华东沿海热带气旋移动和降水特征研究

基于TRMM 3B42RT 3 h降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的500 hPa分析场资料,借助于GIS空间分析方法,对热带气旋降水大值区的分布落区与移动路径之间的空间关系进行了统计叠置,分析了2000～2009年共29个登陆华东沿海或进入华东近海海域的热带气旋的路径、强度、降水的空间分布以及500 hPa环流形势对其影响的规律。结果表明：不同500 hPa环流形势对登陆热带气旋的移动路径及降水的空间分布型态有规律可循,其中中高纬西风带环流形势（50°N以北）以及副高西脊点所处的位置在热带气旋路径和降水分布型的业务预报中起着重要的指示作用     

Effect of a global warming-induced increase in typhoon intensity on urban productivity in Taiwan

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future due to the warming effect of greenhouse gases on surface sea temperatures. The aim of this paper is to establish what would be the likely decrease in the productivity of urban workers due to an increase in tropical cyclone-related downtime. The methodology used simulates future tropical cyclones by magnifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. It then uses a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. It shows how annual downtime from tropical cyclones could increase from 1.5% nowadays to up to 2.2% by 2085, an increase of almost 50%. This decrease in productivity could result in a loss of up to 0.7% of the annual Taiwanese GDP by 2085.     

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: an overview

Regional Environmental Change - Climate-related disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts are not new to Pacific Islanders, who have developed customary or ‘traditional’...     

1986~2015年中国东南沿海致灾气旋#br# 及其直接经济损失变化特征

将造成经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。基于1986~2015年浙江、福建和广东省180个致灾气旋路径、灾情以及气象数据,研究致灾气旋发生的频次、经标准化处理的经济损失及风雨的时空变化特征。（1）1986~2015年东南沿海地区致灾气旋频数整体呈上升趋势。广东省致灾气旋发生频次最多,浙江省相对较小,但强度高于台风的致灾气旋发生频次增加显著。（2）浙江、福建和广东省致灾气旋造成的经济损失呈上升趋势,但占各省当年GDP的比重均有所减少,广东省比重下降最为显著;浙江省受致灾气旋经济影响最严重,损失较高的致灾气旋发生概率最大,福建省受致灾气旋影响相对较小。（3）降水量及风速是造成致灾气旋直接经济损失的重要因素,风速是影响广东省经济损失的主要因子,浙江省受降水量变化影响显著,而福建省受降水量及风速影响相对较小。浙江省东部和南部、福建省东北部以及广东省东部和西南部致灾气旋发生频次高,引起风速大、降水多,造成直接经济损失最严重。研究结果有利于深化对东南沿海地区热带气旋基本特征及损失的认识,为中国东南沿海热带气旋防灾减灾政策提供了参考。     

Seasonal 7Be and 137Cs activities in surface air before and after the Chernobyl event

Seasonal fluctuations of cosmogenic (7)Be (T(1/2)=53.4 days) and anthropogenic (137)Cs (T(1/2)=30 years) activities in surface air (aerosols) have been extracted from a long data record (1972-2000) at high latitude (56 degrees N-68 degrees N, Sweden). Normalization to weekly average values was used to control long-term trends so that cyclical trends could be investigated. Enhanced (7)Be activity was observed in spring and summer seasons and likely relates to the seasonal thinning of the tropopause. Variations in the (137)Cs activity record seem to reflect how the isotope was injected in the atmosphere (stratospheric from bomb tests and tropospheric from the Chernobyl accident) and subsequent transport mechanisms. Accordingly, until 1986, the surface air (137)Cs activity was strongly related to nuclear weapons test fallout and exhibits temporal fluctuations resembling the (7)Be. Conversely, since 1986 the Chernobyl-produced (137)Cs dominates the long-term record that shows annual cycles that are strongly controlled by atmospheric boundary layer conditions. Additionally, short-term data within the post-Chernobyl period suggest subtle intrusion of air masses rich in (137)Cs that may occur throughout the year, and differences resulting from spatial occurrence at these latitudes. This is an important observation that may have to do with year-to-year variation and calls for caution when interpreting short-term data records.     

A procedure to estimate worst-case air quality in complex terrain

Using a straightforward synoptic climatological analysis scheme, it is shown that the potential for an area to experience air quality degradation due to local sources is highest under polar subtropical highs. With respect to polar highs, the problem is most severe when the sun angle is low and snow covers the ground, and the polar high persists for a long period of time. A simple algorithm is introduced which is designed to estimate worst-case impact in a trapping valley. The potential for the accumulation of air pollution in such valleys due to the persistence of a polar high in a region, is ignored in current regulatory air quality assessments. Trapping valleys and synoptic flow stagnation often occur in wilderness areas. Refined air quality assessments are shown to be possible using a mesoscale meteorological model and a pollution dispersion model. These tools permit quantitative assessments of pollution build-up from local sources as a result of the recirculation of the local air. This tool, along with the synoptic climatological classification scheme, also permits an evaluation of the fractional contribution of long range versus local sources in the air quality degradation in a region. Areas near the center of a polar or subtropical surface high pressure system, for instance, appear to be dominated by local sources, if they exist, whereas in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones, long-range transport is usually much more important.     

The impact of socio-economics and climate change on tropical cyclone losses in the USA

Tropical cyclones that make landfall on the coast of the USA are causing increasing economic losses. It is assumed that the increase in losses is largely due to socio-economic developments, i.e. growing wealth and greater settlement of exposed areas. However, it is also thought that the rise in losses is caused by increasing frequency of severe cyclones resulting from climate change, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. The object of this paper is to investigate how sensitive the losses are to socio-economic changes and climate changes and how these factors have evolved over the last 50 years. We will then draw conclusions about the part the factors concerned play in the observed increase in losses. For analysis purposes, storm loss is depicted as a function of the value of material assets affected by the storm (the capital stock) and storm intensity. The findings show the increase in losses due to socio-economic changes to have been approximately three times greater than that due to climate-induced changes.     

Past and future perspectives upon landscape instability in Cumbria, northwest England

Geomorphic and lacustrine evidence is used to identify phases of landscape instability in Cumbria, northwest England, British Isles. The temporal and spatial pattern of erosion is used alongside palaeovegetation data from across the region to elucidate the causes of landscape instability in the late Holocene. The lines of evidence include changes in sediment accumulation rate and provenance within the region’s lakes; the hillslope alluvial fan and gully incision record; the lowland fluvial geomorphic record; and pollen analytical data for the late Holocene vegetation history. The sediment supply driven hillslope and lacustrine records suggest that only the 1,200–800 BP and post 600–500 BP erosion episodes were both catchment-wide and directly affected upland hillslopes, with the earlier phases after 5,200 and 3,000–1,600 BP on a lower scale and more restricted spatially. These episodes coincide with major expansions or changes in anthropogenic activity during Neolithic, Iron Age and Romano-British, Norse and late Medieval times. The projected future trajectories of changes in both climate (UKCIP scenarios) and landuse (CAP reform and ESA status) appear unlikely to increase landscape instability, although a shift to greater incidence of storms and high magnitude flood events clearly could. The past shows that the largest increases in erosion and sediment movement occur in the wake of major intensifications in land pressure that primarily affect previously wooded or protected hillslopes, circumstances that land management strategists should mitigate against.     

Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate

Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Mediterranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 % of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin.     

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.     

210Pb and 137Cs as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - links to flooding frequency and climate change

Five salt marsh sediment cores from different parts of the Venice Lagoon were studied to determine their depositional history and its relationship with the environmental changes occurred during the past approximately 100 years. X-radiographs of the cores show no disturbance related to particle mixing. Accretion rates were calculated using a constant flux model applied to excess (210)Pb distributions in the cores. The record of (137)Cs fluxes to the sites, determined from (137)Cs profiles and the (210)Pb chronologies, shows inputs from the global fallout of (137)Cs in the late 1950s to early 1960s and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Average accretion rates in the cores are comparable to the long-term average rate of mean sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon ( approximately 0.25 cm y(-1)) except for a core collected in a marsh presumably affected by inputs from the Dese River. Short-term variations in accretion rate are correlated with the cumulative frequency of flooding, as determined by records of Acqua Alta, in four of the five cores, suggesting that variations in the phenomena causing flooding (such as wind patterns, storm frequency and NAO) are short-term driving forces for variations in marsh accretion rate.     

Impacts of climate change and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia.

Emerald, north-east Queensland, is at the northern margin of the wheat cropping region of Australia. The Emerald region was previously used predominantly for grazing beef cattle; however, cropping has developed in importance over the past 30 years. We use historical climate records (1890-1998) to simulate and compare wheat yields, grass production and live-weight gain (LWG) over time. The cropping expansion from the 1970s to the early 1990s has occurred in a unique period in the 108-year record with the highest average wheat yields, lowest wheat yield variability and the greatest relative productivity of wheat production against grass production. If this window of opportunity is a result of long-term climate variability, then cropping is likely to decline in the region as conditions return to those experienced earlier in the record. If this increase is related to climate change, then cropping is likely to persist in the region with productivity maintained at current levels particularly through the yield-enhancing effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, this persistence will be influenced by the frequencies of El Ni?o conditions that may increase with global warming. The high relative productivities experienced over the past few decades have probably biased producers' expectations, and applications for drought support need to take into account the longer-term perspective provided by this analysis. Nevertheless, the last 6 years have the lowest simulated mean LWG production on the record. The identification of poor production periods depended on the production element being addressed and the timescale involved.     

Sediment deposition rate in the Falefa River basin, Upolu Island, Samoa

The (137)Cs method was employed to investigate the recent historical rate of sediment deposition on a lowland alluvial floodplain in the Falefa River basin, Upolu Island, Samoa. Caesium stratigraphy in the floodplain sediment profile was clearly defined, with a broad peak at 145-175 cm depth. The measured rate of vertical accretion over the last 40 years is 4.0+/-0.4 cm per year. This rate exceeds observations in humid environments elsewhere, but is similar to that recorded on other tropical Pacific Islands. Available flow data for the Vaisigano River in Samoa give a 'near-catastrophic' index value of 0.6 for flood variability. This is associated with the occurrence of tropical cyclones and storms in the Samoa area. Large floods therefore probably contribute to the high rate of floodplain sedimentation on Upolu Island. A small but growing body of evidence suggests that fluvial sedimentation rates on tropical Pacific islands are some of the highest in the world.     

A people‐centred perspective on climate change,environmental stress,and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra delta enables Bangladesh to sustain a dense population, but it also exposes people to natural hazards. This article presents findings from the Gibika project, which researches livelihood resilience in seven study sites across Bangladesh. This study aims to understand how people in the study sites build resilience against environmental stresses, such as cyclones, floods, riverbank erosion, and drought, and in what ways their strategies sometimes fail. The article applies a new methodology for studying people’s decision making in risk-prone environments: the personal Livelihood History interviews (N = 28). The findings show how environmental stress, shocks, and disturbances affect people’s livelihood resilience and why adaptation measures can be unsuccessful. Floods, riverbank erosion, and droughts cause damage to agricultural lands, crops, houses, and properties. People manage to adapt by modifying their agricultural practices, switching to alternative livelihoods, or using migration as an adaptive strategy. In the coastal study sites, cyclones are a severe hazard. The study reveals that when a cyclone approaches, people sometimes choose not to evacuate: they put their lives at risk to protect their livelihoods and properties. Future policy and adaptation planning must use lessons learned from people currently facing environmental stress and shocks.     

Modelling wheat production from low-rainfall farming systems in Northern Australia

Wheat yields are highly variable in northern Australia because rainfall is variable. Economic benefits from applying nitrogen fertilisers are uncertain because yield responses depend on a good supply of soil moisture during the growing of the crop to provide a high potential yield. While an experiment in 1996 indicated that up to 90 kg N/ha of N fertiliser is profitable, it was not known whether this response is reliable or typical. A crop model and historical climate records (1960–1993) were used in this study to produce a long-term record of yield and grain protein responses to N fertilisers. Responses in 1996 are shown to be atypical due to the favourable conditions in that year. Under typical growing conditions, it is not economic to use N fertiliser. The simulations quantified the relationship between responses to fertiliser and the amount of soil moisture available at sowing. Applications of N fertilisers will be most profitable if used when measurements indicate that the plant-available soil moisture content before sowing is above average.     

Soil salinity,household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh

As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and household expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.     

City Blueprints: baseline assessments of water management and climate change in 45 cities

Climate change and urbanization are among the most significant trends of the twenty-first century, affecting global natural resources such as water, economic development and human well-being. The growth of the world population will be absorbed by the cities. The necessity of cities adapting to these trends calls for radical changes in urban water management. In this paper, baseline assessments, i.e., City Blueprints, have been carried out for 45 municipalities and regions in 27 countries, mainly in Europe. The assessments showed that cities vary considerably with regard to their water management. This is also captured in the Blue City Index^® (BCI), the arithmetic mean of 24 indicators comprising the City Blueprint^®. Theoretically, the BCI has a minimum score of 0 and a maximum score of 10. The actual BCIs in the 45 cities and regions varied from 3.5 (Kilamba Kiaxi in Angola) to 8.5 (Helsingborg in Sweden). The BCI was positively and significantly correlated with the gross domestic product per person, the ambitions of the local authorities regarding water management, the voluntary participation index and governance indicators according to the World Bank (2013). The study also demonstrated a very significant correlation between the BCI and the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. The impacts of water scarcity and floods in cities are discussed. It is concluded that cities in transitional and developing countries are particularly at risk.     

A high-resolution climatological study on the comparison between surface explosive and ordinary cyclones in the Mediterranean

The dynamic and kinematic characteristics of surface explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean are examined and compared to those of ordinary cyclones. The cyclone detection is performed with the tracking algorithm developed in the University of Melbourne, using the 1° × 1° ERA-40 mean sea level pressure dataset for a 40 year period. It is verified that the explosive cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean is mainly a maritime phenomenon, occurring along the northern Mediterranean coast during the cold season. On the contrary, the ordinary cyclogenesis exhibits significant maxima in both continental and maritime environments throughout the year. The explosive cyclones are characterized by longer lifetime and greater propagation speed. They are larger and deeper in the eastern Mediterranean, whereas the ordinary cyclones are deeper in the western and larger in the eastern Mediterranean. The trend analysis revealed that both explosive and ordinary cyclones become less frequent in the Mediterranean basin, while there is a tendency for deeper ordinary cyclones over North Africa and shallower over the Aegean Sea and Cyprus.     

长江河口中央沙位移变化与南北港分流口稳定性研究

中央沙位于长江口南北港分流口河段，这一河段集中了宝钢等一批重要码头，下游有长兴岛造船基地和长江口深水航道等重点工程，因此分流口保持稳定至关重要。以1870年中央沙出现雏形以来的海图为基础资料，利用ArcGIS等GIS软件，研究了中央沙发育演变的位移变化及其典型剖面特征，发现中央沙的变化特点是在长期径流作用下后退和承接上游底沙下泄发生上提的“下移-上提-再下移……”的周期性演变规律。再进一步对南北港分流口各个沙洲近10年来面积和体积进行计算，结合实测水文资料对通道演变进行了分析，认为现阶段长江口南北港分流口处于不稳定时期，应尽早实施分流口整治工程，稳定河势、滩势和减小底沙下泄对下游的威胁.     

Some limitations of biological monitoring

Biological monitoring data are obtained to document changes in population abundance for resource management, to verify compliance with regulatory directives, and to assess cause and effect for research purposes. Particular statistical analyses are often not appropriate because suitable field designs are either not available or not matched a priori to the monitoring objectives. When monitoring to detect normal changes in population numbers, quantitative problems may not be as difficult as they are in detecting and assigning causation induced by a natural or man-made pollutant. Changes in biotic abundance can be caused or influenced by compensation, indirect effects, direct mortality, and interactions among environmental variables. Even though data from baseline monitoring programs should usually only be used to detect change in biotic abundance, they sometimes can be used to draw inferences about cause by correlation or to test laboratory results against a long-term historical record. Available quantitative methodologies useful in evaluating monitoring data are limited and interpretations about cause and effect are difficult.