Assessment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Mass Balances for Acidification Assessments: A MAGIC Model Exercise

Long-term (1860–2010) catchment mass balance calculations rely on models and assumptions which are sources of uncertainty in acidification assessments. In this article, we report on an application of MAGIC to model acidification at the four Swedish IM forested catchments that have been subject to differing degrees of acidification stress. Uncertainties in the modeled mass balances were mainly associated with the deposition scenario and assumptions about sulfate adsorption and soil mass. Estimated base cation (BC) release rates (weathering) varied in a relatively narrow range of 47–62 or 42–47 meq m⁻² year⁻¹, depending on assumptions made about soil cation exchange capacity and base saturation. By varying aluminum solubility or introducing a dynamic weathering feedback that allowed BC release to increase at more acidic pHs, a systematic effect on predicted changes in acid neutralizing capacity (ΔANC ca. 10–41 μeq l⁻¹) and pH (ca. ΔpH = 0.1–0.6) at all sites was observed. More robust projections of future changes in pH and ANC are dependent on reducing uncertainties in BC release rates, the timing, and extent of natural acidification through BC uptake by plants, temporal changes in soil element pools, and fluxes of Al between compartments.     

Acidification Remediation Alternatives: Exploring the Temporal Dimension with Cost Benefit Analysis

Acidification of soils and surface waters caused by acid deposition is still a major problem in southern Scandinavia, despite clear signs of recovery. Besides emission control, liming of lakes, streams, and wetlands is currently used to ameliorate acidification in Sweden. An alternative strategy is forest soil liming to restore the acidified upland soils from which much acidified runoff originates. This cost–benefit analysis compared these liming strategies with a special emphasis on the time perspective for expected benefits. Benefits transfer was used to estimate use values for sport ffishing and nonuse values in terms of existence values. The results show that large-scale forest soil liming is not socioeconomically profitable, while lake liming is, if it is done efficiently—in other words, if only acidified surface waters are treated. The beguiling logic of “solving” an environmental problem at its source (soils), rather than continuing to treat the symptoms (surface waters), is thus misleading.     

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.     

Past and Present Permafrost Temperatures in the Abisko Area: Redrilling of Boreholes

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007–2008), new boreholes were drilled within the ‘Back to the Future’ (BTF) and ‘Thermal State of Permafrost’ (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from −0.16 to −0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.     

ESP Performance Capability and Utilization: Past and Future

The following paper was presented by Alan B. Walker at the International Conference on Electrostatic Precipitation held in Monterey, California, October 14–16, 1981. Mr. Walker’s candid remarks were part of the opening session on “Electrostatic Precipitation Today.” The proceedings of this outstanding conference will be published by the Air Pollution Control Association.     

Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification

Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology.     

Reduced European emissions of S and N--effects on air concentrations, deposition and soil water chemistry in Swedish forests

Changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution in Swedish forests have been assessed in relation to European emission reductions, based on measurements in the Swedish Throughfall Monitoring Network. Measurements were analysed over 20 years with a focus on the 12-year period 1996 to 2008. Air concentrations of SO₂ and NO₂, have decreased. The SO₄-deposition has decreased in parallel with the European emission reductions. Soil water SO₄-concentrations have decreased at most sites but the pH, ANC and inorganic Al-concentrations indicated acidification recovery only at some of the sites. No changes in the bulk deposition of inorganic nitrogen could be demonstrated. Elevated NO₃-concentrations in the soil water occurred at irregular occasions at some southern sites. Despite considerable air pollution emission reductions in Europe, acidification recovery in Swedish forests soils is slow. Nitrogen deposition to Swedish forests continues at elevated levels that may lead to leaching of nitrate to surface waters.     

On the scope and management of pesticide pollution of Swedish groundwater resources: The Scanian example

Twenty-three south-Swedish public supply wells were studied to assess pesticide pollution of regional groundwater resources. Relations between pesticide occurrence, hydrogeology, and land use were analyzed using Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Maps approach. Pesticides are demonstrated to be substantially present in regional groundwater, with detections in 18 wells. Concentrations above the drinking water threshold are confirmed for nine wells. Observations indicate considerable urban influence, and lagged effects of past, less restricted use. Modern, oxic waters from shallow, unconfined, unconsolidated or fracture-type bedrock aquifers appear particularly vulnerable. Least affected waters appear primarily associated with deeper wells, anoxic conditions, and more confined sediment aquifers lacking urban influence. Comprehensive, standardized monitoring of pesticides in groundwater need to be implemented nationwide to enable sound assessments of pollution status and trends, and to develop sound groundwater management plans in accordance with the Water Framework Directive. Further, existing water protection areas and associated regulations need to be reassessed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0548-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Past,current and future Swedish freshwater monitoring from an authority perspective

The synthesis of the BONUS+ research is introduced. The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan is examined as a case to illustrate the potentials and challenges in building the science–policymaking interface on a macroregional level. The projects address environmental challenges in the Baltic Sea as defined by the Baltic Sea Action Plan, or consider the environmental governance and decision making within the Baltic Sea context in general. Eutrophication, biodiversity, hazardous substances, maritime activities, and the environment governance are addressed, as are crosscutting issues, such as the impact of climate change, maritime spatial planning and impacts of future development on ecosystem services. The projects contributed to relevant policy developments: 37 consultations carried out at EU level, 49 modifications to policy documents and action plans, 153 suggestions for the efficacy of pertinent public policies and governance, and in 570 occasions, scientists working in BONUS+ projects served as members or observers in scientific and stakeholder committees.     

Social Network Analysis of Multi-level Linkages: A Swedish Case Study on Northern Forest-Based Sectors

Forest use in Northern Sweden is being influenced both by global trends and local situations. This results in interactions between numerous groups that may impact local forest governance. Social network analysis can here provide insight into the total pattern of positive, negative, and cross-level interactions within user group community structure (within and among groups). This study analyses interactions within selected renewable resource sectors in two northern Swedish municipalities, both with regard to whether they are positive, neutral, or negative, as well as with regard to how local actors relate to actors across levels, e.g., with regional, national, and international actors. The study illustrates that many interactions both within and outside a given sector are seen as neutral or positive, and that considerable interaction and impact are defined as national and in some cases even international. It also indicates that the impact of Sweden’s only existing Model Forest may to some extent constitute a bridge between different sectors and levels, in comparison with the interactions between sectors in a municipality where such a cooperation mechanism does not exist.     

Caesium-137 in Perch in Swedish Lakes after Chernobyl-present situation, relationships and trends

The Chernobyl accident, and the general acidification of Swedish water systems, form the base for this project. The aims of the work have been to present results on the linkage between the concentration of Cs-137 in fish, lake load of Cs and lake characteristics, to give a preliminary prognosis on the recovery, and to put the results within a wider framework of environmental hazard analysis. A broad set of data on limnology, morphometry and drainage area conditions from 41 lakes were collected during 1986 and 1987. Cs-137 was determined in 1 + perch (Cs-pe, 1-year-old perch), water, material collected by sediment traps and from surficial sediments. The main results are as follows. The average value of Cs-pe for all lakes has dropped from 9800 Bq kg(-1) (wet) to 5040 between the 2 years. Generally, the decrease is between 5 and 90%. We have tested if any factor(s) could be specifically linked to this decrease-no such factors have been found. The concentrations of Cs in sediment traps have, on average, decreased by 80%. Very high correlations exist between Cs-pe and the caesium load as determined from the sediment traps. Between 1 and 10% (mean 3.9%) of the initial fall-out deposition to the drainage area was transported from land to water during June to August 1986. The variation in initial fall-out deposition explains 65-69% of the variability in Cs-pe; the degree of explanation (= coefficient of determination, r2) increases to about 85% if one also takes into account the lake water hardness and totP. A map showing with lakes likely to have 1 + perch with higher mean Cs-concentrations than 1500 Bq kg(-1) wet is presented. Between 4000 and 7000 lakes in Sweden appear to have Cs-pe higher than 1500 Bq kg(-1) wet, figures which emphasize the serious impact of the Chernobyl accident on the environmental conditions in Sweden.     

The legacy from the 50 years of acid rain research,forming present and future research and monitoring of ecosystem impact: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Acidification

Acid rain and acidification research are indeed a multidisciplinary field. This field evolved from the first attempts to mitigate acid freshwater in the 1920s, then linking acid rain to the acidification in late 1950s, to the broad project-concepts on cause and effect from the late 1960s. Three papers from 1974, 1976 and 1988 demonstrate a broad approach and comprise scientific areas from analytical chemistry, biochemistry, limnology, ecology, physiology and genetics. Few, if any, environmental problems have led to a public awareness, political decisions and binding limitations as the story of acid rain. Acid precipitation and acidification problems still exist, but at a lower pressure, and liming has been reduced accordingly. However, the biological responses in the process of recovery are slow and delayed. The need for basic science, multidisciplinary studies, long time series of high-quality data, is a legacy from the acid rain era, and must form the platform for all future environmental projects.     

Recovery of Soil Water,Groundwater, and Streamwater From Acidification at the Swedish Integrated Monitoring Catchments

Recovery from anthropogenic acidification in streams and lakes is well documented across the northern hemisphere. In this study, we use 1996–2009 data from the four Swedish Integrated Monitoring catchments to evaluate how the declining sulfur deposition has affected sulfate, pH, acid neutralizing capacity, ionic strength, aluminum, and dissolved organic carbon in soil water, groundwater and runoff. Differences in recovery rates between catchments, between recharge and discharge areas and between soil water and groundwater are assessed. At the IM sites, atmospheric deposition is the main human impact. The chemical trends were weakly correlated to the sulfur deposition decline. Other factors, such as marine influence and catchment features, seem to be as important. Except for pH and DOC, soil water and groundwater showed similar trends. Discharge areas acted as buffers, dampening the trends in streamwater. Further monitoring and modeling of these hydraulically active sites should be encouraged.     

湖泊围栏养殖容量估算

随着中国水产养殖业的快速发展,水产养殖业对水环境的污染日益引起关注.确定合理的水产养殖容量是协调经济效益和环境保护的基础.分析、比较了目前关于养殖容量的主要观点,阐述了生态容纳量、环境容纳量和养殖容量等概念及其相互关系.从规划环境影响评价的角度,确定水产养殖容量的定义为:在自然条件、水环境及社会、经济和现有生产技术等因素的约束下,水产养殖活动所能获得的最大养殖产量.它由自然容纳量(Enp)、需求容量(Dp)和基于水环境容量的养殖容量(Ewp)3部分组成.据此,建立了养殖容量计算模型,并核算出东太湖围网养殖的最佳养殖模式为轮牧式养蟹600 kg/hm2,养殖容量为年河蟹养殖量1 685.0 t,年配套草食性鱼类5 015.6 t(散养,不围网),养殖面积为3 056.20 hm2(不使用外源性饲料).     

Seasonal fluxes and temperature-dependent accumulation of persistent organic pollutants in lakes: The role of internal biogeochemical cycling

A dynamic flux model for lakes taking into account the interactions between atmospheric depositional and biogeochemical processes (BIODEP model) was used to assess the importance of internal cycling and biogeochemical processes with respect to accumulation of four different polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (congeners 28, 52, 101 and 153) in Lake Redo, a high-altitude lake in the Spanish Pyrenees. To investigate the effect of temperature on sediment accumulation, the model was run at different temperatures and corresponding sediment inventories were plotted vs. reciprocal temperature. In line with measurements from a previous study looking at sediment inventories of 19 European high-altitude lakes (MOLAR study), we found a stronger temperature dependence of lake sediment concentrations for the less volatile/less soluble PCBs. Seasonal and annual mass balances were investigated and highlighted the importance of internal lake processes controlling the differences in sediment accumulation for the different PCB congeners. For example, the higher temperature dependence of sediment inventories for the high chlorinated congeners is due to the fast dynamics of water-to-sediment transport in comparison to atmospheric deposition processes.     

Widespread waterborne pollution in central Swedish lakes and the Baltic Sea from pre-industrial mining and metallurgy

Metal pollution is viewed as a modern problem that began in the 19th century and accelerated through the 20th century; however, in many parts of the globe this view is wrong. Here, we studied past waterborne metal pollution in lake sediments from the Bergslagen region in central Sweden, one of many historically important mining regions in Europe. With a focus on lead (including isotopes), we trace mining impacts from a local scale, through a 120-km-long river system draining into Mälaren - Sweden's third largest lake, and finally also the Baltic Sea. Comparison of sediment and peat records shows that pollution from Swedish mining was largely waterborne and that atmospheric deposition was dominated by long-range transport from other regions. Swedish ore lead is detectable from the 10th century, but the greatest impact occurred during the 16th-18th centuries with improvements occurring over recent centuries, i.e., historical pollution > modern industrial pollution.     

Modeling the response of eutrophication control measures in a Swedish lake

The response of a biogeochemical lake model (BIOLA) to different eutrophication management actions has been studied in a eutrophic lake. Management actions included in the study were nutrient load reduction, sediment manipulation, biomanipulation, and herbicide application. The model was used to simulate nutrient and biomass concentrations in the lake during the 1990s. During the same period, management scenarios were also simulated. Several ecological parameters were calibrated to better simulate the behavior of the chosen lake, but there were still some difficulties with phosphate. This indicated that further model development is necessary. The most favorable development within the lake was found for scenarios with nutrient load reduction and biomanipulation through planktivorous fish reduction. Reducing both the nitrogen and phosphorus loads had a greater effect on the lake's water quality than simply reducing just one of the nutrients.     

The Precautionary Principle and Chemicals Regulation: Past Achievements and Future Possibilities (8 pages)

Background, Aim and Scope

The paper investigates the development of the institutional basis of the present modes of chemicals regulation and management, with special attention to interrelations with the precautionary principle. Main Features: The paper elucidates on how the precautionary principle has been shaped in relation to chemicals regulation and management since Carson's Silent Spring (years before the principle was confirmed as a policy-principle in German and European legislation. Furthermore, it is examined how the precautionary principle interacted with the development of the present chemicals regulatory regime, in a complex interplay within the OECD and Member Countries. The present modes of precaution in the new EU chemical legislation – REACH – are investigated with respect to the precautionary principle, and tested against two contemporary problems; brominated flame retardants and endocrine disrupting substances. Results: The analysis demonstrates the changing character of the integration of the precautionary principle. The main tendencies are from implicit to more explicit precaution and from a closed expert-orientation towards a more deliberative approach to scientific knowledge and uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the precautionary principle is manifest in both the design of the testing strategy and in policy provisions. In particular, the substitution of hazardous substances with less hazardous is important. Discussion: Despite explicit attention to the precautionary principle, is the present reformulation of the European Chemicals policy in danger of falling into loop-holes that equal problems related to the present regulation of existing chemicals? 'Precaution' has been reduced virtually to an abstract concept that is more or less devoid of practical meaning in the regulatory process. Conclusions: It is concluded that the role of the precautionary principle in chemicals regulation will require continued scrutiny in the future shaping of the REACH strategy. Perspectives: Continued development of robust and precaution-based chemicals regulation will have to involve both new data-generation strategies and new forms of political decision-making, with special attention given to transparency and deliberative policymaking.     

Air Quality Management in Los Angeles: Perspectives on Past and Future Emission Control Strategies

The 1988 Air Quality Management Plan was approved by the Board of the California South Coast Air Quality Management District in March 1989. The District comprises the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside, and the non-desert portion of San Bernardino county. Emissions reductions in the past have lead to significant improvement in air quality despite large increases in growth. However, the District, largely because of continuous growth, currently violates the air quality standards for ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and respirable particulate matter (PM₁₀). Based upon the AQMP, reduction of approximately 80 percent in emissions of oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds is required to bring the District into compliance with all air quality standards in the next twenty years.

Achieving compliance will necessitate the use of advanced technologies, as well as some changes in lifestyle and management practices. Advanced technologies, including the use of electric vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells, the use of cleaner burning fuels and advanced combustion modifications, and treatment of surface coatings and solvents are included in the AQMP. The Technology Advancement Office in the District was created to work with industry, universities, research institutes, and other local, state and federal agencies to identify, evaluate, and promote low emitting fuels and technologies. In addition to electricity, fuels burning cleaner than conventional gasoline or diesel are being tested to obtain emissions and durability data so that rational choices can be made for the future. Compressed natural gas, methanol and liquefied petroleum gas are considered to be cleaner burning fuels for current applications. Ethanol, butane, and various oxygenated blends are being evaluated, and the broader application of solar energy and hydrogen are being investigated.

The impact of various cleaner burning fuels on air quality is being addressed. To date, methanol is the only fuel for which results are available. These results indicate that methanol use in vehicles—with control of formaldehyde emissions below 15 mg/mile for light-duty vehicles—can provide air quality benefits for all criteria pollutants and certain air toxics. These benefits are greater for M₁₀₀ than M₈₅.

Several District advanced technology programs are described, including a reduction in emissions from paints and coatings, and the demonstration of electric vehicles.     

Nitrogen leaching and acidification during 19 years of NH₄NO₃ additions to a coniferous-forested catchment at Gårdsjön, Sweden (NITREX)

The role of nitrogen (N) in acidification of soil and water has become relatively more important as the deposition of sulphur has decreased. Starting in 1991, we have conducted a whole-catchment experiment with N addition at Gårdsjön, Sweden, to investigate the risk of N saturation. We have added 41 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ as NH₄NO₃ to the ambient 9 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in fortnightly doses by means of sprinkling system. The fraction of input N lost to runoff has increased from 0% to 10%. Increased concentrations of NO₃ in runoff partially offset the decreasing concentrations of SO₄ and slowed ecosystem recovery from acid deposition. From 1990-2002, about 5% of the total N input went to runoff, 44% to biomass, and the remaining 51% to soil. The soil N pool increased by 5%. N deposition enhanced carbon (C) sequestration at a mean C/N ratio of 42-59 g g⁻¹.