Water Quality Signals from Rural Land Use and Exurbanization in a Mountain Landscape: What's Clear and What's Confounded?

In mountainous landscapes with high climatic and geomorphic variability, how do rural land uses and exurbanization alter hydrology and water quality? We evaluated effects of rural land use and exurbanization on streamflows, suspended sediment concentrations and loads, specific conductance, and summer water temperatures in 12 streams and rivers within the Upper Little Tennessee River basin in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Eleven streams featured low levels of development (>61% forest cover) but differed in land use patterning, basin size, annual precipitation, and watershed morphology. One urban stream, located within the largest town in the basin, provided the high development comparative endpoint. Even low levels of rural development and exurbanization were associated with substantial increases in suspended sediment concentrations, sediment loads, and summer stream temperature daily maxima and diurnal variation. Observed summer temperature increases were much larger than would be expected due to global climate change over the next century. Specific conductance was idiosyncratic among the smaller streams. These water quality changes were not accompanied by streamflow changes that were discernible amid the high natural variation in precipitation and geomorphology. The water quality findings suggest the need for applying the best management practices, including riparian buffers, to even low levels of rural development.     

Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial‐Nival Watershed,Japan1

Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year‐round, including rain‐on‐snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree‐day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid‐February to mid‐March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites.     

TRANSPORT OF SEDIMENT-BOUND ORGANOCHLORINE PESTICIDES TO THE SAN JOAQUIN RWER,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Suspended sediment samples were collected in west-side tributaries and the main stem of the San Joaquin River, California, in June 1994 during the irrigation season and in January 1995 during a winter storm. These samples were analyzed for 15 organochiorine pesticides to determine their occurrence and their concentrations on suspended sediment and to compare transport during the irrigation season (April to September) to transport during winter storm runoff (October to March). Ten organochiorine pesticides were detected during the winter storm runoff; seven during the irrigation season. The most frequently detected organochlorine pesticides during both sampling periods were p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, dieldrin, toxaphene, and chiordane. Dissolved samples were analyzed for three organochiorine pesticides during the irrigation season and for 15 during the winter storm. Most calculated total concentrations of p,p-DDT, chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. At eight sites in common between sampling periods, suspended sediment concentrations and streamfiow were greater during the winter storm runoff - median concentration of 3,590 mg/L versus 489 mg(L and median streamfiow of 162 ft³/s versus 11 ft³/s. Median concentrations of total DDT (sum of p,p'-DDD, p,p-DDE, and p,p'-DDT), chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene on suspended sediment were slightly greater during the irrigation season, but instantaneous loads of organochlorine pesticides at the time of sampling were substantially greater during the winter storm. Estimated loads for the entire irrigation season exceeded estimated loads for the January 1995 storm by about 2 to 4 times for suspended transport and about 3 to 11 times for total transport. However, because the mean annual winter runoff is about 2 to 4 times greater than the runoff during the January 1995 storm, mean winter transport may be similar to irrigation season transport. This conclusion is tentative primarily because of insufficient information on long-term seasonal variations in suspended sediment and organochlorine concentrations. Nevertheless, runoff from infrequent winter storms will continue to deliver a significant load of sediment-bound organochiorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River even if irrigation-induced sediment transport is reduced. As a result, concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in San Joaquin River biota will continue to be relatively high compared to other regions of the United States.     

From agricultural intensification to conservation: sediment transport in the Raccoon River, Iowa, 1916-2009

Fluvial sediment is a ubiquitous pollutant that negatively affects surface water quality and municipal water supply treatment. As part of its routine water supply monitoring, the Des Moines Water Works (DMWW) has been measuring turbidity daily in the Raccoon River since 1916. For this study, we calibrated daily turbidity readings to modern total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations to develop an estimation of daily sediment concentrations in the river from 1916 to 2009. Our objectives were to evaluate long-term TSS patterns and trends, and relate these to changes in climate, land use, and agricultural practices that occurred during the 93-yr monitoring period. Results showed that while TSS concentrations and estimated sediment loads varied greatly from year to year, TSS concentrations were much greater in the early 20th century despite drier conditions and less discharge, and declined throughout the century. Against a backdrop of increasing discharge in the Raccoon River and widespread agricultural adaptations by farmers, sediment loads increased and peaked in the early 1970s, and then have slowly declined or remained steady throughout the 1980s to present. With annual sediment load concentrated during extreme events in the spring and early summer, continued sediment reductions in the Raccoon River watershed should be focused on conservation practices to reduce rainfall impacts and sediment mobilization. Overall, results from this study suggest that efforts to reduce sediment load from the watershed appear to be working.     

Projections of 21st Century Sierra Nevada Local Hydrologic Flow Components Using an Ensemble of General Circulation Models1

Abstract: Sierra Nevada snowmelt and runoff is a key source of water for many of California’s 38 million residents and nearly the entire population of western Nevada. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of expected 21st Century climatic changes in the Sierra Nevada at the subwatershed scale, for all hydrologic flow components, and for a suite of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated at 35 unimpaired streamflow sites. Results show that temperatures are projected to increase throughout the Sierra Nevada, whereas precipitation projections vary between GCMs. These climatic changes drive a decrease in average annual streamflow and an advance of snowmelt and runoff by several weeks. The largest streamflow reductions were found in the mid‐range elevations due to less snow accumulation, whereas the higher elevation watersheds were more resilient due to colder temperatures. Simulation results showed that decreases in snowmelt affects not only streamflow, but evapotranspiration, surface, and subsurface flows, such that less water is available in spring and summer, thus potentially affecting aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Declining spring and summer flows did not equally affect all subwatersheds in the region, and the subwatershed perspective allowed for identification for the most sensitive basins throughout the Sierra Nevada.     

Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.     

Thirty-year trends in suspended sediment in seven Lake Erie tributaries

Sediment is an important pollutant for Lake Erie and its tributaries as a carrier of other substances and as a pollutant in its own right. Environmental managers have called for major reductions in sediment loadings in Lake Erie tributaries. In this study, 30-yr (1975-2005) datasets with daily resolution are analyzed to identify and interpret trends in sediment concentrations and loads in major US tributaries to Lake Erie. The Maumee and Sandusky Rivers in agricultural northwest Ohio show continual decreases throughout this period, but the River Raisin shows increases, especially in the last decade. The urban and forested Cuyahoga River shows little trend before 2000 but shows increases since then. The mostly forested Grand River shows strong decreases before 1995, little change thereafter until the early 2000s, and then increases. In most cases, the greatest decreases or smallest increases, depending on the river, are associated with summer and fall and with low flow conditions, whereas the smallest decreases or greatest increases are associated with the spring and with high flow conditions. Analysis of concentration-flow relationships indicates that these changes are not due to weather but reflect positive and negative anthropogenic influences. Sediment decreases in the northwestern Ohio tributaries seem to reflect the successful use of agricultural practices to reduce erosion and prevent sediment loss. Opportunities for further reductions in sediment loads and concentrations lie in better management of sediment losses during winter and spring.     

RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD UNDER GRAZING IN FOOTHILLS FESCUE GRASSLANDS OF ALBERTA1

ABSTRACT: Grazing can have a profound impact on infiltration and thus runoff and erosion. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effects of select grazing systems on rainfall and snowmelt induced runoff and sediment yield from sloped areas of the foothills fescue grasslands of Alberta, Canada. The effects of two grazing intensities (heavy and very heavy) for two durations (short duration and continuous throughout the growing season) were compared to an ungrazed control between June 1988 and April 1991. Runoff was measured using 1-rn² runoff frames and collection bucket systems. Sediment yields were then determined on samples from the collected runoff. Snowmelt was the dominant source of runoff. Snowmelt runoff was higher from the heavily grazed areas than from the very heavily grazed areas, due to the higher standing vegetation which accumulated snow in the former areas. Sediment yields as a result of snowmelt were generally low in all areas. Only a few summer storms caused runoff. Runoff volumes and sediment yields from summer rainstorms were low, due to low rainfall and to generally dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. The greatest risk of summer runoff, and thus sediment yield, appears to occur in August.     

Modeling Postfire Response and Recovery using the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS)1

Abstract: This paper investigates application of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS) to a burned watershed in San Bernardino County, California. We evaluate the HEC‐HMS’ ability to simulate discharge in prefire and postfire conditions in a semi arid watershed and the necessary parameterizations for modeling hydrologic response during the immediate, and subsequent recovery, period after a wildfire. The model is applied to City Creek watershed, which was 90% burned during the Old Fire of October 2003. An optimal spatial resolution for the HEC‐HMS model was chosen based on an initial sensitivity analysis of subbasin configurations and related model performance. Five prefire storms were calibrated for the selected model resolution, defining a set of parameters that reasonably simulate prefire conditions. Six postfire storms, two from each of the following rainy (winter) seasons were then selected to simulate postfire response and evaluate relative changes in parameter values and model behavior. There were clear trends in the postfire parameters [initial abstractions (I_a), curve number (CN), and lag time] that reveal significant (and expected) changes in watershed behavior. CN returns to prefire (baseline) values by the end of Year 2, while I_a approaches baseline by the end of the third rainy season. However, lag time remains significantly lower than prefire values throughout the three‐year study period. Our results indicate that recovery of soil conditions and related runoff response is not entirely evidenced by the end of the study period (three rainy seasons postfire). Understanding the evolution of the land surface and related hydrologic properties during the highly dynamic postfire period, and accounting for these changes in model parameterizations, will allow for more accurate and reliable discharge simulations in both the immediate, and subsequent, rainy seasons following fire.     

A HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RED RWER OF THE NORTH SNOWMELT FLOOD CATASTROPHE OF 19971

ABSTRACT: The flood hydroclimatology of the Grand Forks flood of April 1997, the most costly flood on a per capita basis for a major metropolitan area in United States history, is analyzed in terms of the natural processes that control spring snowmelt flooding in the region. The geomorphological characteristics of the basin are reviewed, and an integrated assessment of the hydroclimatological conditions during the winter of 1996 to 1997 is presented to gain a real‐world understanding of the physical basis of this catastrophic flood event. The Grand Forks flood resulted from the principal flood‐producing factors occurring at either historic or extreme levels, or at levels conducive to severe flooding. Above normal fall precipitation increased the fall soil moisture storage and reduced the spring soil moisture storage potential. A concrete frost layer developed that effectively reduced the soil infiltration capacity to zero. Record snowfall totals and snow cover depths occurred across the basin because of the unusual persistence of a blocking high circulation pattern throughout the winter. A severe, late spring blizzard delayed the snowmelt season and replenished the snow cover to record levels for early April. This blizzard was followed by a sudden transition to an extreme late season thaw due to the abrupt breakdown of the blocking circulation pattern. The presence of river ice contributed to backwater effects and affected the timing of tributary inflows to the main stem of the Red River. Only the absence of spring rains prevented an even more catastrophic flood disaster from taking place. This paper contributes to our understanding of the flood hydroclimatology of catastrophic flood events in an unusual flood hazard region that possesses relatively flat terrain, a north‐flowing river, and an annual peak discharge time series dominated by spring snowmelt floods.     

A MONTE CARLO TEST OF LOAD CALCULATION METHODS,LAKE TAHOE BASIN,CALIFORNIA‐NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: The sampling of streams and estimation of total loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment play an important role in efforts to control the eutrophication of Lake Tahoe. We used a Monte Carlo procedure to test the precision and bias of four methods of calculating total constituent loads for nitrate‐nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment in one major tributary of the lake. The methods tested were two forms of the Beale's Ratio Estimator, the Period Weighted Sample, and the Rating Curve. Intensive sampling in 1985 (a dry year) and 1986 (a wet year) provided a basis for estimating loads by the “worked record” method for comparison with estimates based on resampling actual data at the lower intensity that characterizes the present monitoring program. The results show that: (1) the Period Weighted Sample method was superior to the other methods for all constituents for 1985; and (2) for total phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, and suspended sediment, the Rating Curve gave the best results in 1986. Modification of the present sampling program and load calculation methods may be necessary to improve the precision and reduce the bias of estimates of total phosphorus loads in basin streams.     

RUNOFF,EROSION, AND SOLUTES IN THE LOWER TRUCKEE RIVER,NEVADA, DURING 19691

The Truckee River heads in the Sierra Nevada at Lake Tahoe, and terminates in Pyramid Lake. During the 1969 water year, flow about 9 miles upstream from the mouth (974,000 acre-ft) was almost four times the long-term average, due mainly to heavy winter rains and spring snowmelt. A short period of low-altitude rainfall produced the highest concentrations of suspended sediment, whereas a much longer subsequent period of snowmelt yielded a much greater total quantity of material. The upper 90 percent of the basin yielded about 260 acre-feet (630,000 tons) of sediment at the Nixon gage, whereas an estimated 2,800 acre-feet (6.8 million tons) was contributed by erosion of about 200 acres of river bank below the gage. Solute content at the gage ranged from 80 to 450 mg/l, dominated by calcium, sodium, and bicarbonate, plus silica in the most dilute snowmelt and chloride in the most concentrated low flows. Solute load totaled about 130,000 tons, of which the principal constituents in Pyramid Lake-sodium plus equivalent bicarbonate and chloride-amounted to almost 40,000 tons. The total solute load during a year of average flow may be 45,000-55,000 tons, including 18,000-22,000 tons of principal lake constituents.     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN A SHALLOW COASTAL ESTUARY DURING THE WINTER SEASON1

ABSTRACT: This project analyzes suspended sediment flux through the upper Barataria basin in Louisiana during the winter season defined from November through April. The Barataria is a shallow coastal estuary located in southeastern Louisiana. The controls exerted by environmental parameters (such as wind or atmospheric pressure) in wetlands‐shallow bay ecosystems on transport of water and sediment were examined. Water samples were taken at a bayou (which serve as the inlet for flow to the estuary) on a regular basis. These samples were analyzed for total suspended solids and volatile suspended solids. Velocity, depth, temperature, salinity, conductivity, and meteorological measurements were all recorded at the time of each sampling. A multi‐parameter field probe was employed to continually monitor turbidity, water level, conductivity, and temperature during frontal events. These data were used in a regression analysis to examine the factors that drive carbon flux in the region. Investigations have determined that synoptic climate and prevailing weather conditions explain much of the variations in water levels, flow circulation patterns, salinity, and suspended sediment. Relatively small amounts of sediment appear to leave the estuary during normal tidal activity, but winter storm fronts result in significant fluxes of sediment in both up‐basin and down‐basin directions.     

SUSPENDED SEDIMENT AND TURBIDITY FOLLOWING ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND LOGGING IN WESTERN MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Forest management activities in a second order drainage basin increased suspended sediment yields 7.7 fold in the first year following road construction, and two-fold following logging in the second year. Sediment supply limitations resulted in poor correlations between sediment concentrations with discharge. Sediment transport was strongly hysteretic, with the highest sediment concentrations occurring on the rising limbs of snowmelt hydrographs and individual peaks. In addition to discharge, hydrograph characteristics such as limb, dQ/dt, and the product of dQ/dt and limb aided in explaining variability of observed sediment concentrations. Sediment-turbidity relationships were strongly discharge dependent, reflecting the changing composition of the suspended load with stream power and sediment supplies.     

Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed,Montana, U.S.A.1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ～85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.     

DISCHARGE AND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT PATTERNS OF AN INTERMITTENT COLD DESERT STREAM1

Sage Creek in south‐central Wyoming is listed as impaired by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) due to its sediment contribution to the North Platte River. Despite the magnitude of sediment impacts on streams, little research has been conducted to characterize patterns of sediment transport or to model suspended sediment concentration in many arid western U.S. streams. This study examined the relationship between stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration near the Sage Creek and North Platte River confluence from 1998 through 2003. The objectives were to determine patterns of stream discharge and suspended sediment concentration, produce a sediment prediction model, and compare sediment concentrations for the six‐year period. Stream discharge and suspended sediment transport responded rapidly to convective storms and spring runoff events. During the study period, events exceeding 0.23 m³/s accounted for 92 percent of the sediment load, which is believed to originate from erodible headwater uplands. Further analysis of these data indicates that time series modeling is superior to simple linear regression in predicting sediment concentration. Significant increases in suspended sediment concentration occurred in all years except 2003. This analysis suggests that a six‐year monitoring record was insufficient to factor out impacts from climate, geology, and historical sediment storage.     

REVISITING THE DEGREE-DAY METHOD FOR SNOWMELT COMPUTATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The simple, empirical degree-day approach for calculating snowmelt and runoff from mountain basins has been in use for more than 60 years. It is frequently suggested that the degree-day method be replaced by the more physically-based energy balance approach. The degree-day approach, however, maintains its popularity, applicability, and effectiveness. It is shown that the degree-day method is reliable for computing total snowmelt depths for periods of a week to the entire snowmelt season. It can also be used for daily snowmelt depths when utilized in connection with an adequate snowmelt runoff model for computing the basin runoff. The degree-day ratio is shown to vary seasonally as opposed to being constant as is often assumed. Additionally, in order to evaluate the degree-day ratio correctly, the changing snow cover extent in a basin during the snowmelt season must be taken into account. It is also possible to combine the degree-day approach with a radiation component so that short time interval (<24 hours) computations of snowmelt depth can be made. When snowmelt input is transformed to basin output (runoff) by a snowmelt runoff model, there is little difference between the degree-day approach and a radiation-based approach. This is fortuitous because the physically-based energy balance models will not soon displace the degree-day methods because of their excessive data requirements.     

The effects of sediment-laden waters on irrigated lands along the lower Yellow River in China

Expansion of irrigation in the Yellow River (Huang He in Chinese) Basin of China is a major accomplishment of the post-revolutionary period in China. Irrigation reliance on the Yellow River was anticipated to not only supply greater reliability of water for crops, but also to improve the productivity of aeolian, saline and alkali soils because of the high sediment loads in the river. Irrigation expansion also was a significant factor in affecting human modification of the landscape ecosystem in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. Based on field investigation and sampling of the amount and distribution of used suspended sediment load in irrigated areas, this paper analyzes the impact of the suspended sediment on soil texture, fertility and salinity and the consequences to the landscape ecosystem. Results indicate that soil quality has indeed been improved through irrigation and related deposition of sediment, but some local problems created by long periods of irrigation should not be ignored in the future.     

Sources of sediment and phosphorus in stream flow of a highly productive dairy farmed catchment

Both sediment and phosphorus (P) are important contaminants for surface water quality. Knowing the main sources of sediment and P loss within agricultural catchments enables mitigation practices to be better targeted. With this in mind seasonal loads of suspended sediment (SS), dissolved reactive P (DRP), total P (TP), and bioavailable P (BAP) were measured in a low gradient stream draining an intensively farmed New Zealand dairying catchment. Integrating in situ samplers were deployed to collect samples and the results merged with continuous flow data to calculate seasonal loads during 2005 through 2006. Flow rate, SS, and TP concentrations peaked in winter-spring and were lowest in summer-autumn. Concentrations of BAP in trapped sediment were greatest in autumn, contrasting with winter and spring when greater amounts of sediment were trapped, but with lower P enrichment. Analysis of (137)Cs and mixing model output showed that a major source of sediment and associated P in winter and spring was stream banks. Possible causes for this include trampling and destabilization by stock, channel straightening and sediment removal, and removal of riparian trees that stabilize banks. Modelling indicated that overland flow probably from topsoil (but could include sediment from lanes) contributed most sediment during summer and autumn. Remediation aimed at decreasing particulate P inputs to streams should focus on riparian protection measures, such as permanent stock exclusion and planting with shrubs and trees, ensuring runoff from lanes is minimized, and decreasing Olsen P to nearer optimum agronomic levels.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.