Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

Operationalising just sustainability: towards a model for place-based governance

As the concept of sustainability broadens to include social aspects, sustainability organisations must embrace strategies that allow them to more effectively address community issues and procedural concerns. Biosphere reserves (BRs) and model forests (MFs) advocate strongly for community engagement to achieve place-based sustainability; in practice, however, these organisations have had variable success in effectively engaging community residents and addressing their needs and interests. In this paper, we offer a framework for place-based governance for sustainability that is used to compare strategies used in BRs and MFs operating in the Maritime Provinces of Canada with the operations of Vibrant Communities, an anti-poverty organisation that operates locally in Saint John, New Brunswick. We draw attention to three imperatives: comprehensive understanding, community empowerment, and community-based outcomes, and five procedural drivers: local leadership, strong networks, diverse community engagement, learning together, and information sharing. Based on our results, we provide greater clarity on processes that address the imperatives and mobilise the drivers of effective place-based governance for sustainability. Our results suggest that there is a need for theory and practice to advance beyond current understandings of sustainability governance to enhance the capacity of organisations seeking to implement community-based sustainability strategies.     

Understanding climate,adapting to change: indigenous cultural values and climate change impacts in North Queensland

Many authors have suggested that Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, yet there remains a paucity of fine-grained geographic data on the particular impacts of climate change on specific places and on local communities, especially Australian Indigenous communities. While there are some recent studies being undertaken with Australia's Torres Strait Island people, our research takes up the issues of vulnerability and resilience with two Indigenous communities from different environments on the mainland in North Queensland. They are the Aboriginal peoples of the rainforest and reef environments of the Wet Tropics and the Aboriginal people of the discontiguous rainforest, grasslands, dry forests and marine environments of Cape York. The results demonstrate variability in their understandings of climate change and in their capacities to anticipate and manage its impacts, while at the same time illustrating some common held themes about environmental and cultural values, observed environmental change, attributions of cause and effect, and of climate in general.     

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

Place influences in framing and understanding climate change adaptation challenges

The climate change literature emphasises the importance of geographical understanding for guiding adaptation, in which “place” perspectives are particularly significant. After “scale”, the term “place” within the climate change adaptation literature is most often implicitly used in reference to a delineated and localised region, such as place-based risk assessment or place-based adaptation planning. Here, we use a case study of the Australian island-state of Tasmania to demonstrate the importance and particularity of place in the formation of climate change adaptation issues, problem definition and framing, and the dynamics of knowledge and praxis development across a range of research and industry sectors. We describe the significance of the place Tasmania with regard to its geographical location; its portrayal as an island place; and its cultural meaning and relations. Through a synthesis of climate change adaptation research, policy literature and engagement with researchers and stakeholders, we identify three emergent thematic place characterisations of Tasmania. We find that these characterisations have contributed directly or indirectly to the: initiation and extent of research and practical activities; the framing of adaptation issues and perspectives on potential adaptation responses in different sectors including the marine biodiversity and resources sector, small business and human health sectors. Exposing these influences is essential for focusing future adaptation activities, including research, planning, investment and practice, in Tasmania and other locations where place is a central issue.     

Governance innovations for climate change adaptation in urban Denmark

Urban areas worldwide are challenged by climate change and urban flooding. Within the academic literature, adaptive measures that can be integrated into other issues such as recreation, nature reserves, and social issues are considered the way forward. Adaptation has recently become a mandatory planning theme for Danish municipalities, which in the absence of established practices are struggling to find the best institutional set-up to address adaptation as an integrated issue. Based on a case study of an integrated project organised as a partnership, this article identifies and discusses governance challenges that must be addressed if municipalities are to benefit from synergies through integrated projects. The municipality in question has established a partnership with housing organisations, foundations, and a utility company as well as facilitated a dialogue with citizens and institutions to address flooding threats and social issues at the neighbourhood scale. Because of strong political and leadership support, funding from partners, and good project facilitation both partners and politicians are enthusiastic about the project and its potential. Several challenges, however, needed to be addressed, particularly in relation to clashing norms from different governance paradigms. This is an issue requiring more attention both in research and practice.     

Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts

In seeking to determine whether climate change mitigation strategies are effective, researchers and policy-makers typically use energy consumption as an indicator. UK government data show that energy use amongst the public is rising, despite measures to encourage energy conservation. Yet, research to date has not explicitly asked which actions the public are taking with the express intention of mitigating climate change. Using Stern's classification of impact-oriented and intent-oriented behaviour research, the research described in this paper examines both actions taken ‘out of concern for climate change’ and energy conservation practices amongst the UK public. The findings show a clear divergence between actions prescribed by policy-makers (i.e. energy conservation) and those taken by the public to mitigate climate change (e.g., recycling). Furthermore, those who take action to conserve energy generally do so for reasons unconnected to the environment (e.g., to save money). Regression analyses highlight the distinct determinants of these two behavioural categories. These findings imply that surveys using energy reduction as an indicator of public response to climate change falsely assume that these can be equated; consequently, they will provide a distorted picture of behavioural response. Possible reasons for the asymmetry of intentions and impacts, and policy implications, are discussed.     

Ecological indicators of global climate change: A research framework

Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.     

Morphologie effects of channelization: the case of the Neebing-McIntyre floodway,Thunder Bay,Ontario, Canada

The Neebing-McIntyre floodway in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, has been constructed with a relatively straight and uniform trapezoidal channel, compared with the prechannelized sinuous reaches of the Neebing and the McIntyre rivers. The flow regime of the floodway also contrasts significantly with the prechannelized regime, because of the combination of discharges from these rivers into a new channel and the regulation of flows by a diversion structure. The maximum channel capacity of the floodway is about 284 m³ s^–1 (175-year regional flood), compared with about 40 m³ s^–1 and 60 m³ s^–1, respectively, for the Neebing and the McIntyre. According to regime theories, the construction of a straight and trapezoidal channel has upset the equilibrium of the stream system and therefore should lead to some accelerated erosion and sedimentation processes in the new channel immediately after construction. Erosion potential is particularly high during higher discharge events, when flow velocities are expected to be greater than the prechannelized velocities of the Neebing and the McIntyre. The overall sediment yield of the watershed is low (71t km^–2 yr^–1), compared with other documented watersheds of North America, but the rates of deposition in the floodway are relatively high, mainly due to the backwater effect of Lake Superior. Unless maintained by constant channel work, the floodway will tend to fill up with sediment, until a postconstructional equilibrium is reestablished.     

The impact of climate change on the benefit of a rain barrel sharing network

The assessment of the impact of climate change depends not only on quantitative changes in precipitation but also system characteristics that can be changed and enhanced. This study investigated the effect of building the shared network of a rainwater harvesting system as an adaptation to climate change scenarios. The performance of a rain barrel network under three climate change scenarios and three global circulation models (GCM) is examined. A sample community composed of four prospective users with individual storage is tested with various forms of shared connections. Most importantly, the results show that the benefit from shared rain barrels greatly increases under the climate change conditions compared with the historical rainfall data. Especially, for high reliabilities, the results indicate that the benefit of a rain barrel network increases under future climate change scenarios, whereas it does not show apparent improvement for low reliabilities. However, the performance of a rain barrel network is highly dependent on location and climate change scenarios. In contrast, the GCM does not considerably affect the performance of the shared network. The results of this study highlight the needs to establish sharing networks of rainwater harvesting systems under the climate change conditions, which would significantly increase the benefit of the entire community.     

Carbon sequestration via afforestation as a sustainable action to mitigate climate change in Western Iran

Climate change involves increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration which is driven by anthropogenic emissions. Afforestation, which is the establishment of forests on previously non‐forested lands, could be a suitable climate change mitigation strategy. The aim of this research is to evaluate the carbon sequestration capability of the Eucalyptus and Prosopis species in the Reza‐Abad afforestation park in western Iran. For this aim, three stands of any species were selected. For quantitative assessment, a transect was implemented at the length of 100 m. In trees located of transects, the general characteristics of species were measured. Also, for estimating the amount of litter, a sample plot has been measured at the center of the quadrate. These samples were taken from the afforested area, the control area inside the afforested area and another control area outside. In each stand, species were selected randomly and one‐eighth of the whole stand was taken for calculating the percentage of carbon and aerial biomass. Then the aboveground organs were weighted and after the transfer of different plant organs to the laboratory, the conversion factor of carbon sequestration of the plant organs was determined individually by combustion method. Also, soil samples were also collected from two depths of 0–15 and 15–30 cm in each of the cultivated and control parts. The results showed that there is a significant difference between the species and Prosopis has higher carbon sequestration than Eucalyptus. The carbon sequestration among different organs showed a significant difference, carbon sequestration was 19.24 t/ha for Eucalyptus and 18.43 t/ha for Prosopis. After an economic calculation, it was concluded that afforestation has a positive effect on the reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Hence, these results allow decision makers to change land use from desert area to forest, and planting the Prosopis species is more recommendable than Eucalyptus for afforestation in such areas which are economically profitable.     

Transformational change: governance interventions for climate change adaptation from a continuous change perspective

Although transformational change is a rather new topic in climate change adaptation literature, it has been studied in organisational theory for over 30 years. This paper argues that governance scholars can learn much from organisation theory, more specifically regarding the conceptualisation of change and intervention strategies. We reconceptualise the divide between transformational change and incremental change by questioning the feasibility of changes that are concurrently in-depth, large scale, and quick; and the assumption that incremental change is necessarily slow and can only result in superficial changes. To go beyond this dichotomy, we introduce the conceptualisation of continuous transformational change. Resulting intervention strategies include (1) providing basic conditions for enabling small in-depth wins; (2) amplifying small wins through sensemaking, coupling, and integrating; and (3) unblocking stagnations by confronting social and cognitive fixations with counterintuitive interventions. These interventions necessitate a modest leadership. Governing transformational change thus requires transformation of the governance systems themselves.     

From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio‐economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less‐GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.     

National,regional and local attitudes towards climate change: identifying appropriate target audiences for communications

A government-funded scheme, the UK Climate Change Communications Initiative (UKCCCI), has provided money for organisations to deliver projects that attempt to impact positively on people's attitudes towards climate change. This devolution of communications is a relatively novel approach after previous centralised campaigns. This paper considers what size of target audience is most appropriate for attitude change initiatives. It compares data from a regional UKCCCI project aimed at residents of two counties with a nationally representative dataset. Regional data are also analysed to see if there are differences in attitudes within the two-counties target audience. The study suggests that attitude change interventions must strike a balance between personalisation of information and the higher cost of targeting smaller groups with more specific material.     

Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries.     

Transformative climate change adaptation: bridging existing approaches with post-foundational insights on justice

ABSTRACT

Climate adaptation is a complex policy domain, spanning multiple sectors, scales and actors, and wherein those most at risk have the least power. The influence of linear positivist models of science uptake are proving ineffective in a world with increasingly concentrated wealth and power, institutional barriers, and rapidly growing risks facing the many. A plurality of approaches is needed to better examine those dynamics of climate adaptation which are often invisible in models of science uptake – equity, the value of contestation, path dependency – and to consider how to empower communities to find solutions. In this conceptual paper, we argue that bridging existing positivist and interpretivist methods with insights from post-foundational theory so as to underpin pluralism and re-orient ethical principles of justice, strengthens the capacity of social research to support transformative climate adaptation. Principles are proposed to facilitate such bridging.     

Addressing climate change: Determinants of consumers' willingness to act and to support policy measures

Consumers influence climate change through their consumption patterns and their support or dismissal of climate mitigation policy measures. Both climate-friendly actions and policy support comprise a broad range of options, which vary in manifold ways and, therefore, might be influenced by different factors. The aims of the study were, therefore, two-fold: first, we intended to find a meaningful way to classify different ways of addressing climate change. Second, we aimed to examine which determinants influence people's willingness to engage in these behaviors. We conducted a large-scale mail survey in Switzerland in which respondents rated, among other items, their willingness to act or support a range of possible actions and mitigations measures. A principal component analysis indicated that a distinction in terms of a behavior's directness as well as a differentiation according to perceived costs seem to be appropriate to classify climate-friendly actions. Multiple regression analyses showed that perceived costs and perceived climate benefit turned out to be the strongest predictors for willingness to act or to support climate policy measures. The strong influence of perceived climate benefit might reflect a strategy of reducing cognitive dissonance. As high-cost behaviors are more difficult to adopt, consumers may reduce dissonance by dismissing high-cost behaviors as not effective in terms of climate mitigation. Political affiliation proved to be another strong determinant of willingness to act or support. Participants on the right wing were less willing to show indirect climate-friendly behaviors, change their mobility behaviors, and to support any type of climate mitigation policy measures. Climate-friendly low-cost behaviors, however, were not influenced by political affiliation.     

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.     

Reducing climate change gas emissions by cutting out stages in the life cycle of office paper

The paper industry's climate change gas emissions are growing. This article considers how to reduce emissions from cut-size office paper by bypassing stages in its life cycle. The options considered are: incineration, which cuts out landfill; localisation, which cuts out transport; annual fibre, which cuts out forestry and reduces pulping; fibre recycling, which cuts out landfill, forestry and pulping; un-printing, which cuts out all stages except printing; electronic-paper, which cuts out all stages. Un-printing may offer the greatest climate change emission reduction. There are uncertainties in this result, particularly in estimating the proportion of waste office paper would be suitable for un-printing.     

Environment and development in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Linking climate change with sustainable fisheries development

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a major custodian of one of the ocean's major natural resources: tuna. The commercial tuna fisheries sector is the most important economic sector in the RMI and is thus a substantial contributor to this tiny island nation's GDP. Tuna catch and its associated revenues has fluctuated in line with climatic events such as the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, in the last decade, national fisheries development policies have begun to capitalize on the positive effects that ENSO warm events have had on the tuna populations. However, global warming is expected to have a significant impact on ENSO, and not necessarily in positive ways. This paper will focus on the relationship between environment and economic development in the RMI fisheries sector. In particular, the linkages between global warming and its effects on the tuna fisheries sector must be better understood and uncertainties accounted for so that impacts are appropriately addressed and integrated into sustainable fisheries development policies. Conclusions reached are that new fisheries development strategies that emphasize environmental‐based planning are required. The emerging ecosystem‐based approach to fisheries management is a start, as are the various international initiatives in furthering our understanding of the linkages between climate and ocean systems currently underway.