations that face increased risk of extinction. A time delay may be involved in the regional extinction of species, and the number of species that eventually may go extinct in the future is called the "extinction debt." In boreal Sweden, we examined whether the number of epiphytic crustose lichens and wood-inhabiting fungi in old-growth forest remnants diverges from species richness levels in forest patches that have been naturally isolated for millennia. An excess of species in forest remnants could indicate the presence of an extinction debt. Observed species richness in 32 old-growth forest remnants (also called woodland key habitats [WKHs]) was compared with predicted species richness. To predict species richness we used regression models based on data from 46 isolated old-growth forest patches in a forest-wetland matrix. The reference landscape is ancient and assumed to reflect the conditions of insular floras in dynamic equilibrium. Stand factors constituted predictive variables in the models. The observed number of lichen species was higher than expected (i.e., an extinction debt among lichens may exist). By contrast, there was no significant difference between observed and expected species richness among wood-inhabiting fungi. The species richness of wood-inhabiting fungi has adjusted to the changes in forest and landscape structure more rapidly than the species richness of lichens. Differences in substrate dynamics between epiphytes on living trees and species growing on decaying logs might explain the difference between species groups. The results also indicate that population densities of red-listed species were low, which may result in continuing extinctions of red-listed species. The importance of WKHs might be overvalued because species may be lost if conservation efforts consider only protection and preservation of WKHs.     

广东省农业生态环境问题与对策

随着社会经济和城市化的快速发展，以及人口的剧增，广东省的农业发展正面临一系列严重的生态环境问题。这些问题包括耕地资源日益缺乏，农业环境污染日益严重，土壤肥力退化和水土流失仍未遏止，地区性的洪旱灾害频繁，森林生态系统简单而脆弱，外来物种入侵猖獗，等等。文章对这些问题进行了讨论，并提出了若干治理对策。认为要使广东省农业可持续发展，必须合理开发利用农业自然资源，严格控制非农业用地与人口增长，加强农业环境污染的防治，加强土壤肥力退化和水土流失的综合治理，发展节水农业，改善林分结构和生态服务功能。此外，认为还应加强外来物种的安全防范工作和科学研究，防止外来物种对农业生态系统的组成、结构和功能的破坏。     

Soil Collembola Diversity, Endemism, and Reforestation: A Case Study in the Pyrenees (France)

The diversity of soil Collembola was studied in two sites of the central Pyrenees (France). In each site a seminatural beech forest was compared to a conifer plantation. At the Rille site planted spruce and naturally regenerated beech forest were established on ancient meadows, and at the Carmil site a fir plantation had locally replaced the natural beech forest. Thirty-two soil cores of 250 cm³ were collected in each forest type at each site, and core fauna were extracted with a Berlese-Tullgren funnel. Differences in structure and composition of collembolan communities were observed from original to planted forest, and these changes followed different patterns at the two sites. In both cases, however, the diversity of the fauna was impoverished in the plantation. The endemic component suffered a particularly severe loss in species richness and abundance, whereas non-endemic species were more weakly affected. Endemic biota, which from a conservation perspective represent the most valuable element of the fauna, were its most vulnerable component. Endemic species and endemic areas therefore deserve particular attention when biodiversity fluctuations caused by reforestation are studied. This could lead to reassessment of the potential effects of artificial reforestation on the biodiversity of temperate forests. There is a general need for a systematic inventory and protection of forests with endemic soil biota.     

The Early Development of Forest Fragmentation Effects on Birds

The early development of forest fragmentation effects on forest organisms is poorly understood partly because most fragmentation studies have been done in agricultural or suburban landscapes, long after the onset of fragmentation. We develop a temporal model of forest fragmentation effects on densities of forest-breeding birds and provide data from an active industrial forest landscape to test the model. The model and our empirical data indicate that densities of several forest-dwelling bird species can increase within a forest stand soon after the onset of fragmentation as a result of displaced individuals packing into remaining habitat. Along with higher densities in the newly formed fragments, pairing success in one species, the Ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapillus ), was lower in fragments than nonfragments, possibly due to behavioral dysfunction resulting from high densities. Thus, density was inversely related to productivity. The duration and extent of increased densities following onset of fragmentation depends on many factors, including the sensitivity of a species to edge and area effects, the duration and rate of habitat loss and fragmentation, and the proximity of a forest stand to the disturbance. Incipient forest fragmentation may affect populations differently from later stages of fragmentation when the geometry of the landscape has reached a more stable configuration. Our model and data indicate, for reasons unrelated to traditional edge effects, that large tracts of forest can be important because they are relatively free from the variety of plant and animal population dynamics that might take place near new edges, including the encroachment of individuals displaced by habitat loss.     

Effects of Conversion of Dry Tropical Forest to Agricultural Mosaic on Herpetofaunal Assemblages

Abstract: We explored the impact of forest conversion to agricultural mosaic on anuran, lizard, snake, and turtle assemblages of Neotropical dry forests. Over 2 years, we sampled 6 small watersheds on the west coast of Mexico, 3 conserved and 3 disturbed. The disturbed watersheds were characterized by a mosaic of pastures and cultivated fields (corn, beans, squash) intermingled with patches of different successional stages of dry forest. In each watershed, we conducted 11 diurnal and nocturnal time‐constrained searches in 10 randomly established plots. We considered vulnerability traits of species in relation to habitat modification. Eighteen anuran, 18 lizard, 23 snake, and 3 turtle species were recorded. Thirty‐six species (58%) occurred in both forest conditions, and 14 (22%) and 12 species (19%) occurred only in the conserved and disturbed sites, respectively. Assemblages responded differently to disturbance. Species richness, diversity, and abundance of lizards were higher in disturbed forests. Anuran diversity and species richness were lower in disturbed forest but abundance was similar in both forest conditions. Diversity, richness, and abundance of turtles were lower in disturbed forest. The structure and composition of snake assemblages did not differ between forest conditions. We considered species disturbance sensitive if their abundance was significantly less in disturbed areas. Four anuran (22%), 2 lizard (11%), and 3 turtle (100%) species were sensitive to disturbance. No snake species was sensitive. The decline in abundance of disturbance‐sensitive species was associated with the reduction of forest canopy cover, woody stem cover, roots, and litter‐layer ground cover. Anuran species with small body size and direct embryonic development were especially sensitive to forest disturbance. An important goal for the conservation of herpetofauna should be the determination of species traits associated with extinction or persistence in agricultural mosaics.