Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change

Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO₂ level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.     

Distribution of carbon 14 in the terrestrial environment close to French nuclear power plants

For 10 years, (14)C measurements have been performed around French nuclear power plant sites, both in zones influenced and zones not influenced by gaseous releases. Examining the results from these measurements in the terrestrial environment shows that the discharges have a very slight impact on the radiocarbon level (with a relative increase in the specific activity of the order of 3 Bqkg(-1)C in the influenced areas). In correlation, there is a near-negligible increase in dose, on average less than 0.1 microSvyr(-1), with reference to a dose from background radiation, which is of the order of 10 microSvyr(-1). The deltaC13 values are very similar between the influenced zone and the non-influenced zone, with a mean of -27 per thousand. The mean DeltaC14 varies from 101 per thousand in the non-influenced zone to 123 per thousand in the influenced zone. Moreover, a general reduction in (14)C concentration was found, with a time constant of the order of 95 years. The current level of (14)C specific activity in terrestrial environment is estimated to be 242+/-6 Bqkg(-1)C.     

环渤海地区海洋经济发展进程中的生态环境响应及其影响因素

基于海洋经济发展进程的生态环境演化模型,建立了环渤海地区海洋经济与生态环境发展水平评价指标体系,通过构建响应度模型定量分析2004至2014年环渤海地区海洋经济发展的海洋生态环境响应变化及影响因素,得出以下结论:(1)通过构建海洋经济与生态环境发展水平评价指标体系及综合评价模型进行测算发现,环渤海地区海洋经济发展综合评价值由2004年的0.135提升至2014年的0.850,表明环渤海地区海洋经济发展水平不断提高,并呈现出良好的发展势头;海洋生态环境发展综合评价值先由2004年的0.647降至2012年的0.335,后又缓慢回升至2014年的0.374,表明环渤海地区海洋生态环境水平虽在2012至2014年间略有好转,但总体仍呈波动下降趋势。(2)通过构建海洋生态环境响应度模型进行测算发现,环渤海地区海洋经济发展的生态环境响应指数由2004年的-0.073下降至2012年的-0.576,而后又增大至2014年的-0.297,表明环渤海地区海洋经济发展对生态环境演变产生了"胁迫"影响,总体呈现出由"弱胁迫"向"强胁迫"变化的态势,但胁迫程度在2012至2014年间有所缓和。(3)通过多元回归分析发现,与海洋生态环境响应指数的偏回归系数较高的3个自变量分别为海洋科技课题成果应用数量、海域利用效率、单位面积工业废水排放达标量,且海域利用效率的回归系数最高为0.749。表明海域利用效率是影响环渤海地区海洋生态环境响应演变的主要因素,此外,海洋科技发展水平的提高以及海洋污染治理力度加强等因素也对胁迫程度的减小具有一定的推动作用。     

The connection between urbanization and carbon emissions: a panel evidence from West Africa

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study examined the nexus between urbanization and carbon emissions in West Africa. Second-generation econometric techniques that are robust to...     

Assessment of marine pollution in Izmir Bay: nutrient, heavy metal and total hydrocarbon concentrations

Izmir Bay (western Turkey) is one of the great natural bays of the Mediterranean. Izmir is an important industrial and commercial centre and a cultural focal point. The main industries in the region include food processing, oil, soap and paint production, chemical industries, paper and pulp factories, textile industries and metal processing. The mean concentrations showed ranges of 0.01-0.19 and 0.01-10 microM for phosphate, 0.10-1.8 and 0.12-27 microM for nitrate+nitrite, and 0.30-5.8 and 0.43-39 microM for silicate in the outer and middle-inner bays, respectively. The TNO(x)/PO(4) ratio is significantly lower than the Redfield's ratio and nitrogen is the limiting element in the middle-inner bays. Diatoms and dinoflagellates were observed all year around in the bay and are normally nitrogen limited. Metal concentrations ranged between Hg: 0.05-1.3, Cd: 0.005-0.82, Pb: 14-113 and Cr: 29-316 microg g(-1) in the sediments. The results showed significant enrichments during sampling periods from Inner Bay. Outer and middle bays show low levels of heavy metal enrichments except estuary of Gediz River. The concentrations of Hg, Cd and Pb in the outer bay were generally similar to the background levels from the Mediterranean. The levels gradually decreased over the sampling period. Total hydrocarbons concentrations range from 427 to 7800 ng g(-1) of sediments. The highest total hydrocarbon levels were found in the inner bay due to the anthropogenic activities, mainly combustion processes of traffic and industrial activities. The concentrations of heavy metals found in fish varied for Hg: 4.5-520, Cd: 0.10-10 and Pb: 0.10-491 microg kg(-1) in Izmir Bay. There was no significant seasonal variation in metal concentrations. An increase in Hg concentration with increasing length was noted for Mullus barbatus. A person can consume more than 2, 133 and 20 meals per week of fish in human diet would represent the tolerable weekly intake of mercury, cadmium and lead, respectively, in Izmir Bay. Heavy metal levels were lower than the results in fish tissues reported from polluted areas of the Mediterranean Sea.     

Sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems: Is the land's carbon budget balanced under the influence of man?

This contribution deals with the controversy between certain scientists on the role of terrestrial vegetation and soils in the global carbon cycle. The hypothesis of a significant net release from the vegetation, is rejected by geochemists because of the limited capacity of the ocean to take up this excess carbon dioxide. As for the man-influenced tropics, a comparison of the figures for the potential and the current phytomass, as well as plausible demographic arguments, support the assertion put forward by ecologists that the carbon budget of this zone cannot be balanced. The tropics lose about 1.7-3.9 × 10¹⁵ g/yr of carbon to the atmosphere; however, for several reasons, 0.5-2.8 × 10¹⁵ g/yr may be returned to land ecosystem, mostly in other climatic zones. Thus, a balance is achieved on combining low estimates for the losses with high estimates for the gains. From an ecological perspective, this solution is not a very probable one; nevertheless, it cannot conclusively be eliminated.     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.     

碳中和的缘起、实现路径与关键科学问题：气候变化与可持续城市化

碳中和是我国应对气候变化的新目标,提出以来引起国内外广泛关注。碳中和目标实现是一个复杂系统科学问题,涉及大气圈、岩石圈、水圈、生物圈、人类圈等多圈层耦合过程与作用机制,需要跨学科交叉、综合与协同研究。简要梳理碳中和提出的气候变化和温控目标缘起,归纳碳中和实现的碳源、碳汇的多元路径,强调从碳源的需求侧推动可持续城市化对于碳中和目标实现的重要作用,并且可能是成本低、潜力大、更直接有效的方案途径。提出适应与减缓气候变化下碳中和与可持续城市化研究领域8个方面的科学问题：气候变化—碳中和—可持续城市化关联关系、中国及各地区碳中和实现的路线图与时间表、城市区域尺度碳排放的精准核算、绿色生活方式与低碳社会、绿色生产方式与低碳经济、能源结构优化、风险与不确定性和碳中和长效机制的治理创新等,以及该领域当前研究面临的机遇和挑战。     

基于ANN-CA模型的港口城市景观格局变化与预测研究——以胶州湾西岸区为例

研究港口城市景观格局变化规律对港口城市土地利用规划和产业布局具有借鉴和指导意义。以胶州湾西岸所在区域为例,基于ANN-CA模型和景观生态学理论,对2025年土地利用情况进行仿真预测,利用景观格局指数深入分析1995～2025年胶州湾西岸景观格局变化规律及其驱动因素。结果表明:胶州湾西岸耕地、草地和水域面积趋于减少,城镇、港区和临港用地面积所占比例大幅度增加至16.19%、7.72%和22.20%,非建设用地逐渐向港口和城市建设用地转化;景观结构总体趋于复杂化,前期景观的优势度下降,分离破碎化程度上升,景观丰富度和异质性增强,斑块分布更加均匀,后期景观优势度转而上升,分离破碎程度逐渐减小,景观多样性和均匀度趋于降低;社会经济和港口产业的迅猛发展是推动胶州湾西岸土地利用和景观格局变化的主要因素,随着港城矛盾逐渐凸显,港口和临港用地扩张趋于饱和。故提出加快区域内港口及其临港产业向外转移和提高土地利用集约程度的建议。     

The influence of urbanization on vegetation carbon pools under a tele-coupling framework in China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Carbon emissions will exacerbate the process of global warming, and urbanization can cause carbon loss from terrestrial ecosystems by occupying...     

Role of allochthonous carbon in the energy of terrestrial invertebrate communities at different distances from the Black Sea and a freshwater lake (Isotopic Evidence)

Isotopic analysis has become an important tool in the study of lateral links between ecosystems. The isotopic composition of carbon in terrestrial and aquatic primary producers can differ significantly, which provides an opportunity to identify the “marine” or “freshwater” carbon in the tissues of terrestrial animals. We measured the isotopic composition of C and N in tissues of soil invertebrates and estimated the proportion of “aquatic” carbon in the energy budget of terrestrial food webs at different distances from the Black Sea and a freshwater lake. Terrestrial predators are actively subsidized with carbon from the Black Sea to distance of up to about 50 m. The carbon subsidy from the freshwater lake is significant in the zone extending no farther than the forest border (ca. 15 m). Thus, the effect of allochthonous organic matter on terrestrial communities in both cases manifests itself only in a relatively narrow coastal strip.     

137Cs and 210Po dose assessment from marine food in Cienfuegos Bay (Cuba)

One part of Radiological Monitoring Programme in central Cuba (1991-1995) was dedicated to study the background levels of natural and anthropogenic radioactivity in Cienfuegos Bay in the vicinity of the first Cuban nuclear power station under construction. 210Po and 137Cs concentrations in fish, molluscs and crustaceans collected in Cienfuegos Bay were determined and the committed effective doses (CED) were calculated for two population groups inhabiting this region. The highest values of 210Po concentrations were found in crustaceans, but significant accumulation was also observed in fish and molluscs. The mean 137Cs concentrations in organisms are several times lower with respect to 210Po, a situation that characterises the regions affected by the global fallout only. Values of CED from the consumption of crustaceans and molluscs are very low both from 210Po and 137Cs. The mean individual dose from 210Po in the seafood consumed varies from 39 microSv for general populations to 2802 microSv for the "critical group" consuming 320 kg of fish per year. The dose from 137Cs is negligible.     

Acid-base characteristics of organic carbon in the HUMEX lake Skjervatjern

The Humic Lake Acidification Experiment (HUMEX) was launched in 1988 to study the role of humic substances in the acidification of surface waters and the impacts of acidic deposition on the chemical and biological properties of humic substances. This subproject was designed to determine the contribution of organic acids to the acidity of Lake Skjervatjern (the HUMEX Lake) and the impacts of the acidification on the characteristics of organic carbon. In order to get an empirical measure for organic acidity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was fractionated, isolated, and base-titrated from each half of Lake Skjervatjern. Hydrophobic acids were the dominant organic carbon fraction; the total organic acid content was generally greater than 80% of the DOC. The reliability of the fractionation procedure was tested with synthetic acids and the Nordic Fulvic acid. The DOC fractions did not show high variation over the 1.5-y acidification period. Hydrophilic acids had consistently greater exchange acidities compared to hydrophobic acids, averaging 12.9 μeq/mg DOC vs. 10.9 μeq/mg DOC, respectively. The dissociation of organic acids during acid-base titrations clearly increased with increasing pH. The high organic anion contribution to the ion balances indicates that humic matter is an important acidity source in Lake Skjervatjern. There are slight signs that the contribution of organic acids to overall lake acidity has decreased since acidification was initiated.     

Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis

Land use and carbon emissions have long been a heated topic in China as well as developing countries. This paper contributes to the study of the related area as to investigate the causal relationship between the land urbanization quality and carbon emissions using panel data from 30 provinces in China over the period of 2004–2013. The empirical results show that: There exists bidirectional causality between land urbanization quality and carbon emissions across the country; land urbanization quality has negative effects on carbon emissions in all areas, with its effects largest in the Central region, followed by the Eastern, and the Western ranked at last; causal relationship exists in all regions, in addition to Eastern China; Central region has the highest potential of energy conservation. These findings provide new insights and valuable information for optimizing land use and urban development in China. In particular, to actively adjust the industrial structure, innovation in science and technology, and separate policy focus can contribute to energy conservation and urban land use.     

Applicability of a noise-based model to estimate in-traffic exposure to black carbon and particle number concentrations in different cultures

Several studies show that a significant portion of daily air pollution exposure, in particular black carbon (BC), occurs during transport. In a previous work, a model for the in-traffic exposure of bicyclists to BC was proposed based on spectral evaluation of mobile noise measurements and validated with BC measurements in Ghent, Belgium. In this paper, applicability of this model in a different cultural context with a totally different traffic and mobility situation is presented. In addition, a similar modeling approach is tested for particle number (PN) concentration.Indirectly assessing BC and PN exposure through a model based on noise measurements is advantageous because of the availability of very affordable noise monitoring devices. Our previous work showed that a model including specific spectral components of the noise that relate to engine and rolling emission and basic meteorological data, could be quite accurate. Moreover, including a background concentration adjustment improved the model considerably. To explore whether this model could also be used in a different context, with or without tuning of the model parameters, a study was conducted in Bangalore, India. Noise measurement equipment, data storage, data processing, continent, country, measurement operators, vehicle fleet, driving behavior, biking facilities, background concentration, and meteorology are all very different from the first measurement campaign in Belgium. More than 24 h of combined in-traffic noise, BC, and PN measurements were collected. It was shown that the noise-based BC exposure model gives good predictions in Bangalore and that the same approach is also successful for PN. Cross validation of the model parameters was used to compare factors that impact exposure across study sites. A pooled model (combining the measurements of the two locations) results in a correlation of 0.84 when fitting the total trip exposure in Bangalore. Estimating particulate matter exposure with traffic noise measurements was thus shown to be a valid approach across countries and cultures.     

Simulating the effects of urbanization,afforestation and cropland abandonment on a regional carbon balance: a case study for Central Germany

The newly developed model system HILLS is used to simulate recent (1990–2000) and future (up to 2020) changes in land use and carbon sequestration over Central Germany. HILLS is unique as that it integrates the spatially explicit land-use-change model LUC-Hesse with the dynamic ecosystem model Century under a GIS platform. With this new tool, the concurrent effects of urbanization, afforestation and cropland abandonment on regional carbon sequestration are analyzed for an exemplary “Business as Usual” scenario. During the simulation period, afforestation was estimated to sequester 880 Gg C and cropland abandonment 783 Gg C. Urbanization was estimated to release 336 Gg C formerly stored in soil organic matter and thereby offsets about 20% of the C sequestered by cropland abandonment and afforestation. The case study shows that urbanization can partly counteract the benefits of carbon sequestration resulting from other land-use changes and should be investigated in other carbon balances.     

Arsenic mobilization from iron oxyhydroxides is regulated by organic matter carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio

Arsenic (As) is mobilized from delta and floodplain aquifer sediments throughout S.E. Asia via reductive dissolution of As bound to iron (Fe) oxyhydroxides. The reductive driving force is organic carbon, but its source and constitution is uncertain. Here batch incubation experiments were conducted to investigate the role of organic matter (OM) carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratio on the mobilization of arsenic, Fe and N from As dosed, Fe oxyhydroxide coated sands. As mobilization into pore waters from the sand was strongly regulated by the C:N ratio of the OM, and also the concentration of OM present. The lower the C:N, the more As released. Fe and ammonium release were similarly dependent on the quality and quantity of OM, but Fe mobilization was more rapid and ammonium release slower than As suggesting that the mobilization of these 3 moieties although interdependent, were not directly linked. It was concluded that low C:N ratios for OM responsible for reducing aquifers were As in groundwater is observed were likely.     

Application of the Weibull extrapolation to 137Cs geochronology in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan

Considerable doubt surrounds the nature of processes by which 137Cs is deposited in marine sediments, leading to a situation where 137Cs geochronology cannot be always applied suitably. Based on extrapolation with Weibull distribution, the maximum concentration of 137Cs derived from asymptotic values for cumulative specific inventory was used to re-establish 137Cs geochronology, instead of original 137Cs profiles. Corresponding dating results for cores in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan, by means of this new method, are in much closer agreement with those calculated from 210Pb method than the previous method.