Water quality trends at inflows to Everglades National Park, 1977-2005

Restoration of the Florida Everglades is important for the health of the natural system, including both the "River of Grass" and its downstream estuaries. Water quality improvement is one indicator of successful restoration in this complex ecosystem. Using the period of record of 1977 through 2005, we evaluated data from seven inflow sites to the Everglades National Park (ENP) for temporal trends of various forms of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) and analyzed them using principal component analysis and factor analysis without flow adjustments. Locally estimated scatter plot smoothing (LOESS) trend lines identified two inflection points (three time periods) of changing trend in total P (TP) concentration at the seven sites. Results indicated that overall water quality in ENP inflow improved from 1977 to 2005, with significant downward trends in TP concentration. The overall trend ofTP is probably mediated by hydrology, which is evident by a negative relationship between flow and annual average TP concentration at the majority of stations within the available data, although additional changes in vegetation due to hydroperiod may have some effects. Total N (TN), total Kjeldahl N, and total organic N concentrations also generally decreased at inflow sites. Water quality standards for TP, TN, and NH4+ -N were exceeded at selected sites during the study period. Principle component analysis and factor analysis detected a grouping of sampling sites related to the water delivery system that could be used as indicators to better manage monitoring resources. Study results suggest that water quality data analyses could provide additional insight into the success of a restoration management plan and on how monitoring may be modified for more efficient use ofresources.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

Change point analysis of phosphorus trends in the Illinois River (Oklahoma) demonstrates the effects of watershed management

Detecting water quality improvements following watershed management changes is complicated by flow-dependent concentrations and nonlinear or threshold responses that are difficult to detect with traditional statistical techniques. In this study, we evaluated the long-term trends (1997-2009) in total P (TP) concentrations in the Illinois River of Oklahoma, and some of its major tributaries, using flow-adjusted TP concentrations and regression tree analysis to identify specific calendar dates in which change points in P trends may have occurred. Phosphorus concentrations at all locations were strongly correlated with stream flow. Flow-adjusted TP concentrations increased at all study locations in the late 1990s, but this trend was related to a change in monitoring practices where storm flow samples were specifically targeted after 1998. Flow-adjusted TP concentrations decreased in the two Illinois River sites after 2003. This change coincided with a significant decrease in effluent TP concentrations originating with one of the largest municipal wastewater treatment facilities in the basin. Conversely, flow-adjusted TP concentrations in one tributary increased, but this stream received treated effluent from a wastewater facility where effluent TP did not decrease significantly over the study period. Results of this study demonstrate how long-term trends in stream TP concentrations are difficult to quantify without consistent long-term monitoring strategies and how flow adjustment is likely mandatory for examining these trends. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how detecting changes in long-term water quality data sets requires statistical methods capable of identifying change point and nonlinear responses.     

Factors Affecting Sediment Oxygen Demand Dynamics in Blackwater Streams of Georgia’s Coastal Plain1

Abstract: Sediment oxygen demand (SOD) is believed to be an important process affecting dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in blackwater streams of the southeastern coastal plain. Because very few data on SOD are available, it is common for modelers to take SOD values from the literature for use with DO models. In this study, SOD was measured in seven blackwater streams of the Suwannee River Basin within the Georgia coastal plain for between August 2004 and April 2005. SOD was measured using four in situ chambers and was found to vary on average between 0.1 and 2.3 g O₂/m/day across the seven study sites throughout the study period. SOD was found to vary significantly between the watersheds within the Suwannee River Basin. However, land use was not found to be the driving force behind SOD values. Statistical analyses did find significant interaction between land use and watersheds suggesting that an intrinsically different factor in each of the watersheds may be affecting SOD and the low DO concentrations. Further research is needed to identify the factors driving SOD dynamics in the blackwater streams of Georgia’s coastal plain. Results from this study will be used by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources – Environmental Protection Division as model input data for the development and evaluation of DO total maximum daily loads in the Georgia coastal plain.     

区域声环境质量污染水平预测方法评价与对比研究

为完成北京市“十二五”城市区域的主要声污染防治工作目标,全面提高北京市声环境质量水平,科学预测区域内在“十二五”期间噪声污染水平和发展趋势,本文以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,运用指数平滑法与灰色模型GM（1,1）对所选定研究区域的噪声污染水平与发展趋势进行预测与分析。研究结果表明：运用指数平滑法与灰色模型对研究区域声环境噪声污染预测是可行的,北京市在“十二五”期间声环境质量水平符合《声环境质量标准》（GB3096—2008）中的一类区域标准。     

Surface water quality and its control in a river with intensive human impacts–a case study of the Xiangjiang River,China

Surface water quality and its natural and anthropogenic controls in the Xiangjiang River were investigated using multivariate statistical approaches and a comprehensive observation dataset collected from 2004 to 2008. Cluster analysis (CA) grouped the 15 different sampling stations into five clusters with similar hydrochemistry characteristics and pollution levels. Four principal components (PCs), nutrients, heavy metals, natural components, and organic components, were extracted from the entire dataset. Comparison of the different regional characteristics of these four PCs revealed a decreasing trend for heavy metals and an increasing trend for organic factor on an annual scale, and the seasonal trend was only observed for natural factor. We also conducted analysis of variance (ANOVA) in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) to quantify the relative contribution of spatial and temporal variations to each of the four PCs. The results revealed that 62% of the contributions from the spatial sites were responsible for variations in heavy metals, while 83% of the contributions from the sampling time were responsible for natural variations observed. However, no significant spatial or temporal contributions were found to be responsible for the nutrient and organic variations. Finally, some suggestions regarding water management were put forward based on the current status and future trends of surface water quality in the Xiangjiang River.     

RESEARCH: Comparison of Temporal Trends in Ambient and Compliance Trace Element and PCB Data in Pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, 1985–1995

6+ ), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Water-column, bed-sediment, and fish-tissue (fillets) data collected by five government agencies comprised the ambient data set; effluent data from five registered facilities comprised the compliance data set. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that 33% of temporal trends in all data were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Possible reasons for this were low sample sizes, and a high percentage of samples below the analytical detection limit. Trends in compliance data were more distinct; most trace elements decreased significantly, probably due to improvements in wastewater treatment. Seven trace elements (Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn) had statistically significant decreases in wastewater and portions of either or both ambient water and bed sediment. No trends were found in fish tissue. Inconsistency in trends between ambient and compliance data were often found for individual constituents, making overall similarity between the data sets difficult to determine. Logistical differences in monitoring programs, such as varying field and laboratory methods among agencies, made it difficult to assess ambient temporal trends.     

Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia

In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (σ1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed σ1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision-making process, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in the final decision. This approach is applicable to the study of risks in other pipeline systems.     

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an “historic” scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an “existing” scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a “demographic futures” scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region’s changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LONG-TERM STREAM TEMPERATURES ON THE STEAMBOAT CREEK BASIN,OREGON: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND FISH HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD MAGNITUDES ON SMALL STREAMS IN GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type HI analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant. Comparison of regression-estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years (1966 to 1985) and 10 years (1976 to 1985) of record at different sites of annual peak record indicate that the regression-estimates are not significantly different from the observed data. Comparison of rainfall-runoff-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 10 years and 20 years of annual peak record indicated that the model-simulated estimates are significantly and not significantly different, respectively. The biasedness probably is due to a “loss of variance” in the averaging procedures used within the model and the short length of record as indicated in the 10 and 20 years of record. The comparison of map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff indicate that the simulated estimates are not significantly different. Comparison of “improved” map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff data indicate that the simulated estimates are different. The average adjustment factor suggested by Lichty and Liscum to calculate the “improved” map-model overestimates in Georgia by an average of 20 percent for three recurrence intervals analyzed.     

IMPACT OF VARIED DATA RESOLUTION ON HYDRAULIC MODELING AND FLOODPLAIN DELINEATION1

ABSTRACT: Current data collection technologies such as light detection and ranging (LIDAR) produce dense digital terrain data that result in more accurate digital terrain models (DTMs) for engineering applications. However, such data are redundant and often cumbersome for hydrologic and hydraulic modeling purposes. Data filtering provides a means of eliminating redundant points and facilitates model preparation. This paper demonstrates the impact of varied data resolution on a case study completed for a 2.3 mi² area with mild slopes (about 001 ft/ft) along Leith Creek near Laurinburg, North Carolina. For the original data set and seven filtered data sets, filtering induced changes in elevation, area, and hydraulic radius were determined for 10 water depths at 23 cross sections. Water surface elevations resulting from HEC‐RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center‐River Analysis System) models for each data set were then compared. A hydraulic model sensitivity analysis was also conducted to compare filtering error to error introduced by variation in flow rates and roughness values. Finally, automated floodplain delineation was performed for each filter level based on the computed hydraulic model results and the filtered LIDAR elevations. Data filtering results indicate that significant time savings are achieved throughout the modeling process and that filtering to four degrees can be performed without compromising cross‐sectional geometry, hydraulic model results, or floodplain delineation results.     

WATER QUALITY TRENDS AT INFLOWS TO EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK1

ABSTRACT: Water quality data collected at inflows to Everglades National Park (ENP) are analyzed for trends using the seasonal Kendall test (Hirsch et al., 1982; Hirsch and Slack, 1984). The period of record is 1977–1989 for inflows to Shark River Slough and 1983–1989 for inflows to Taylor Slough and ENP's Coastal Basin. The analysis considers 20 water quality components, including nutrients, field measurements, inorganic species, and optical properties. Significant (p<0.10) increasing trends in total phosphorus concentration are indicated at eight out of nine stations examined. When the data are adjusted to account for variations in antecedent rainfall and water surface elevation, increasing trends are indicated at seven out of nine stations. Phosphorus trend magnitudes range from 4 percent/year to 21 percent/year Decreasing trends in the Total N/P ratio are detected at seven out of nine stations. N/P trend magnitudes range from -7 percent/year to -15 percent/year. Trends in water quality components other than nutrients are observed less frequently and are of less importance from a water-quality-management perspective. The apparent nutrient trends are not explained by variations in marsh water elevation, antecedent rainfall, flow, or season.     

LABORATORY AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION OF LONGITUDINAL DISPERSION IN OPEN CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT: The non-Fickian nature of the longitudinal dispersion in natural channels during low flow has been investigated using both laboratory experiments and the numerical solution of the proposed mathematical model which is based on a set of mass balance equations describing the dispersion and mass exchange mechanisms. Laboratory experiments, which involved collection of channel geometry, hydraulic, and dye dispersion test data, were conducted to obtain sets of experimental data on a model of four pool and riffle sequences in a 161-ft long tilting flume in the Hydrosystems Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The experimental results indicate that flow over the model pool-riffle sequences is highly nonuniform. Concentration-time curves are significantly skewed with long tails. The mixing and dispersion in the laboratory channel was simulated using a numerical solution of the mathematical model in which the finite difference method developed by Stone and Brian (1963) was used as a solution technique. The comparison between measured and predicted concentration-time curves shows that there is a good level of agreement in the general shape, peak concentration, and time to peak. The proposed model shows significant improvement over the conventional Fickian model in predicting dispersion processes in natural channels under low flow conditions.     

Using growth curves to forecast long-term trends for processed raw materials

The methods of using growth curves in the economic field to forecast consumption and market developments have been based on the ‘black box’ principle in most of the published cases and have therefore failed to produce reliable results in the medium and long term. This paper introduces an engineering approach for forecasting long-term trends pertaining to the use of processed raw materials. The forecasting is performed by means of a newly developed growth model. To prove the usefulness and validity of the model presented, long-term trends have been calculated for various processed raw materials, such as nickel, platinum and steel.     

Waste management with recourse: An inexact dynamic programming model containing fuzzy boundary intervals in objectives and constraints

The existing inexact optimization methods based on interval-parameter linear programming can hardly address problems where coefficients in objective functions are subject to dual uncertainties. In this study, a superiority–inferiority-based inexact fuzzy two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (SI-IFTMILP) model was developed for supporting municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The developed SI-IFTMILP approach is capable of tackling dual uncertainties presented as fuzzy boundary intervals (FuBIs) in not only constraints, but also objective functions. Uncertainties expressed as a combination of intervals and random variables could also be explicitly reflected. An algorithm with high computational efficiency was provided to solve SI-IFTMILP. SI-IFTMILP was then applied to a long-term waste management case to demonstrate its applicability. Useful interval solutions were obtained. SI-IFTMILP could help generate dynamic facility-expansion and waste-allocation plans, as well as provide corrective actions when anticipated waste management plans are violated. It could also greatly reduce system-violation risk and enhance system robustness through examining two sets of penalties resulting from variations in fuzziness and randomness. Moreover, four possible alternative models were formulated to solve the same problem; solutions from them were then compared with those from SI-IFTMILP. The results indicate that SI-IFTMILP could provide more reliable solutions than the alternatives.     

Seasonality of selected surface water constituents in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida

Seasonality is often the major exogenous effect that must be compensated for or removed to discern trends in water quality. Our objective was to provide a methodological example of trend analysis using water quality data with seasonality. Selected water quality constituents from 1979 to 2004 at three monitoring stations in southern Florida were evaluated for seasonality. The seasonal patterns of flow-weighted and log-transformed concentrations were identified by applying side-by-side boxplots and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p < 0.05). Seasonal and annual trends were determined by trend analysis (Seasonal Kendall or Tobit procedure) using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Estimate TREND (ESTREND) program. Major water quality indicators (specific conductivity, turbidity, color, and chloride), except for turbidity at Station C24S49, exhibited significant seasonal patterns. Almost all nutrient species (NO(2)-N, NH(4)-N, total Kjeldahl N, PO(4)-P, and total P) had an identical seasonal pattern of concentrations significantly greater in the wet than in the dry season. Some water quality constituents were observed to exhibit significant annual or seasonal trends. In some cases, the overall annual trend was insignificant while opposing trends were present in different seasons. By evaluating seasonal trends separately from all data, constituents can be assessed providing a more accurate interpretation of water quality trends.     

VELOCITY EQUATION FOR WATER QUALITY MODELING IN GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: Tabletop water quality modeling still plays an important role in the water pollution control activities of the Georgia Environmental Protection Division. Tabletop models are those developed with out the aid of extensive field data. One important component of GEORGIA DOSAG, our basic water quality model, is the equation used to predict flow through velocity. However, Georgia is characterized by wide physiographic diversity which reduces the effectiveness of uncalibrated velocity equations. Using 15 years of accumulated time-of-travel studies, a series of empirical velocity equations were developed and calibrated to various physiographic conditions in Georgia. Equations are available for each major soil province and for three stream flow ranges within each province - Q<100 cfs, 100<Q<1000 cfs, and Q>1000 cfs. Now, in the absence of extensive field data, we have data based velocity equations which can be tailored to each site under study.     

Effects of Antecedent Streamflow and Sample Timing on Trend Assessments of Fish,Invertebrate, and Diatom Communities

Detecting trends in biological attributes is central to many stream monitoring programs; however, understanding how natural variability in environmental factors affects trend results is not well understood. We evaluated the influence of antecedent streamflow and sample timing (covariates) on trend estimates for fish, invertebrate, and diatom taxa richness and biological condition from 2002 to 2012 at 51 sites distributed across the conterminous United States. A combination of linear regression and Kendall‐tau test for trends were used to evaluate covariate influence on trend estimates. Adjusting for covariates changed the magnitude of trend estimates in two‐thirds of cases on average by 21%, most often reducing the estimated magnitude of the trend. Additionally, covariates influenced the interpretation of over one‐third of trend estimates by either strengthening or weakening trends after adjustment. Our findings clearly indicate that antecedent streamflow and sample timing influences trend estimates and subsequent interpretation. Accounting for covariates during trend analysis will enhance stream monitoring programs by providing a better understanding and interpretation of estimated changes in biological endpoints at monitored sites. Failure to account for antecedent streamflow and sample timing may lead to mischaracterization of a trend and/or misunderstanding of potential causes.     

Dynamic emergy evaluation of a fish farm rearing process

The environmental sustainability of a fish farm rearing process was examined by means of emergy analysis. Many emergy analyses integrate data for a whole year smoothing short term variations and sometimes losing meaningful information (aliasing). For this reason we developed a model for an instantaneous emergy evaluation in an aquacultural system so that transformities, efficiency and effort spent at each moment during the fish rearing activity could be calculated. By means of the model and dynamic emergy calculations it is possible to recognize step by step the importance of the various emergy contributions and verify where and when to modify the system to move toward optimum production of a sustainable product. By the application of the model we confirmed that the emergy trends in a fish farm installation follow wide oscillations during a year due to variations in both internal and external emergy contributions. Among the fluxes considered, those due to the introduction of fingerlings represented the highest contributions to the total emergy budget. Thus, to improve the sustainability of the analyzed system the amount, frequency and timing of these fluxes must be carefully considered. For this purpose, a comparison between two different fry introduction schedules was performed to evaluate differences in the efficiency of the rearing process.