Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha); avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha); and establishment of forest on nonforested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that although forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.     

东江流域1959-2009年气候变化及其对径流的影响

依据东江流域21个气象站1959-2009年逐年平均降雨、蒸发、日照、湿度及气温等气象要素序列,选择常用的线性倾向估计及非参数M．K等趋势分析方法,分析了东江流域近50年来气温、降水、蒸发、日照及湿度等气象要素的变化趋势。选择降雨和蒸发两个气候要素两两组合,构成未来气候变动的36种假想情景,运用改进的SCS月模型模拟计算了顺天流域年径流量的变化幅度。结果表明：在过去的50年间,流域降雨量呈不显著增长,而气温则为显著上升,其他气候要素如蒸发、日照及湿度等均呈不同程度减少趋势;关联度分析表明降雨在所有气象要素中与径流的关联度为最大,说明了在东江流域降雨是径流量变化的主要驱动因子;未来流域降雨增加,蒸发减少的气候情景模式下,径流量会有所增加,反之亦然;由降雨变化引起的流域月径流量的增幅较由蒸发变化引起的相应流量的增幅变化大。     

Climate change perspectives and adaptation strategies of business enterprises: a case study from Italy

The purpose of the paper is to present empirical evidence on how to develop climate-resilient business enterprises under the auspices of an industrial park management. This was facilitated through the collective mapping of climate adaptation strategies corresponding to the identified business risks exacerbated by climate events directly experienced in the shared territory. The cluster approach attempted to overcome the typical challenges of single business enterprises, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, with respect to their lack of human and financial resources and scientific and technical knowledge to understand climate change risks. The prospects of facilitating knowledge-sharing and information exchange within a cluster of business enterprises give impetus to the replicability and transferability of the approach in other industrial areas and organizational contexts.     

A warning from an ancient oasis: intensive human activities are leading to potential ecological and social catastrophe

The Shiyang River Basin is an inland river basin in the Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, northwest China. Shiyang is the largest basin in terms of human population density and has the highest exploitation of water resources in the northwest. Serious water shortages constrain social and economic development, and the area has some of the worst ecological and environmental deterioration in China. From historical data and recent observations, we have analysed changes in water systems in the Minqin oasis, at the end of the river basin, and assessed impacts and consequences of a changing climate and intensive human activity. Historically, climate change has been the main cause of changes in the oasis. In the last 50 years, however, a major influence has been intense human activity in the basin. With increasing population (159% in 50 years), the amount of cultivated land has been greatly expanded (by 51%). Many reservoirs have been built by damming rivers and large-scale irrigation has been introduced in the middle reaches of the basin. The introduction of leakage-free canals and more extensive exploitation of underground water have further expanded the irrigated area. Water use by humans has exceeded the carrying capacity of the water resources of the basin, which has led to a dramatic shift in water allocation between the upper and lower reaches and a rapid drop in the water table in the Minqin oasis (by as much as 14 m). The oasis is shrinking, natural vegetation that relies on underground water is disappearing, and desertification is accelerating. An ancient oasis that can be traced back 2000 years is disappearing and this must be a warning sign for future generations.     

Increasing pressure, declining water and climate change in north-eastern Morocco

The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities.     

From meso- to macro-scale dynamic water quality modelling for the assessment of land use change scenarios

The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive requires reliable tools to predict the water quality situations in streams caused by planned land use changes at the scale of large regional river basins. This paper presents the results of modelling the in-stream nitrogen load and concentration within the macro-scale basin of the Saale river (24,167 km²) using a semi-distributed process-based ecohydrological dynamic model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The simulated load and concentration at the last gauge of the basin show that SWIM is capable to provide a satisfactory result for a large basin. The uncertainty analysis indicates the importance of realistic input data for agricultural management, and that the calibration of parameters can compensate the uncertainty in the input data to a certain extent. A hypothesis about the distributed nutrient retention parameters for macro-scale basins was tested aimed in improvement of the simulation results at the intermediate gauges and the outlet. To verify the hypothesis, the retention parameters were firstly proved to have a reasonable representation of the denitrification conditions in six meso-scale catchments. The area of the Saale region was classified depending on denitrification conditions in soil and groundwater into three classes (poor, neutral and good), and the distributed parameters were applied. However, the hypothesis about the usefulness of distributed retention parameters for macro-scale basins was not confirmed. Since the agricultural management is different in the sub-regions of the Saale basin, land use change scenarios were evaluated for two meso-scale subbasins of the Saale. The scenario results show that the optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient load and improvement of water quality to meet the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive and in view of the regional development plans for future.     

Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate

Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers increasingly use knowledge coproduction to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley (USA) to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the world. We coproduced scenario narratives, spatially explicit flooded waterbird habitat models, data products, and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. We documented our coproduction process, and using the coproduced models, we determined when and where management actions make a difference and when climate overrides these actions. The outcomes of this process provide lessons learned on how to cocreate usable information and how to increase climate adaptive capacity in a highly managed landscape. Actions to restore wetlands and prioritize their water supply created habitat outcomes resilient to climate change impacts particularly in March, when habitat was most limited; land protection combined with management can increase the ecosystem's resilience to climate change; and uptake and use of this information was influenced by the roles of different stakeholders, rapidly changing water policies, discrepancies in decision-making time frames, and immediate crises of extreme drought. Although a broad stakeholder group contributed knowledge to scenario narratives and model development, to coproduce usable information, data products were tailored to a small set of decision contexts, leading to fewer stakeholder participants over time. A boundary organization convened stakeholders across a large landscape, and early adopters helped build legitimacy. Yet, broadscale use of climate adaptation knowledge depends on state and local policies, engagement with decision makers that have legislative and budgetary authority, and the capacity to fit data products to specific decision needs.     

Interactive Effects of Water Diversion and Climate Change for Juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lemhi River Basin (U.S.A.)

The combined effects of water diversion and climate change are a major conservation challenge for freshwater ecosystems. In the Lemhi Basin, Idaho (U.S.A.), water diversion causes changes in streamflow, and climate change will further affect streamflow and temperature. Shifts in streamflow and temperature regimes can affect juvenile salmon growth, movement, and survival. We examined the potential effects of water diversion and climate change on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). To examine the effects for juvenile survival, we created a model relating 19 years of juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival for 15 diversion and climate‐change scenarios. Projected survival was 42–58% lower when streamflows were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate‐change scenarios (ECHO‐G and CGCM3.1 T47) resulted in an additional 11–39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate‐change scenarios. Habitat carrying capacity estimated for diverted streamflows was 17–58% lower than for undiverted streamflows. Climate‐change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry (ECHO‐G) climate model. Our results indicate climate change will likely pose an additional stressor that should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic actions on salmon population status. Thus, this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular species. Efectos Interactivos de la Desviación del Agua y el Cambio Climático en Individuos Juveniles de Salmón Chinook en la Cuenca del Río Lemhi (E.U.A.)     

Evaluating and managing wildlife impacts of climate change under uncertainty

Wildlife managers face the daunting task of managing wildlife in light of uncertainty about the nature and extent of future climate change and variability and its potential adverse impacts on wildlife. A conceptual framework is developed for managing wildlife under such uncertainty. The framework uses fuzzy logic to test hypotheses about the extent of the wildlife impacts of past climate change and variability, and fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation to determine best compensatory management actions for adaptively managing the potential adverse impacts of future climate change and variability on wildlife. A compensatory management action is one that can offset some of the potential adverse impacts of climate change and variability on wildlife. Implementation of the proposed framework requires wildlife managers to: (1) select climate impact states, hypotheses about climate impact states, possible management actions for alleviating adverse wildlife impacts of climate change and variability, and future climate change scenarios; (2) choose biological attributes or indicators of species integrity; (3) adjust those attributes for changes in non-climatic variables; (4) define linguistic variables and associated triangular fuzzy numbers for rating both the acceptability of biological conditions under alternative management actions and the relative importance of biological attributes; (5) select minimum or maximum acceptable levels of the attributes and reliability levels for chance constraints on the biological attributes; and (6) define fuzzy sets on the extent of species integrity and biological conditions and select a fuzzy relation between species integrity and biological conditions. A constructed example is used to illustrate a hypothetical application of the framework by a wildlife management team. An overall best compensatory management action across all climate change scenarios is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which is appropriate when the management team cannot assign or is unwilling to assign probabilities to the future climate change scenarios. Application of the framework can be simplified and expedited by incorporating it in a web-based, interactive, decision support tool.     

The immediate costs and long-term benefits of assisted gene flow in large populations

With the genetic health of many plant and animal populations deteriorating due to climate change outpacing adaptation, interventions, such as assisted gene flow (AGF), may provide genetic variation necessary for populations to adapt to climate change. We ran genetic simulations to mimic different AGF scenarios in large populations and measured their outcomes on population-level fitness to determine circumstances in which it is worthwhile to perform AGF. In the absence of inbreeding depression, AGF was beneficial within a few generations only when introduced genotypes had much higher fitness than local individuals and traits affecting fitness were controlled by a few genes of large effect. AGF was harmful over short periods (e.g., first ∼10–20 generations) if there was strong outbreeding depression or introduced deleterious genetic variation. When the adaptive trait was controlled by many loci of small effect, the benefits of AGF took over 10 generations to realize—potentially too long for most climate-related management scenarios. The genomic integrity of the recipient population typically remained intact following AGF; the amount of genetic material from the donor population usually constituted no more of the recipient population's genome than the fraction of the population introduced. Significant genomic turnover (e.g., >50% replacement) only occurred when the selective advantage of the adaptive trait and translocation fraction were extremely high. Our results will be useful when adaptive management is used to maintain the genetic health and productivity of large populations under climate change.     

GIS assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change and coastal adaption planning in Vietnam

Vietnam’s coastal zone provides a diverse range of natural resources and favourable conditions for social and economic development. However, its coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable, due to several natural coastal hazards, over-exploitation and other human activities. In spite of diverse interventions, Vietnam’s coastal zone continues to experience significant damage from floods, erosion and typhoons. These hazards are being intensified by climate change and associated rising sea levels. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of Vietnam’s coast to climate change and discusses possible adaptation policies and plan to reduce the impacts. GIS analysis was used for the assessment of coastal vulnerability. Related literature was reviewed to develop detailed understanding of coastal adaptation to climate change. Adaptation policies and plans were appraised to identify potential coastal adaptation policies and plans that could be adapted by Vietnam. It was identified that vulnerability of the coastal zone of Vietnam could not be attributed only to climatic factors, but also to the physical condition of the coastline. Much of Vietnam’s coastline, particularly, areas around the Red River delta and the Mekong River have elevations below 1 m. These coastlines are largely developed and serve as economic centres of the country, which makes the coast more vulnerable to climate change and the rising sea level. The paper concluded that a non-structural approach (coastal buffer zones, building houses on stilts, storm warning systems, growing of flood-resistant crops and elevated storm shelters with medicine and food storage) could be used by Vietnam to adapt her low-lying coastline around the two deltas to climate change as this strategy enables vulnerable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat. However, for these policies to be successful, it should be planned, implemented well in advance, monitored and evaluated over time.     

Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5–50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.     

Conservation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Abstract: The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science–policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations—organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy—could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.     

Water shortage: a serious problem in sustainable development of China

SUMMARY

Water crises have occurred in more than 400 cities in China at the beginning of 2000. Investigation and statistical data suggest that there are five main problems in the management and utilization of water resources in China. These are (1) insufficient capacity and inhomogeneous space-time distribution of natural resources, (2) outdated construction of water conservancy projects and supply engineering, (3) unreasonable industrial water consumption, (4) increased water pollution and (5) incomplete management of the river basin and waterworks in city. It is necessary to take steps corresponding to the above-mentioned reasons to mitigate and even dispel the pressure on water resources for sustainable development of China as quickly as possible.     

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.     

Estimating Effects of Tidal Power Projects and Climate Change on Threatened and Endangered Marine Species and Their Food Web

Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA‐listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA‐listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA‐listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA‐listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial‐scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA‐listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA‐listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA‐listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria     

Choosing and Using Climate‐Change Scenarios for Ecological‐Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate‐change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate‐change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación     

Biogeochemical model (BGC-ES) and its basin-level application for evaluating ecosystem services under forest management practices

It is important for humans to live in harmony with ecosystems. Evaluation of ecosystem services (ES) may be helpful in achieving this objective. In Japan, forest ecosystems need to be re-evaluated to prevent their degradation due to lack of forest management.In order to evaluate the effects of forest management on forest ES, we developed a process-based biogeochemical model to estimate water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles in forest ecosystems (BGC-ES). This model consists of four submodels: biomass, water cycle, carbon-nitrogen (CN) cycles, and forest management. The biomass submodel can calculate growth of forest biomass under forest managements.Several parameters of the model were calibrated using data from observations of evapotranspiration flux and quality of stream flow in forests. The model results were compared with observations of runoff water from a dam catchment site and with carbon flux observations.Our model was coupled with a basin-level GIS database of forests. Evaluations under various forest management scenarios were carried out for forests in a basin contained in the Ise Bay basin (Chubu region, Japan), where plantations (artificial forests) seemed to have degraded from poor forest management.Comparing our simulation results with those of forests without management in the basin, we found that the amounts of absorbed carbon and runoff were larger in managed forests. In addition, the volume of harvested timber was larger and its quality (diameter) was better in managed forests. Changes of ES within the various scenarios were estimated for their economic value and were compared with the cost of forest management.     

江英乡石灰岩山区农业综合开发与治理研究：Ⅱ.农业综合开发与治理

着重讨论了阳山县江某乡石灰岩山区治理试验前的土地资源利用状况和存在问题,总结了综合开发与治理的实践经验。通过对石灰岩山区潜在优势的分折,确立开发与治理的主攻方向,实施调整作物结构、改革耕作制度、推广良种良法和反季节蔬菜栽培等一系列措施,使江某乡农业经济面貌在短短的几年时间内发生了巨大的变化。