Hierarchical Bayesian Spatial Models for Multispecies Conservation Planning and Monitoring

Abstract: Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence–absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site‐level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence–absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad‐scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km² hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning.     

Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains

An important element of resource management and conservation is an understanding of the tradeoffs between marketed products, such as timber, and measures of environmental quality, such as biodiversity. In this paper, we develop an integrated economic-ecological spatial optimization model that we then apply to evaluate alternate forest policies on a 560,000 km² study region of managed boreal forest in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The integrated model incorporates dynamic forest sector harvesting, current levels of oil and gas sector development, coarse-filter or habitat-based old forest indicators, a set of empirical forest bird abundance models, and statistical models of the natural and current fire regimes. Using our integrated model, economic tradeoff curves, or production possibility frontiers, are developed to illustrate the cost of achieving coarse-filter targets by a set time (50 years) within a 100-year time horizon. We found levels of ecological indicators and economic returns from the timber industry could both be increased if spatial constraints imposed by the current policy environment were relaxed; other factors being equal, this implies current policy should be revised. We explore the production possibility frontier's relationship to the range of natural variation of old forest habitat, and show how this range can be used to guide choices of preferred locations along the frontier. We also show that coarse-filter constraints on the abundance of certain habitat elements are sufficient to satisfy some fine-filter objectives, expressed as the predicted abundances of various species of songbirds.     

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.     

Effects of landscape design of forest reserves on Saproxylic beetle diversity

Increasing the density of natural reserves in the forest landscape may provide conservation benefits for biodiversity within and beyond reserve borders. We used 2 French data sets on saproxylic beetles and landscape cover of forest reserves (LCFR) to test this hypothesis: national standardized data derived from 252 assessment plots in managed and reserve stands in 9 lowland and 5 highland forests and data from the lowland Rambouillet forest, a forested landscape where a pioneer conservation policy led to creation of a dense network of reserves. Abundance of rare and common saproxylic species and total saproxylic species richness were higher in forest reserves than in adjacent managed stands only in highland forests. In the lowland regional case study, as LCFR increased total species richness and common species abundance in reserves increased. In this case study, when there were two or more reserve patches, rare species abundance inside reserves was higher and common species richness in managed stands was higher than when there was a single large reserve. Spillover and habitat amount affected ecological processes underlying these landscape reserve effects. When LCFR positively affected species richness and abundance in reserves or managed stands, >12‐20% reserve cover led to the highest species diversity and abundance. This result is consistent with the target of 17% forested land area in reserves set at the Nagoya biodiversity summit in 2010. Therefore, to preserve biodiversity we recommend at least doubling the current proportion of forest reserves in European forested landscapes.     

Spotted Owls and Old Growth Logging in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract: Northern Spotted Owls, Strix occidentalis caurina, require large tracts of old-growth conifer forest to survive and reproduce. Much of this forest has been or is being cut by commercial logging operations, with uncertain consequences for the owls. In this paper I present simulation models of owl population change over the next 100 years, as summing a variety of scenarios for habitat destruction and fragmentation. My analysis differs from previous models by incorporating patchy territory distribution and random environmental fluctuations. Fragmented and patchy habitat distributions are common problems for endangered organisms, but they have received little attention from modelers. My results indicate that yearly fluctuations in breeding success have little impact on owl populations, but that spatial structure is quite important and should be considered in planning forest preservation. The simulations suggest that for all reasonable parameter values the proposed US. Forest Service logging plans will lead to the demise of the owls.     

Incorporating consumer–resource spatial interactions in reserve design

The persistence of species in reserves depends in large part on the persistence of functional ecological interactions. Despite their importance, however, ecological interactions have not yet been explicitly incorporated into conservation prioritization methods. We develop here a general method for incorporating consumer–resource interactions into spatial reserve design. This method protects spatial consumer–resource interactions by protecting areas that maintain the connectivity between the distribution of consumers and resources. We illustrate our method with a conservation planning case study of a mammalian predator, American marten (Martes americana), and its two primary prey species, Red-backed vole (Clethrionomys rutilus) and Deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus). The conservation goal was to identify a reserve for marten that comprised 12% of a forest management unit in the boreal forest in Québec, Canada. We compared reserves developed using analysis variants that utilized different levels of information about predator and prey habitat distributions, species-specific connectivity requirements, and interaction connectivity requirements. The inclusion of consumer–resource interactions in reserve-selection resulted in spatially aggregated reserves that maintained local habitat quality for the species. This spatial aggregation was not induced by applying a qualitative penalty for the boundary length of the reserve, but rather was a direct consequence of modelling the spatial needs of the interacting consumer and resources. Our method for maintaining connectivity between consumers and their resources within reserves can be applied even under the most extreme cases of either complete spatial overlap or complete spatial segregation of consumer–resource distributions. The method has been made available via public software.     

Fragmentation effects on an endangered species across a gradient from the interior to edge of its range

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects individual species is complicated by challenges associated with quantifying species-specific habitat and spatial variability in fragmentation effects within a species’ range. We aggregated a 29-year breeding survey data set for the endangered marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) from >42,000 forest sites throughout the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and northern California) of the United States. We built a species distribution model (SDM) in which occupied sites were linked with Landsat imagery to quantify murrelet-specific habitat and then used occupancy models to test the hypotheses that fragmentation negatively affects murrelet breeding distribution and that these effects are amplified with distance from the marine foraging habitat toward the edge of the species’ nesting range. Murrelet habitat declined in the Pacific Northwest by 20% since 1988, whereas the proportion of habitat comprising edges increased by 17%, indicating increased fragmentation. Furthermore, fragmentation of murrelet habitat at landscape scales (within 2 km of survey stations) negatively affected occupancy of potential breeding sites, and these effects were amplified near the range edge. On the coast, the odds of occupancy decreased by 37% (95% confidence interval [CI] –54 to 12) for each 10% increase in edge habitat (i.e., fragmentation), but at the range edge (88 km inland) these odds decreased by 99% (95% CI 98 to 99). Conversely, odds of murrelet occupancy increased by 31% (95% CI 14 to 52) for each 10% increase in local edge habitat (within 100 m of survey stations). Avoidance of fragmentation at broad scales but use of locally fragmented habitat with reduced quality may help explain the lack of murrelet population recovery. Further, our results emphasize that fragmentation effects can be nuanced, scale dependent, and geographically variable. Awareness of these nuances is critical for developing landscape-level conservation strategies for species experiencing broad-scale habitat loss and fragmentation.     

Multi-scale marine biodiversity patterns inferred efficiently from habitat image processing

Cost-effective proxies of biodiversity and species abundance, applicable across a range of spatial scales, are needed for setting conservation priorities and planning action. We outline a rapid, efficient, and low-cost measure of spectral signal from digital habitat images that, being an effective proxy for habitat complexity, correlates with species diversity and requires little image processing or interpretation. We validated this method for coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, across a range of spatial scales (1 m to 10 km), using digital photographs of benthic communities at the transect scale and high-resolution Landsat satellite images at the reef scale. We calculated an index of image-derived spatial heterogeneity, the mean information gain (MIG), for each scale and related it to univariate (species richness and total abundance summed across species) and multivariate (species abundance matrix) measures of fish community structure, using two techniques that account for the hierarchical structure of the data: hierarchical (mixed-effect) linear models and distance-based partial redundancy analysis. Over the length and breadth of the GBR, MIG alone explained up to 29% of deviance in fish species richness, 33% in total fish abundance, and 25% in fish community structure at multiple scales, thus demonstrating the possibility of easily and rapidly exploiting spatial information contained in digital images to complement existing methods for inferring diversity and abundance patterns among fish communities. Thus, the spectral signal of unprocessed remotely sensed images provides an efficient and low-cost way to optimize the design of surveys used in conservation planning. In data-sparse situations, this simple approach also offers a viable method for rapid assessment of potential local biodiversity, particularly where there is little local capacity in terms of skills or resources for mounting in-depth biodiversity surveys.     

Modeling Species' Distributions to Improve Conservation in Semiurban Landscapes: Koala Case Study

Abstract:  Models of species' distributions are commonly used to inform landscape and conservation planning. In urban and semiurban landscapes, the distributions of species are determined by a combination of natural habitat and anthropogenic impacts. Understanding the spatial influence of these two processes is crucial for making spatially explicit decisions about conservation actions. We present a logistic regression model for the distribution of koalas (  Phascolarctos cinereus ) in a semiurban landscape in eastern Australia that explicitly separates the effect of natural habitat quality and anthropogenic impacts on koala distributions. We achieved this by comparing the predicted distributions from the model with what the predicted distributions would have been if anthropogenic variables were at their mean values. Similar approaches have relied on making predictions assuming anthropogenic variables are zero, which will be unreliable if the training data set does not include anthropogenic variables close to zero. Our approach is novel because it can be applied to landscapes where anthropogenic variables are never close to zero. Our model showed that, averaged across the study area, natural habitat was the main determinant of koala presence. At a local scale, however, anthropogenic impacts could be more important, with consequent implications for conservation planning. We demonstrated that this modeling approach, combined with the visual presentation of predictions as a map, provides important information for making decisions on how different conservation actions should be spatially allocated. This method is particularly useful for areas where wildlife and human populations exist in close proximity.     

Effectiveness of Vegetation Surrogates for Parasitoid Wasps in Reserve Selection

Abstract:  Selecting suitable nature reserves is a continuing challenge in conservation, particularly for target groups that are time-consuming to survey, species rich, and extinction prone. One such group is the parasitoid Hymenoptera, which have been excluded from conservation planning. If basic characteristics of habitats or vegetation could be used as reliable surrogates of specific target taxa, this would greatly facilitate appropriate reserve selection. We identified a range of potential habitat indicators of the species richness of pimpline parasitoid communities (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Pimplinae, Diacritinae, Poemeniinae) and tested their efficiency at capturing the observed diversity in a group of small woodlands in the agricultural landscape of the Vale of York (United Kingdom). Eight of the 18 vegetation-based reserve-selection strategies were significantly better at parasitoid species inclusion than random selection of areas. The best strategy maximized richness of tree species over the entire reserve network through complementarity. This strategy omitted only 2–3 species more (out of 38 captured in the landscape as a whole) than selections derived from the parasitoid survey data. In general, strategies worked equally well at capturing species richness and rarity. Our results suggest that vegetation data as a surrogate for species richness could prove an informative tool in parasitoid conservation, but further work is needed to test how broadly applicable these indicators may be.     

A Mechanistic Approach to Evaluation of Umbrella Species as Conservation Surrogates

Abstract:  Although species with large area requirements are sometimes used as umbrella species, their general utility as conservation tools is uncertain. We surveyed the species diversity of birds, butterflies, carabids, and forest-floor plants in forest sites across an area (1600 km²) in which we delineated large breeding home ranges of Northern Goshawk ( Accipiter gentilis ). We tested whether protection of the home ranges could serve as an effective umbrella to protect sympatric species of the four taxa. We also used an empirical habitat model of occupancy of home range to examine mechanisms by which the Northern Goshawk acts as an umbrella species. Among species richness, abundance, and species composition of the four taxa, only abundance and species composition of birds differed between sites located inside and outside home ranges, which was due to greater abundance of bird species that were prey of Northern Goshawks inside the home ranges. Thus, although home range indicated areas with high abundance of certain bird prey species, it was not effective as an indicator of the species diversity of all four taxa. We also did not find any difference in species richness, abundance, and species composition between sites predicted as occupied and unoccupied using the habitat model. In contrast, when we selected sites on the basis of each habitat variable in the model, habitat variables that selected sites either in agricultural or forested landscapes encompassed sites with high species richness or particular species composition. This result suggests that the low performance of the Northern Goshawk as an umbrella species is due to this species' preference for habitat in both agricultural and forested landscapes. Species that can adjust to changes in habitat conditions may not act as effective umbrella species despite having large home ranges.     

Logging Concessions Can Extend the Conservation Estate for Central African Tropical Forests

Abstract:  The management of tropical forest in timber concessions has been proposed as a solution to prevent further biodiversity loss. The effectiveness of this strategy will likely depend on species-specific, population-level responses to logging. We conducted a survey (749 line transects over 3450 km) in logging concessions (1.2 million ha) in the northern Republic of Congo to examine the impact of logging on large mammal populations, including endangered species such as the elephant ( Loxodonta africana ), gorilla ( Gorilla gorilla ), chimpanzee ( Pan troglodytes ), and bongo ( Tragelaphus eurycerus ). When we estimated species abundance without consideration of transect characteristics, species abundances in logged and unlogged forests were not different for most species. When we modeled the data with a hurdle model approach, however, analyzing species presence and conditional abundance separately with generalized additive models and then combining them to calculate the mean species abundance, species abundance varied strongly depending on transect characteristics. The mean species abundance was often related to the distance to unlogged forest, which suggests that intact forest serves as source habitat for several species. The mean species abundance responded nonlinearly to logging history, changing over 30 years as the forest recovered from logging. Finally the distance away from roads, natural forest clearings, and villages also determined the abundance of mammals. Our results suggest that logged forest can extend the conservation estate for many of Central Africa's most threatened species if managed appropriately. In addition to limiting hunting, logging concessions must be large, contain patches of unlogged forest, and include forest with different logging histories.     

Ontogeny of provisioning in two populations of wild golden lion tamarins (Leontopithecus rosalia)

Provisioning weaned young is an important part of the cooperative rearing system of marmosets and tamarins (family: Callitrichidae). Juvenile callitrichids receive a substantial proportion of their diet from all adult group members, whereas juveniles of most other primate species only receive food from the mother infrequently via scrounging. We conducted a longitudinal study of provisioning to 21 young wild golden lion tamarins through their first year of life in two Brazilian reserves. Juveniles were predicted to experience higher provisioning rates at the site with mature forest (the presumed ancestral habitat) and in territories that contained a higher proportion of preferred habitat within the mature forest reserve. Key measures of provisioning did not differ substantially between habitat types. The rates at which juveniles begged for food were very similar across habitats, while the influence of habitat on the rates at which juveniles received food was small and varied across age groups. The most pronounced differences between the reserves were: adult resistance to food-transfer attempts was less frequent, food-offering calls before food transfer were more frequent, and the proportion of prey provisioned was higher in the reserve in which earlier successional-stage forest predominated. Within the mature forest reserve, begging success of young juveniles covaried positively with preferred habitat. Rather than overt caretaker–offspring conflict, an information–feedback loop between juveniles and adults appears to drive provisioning changes as juveniles mature. Direct measures of resource abundance are needed to help clarify the mechanisms by which forest successional stage influences provisioning.     

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: pushing the habitat envelope.

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can bb used. Traditional techniques generate pseudo-absence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, threshold-independent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (D(adj)2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent.     

Conservation planning on China's borders with Myanmar,Laos, and Vietnam

Transboundary conservation is playing an increasingly important role in maintaining ecosystem integrity and halting biodiversity loss caused by anthropogenic activities. However, lack of information on species distributions in transboundary regions and understanding of the threats in these areas impairs conservation. We developed a spatial conservation plan for the transboundary areas between Yunnan province, southwestern China, and neighboring Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. To identify priority areas for conservation and restoration, we determined species distribution patterns and recent land-use changes and examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of the connected natural forest, which supports most species. We assessed connectivity with equivalent connected area (ECA), which is the amount of reachable habitat for a species. An ECA incorporates the presence of habitat in a patch and the amount of habitat in other patches within dispersal distance. We analyzed 197,845 locality records from specimen collections and monographs for 21,004 plant and vertebrate species. The region of Yunnan immediately adjacent to the international borders had the highest species richness, with 61% of recorded species and 56% of threatened vertebrates, which suggests high conservation value. Satellite imagery showed the area of natural forest in the border zone declined by 5.2% (13,255 km²) from 1995 to 2018 and monoculture plantations increased 92.4%, shrubland 10.1%, and other cropland 6.2%. The resulting decline in connected natural forest reduced the amount of habitat, especially for forest specialists with limited dispersal abilities. The most severe decline in connectivity was along the Sino-Vietnamese border. Many priority areas straddle international boundaries, indicating demand and potential for establishing transboundary protected areas. Our results illustrate the importance of bi- and multilateral cooperation to protect biodiversity in this region and provide guidance for future conservation planning and practice.     

Contrasting ecological information content in whaling archives with modern cetacean surveys for conservation planning and identification of historical distribution changes

Many species are restricted to a marginal or suboptimal fraction of their historical range due to anthropogenic impacts, making it hard to interpret their ecological preferences from modern-day data alone. However, inferring past ecological states is limited by the availability of robust data and biases in historical archives, posing a challenge for policy makers . To highlight how historical records can be used to understand the ecological requirements of threatened species and inform conservation, we investigated sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) distribution in the Western Indian Ocean. We assessed differences in information content and habitat suitability predictions based on whale occurrence data from Yankee whaling logs (1792–1912) and from modern cetacean surveys (1995–2020). We built maximum entropy habitat suitability models containing static (bathymetry-derived) variables to compare models comprising historical-only and modern-only data. Using both historical and modern habitat suitability predictions  we assessed marine protected area (MPA) placement by contrasting suitability in- and outside MPAs. The historical model predicted high habitat suitability in shelf and coastal regions near continents and islands, whereas the modern model predicted a less coastal distribution with high habitat suitability more restricted to areas of steep topography. The proportion of high habitat suitability inside versus outside MPAs was higher when applying the historical predictions than the modern predictions, suggesting that different marine spatial planning optimums can be reached from either data sources. Moreover, differences in relative habitat suitability predictions between eras were consistent with the historical depletion of sperm whales from coastal regions, which were easily accessed and targeted by whalers, resulting in a modern distribution limited more to steep continental margins and remote oceanic ridges. The use of historical data can provide important new insights and, through cautious interpretation, inform conservation planning and policy, for example, by identifying refugee species and regions of anticipated population recovery.     

Effectiveness of management zoning designed for flagship species in protecting sympatric species

Flagship species have been used widely as umbrella species (i.e., species with large home range whose protection often provides protection for sympatric species) in the management of China's nature reserves. This conflation of flagship and umbrella species is best represented by the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and other large, endangered mammals designated as conservation targets in site selection and planning of reserves. Few empirical studies have tested the effectiveness of flagship species as surrogates for a broader range of sympatric species. Using extensive camera-trap data, we examined the effectiveness of management zones designated to protect flagship (target) species in conserving sympatric species in 4 wildlife reserves (Gutianshan, Changqing, Laohegou, and Wolong). We tested whether the progression from peripheral to core zones was associated with an increasing habitat association for both target and sympatric species. The distribution patterns of the study species across the zones in each reserve indicated a disparity between management zones and the species’ habitat requirements. Management zone was included in the final model for all target species, and most of them had higher occurrence in core zones relative to less-protected zones, but zone was not a predictor for most of the sympatric species. When management zone was associated with the occurrence of sympatric species, threatened species generally had higher detections in core zones, whereas common species had higher detections outside of the core zone. Our results suggested that reserve planning based on flagship species does not adequately protect sympatric species due to their specialized habitat requirements. We recommend re-examining the effectiveness of management zoning and urge a multispecies and reserve-wide monitoring plan to improve protection of China's wildlife.     

Influence of environment, disturbance, and ownership on forest vegetation of coastal Oregon.

Information about how vegetation composition and structure vary quantitatively and spatially with physical environment, disturbance history, and land ownership is fundamental to regional conservation planning. However, current knowledge about patterns of vegetation variability across large regions that is spatially explicit (i.e., mapped) tends to be general and qualitative. We used spatial predictions from gradient models to examine the influence of environment, disturbance, and ownership on patterns of forest vegetation biodiversity across a large forested region, the 3-million-ha Oregon Coast Range (USA). Gradients in tree species composition were strongly associated with environment, especially climate, and insensitive to disturbance, probably because many dominant tree species are long-lived and persist throughout forest succession. In contrast, forest structure was strongly correlated with disturbance and only weakly with environmental gradients. Although forest structure differed among ownerships, differences were blurred by the presence of legacy trees that originated prior to current forest management regimes. Our multi-ownership perspective revealed biodiversity concerns and benefits not readily visible in single-ownership analyses, and all ownerships contributed to regional biodiversity values. Federal lands provided most of the late-successional and old-growth forest. State lands contained a range of forest ages and structures, including diverse young forest, abundant legacy dead wood, and much of the high-elevation true fir forest. Nonindustrial private lands provided diverse young forest and the greatest abundance of hardwood trees, including almost all of the foothill oak woodlands. Forest industry lands encompassed much early-successional forest, most of the mixed hardwood-conifer forest, and large amounts of legacy down wood. The detailed tree- and species-level data in the maps revealed regional trends that would be masked in traditional coarse-filter assessment. Although abundant, most early-successional forests originated after timber harvest and lacked legacy live and dead trees important as habitat and for other ecological functions. Many large-conifer forests that might be classified as old growth using a generalized forest cover map lacked structural features of old growth such as multilayered canopies or dead wood. Our findings suggest that regional conservation planning include all ownerships and land allocations, as well as fine-scale elements of vegetation composition and structure.     

Judicious Use of Multiple Hypothesis Tests

Abstract:  When analyzing a table of statistical results, one must first decide whether adjustment of significance levels is appropriate. If the main goal is hypothesis generation or initial screening for potential conservation problems, then it may be appropriate to use the standard comparisonwise significance level to avoid Type II errors (not detecting real differences or trends). If the main goal is rigorous testing of a hypothesis, however, then an adjustment for multiple tests is needed. To control the familywise Type I error rate (the probability of rejecting at least one true null hypothesis), sequential modifications of the standard Bonferroni method, such as Holm's method, will provide more statistical power than the standard Bonferroni method. Additional power may be achieved through procedures that control the false discovery rate (FDR) (the expected proportion of false positives among tests found to be significant). Holm's sequential Bonferroni method and two FDR-controlling procedures were applied to the results of multiple-regression analyses of the relationship between habitat variables and the abundance of 25 species of forest birds in Japan, and the FDR-controlling procedures provided considerably greater statistical power.     

Effect of Planning for Connectivity on Linear Reserve Networks

Although the concept of connectivity is decades old, it remains poorly understood and defined, and some argue that habitat quality and area should take precedence in conservation planning instead. However, fragmented landscapes are often characterized by linear features that are inherently connected, such as streams and hedgerows. For these, both representation and connectivity targets may be met with little effect on the cost, area, or quality of the reserve network. We assessed how connectivity approaches affect planning outcomes for linear habitat networks by using the stock‐route network of Australia as a case study. With the objective of representing vegetation communities across the network at a minimal cost, we ran scenarios with a range of representation targets (10%, 30%, 50%, and 70%) and used 3 approaches to account for connectivity (boundary length modifier, Euclidean distance, and landscape‐value [LV]). We found that decisions regarding the target and connectivity approach used affected the spatial allocation of reserve systems. At targets ≥50%, networks designed with the Euclidean distance and LV approaches consisted of a greater number of small reserves. Hence, by maximizing both representation and connectivity, these networks compromised on larger contiguous areas. However, targets this high are rarely used in real‐world conservation planning. Approaches for incorporating connectivity into the planning of linear reserve networks that account for both the spatial arrangement of reserves and the characteristics of the intervening matrix highlight important sections that link the landscape and that may otherwise be overlooked. El Efecto de la Planeación para la Conectividad en Redes de Reservas Lineales