Effects of a winter legume on phosphorus,potassium, calcium and magnesium cycling in a humid subtropical agroecosystem

Phosphorus, potassium, calcium and magnesium cycling were compared in sorghum agroecosystems with winter legume (Trifolium incarnatum L.) or inorganic fertilizer nitrogen inputs. The system with fertilizer N input had winter rye (Secale cereale L.) as a winter cover crop. Nutrient uptake by winter and summer crops, double acid extractable soil nutrients, soil pH and soil ammonium/nitrate ratio were measured. The legume took up more of all nutrients than the rye and also provided higher amounts of available nutrients in soil for the subsequent summer crop. Soil pH was also increased in the clover-N treatment. Nutrient uptake by winter crops is important for reducing leaching losses and chemical fixation of nutrients in humid subtropical regions.     

中国西北地区农林复合经营的保护与发展

中国西北地区深居内陆,区域生态系统脆弱,干旱、水土流失和风沙灾害等问题频繁,严重影响了区域社会经济的发展与生态文明建设进程。发展复合农林业是林业发展的新思路,是解决区域生态环境与落后社会经济问题恶性循环的有效途径。论文根据西北地区特殊的自然、经济、社会条件以及农林复合经营发展现状,结合农林复合系统科研、生产实践及农村经济发展的需要,将西北干旱地区农林复合经营划分为草原风沙区、荒漠绿洲区、黄土高原区和青藏高原区4个类型区,并分析概述了各类型区复合农林业发展的现状和特点。根据农林复合系统多层次、多组分、多功能和多目标的特点,提出了基于林分起源、生物组分、生长周期和主导功能标尺的农林复合经营类型划分方法。对目前西北地区农林复合经营发展中存在的规划、理论研究和推广应用等问题提出了相应对策,以期为区域农林复合经营的保护与发展提供借鉴。     

A review: long-term effects of agricultural systems on soil biochemical and microbial parameters

This paper provides a review of recent developments on assessing the effect of agricultural systems on long-term productivity of soils. Cultivation of soils, besides affecting soil chemistry and structure, reduces biological activity due to the reduction of macroaggregates which provides an important microhabitat for microbial activity. Indirect evidence suggests that soil amendments such as animal and green manures, and plant diversity (crop rotations) may be more important in maintaining soil microbial activity/diversity than conservation tillage in monocultural systems. There is increasing evidence that crop rotation promotes crop productivity by suppressing deleterious microorganisms that flourish under monoculture. Additions of inorganic fertilizers can increase soil biological activity because of an increased plant biomass production which upon incorporation stimulates soil biological activity. Conversely, limited evidence suggests that repeated applications of inorganic fertilizer nutrients can suppress production of certain soil enzymes that are involved in cycling of a given nutrient. The observed transitory decrease in crop productivity during conversion from chemical intensive input to alternative systems (greater reliance on biological resources) may be due to the initial diminished biological potentials of conventionally managed soils to efficiently cycle and mineralize organic nutrient sources. This review reaffirms the continuing need for the maintenance of existing long-term experimental sites and establishment of new studies in major agroecosystems throughout the world.     

Farmers’ nutrient management practices in indigenous cropping systems in southern Cameroon

With increasing population densities, food production needs to be increased. A common response of farmers is to shorten fallow periods, which can lead to a decline in crop yields, due to incomplete nutrient replenishment. However, whether farmers change their management of soil and nutrients according to the fallow length is not known. A survey was carried out in southern Cameroon in 1995 to establish factors determining farmers’ nutrient management practices (NMPs). Three classes of indigenous NMPs were identified: crop placement, mulching, and the use of inputs. Crop placement comprised intentional cultivation of certain crops in ash patches or near to tree trunks and stumps. Mulching was done with weeds and crop residues, on the soil surface next to crops or in planting holes. Crop placement was found in 88.8% of fields and mulching in 57.4%, while inputs were used in only 1.7%. Nutrient management seemed to be restricted to an optimal allocation of crops to nutrient sources in the field.Relationships were weak between the frequency of crop placement or mulching and indices of land or labor availability. Fallow length seems to be negatively correlated to crop placement at rotten trunks or stumps or in ash patches and positively to placement near recently felled trees. Crop placement and mulching of crop residues were used less often in simplified crop associations than in traditional intercrops. Nutrient inputs were mainly given to monocrops. Application of purchased inputs concentrated on commercial crops.Most respondents knew the advantages and risks of currently practiced methods, but often lacked information on the use of locally available internal inputs (refuse, kitchen ash, manure). Application of internal inputs was considered too labor demanding. The use of purchased inputs was limited by high prices. Soil fertility was in most cases not regarded as a problem.     

Geographic distribution and environmental characterization of livestock production systems in Eastern Africa

The central role played by livestock in the livelihoods of rural households in the developing world is seldom fully appreciated by policy makers, development agencies and donors. Knowledge gaps in the geographic distribution and environmental determinants of farming systems, especially if viewed through the livestock lens, compound this problem. We have produced a map of pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming systems across Eastern Africa, by analysing datasets collected in the framework of livelihood analysis. Input data were gathered between 2000 and 2007 by various emergency and development agencies for Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and parts of Ethiopia and Sudan. A quantitative definition of the production systems is adopted, based on the ratio of livestock- to crop-derived income. The resulting livelihood-based map of livestock production systems was compared through correspondence analysis to an alternative livestock production systems map, produced independently from environmental data. Convergence between the two mapping approaches was evident. The geographic distribution of the livestock production systems was also modelled using multivariate analysis of remotely sensed and other geospatial datasets. Models show high statistical accuracy, and were thus used to fill the gaps in the observed distribution of livestock production systems. Finally, selected environmental factors underpinning the systems (agro-climatology, human and livestock populations and land cover) were analysed in detail, enabling the livestock production systems to be characterized in terms of them. The regional scope of the map, as well as its direct link with a vast amount of livelihood information, render it a valuable tool for a range of development and research applications, including those related to global change.     

Organic inputs for soil fertility management in tropical agroecosystems: application of an organic resource database

Organic resources play a critical role in both short-term nutrient availability and longer-term maintenance of soil organic matter in most smaller holder farming systems in the tropics. Despite this importance, there is little predictive understanding for the management of organic inputs in tropical agroecosystems. In this paper, an organic resource database (ORD) is introduced that contains information on organic resource quality parameters including macronutrient, lignin and polyphenol contents of fresh leaves, litter, stems and/or roots from almost 300 species found in tropical agroecosystems. Data on the soil and climate from where the material was collected are also included, as are decomposition and nutrient release rates of many of the organic inputs. Examples of uses of ORD are provided in the paper: (1) nutrient contents (including median values and ranges) and other resource quality parameters of farmyard manure and crop residues are compared to that of alternative nutrient sources such as different plant parts and plant types; (2) nutrient stocks found in farm boundary hedges are estimated and evaluated as a source of nutrients for soil fertility management; (3) hypotheses regarding the indices and critical values of N, lignin, and polyphenol contents for predicting N release rates are tested; (4) organic materials for soil fertility management experiments are selected. This database, when coupled with models and decision support tools, will help advance organic matter management for soil fertility improvement from an empirical to a predictive practice.     

Energy inputs in agricultural systems of China

An analysis of the energy inputs in corn, rice, sorghum, wheat, soybean, and millet in northeastern China indicates that most of the crops are produced with about one half the fossil energy inputs compared with those in the United States. The inputs of labor, however, are 10–100-fold greater than those in the United States. China also uses 85 to more than 500 h of horse power per hectare in producing its crop and this helps reduce the fossil energy inputs in crop production. A small increase in the use of machinery energy (3%) at appropriate times in the cropping systems could reduce labor inputs by about one third.     

北京郊区农田生态系统服务功能价值的评估研究

由于耕地面积显著减少,京郊农田生态系统总服务价值由1996年的4513384.07×10⁴元下降到2002年的3426990.22×10⁴元,减少10⁸6393.85×10⁴元。其中粮食作物的各项服务功能价值在逐年降低,其它作物有不同程度的提高。6年间农业总服务价值平均值大约是其农业增加值的8倍,相当于8元服务价值产出1元经济生产力。6年间接价值平均为3461605.08×10⁴元,大约为直接价值的6倍。农民承担了保护耕地资源的责任,却没有获得相应收益。从构成来看,在京郊现有耕作制度下,提供农产品份额为12.41%;调节大气成分和净化环境价值占据绝对主体,两者之和占农田生态系统总服务价值的77%(净化环境占37.51%,调节大气成分占39.48%);土壤积累有机质价值为4.4%;农业观光游憩价值为3.8%;维持养分循环为1.27%;蓄水功能为2.21%;而保持土壤服务功能最低,仅占0.01%。     

太湖流域肥料施用策略调整对典型作物系统氮磷流失的影响

太湖流域种植业肥料施用强度普遍较高，且以化学肥料为主要形态.因肥料投入不适宜，种植业氮、磷流失问题显著.2015年以来，各地区积极对种植业肥料施用策略进行调整，但当前工作主要基于粮食作物系统且仍停留在化肥施用总量削减和有机肥施用面积提升层面上，缺少菜地、果园、茶园作物系统的相关数据以及对农业环境问题的响应.对此，以苏州市吴中区为太湖流域典型农区代表，研究2019～2021年稻田、菜地、果园和茶园这4类作物系统肥料策略调整对氮、磷流失的影响.结果表明，肥料源养分投入强度的调控是决定氮、磷流失的关键；适宜的有机肥替代比例有助于降低氮、磷流失风险，但有机肥施用需考虑时机并尽可能搭配农用机械.肥料效率是兼顾农业生产过程环境友好、生产主体经济效益的核心，也是后期肥料施用策略调整的导向.稻田系统的肥料施用策略调整应重视养分中不同元素配比，菜地系统应以种植结构调整为抓手，茶园、果园系统可从复合系统视角制定同时满足茶、果生长的施肥策略，助力构建满足农业绿色发展需求的作物系统.     

论中国农业持续发展研究中的若干问题

“持续农业的研究对象”、“农牧结合问题”、“粮食问题”“农业生产布局”以及“中国农业生产效率”一直是我国学术界与政策决策阶层争论与关注的热点。五大“热点”不仅影响我国农业生产的正确决策,也影响着我国农业研究的方向。作者根据近年研究实践,结合国内外的大量研究成果,从理论与实践２个方面对上述问题进行了实事求是的分析、论述。①“持续农业”是学术术语,并不是农业替代模式,持续农业的研究对象则是促进农业持续发展的技术体系与管理战略,以此促进农业向环境健康与安全的方向发展,并不是“创造”一种新的农业生产模式完全替代常规农业；②我国农牧结合研究依然停留在古时期“种植业提供饲料,畜牧业提供畜粪还田培肥地力”这一传统观念阶段。农牧结合研究应该在我国农、牧生产专业化进一步深化的基础上,从饲料能量蛋白质供给与消费平衡这一深层次上优化和把握农牧结合强度及其协调性,同时要高度重视我国畜牧业生产专业化可能引发的农、牧“分离”及其潜在的环境问题；③有计划地节制食物消费的增长速度、引导膳食结构的转变与合理引导并积极寻找粮食替代资源,是解决我国粮食生产在经济高速增长前提下粮食供需缺口不断扩张的主要途径；④我国种植业生产发展空间格局的重心应摆     

Alleviating land degradation and increasing cereal and livestock production in North Africa and the Middle East using annual medicago pasture

The winter rainfall zone of North Africa and the Middle East is suffering from acute soil erosion combined with declining livestock production and almost static cereal yields. Experience on projects and commercial farms throughout the region has shown that the annual medicago (Medicago species) pasture system first developed in southern Australia is climatically suited to the region and can be used either in rotation with a cereal crop or in the marginal rainfall areas of the steppe as a permanent pasture.The annual medicago pasture will increase the forage available for livestock and increase the nitrogen in the soil for subsequent cereal crops. The build-up in organic matter and the protection provided by the dense stand of annual medicago will reduce soil erosion to a minimum. The high economic returns achieved relatively quickly provide a strong incentive to farmers and livestock owners to adopt the system. The annual medicago pasture can provide a means of fulfilling production and conservation objectives simultaneously.     

Transition to large-scale organic vegetable production in the Salinas Valley, California

Studying the management strategies suited to large-scale organic production, particularly during the mandated 3-year transition period from conventional management, is a unique research challenge. Organic production traditionally relies on small, diverse plantings and complex management responses to cope with soil fertility and pest pressures, so research should represent decision-making options of an organic grower at the farm scale. This study analyzes crop, soil, pest and management changes during the organic transition period on two ranches (40 and 47 ha) in the Salinas Valley, California in cooperation with a large conventional vegetable producer, Tanimura and Antle, Inc. Permanent transects were established across the two ranches at the onset of adoption of organic practices, and soil and plants were sampled at harvest of almost all crops, while all management operations were recorded by the co-operator. The 10 ha blocks were divided into many small plantings, and 17 different cash crop and cover crop species were planted during the transition period. Management inputs consisted of a range of organic fertilizers and amendments, sprinkler and drip irrigation, cultivation and hand-hoeing, and several types of organic pesticides. Results from the 3-year period followed these general trends: increase in soil biological indicators (microbial biomass and arbuscular mycorrhizae), low soil nitrate pools, adequate crop nutrients, minor disease and weed problems, and sporadic mild insect damage. Multivariate statistical analyses indicated that some crops and cultivars consistently produced higher yields than others, relative to the maximum yield for a given crop. Multi-factor contingency tables showed clear differences in insect and disease damage between crop taxa. Although Tanimura and Antle, Inc. used some of the principles of organic farming (e.g., crop diversity, crop rotation, and organic matter (OM) management), they also relied on substitution-based management, such as fertigation with soluble nutrients, initially heavy applications of organic pesticides, and use of inputs derived from off-farm sources. Their initial production of a large number of crop taxa in small plantings at staggered intervals proved to be an effective strategy for avoiding risks from low yields or crop failure and allowed them to move towards a smaller number of select, successful crops towards the end of the transition. This study demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale producers to transition to organic practices in a manner that was conducive to both production goals and environmental quality, i.e., increased soil C pools, low soil nitrate, and absence of synthetic pesticides.     

Global and regional potential for bioenergy from agricultural and forestry residue biomass

As co-products, agricultural and forestry residues represent a potential low cost, low carbon, source for bioenergy. A method is developed for estimating the maximum sustainable amount of energy potentially available from agricultural and forestry residues by converting crop production statistics into associated residue, while allocating some of this resource to remain on the field to mitigate erosion and maintain soil nutrients. Currently, we estimate that the world produces residue biomass that could be sustainably harvested and converted into nearly 50 EJ yr⁻¹ of energy. The top three countries where this resource is estimated to be most abundant are currently net energy importers: China, the United States (US), and India. The global potential from residue biomass is estimated to increase to approximately 50–100 EJ yr⁻¹ by mid- to late- century, depending on physical assumptions such as of future crop yields and the amount of residue sustainably harvestable. The future market for biomass residues was simulated using the Object-Oriented Energy, Climate, and Technology Systems Mini Climate Assessment Model (O^bjECTS MiniCAM). Utilization of residue biomass as an energy source is projected for the next century under different climate policy scenarios. Total global use of residue biomass is estimated to be 20–100 EJ yr⁻¹ by mid- to late- century, depending on the presence of a climate policy and the economics of harvesting, aggregating, and transporting residue. Much of this potential is in developing regions of the world, including China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and India.     

Long-term changes in soil fertility in organic arable farming systems in England,with particular reference to phosphorus and potassium

Organic farming has undergone significant expansion in Europe over the last decade and it is often seen as a sustainable alternative to intensive agricultural systems. If it is to be truly sustainable, it must maintain levels of soil fertility sufficient for economic crop production in the long-term, whilst also protecting the environment. This paper presents results comparing soils managed organically for at least 15 years, with soils under conventional management, on four arable farms in England. There were no significant differences in total soil organic matter, total nitrogen or C:N ratio between the conventionally and organically managed soils. However, concentrations of extractable potassium and phosphorus were significantly lower in soils managed organically. The largest difference between the conventional and organic fields in potassium concentration was on the oldest organic farm. These results support the argument that organic mixed arable systems are mining reserves of potassium and phosphorus, built up during conventional management, and that changes to organic management practices to increase inputs of potassium and phosphorus are required, if long-term declines in soil fertility, and thus, yields are to be avoided.     

Reconnecting crop and cattle farming to reduce nitrogen losses to river water of an intensive agricultural catchment (Seine basin,France): past,present and future

Nitrate and pesticide contamination of surface and groundwater has become a major problem in intensive farming regions in Europe, with nitrate concentrations reaching values above the standard defined in 2000 by the European Water Framework Directive. In the Seine basin, a major issue is the closure and abandonment of drinking-water wells, which force water managers and drinking-water producers to explore solutions for water resource protection. Organic farming has appeared as a credible alternative to conventional farming, and this study explores the potential of organic farming to reconcile agricultural production and water quality. On the basis of agricultural statistics, survey questionnaires and experimental data, the nitrogen soil surface balance (N-SSB) has been established at the scale of a small 104-km² catchment (The Orgeval sub-basin), representative of the intensive cash crop farming in the Seine basin. The N-surplus for arable land in specialized organic cash crop systems has been found to be half that of current conventional systems (15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ versus 30 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). The N-yield in organic systems is 21% lower than in conventional systems, but total fertilization (mostly symbiotic N fixation) is also 26% lower. Whereas 2–3 years of forage legume (e.g., alfalfa) as a starter crop of the typical 7- to 10-year diversified rotation builds up N soil fertility and helps prevent weeds without pesticides, the existence of an outlet for this fodder production is a limiting factor for the economic sustainability and the environmental benefits of these farming systems. Therefore, we explored the possibility of a reconnection of livestock and crop farming systems in the Orgeval catchment, a traditional dairy farming and Brie cheese production region. We calculated the N-SSB for this type of a reconnected livestock and cropping system and found a value very close to the specialized organic cash crop system with full utilization of fodder production, leading to profitable animal production, essentially as milk in this farm design. This reconnected system is compared with the estimated situation in 1955 before separation of plant and livestock production. Furthermore, the N-SSB values were converted into infiltrating sub-root concentrations and used as a boundary condition to a biogeochemical model. Organic cropping and organic reconnected livestock cropping systems result in a 50% reduction of surface water nitrate concentrations, a surface water quality 20% better than that reconstructed for 1955, with an overall higher protein production.     

Researching the agroecosystem/environmental interface

This special issue of Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment recognizes the important contribution of Dr. J.W. Sturrock to agroecosystem and environmental research through his long-term role as Editor-in-Chief (1982–2000). An historical overview of agroecosystem and environmental research is provided to illustrate the continued growth of scientific endeavor in this area, and to show its importance for a better understanding of ecological interactions within agroecosystems and especially at the agroecosystem/environmental interface. The papers collected in this special issue are selected to illustrate the breadth and diversity of agroecosystem and environmental research. They can be placed in the following four areas: the environmental impact of farming systems; the management of organic resources, the link between the ecology of farming systems and the environment; and the ecological interactions that occur within or between agricultural systems. Intensification of food production, population growth, technological change, changing land-use patterns, and global change will further impact the structure and functional properties of agroecosystems, and intensify the interaction between agriculture and the environment, and will present a major continuing need for research in the 21st century.     

Multi-level energy analysis of emerging technologies: a case study in new materials for lithium ion batteries

A range of new nanomaterials to replace the active materials in lithium ion batteries are currently being studied and employed in an attempt to overcome various performance limitations of previous technologies. Nanomaterial production and manufacturing techniques appear to fit into a general trend towards more energy intensive production methods for high-tech goods. This does not necessarily imply an increase in lifecycle energy use; artefacts that consume or transform energy during use could possibly regain this increased initial input via increased efficiency in use. In particular, this paper highlights that larger gains could be possible if the artefact in question allows a given service to be provided via an alternative and more efficient system entirely.The lifecycle energy efficiencies of lithium ion batteries constructed from several new advanced materials are analysed with several different system boundaries. Although nanomaterials require more energy input to produce, the implications of nanomaterials for energy flows in the use phase (i.e. driving), and higher levels such as the architecture of future transport fuel production systems are much larger in magnitude than the initial lifecycle inputs for producing the materials in question.     

Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability

Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems. When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water.     

Bio-char Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems – A Review

The application of bio-char (charcoal or biomass-derived black carbon (C)) to soil is proposed as a novel approach to establish a significant, long-term, sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems. Apart from positive effects in both reducing emissions and increasing the sequestration of greenhouse gases, the production of bio-char and its application to soil will deliver immediate benefits through improved soil fertility and increased crop production. Conversion of biomass C to bio-char C leads to sequestration of about 50% of the initial C compared to the low amounts retained after burning (3%) and biological decomposition (< 10–20% after 5–10 years), therefore yielding more stable soil C than burning or direct land application of biomass. This efficiency of C conversion of biomass to bio-char is highly dependent on the type of feedstock, but is not significantly affected by the pyrolysis temperature (within 350–500 ^∘C common for pyrolysis). Existing slash-and-burn systems cause significant degradation of soil and release of greenhouse gases and opportunies may exist to enhance this system by conversion to slash-and-char systems. Our global analysis revealed that up to 12% of the total anthropogenic C emissions by land use change (0.21 Pg C) can be off-set annually in soil, if slash-and-burn is replaced by slash-and-char. Agricultural and forestry wastes such as forest residues, mill residues, field crop residues, or urban wastes add a conservatively estimated 0.16 Pg C yr⁻¹. Biofuel production using modern biomass can produce a bio-char by-product through pyrolysis which results in 30.6 kg C sequestration for each GJ of energy produced. Using published projections of the use of renewable fuels in the year 2100, bio-char sequestration could amount to 5.5–9.5 Pg C yr⁻¹ if this demand for energy was met through pyrolysis, which would exceed current emissions from fossil fuels (5.4 Pg C yr⁻¹). Bio-char soil management systems can deliver tradable C emissions reduction, and C sequestered is easily accountable, and verifiable.     

Estimating net primary production and annual plant carbon inputs, and modelling future changes in soil carbon stocks in arable farmlands of northern Japan

Soil C sequestration in croplands is deemed to be one of the most promising greenhouse gas mitigation options for Japan's agriculture. In this context, changes in soil C stocks in northern Japan's arable farming area over the period of 1971-2010, specifically in the region's typical Andosol (volcanic ash-derived) and non-Andosol soils, were simulated using soil-type-specific versions of the Rothamsted carbon model (RothC). The models were then used to predict the effects, over the period of 2011-2050, of three potential management scenarios: (i) baseline: maintenance of present crop residue returns and green manure crops, as well as composted cattle manure C inputs (24-34 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ applied on 3-55% of arable land according to crop), (ii) cattle manure: all arable fields receive 20 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ of composted cattle manure, increased C inputs from crop residues and present C inputs from green manure are assumed, and (iii) minimum input: all above-ground crop residues removed, no green manure crop, no cattle manure applied. Above- and below-ground residue biomass C inputs contributed by 8 major crops, and oats employed as a green manure crop, were drawn from yield statistics recorded at the township level and crop-specific allometric relationships (e.g. ratio of above-ground residue biomass to harvested biomass on a dry weight basis). Estimated crop net primary production (NPP) ranged from 1.60 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for adzuki bean to 8.75 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for silage corn. For the whole region (143 × 10³ ha), overall NPP was estimated at 952 ± 60 Gg C yr⁻¹ (6.66 ± 0.42 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Plant C inputs to the soil also varied widely amongst the crops, ranging from 0.50 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for potato to 3.26 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for winter wheat. Annual plant C inputs to the soil were estimated at 360 ± 45 Gg C yr⁻¹ (2.52 ± 0.32 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), representing 38% of the cropland NPP. The RothC simulations suggest that the region's soil C stock (0-30 cm horizon), across all soils, has decreased from 13.96 Tg C (107.5 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) in 1970 to 12.46 Tg C (96.0 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) in 2010. For the baseline, cattle manure and minimum input scenarios, soil C stocks of 12.13, 13.27 and 9.82 Tg C, respectively, were projected for 2050. Over the period of 2011-2050, compared to the baseline scenario, soil C was sequestered (+0.219 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) by enhanced cattle manure application, but was lost (−0.445 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) under the minimum input scenario. The effect of variations of input data (monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, plant C inputs and cattle manure C inputs) on the uncertainty of model outputs for each scenario was assessed using a Monte Carlo approach. Taking into account the uncertainty (standard deviation as % of the mean) for the model's outputs for 2050 (5.1-6.1%), it is clear that the minimum input scenario would lead to a rapid decrease in soil C stocks for arable farmlands in northern Japan.