Attitudes towards risk and the optimal exploitation of an exhaustible resource

The exploitation of a nonrenewable natural resource, such as petroleum or mineral ores, is analyzed in a stochastic framework with price uncertainty. The market setting may be either monopolistic or competitive. We demonstrate that the rate of extraction varies directly with the resource owner's willingness to accept risk. Rish-preferring owners use the resource more rapidly than risk-neutral owners, who in turn deplete the resource more rapidly than risk-averse owners. It is also seen that the usual practice of increasing the discount rate to account for risk induces a more rapid rate of resource use, when in fact a slower rate of depletion is desired.     

Modeling the population dynamics of capybara Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris: a first step towards a management plan

Capybara (Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris) is the largest living rodent, widely distributed in South America, with a considerable potential as an economic resource. There are large populations in the region of Esteros del Ibera that could be exploited in a sustainable manner and contribute positively to the development of the region. Such exploitation requires to be done responsibly and following a specially designed management plan. In the particular case of wildlife management, a sustainable exploitation of a given species requires knowledge of its dynamics, its density in the area, and its vital rates, as well as understanding how the natural environment will respond to the proposed manipulation. It is also important to determine which environmental variables lead the population dynamics in each region. A mathematical model is a very convenient tool for analyzing possible strategies.This work presents a matrix population model structured in five stages. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses of the model provide an understanding of the effects of differentiated class-dependent survival and growth probabilities on the life cycle. A harvest term has been included in the model with the purpose of evaluating the sustainability of a given exploitation scenario or comparing different harvest strategies. The different strategies depend on the exploitation pattern, the exploitation intensity, and the season in which the harvest takes place.The purpose is to formulate a simple tool that can be understood by a manager without specific training. Hence, the software interface was specially designed for a user with elementary knowledge of vital parameters of the species.     

Uniform predation risk in nature: common,inconspicuous, and a source of error to predation risk experiments

Previous studies indicate that when predation risk is uniform across habitats, foragers concentrate their exploitation in fewer patches. Although uniform predation risk may seem rare in nature, some scenarios might cause it. Testing all scenarios in a single experiment is unfeasible; therefore, we developed a model that points whether concentration of exploitation in specific habitats due to uniform risk requires parameter values similar to what is found in literature. This model was based on Brown’s (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 22:37–47, 1988) fitness function but rescaled to multiple habitats and predators, including uniform risk predators. Deriving function’s maximum allowed comparisons with giving-up density studies. Results showed that uniform predation risk had a u-shaped effect in habitat exploitation, causing a concentration of habitat exploitation at probabilities of survival from 0.2 to 0.8. However, the length of this interval and degree of concentration depended on the value of safety to forager fitness. Heterogeneous, nonuniform, predation risk decreases habitat exploitation where it was higher, therefore suppressing the effect of uniform risk on prey behavior. Time spent in the focal habitat and metabolic costs reduced the detectability of habitat concentration, while total time did not. We also found that uniform risk reduced accuracy of heterogeneous risk measurements. Future studies should aim to control all possible predators, as even the mild ones can induce complex behavior.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

Spatial and mass balanced trophic models of La Rinconada Marine Reserve (SE Pacific coast), a protected benthic ecosystem: Management strategy assessment

Steady-state, dynamic, and spatial models were constructed for the benthic system of La Rinconada Marine Reserve off northern Chile (SE Pacific coast). We examined data on biomass, P/B ratios, catches, food spectrum, consumption, and the dynamics of commercial and non-commercial populations using three theoretical frameworks: Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace. The biomass of the scallop Argopecten purpuratus and the clam Tagelus dombeii were the most relevant compartments of the studied ecosystem. Among the carnivores, the functional crab group Cancer spp. was the most relevant. The Rhodophyta was the dominant macroalga compartment of the system. The results obtained using mixed trophic impacts (MTI) showed that the predatory snail Thais chocolata propagated higher magnitudes of direct and indirect effects on the other species or functional groups. The sea star Luidia magallanica and Rhodophyta had the least effects on the remaining compartments. According to the Ecosim estimates (increasing mortality by fishing), the scallop A. purpuratus had the highest impact on the other compartments. The Ecospace model showed similar qualitative and quantitative effects for changes in biomass under three different exploitation scenarios (by subsystems and globally). Nevertheless, the greatest changes were provoked by using the top-down control and the vulnerabilities estimated by Ecosim. System recovery times were highest with increased mortality of the asteroid L. magallanica and the carnivorous snail T. chocolata, suggesting that the sea star could be considered to be a top predator with a top-down control. The F_MSY estimated for the scallop A. purpuratus was close to the F_i originally entered in Ecopath, limiting the design and execution of an exploitation plan within ecologically sustainable boundaries. The situation was different (F_MSY ? F_i) for the other commercial species, making possible multi-species exploitation programs. The Ecospace trophic-spatially explicit model shows a similar pattern of direct and indirect effects generated when exerting exploitation separately by subsystems. Therefore, habitat rotation of fisheries is not justified.     

Application of a Random Forest algorithm to predict spatial distribution of the potential yield of Ruditapes philippinarum in the Venice lagoon, Italy

We present a modelling framework that combines machine learning techniques and Geographic Information Systems to support the management of an important aquaculture species, Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum). We use the Venice lagoon (Italy), the first site in Europe for the production of R. philippinarum, to illustrate the potential of this modelling approach. To investigate the relationship between the yield of R. philippinarum and a set of environmental factors, we used a Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model was tuned with a large data set (n = 1698) and validated by an independent data set (n = 841). Overall, the model provided good predictions of site-specific yields and the analysis of marginal effect of predictors showed substantial agreement among the modelled responses and available ecological knowledge for R. philippinarum. The most influent environmental factors for yield estimation were percentage of sand in the sediment, salinity, and water depth. Our results agree with findings from other North Adriatic lagoons. The application of the fitted RF model to continuous maps of all the environmental variables allowed estimates of the potential yield for the whole basin. Such a spatial representation enabled site-specific estimates of yield in different farming areas within the lagoon. We present a possible management application of our model by estimating the potential yield under the current farming distribution and comparing it to a proposed re-organization of the farming areas. Our analysis suggests a reduction of total yield is likely to result from the proposed re-organization.     

Resource distributions affect social learning on multiple timescales

We study how learning is shaped by foraging opportunities and self-organizing processes and how this impacts on the effects of “copying what neighbors eat” on multiple timescales. We use an individual-based model with a rich environment, where group foragers learn what to eat. We vary foraging opportunities by changing local variation in resources, studying copying in environments with pure patches, varied patches, and uniform distributed resources. We find that copying can help individuals explore the environment by sharing information, but this depends on how foraging opportunities shape the learning process. Copying has the greatest impact in varied patches, where local resource variation makes learning difficult, but local resource abundance makes copying easy. In contrast, copying is redundant or excessive in pure patches where learning is easy, and mostly ineffective in uniform environments where learning is difficult. Our results reveal that the mediation of copying behavior by individual experience is crucial for the impact of copying. Moreover, we find that the dynamics of social learning at short timescales shapes cultural phenomena. In fact, the integration of learning on short and long timescales generates cumulative cultural improvement in diet. Our results therefore provide insight into how and when such processes can arise. These insights need to be taken into account when considering behavioral patterns in nature.

The use of simulation modeling to evaluate the mechanisms responsible for the nutritional benefits of food-for-protection mutualisms

In some mutualisms, a plant or insect provides a food resource in exchange for protection from herbivores, competitors or predators. This food resource can benefit the consumer, but the relative importance of different mechanisms responsible for this benefit is unclear. We used a colony-level simulation model to test the relative importance of increased larval production, increased worker foraging and increased worker survival for colony growth of fire ants, Solenopsis invicta, that consume plant-based foods. Increased food for larvae had the largest effect on colony growth of S. invicta followed by decreased worker mortality. Increased foraging rate had a small effect in the simulation model but data from a small laboratory experiment and another published study suggest that plant-based foods have little or no effect on foraging rates of S. invicta. Colony growth steadily increased the longer plant-based food was available and colonies were most responsive to plant-based food in the early summer (i.e., June). Our results demonstrate that population level simulation modeling can be a useful tool for examining the ecology of mutualistic interactions and the mechanisms through which species interact.     

A free lunch in the commons

We derive conditions under which raising costs through a regulatory constraint or a fully expropriated tax can increase the profits arising from a common-pool resource. The basic model assumes a fixed number of identical agents with linear costs selling in a single period at an exogenous price. A necessary and sufficient condition for a cost increase to be profitable is that aggregate output from the resource be locally convex in aggregate effort. We also show that cost increases can be profitable even if price is endogenous, agents are heterogeneous, entry is costless, or agents are playing a Markov-perfect equilibrium of a dynamic game. We also discuss more general welfare implications of the result along with its relation to existing results for a Cournot oligopoly.     

Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?

Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. We find that counter-geoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positive welfare effect). We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries.     

Spatial memory, habitat auto-facilitation and the emergence of fractal home range patterns

Animals interact with their habitat in a manner which involves both negative and positive feedback mechanisms. We apply a specific modeling approach, “multi-scaled random walk”, for the scenario where a spatially explicit positive feedback process emerges from a combination of a spatial memory-dependent tendency to return to familiar patches and a consequently objective or subjective improvement of the quality of these patches (habitat auto-facilitation). In addition to the potential for local resource improvement from physically altering a patch, primarily known from the ecology of grazing ungulates, auto-facilitation from site fidelity may also embed more subtle subjective, individual-specific advantages from patch familiarity. Under the condition of resource superabundance, fitness gain from intra-home range patch fidelity creates a self-reinforcing use of the preferred patches on expense of a broader foraging in a priori equally favorable patches. Through this process, our simulations show that a spatially fractal dispersion of accumulated locations of the individual will emerge under the given model assumptions. Based on a conjecture that intra-home range patch fidelity depends on spatial memory we apply the multi-scaled random walk model to construct a spatially explicit habitat suitability parameter H_ij, which quantifies the dispersion of the generally most constraining resource from the individual's perspective. An intra-home range set of observed H-scores, H_obs, can then be estimated from a simple 2-scale calculation that is derived from the local dispersion of fixes. We show how the spatially explicit habitat utilization index H_obs not necessarily correlates positively with the local density fluctuations of fixes. The H-index solves some well-known problems from using the pattern of local densities of telemetry fixes - the classic utilization distribution - as a proxy variable for relative intra-home range habitat quality and resource selection. A pilot study on a set of telemetry fixes collected from a herd of free-ranging domestic sheep with overlapping summer home ranges illustrates how the H-index may be estimated and interpreted as a first-level approach towards a more extensive analysis of intra-home range habitat resource availability and patch preferences. Spatial memory in combination with site fidelity requires a modeling framework that explicitly describes the property of positive feedback mechanism under auto-facilitation in a spatio-temporally explicit manner.     

Social learning of predators by coral reef fish: does observer number influence acquisition of information?

Prey that are capable of continuously learning the identity of new predators whilst adjusting the intensity of their responses to match their level of risk, are often at a substantive advantage. Learning about predators can occur through direct experience or through social learning from experienced individuals. Social learning provides individuals with an effective means of acquiring information while reducing the costs associated with direct learning. Under a natural setting, social learning is likely to occur between more than two individuals. As such, investigating the effect that group size has on the ability of individuals to acquire information is vital to understanding social learning dynamics. Given the characteristics of coral reefs and the biology of coral reef fishes, these habitats are an ideal medium to test whether group size affects the transmission of information. Using newly settled damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis), we examined whether the number of observers present influences transmission of information. We showed that: (1) predator recognition is socially transmitted from predator-experienced to predator-naïve individuals regardless of group size, and that (2) the level of response displayed by the observer does not differ following learning in different sized groups. Our study highlights that information on predator identities is able to be passed onto group members quickly without a dilution of information content.     

Pathogen-induced hatching and population-specific life-history response to waterborne cues in brown trout (Salmo trutta)

Hatching is an important niche shift, and embryos in a wide range of taxa can either accelerate or delay this life-history switch in order to avoid stage-specific risks. Such behavior can occur in response to stress itself and to chemical cues that allow anticipation of stress. We studied the genetic organization of this phenotypic plasticity and tested whether there are differences among populations and across environments in order to learn more about the evolutionary potential of stress-induced hatching. As a study species, we chose the brown trout (Salmo trutta; Salmonidae). Gametes were collected from five natural populations (within one river network) and used for full-factorial in vitro fertilizations. The resulting embryos were either directly infected with Pseudomonas fluorescens or were exposed to waterborne cues from P. fluorescens-infected conspecifics. We found that direct inoculation with P. fluorescens increased embryonic mortality and induced hatching in all host populations. Exposure to waterborne cues revealed population-specific responses. We found significant additive genetic variation for hatching time, and genetic variation in trait plasticity. In conclusion, hatching is induced in response to infection and can be affected by waterborne cues of infection, but populations and families differ in their reaction to the latter.     

The introduction of Littorina littorea to British Columbia, Canada: potential impacts and the importance of biotic resistance by native predators

Although the establishment and spread of non-indigenous species depends upon survival in the face of novel environmental conditions and novel biological interactions, relatively little attention has been focused on the specific role of native predators in limiting invasion success. The European common periwinkle, Littorina littorea, was recently introduced to the Pacific coast of Canada and provides a case study of an introduction into an area with an important predator guild (sea stars) that is functionally minor in the invader’s native habitat. Here, we assess the likelihood of establishment, spread, and negative ecological impact of this introduced gastropod, with an emphasis on the role of native sea stars as agents of biotic resistance. Size frequency distributions and local market availability suggest that L. littorea was most likely introduced via the live seafood trade. Non-native hitchhikers (e.g., the trematode Cryptocotyle lingua) were found on/in both market and field specimens. Laboratory studies and field observations confirmed that L. littorea can survive seasonal low salinity in Vancouver, British Columbia. Periwinkles also readily consumed native Ulva, suggesting that periwinkles could impact native communities via herbivory or resource competition. Unlike native gastropods, however, L. littorea lacked behavioural avoidance responses to Northeast Pacific predatory sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus and Pycnopodia helianthoides), and sea star predation rates on L. littorea were much higher than predation rates on native turban snails (Chlorostoma funebralis) in common garden experiments. We therefore expect periwinkle establishment in British Columbia to be limited to areas with low predator density, as is seen in its field distribution to date. We caution that this conclusion may understate the importance of the L. littorea introduction if it also serves as a vector for additional non-indigenous species such as C. lingua.     

The role of per-capita productivity in the evolution of small colony sizes in ants

The evolution of colony size in social insects is influenced by both extrinsic and colony-intrinsic factors. An important intrinsic trait, per-capita productivity, often declines in larger colonies. This pattern, known as Michener’s paradox, can limit the growth of insect societies. In this study, we first describe this problem, survey its occurrence across different ant species, and present a case study of eight cavity-dwelling ants with very small colony sizes. In these species, colonies might never reach sizes at which per-capita productivity decreases. However, in six out of the eight focal species, per-capita productivity did decline with increasing size, in accordance with other studies on per-capita productivity in ants. Several mechanisms, such as resource availability or nest-site limitation, may explain the decrease in per-capita productivity with increases in colony size in our focal species. In these central-place foragers, the individual foraging mode is expected to lead to an increase in travel time as colonies grow. We suggest that polydomy, the concomitant occupation of several nest sites, could serve as a potential strategy to overcome this limitation. Indeed, for one species, we show that polydomy can help to circumvent the reduction in productivity with increasing colony size, suggesting that limited resource availability causes the observed decrease in per-capita productivity. Finally, we discuss the influence of other factors, such as the nesting ecology and colony homeostasis, on the evolution of colony size in these cavity-dwelling ants.     

Consequences of resource competition for sex allocation and discriminative behaviors in a hyperparasitoid wasp

Population-wide mating patterns can select for equal parental investment in both sexes, but limiting resources, such as mates or developmental substrates, can increase competition leading to biased sex ratios in favor of either sex. Such competition for resources typically occurs in spatially structured populations, where dispersal is limited. In this laboratory study, we investigate if and how resource competition affects sex allocation, discriminative behaviors and competitive interactions of the wingless hyperparasitoid Gelis acororum, which exploits patchily distributed hosts. We show that G. acororum sex ratios are male-biased and that this is not a consequence of constrained reproduction by virgin females. Our results suggest that this pattern of reproductive investment, which is only rarely observed in parasitoids, is a consequence of resource limitation, in terms of hosts rather than mates. Further, G. acororum appears not to respond to intrinsic host quality or to prior oviposition in its host. When competing inter-specifically for host resources, G. acororum outcompetes its congener Gelis agilis, but does so mainly when ovipositing on the host first. Overall, our results suggest that host resource limitation could be an important environmental factor shaping sex allocation in G. acororum, with competition taking place both intra- and inter-specifically.     

Optimum forage allocation through chance-constrained programming

Most resource allocation models developed to aid resource planning have been deterministic; that is, the ecosystem and economic variables are assumed to be known with certainty. It is these elements that present problems concerning risk and uncertainty involved in decision making. The objective of this study is to present a mathematical approach for optimizing resource allocation in management situations in which random events occur. This particular technique of decision analysis is chance-constrained programming. The model makes possible the investigation of risk and uncertainty associated with resource management decision making. Range decision-makers must often stock their range before they are sure of the available forage; thus, the amount of available forage is a random element with which managers must contend. The chance-constrained approach to decision making may be used when such random events occur and when it is not possible to plan exactly for future events. Two parameters are used to adjust the mean value of constraints; these are the standard deviation of the constraint value (S_bi) and the probability term which is specified by the manager (K_αi). The mean values are adjusted by the product K_αiS_bi. In the study reported here, a K_αi value of 0.57 gave results which appeared to have usefulness. The results indicate that the penalties a rancher must assume for over-estimating his carrying capacity are greater than the penalties for underestimating the carrying capacity. With the value of the standard deviation used in the example, numbers of livestock and the corresponding net revenues should be about 22% less than those indicated by average forage production. With greater variation in forage production, the reduction would be greater. By using these values, the chance-constrained approach can meaningfully incorporate random variables into a decision model.     

A population comparison of the strength and persistence of innate colour preference and learning speed in the bumblebee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bombus terrestris</Emphasis>

Studies of innate colour preference and learning ability have focused on differences at the species level, rather than variation among populations of a single species. Initial strength and persistence of colour preferences are likely to affect colour choices of naïve flower visitors. We therefore study the influence of both the strength and persistence of innate colour preference (for blue) on an operant learning task (associating food reward with yellow flowers) in two populations of the bumblebee Bombus terrestris. We found that both strength and persistence of blue preference differed significantly between populations: B. terrestris dalmatinus had a weaker and less persistent blue preference than B. terrestris audax. These differences in preference also influenced learning performance. Considering only landing behaviours, one-trial learning occurred in the majority (73%) of bees, and was achieved sooner in B. terrestris dalmatinus because of its weaker blue preference. However, compared to landing behaviours the relative frequency of approach flights to rewarding and unrewarding flower types changed more slowly with task experience in both populations. When considering both approaches and landings, the rate of learning, following the first rewarded learning trial, was faster in B. terrestris audax than B. terrestris dalmatinus. However, the net effects of population differences in blue preference and learning dynamics result in similar final levels of task performance. Our results provide new evidence of behavioural differences among isolated populations within a single species, and raise intriguing questions about the ecological significance and adaptive nature of colour preference.     

A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.