城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故三维风险数值模拟

城市燃气管道在发生泄漏导致火灾爆炸事故时,在空间某点形成的风险,不仅与泄漏量、泄漏时间有关,还与空间有无障碍物、泄漏环境等因素有关。基于物理场经典的场理论,定义城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故的风险场,推导出多个危险源在空间某点形成的风险强度公式。利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA数值模拟软件模拟有无障碍物时爆炸事故形成的风险在空间传播规律。结果表明,障碍物对空气超压峰值的影响具有距离效应。在障碍物近区,空气冲击波经反射叠加作用造成超压峰值急剧升高;在障碍物远区,空气冲击波经障碍物反射后由于随距离衰减过快,对超压峰值影响微弱,甚至没有影响。同时对有障碍物存在时进行爆炸破坏效应模拟,得到爆炸破坏效应的5个分区,界定了爆炸破坏对人身伤害程度范围。首次提出了城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故风险场的概念,并运用风险场理论研究了空间某点多个危险源同时存在时的风险传播问题。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的城市综合管廊燃气泄漏动态风险评价

为解决综合管廊燃气管网系统风险因素多、风险状态随时间动态变化等问题,在传统故障树和静态贝叶斯网络等方法的基础上提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络的城市综合管廊燃气泄漏动态风险评价方法。首先利用蝴蝶结模型分析总结了导致综合管廊燃气管网发生泄漏的主要风险源和不同事故后果。然后,引入时间因素与Leaky Noisy-or Gate模型,根据故障树模型的映射规则,建立城市综合管廊燃气泄漏的动态贝叶斯网络模型。最后,利用动态贝叶斯网络的双向推理功能对模型进行求解。由实例分析得到了某综合管廊燃气泄漏概率及各事故后果概率的时序变化曲线,通过反向推理得到了导致燃气泄漏的主要风险源。研究成果可为综合管廊的风险评估、日常维护提供理论支持。     

因果图和模糊综合风险评价在城市燃气输配系统的应用

针对复杂的城市燃气输配系统,利用因果图和模糊综合评价相结合的方法对其进行风险分析.因果图能找出影响城市燃气输配系统失效的因素,模糊综合评价则可在其基础上对风险量化.以某市的燃气输配系统为例描述了该方法的步骤.结果表明,因果图和模糊综合评价相结合的方法合理且易于工程应用.     

城市燃气事故灰色预测模型及其应用

城市燃气系统是一个动态的不确定性系统,燃气事故发生具有随机性.运用灰色理论预测城市燃气事故,以上海市市北地区燃气死亡统计数据为原始数据,建立灰色预测模型,同时对模型的可靠性和准确性进行了检验.根据灰色理论模型GM(1,1)建立的城市燃气死亡事故预测模型为X(1)(k+1)=1962e0.048k.模型检验结果表明,关联度r=0.682 5>0.6,通过关联度检验;模型预测精度σ=97.8%达到最好;后验差比C=0.42,P=1,对照灰色预测精度检验等级标准,检验精度达到Ⅱ级,接近Ⅰ级.研究表明,城市燃气死亡事故预测模型还可用于安全工作成效性评价.     

定量风险评价在炼化一体化项目中的应用

本文阐述了定量风险评价的指标、模型和一般程序,给出了定量风险评价的标准,采用定量风险评价的方法对某企业规划建设的炼化一体化项目进行个人风险和社会风险水平计算。个人风险计算结果表明,该炼化一体化项目所在厂区内没有出现1×10-3的风险等值线,1×10-4、1×10-5和1×10-6的风险等值线也没有超出厂区边界,说明该炼化一体化项目厂区内部和周边人员所面临的个人风险是可以接受的。社会风险计算结果表明,该炼化一体化项目的社会风险曲线处在可容许区范围内,没有进入不可容许区和ALARP区,说明该项目的社会风险也是可以接受的。本文采用的定量风险评价方法可为规划或已建炼化一体化项目进行风险水平评估提供必要的参考依据。     

化工园区区域定量风险评价及其应用研究

讨论了化工园区域定量风险评价的基本程序和评价指标,提出了定量风险计算的个人风险和社会风险计算模型.利用SAFETI软件对碳一分公司进行定量风险计算,得出碳一分公司区域的个人风险等值线图和社会风险曲线图.依据计算结果分析碳一分公司化工园区域的风险现状.     

大型LNG储罐区卸料管线泄漏事故定量风险分析

伴随着LNG接收站储罐区规模的不断增大,对大型LNG储罐区潜在风险进行定量风险分析意义重大。针对大型LNG储罐区定量风险分析,根据国外权威部门制定的风险标准,结合中国石化行业实际情况,制定出适于LNG接收站的个人及社会风险标准;应用风险评价指数(RAC)矩阵法对储罐区潜在风险进行识别,确定对储罐区LNG卸料管线的全口径断裂事故场景进行定量风险分析。在此基础之上,应用挪威DNV的SAFETI软件对储罐区LNG卸料管线全口径断裂进行定量风险分析,得出对接收站的个人及社会风险图表,根据分析结果并提出相应的建议措施,从而为LNG接收站的安全设计提供指导。     

燃气管线相邻地下空间安全监测方法及其应用研究

城市燃气管线泄漏极易导致火灾爆炸等重大安全事故,严重威胁城市安全。通过监测预警技术,快速准确地发现泄漏,防止可燃气体聚集,是保障燃气管线安全运行的重要手段。提出了一种燃气管线相邻地下空间安全监测预警方法,构建了风险识别、预测预警、分析推演和决策支持一体化安全监测系统,并应用于合肥市2.5 km燃气管线及其相邻空间高风险区域。结果表明,提出的燃气管线相邻地下空间安全监测方法可用于燃气管线泄漏监测预警,以减少或避免燃气泄漏引发的火灾爆炸事故。     

天然气管道泄漏火球事故后果模拟评价

天然气管道发生泄漏时,大约90%的气体产生燃烧并形成火球,遇火源即发生危害性非常大的火球爆炸事故。本文针对城市天然气管道泄漏事故,综合考虑天然气泄漏后可能发生的火球燃烧和爆炸,利用爆炸冲击波和火球热辐射模型对天然气管道(完全破裂)在发生泄漏时发生火球爆炸进行计算,结果表明:2分钟内泄漏天然气云团超压爆炸的死亡半径和热辐射的火球半径分别高达39.44m和92.93m。因此,通过计算天然气泄漏火球事故爆炸和热辐射范围,对天然气火球爆炸事故预防与应急救援具有一定的意义。     

Quantitative assessment of environmental risk due to accidental spills from onshore pipelines

The transport of hazardous materials by pipeline is widely used for the transfer of significant quantities of oil and chemicals. Due to the extremely low frequency of spills, pipelines are considered the safest mode for the land transportation of hazardous substances. Accident records, while confirming that Loss of Containment (LOC) events are rare, also point out the major-accident hazard of pipelines, due to the extremely severe potential consequences of spills. Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) techniques have been applied to pipelines since many years with the aim of evaluating risk for workers or exposed population. However, releases of liquids, as oil and oil products, also create an hazard to the environment, due to the potential of extensive soil and groundwater contamination. An integrated model was developed for the environmental Risk Analysis of spills from pipelines. Specific environmental risk indexes were defined, expressing the risk of soil and groundwater contamination, both in physical and economic terms. A case-study is presented and discussed to illustrate the features of the methodology. The results confirmed that the proposed model may be considered an important tool within a comprehensive approach to the management of risk related to onshore pipelines.     

液化天然气场站事故定量风险评价方法研究

液化天然气（LNG）具有低温、易挥发、易燃、易爆的特性,其场站安全问题凸显。研究结合某LNG汽车加注站加注枪或管道LNG溢出的可能性事故,对事故发生概率及后果进行定量分析,其中事故后果的确定采用DEGAD IS和LNGF ire3模型。文章结合相关文献提供的伤害准则数据,得出人员受伤等级和死亡率,进而确定事故造成的个人风险值。与英国、荷兰等国家和机构制定的个人风险标准进行比较,所得的个人风险大大低于标准极限值,同时表明将5kW/m2作为安全距离临界热辐射强度的合理性。     

城市天然气管道半定量风险评估方法研究

以实现天然气管道风险评估资源的合理分配，确定天然气管道定量风险评估的重点为目标，改进燃气管道风险评估方法的肯特模型，探求城市天然气管道的半定量风险评估方法；分析了城市埋地天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的影响因子，并研究其评分标准；分别给出了城市天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的等级划分标准，并运用半定量风险矩阵进行燃气管道单元的风险初步排序，以确定高风险管道单元；对城市天然气管道进行半定量风险评估，可为识别管道沿线高风险后果区域、风险动态排序、风险预警及制定事故应急预案等提供科学依据和方法指导，具有重要的工程应用价值。     

低概率重大事故风险与定量风险评价

论述应用定量风险评价(QRA)对评价、控制低概率重大事故风险的重要意义.介绍了低概率重大风险范畴与主要来源,QRA技术的主要用途与基本方法,研发与使用QRA计算重大风险的主要技术程序.提出了在应用QRA评价重大风险时应注意的几个主要技术问题.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Quantitative risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems

This paper presents a novel quantitative risk analysis process for urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems (GIS). The process incorporates an assessment of failure rates of integrated pipeline networks, a quantitative analysis model of accident consequences, and assessments of individual and societal risks. Firstly, the failure rates of the pipeline network are calculated using empirical formulas influenced by parameters such as external interference, corrosion, construction defects, and ground movements. Secondly, the impacts of accidents due to gas leakage, diffusion, fires, and explosions are analyzed by calculating the area influenced by poisoning, burns, and deaths. Lastly, based on the previous analyses, individual risks and social risks are calculated. The application of GIS technology helps strengthen the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) model and allows construction of a QRA system for urban gas pipeline networks that can aid pipeline management staff in demarcating high risk areas requiring more frequent inspections.     

Historical analysis of U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

Incidents at U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline systems were analyzed with an emphasis on natural hazards. Incidents triggered by natural hazards (natechs) were identified by keyword-based data mining and expert review supplemented by various data sources. The analysis covered about 7000 incidents in 1986–2012, 3800 of which were regarded as significant based on their consequences. 5.5% of all and 6.2% of the significant incidents were found to be natechs that resulted in a total hazardous substance release of 317,700 bbl. Although there is no trend in the long-term yearly occurrence of significant natechs, importance is found to be increasing due to the overall decreasing trend of the incidents. Meteorological hazards triggered 36% of the significant natechs, followed by geological and climatic hazards with 26% and 24%. While they occurred less frequently, hydrological hazards caused the highest amount of release which is about 102,000 bbl. The total economic cost of significant natechs was 597 million USD, corresponding to about 18% of all incident costs in the same period. More than 50% of this cost was due to meteorological hazards, mainly tropical cyclones. Natech vulnerabilities of the system parts vary notably with respect to natural hazard types. For some natural hazards damage is limited possibly due to implemented protection measures. The geographical distribution of the natechs indicated that they occurred more in some states, such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. About 50% of the releases was to the ground, followed by water bodies with 28%. Significant consequences to human health were not observed although more than 20% of the incidents resulted in fires. In general, the study indicated that natural hazards are a non-negligible threat to the onshore hazardous liquid pipeline network in the U.S. It also highlighted problems such as underreporting of natural hazards as incident causes, data completeness, and explicit data limitations.     

化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法

为有效评估地震灾害与化工园区工业事故的耦合风险,在分析地震灾害作用于化工园区致灾特征的基础上,理清化工园区的主要承灾体类型,辨识出地震破坏承灾体单元后引发的火灾、爆炸、中毒等工业事故的主要影响因素,采用层次分析法(AHP),提出综合考虑地震灾害与工业事故耦合作用的Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法.该方法以化工园区企业...     

Fuzzy Application Procedure (FAP) for the risk assessment of occupational accidents

This paper concerns a procedure to quantify the risk of occupational accidents based on Fuzzy Logic approach, named Fuzzy Application Procedure (FAP). FAP was developed as a support tool, after the method based on fuzzy logic was developed and validated. The methodology and FAP support tool were found to be able to quantitatively assess the risk of occupational accidents for different industrial and site activities and to identify the most efficient intervention measures that can be taken to reduce risks. The application of FAP to two Italian industrial plant allowed the validation of the procedure. It can be seen how FAP should be considered easy to use for any type of company, with the only requirement of having a sufficient and homogeneous number of accidents recorded, so as to be able to correctly tune the reference parameters of the fuzzy methodology.