会泽某铅锌矿周边农田土壤重金属生态风险评价

为了了解云南会泽某铅锌矿废周边农田土壤中重金属含量及潜在的生态危害程度,利用野外采样与实验室分析相结合的方法,以会泽某铅锌矿周边农田土壤（0-20 cm）为研究对象,分析其中7种的重金属（Cd、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Zn和Hg）含量,并采用风险评价代码法和Hankanson潜在生态风险指数法评价对重金属污染程度与潜在生态风险进行评价。结果表明：7种重金属都存在超标或污染,其中Pb、As、Cd等的污染较为严重。统计学分析结果表明,Pb、As、Hg、Zn、Cd来源相同,铅锌矿冶炼污染物的排放可能是导致研究区域农田土壤重金属含量升高的主要原因。7种重金属化学形态也不尽相同：在重金属有效态中,Cd的水溶态和可提取态较高（平均值达到31.2%）;Pb、Cu和Zn可还原态、可氧化态这两部分含量较高,两部分之和的平均值分别可达到27.9%、30%和27.2%;Hg、As和Cr的残渣态含量较高,平均值分别为90.4%、72.9%和76.8%。风险评价代码评价结果表明,54.4%的样点Cd为高生态风险,45.6%的样点Cd为中度生态风险;100%的样点Zn为中度生态风险;Cu有41.2%的点位属于低生态风险,58.8%的点位属于中度生态风险;As和Pb主要以低生态风险为主（所占比例分别为92.6%和91.8%）;Hg主要以无生态风险为主（所占97.1%）。Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法结果表明,7种重金属潜在生态危害大小顺序为：Cd（331）〉Hg（127.5）〉Pb（43.6）〉As（14.9）〉Cu（9.3）〉Zn（2.3）〉Cr（2.1）。7种重金属的综合潜在生态风险指数（RI）的范围为58.2-1839.3。11%的采样点处于轻微生态风险程度,27.1%的采样点处于中等生态风险程度,46.3%的的采样点处于强生态风险程度,15.6%的采样点处于很强的生态风险程度。综上所述,该矿区周边农田土壤受到了严重的重金属污染,由此引起的重金属生态风险不容忽视?     

小清河污灌区农田土壤重金属形态分析及风险评价

选取小清河污灌区农田为研究区域,采集31个表层土壤样品,测定了土壤重金属(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Ni、As和Pb)含量,采用改进的BCR顺序提取法对土壤重金属的形态进行分析,并基于潜在生态风险指数法和风险编码法(RAC)对土壤中重金属的生态风险进行评估.结果表明,小清河污灌区土壤中Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Ni、As、Pb平均含量分别是0.37、51.61、32.62、68.49、34.12、40.77、32.26 mg·kg~(-1).土壤中Cr、Zn、Ni、As以残渣态占绝对优势,Cu以残渣态和可氧化态为主,Pb则以可还原态为主,而Cd表现出了形态多样的分布特征;重金属生物活性大小排序为:Cd Pb Cu Zn As Ni Cr;潜在生态风险指数法的评价结果表明,Cd处于中度-很强风险水平,As处于轻微-中度风险水平,其他重金属为轻微风险水平.综合潜在生态风险指数RI值在51.23—199.33,处于轻微-中等风险水平,Cd、As是土壤重金属的主要风险源,其对综合潜在生态风险指数的贡献率分别为57%、31%;RAC评价结果表明,土壤Cd处于中度-高风险水平,Zn处于低-中度风险水平,其他重金属为低风险水平.     

潍坊市菜地重金属调查与环境风险评价研究

科学评估菜地土壤重金属污染状况对有机种植规划布局、指导农业种植结构调整具有重要的现实意义,也可为土壤环境风险防控和污染土壤修复提供科学依据。在山东省潍坊市全境蔬菜主产区随机采集32个设施菜地和15个露地菜地样本,应用电感耦合等离子体质谱测定了Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb等元素以及用原子荧光光度计测定As、Hg质量分数;依据GB15618—2008,对土壤重金属超标情况进行评价,采用生态风险指数和潜在地积累指数等方法进行了重金属环境风险及污染程度评价。结果表明:Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Hg等元素质量分数平均值分别是山东省土壤环境背景值的1.13、1.16、1.27、1.62、3.21和2.11倍,表明重金属存在富集现象;各个元素质量分数平均值均低于国家二级标准值,但Cd、Ni、Cu、Zn的点位超标率分别为21.3%、8.51%、2.12%、2.12%;潜在生态风险指数评价结果显示,菜地土壤处于中等生态风险,其中设施菜地处于中等生态风险,露地菜地处于低生态风险;所有点位Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Pb均为低生态风险,而Cd、Hg分别有97.8%和80.8%的点位处于中等生态风险及其以上水平。地积累指数评价结果表明,设施菜地Cd、Hg、Zn处于轻度-中等污染水平,露地菜地Cd、Hg处于轻度-中等污染水平,其他元素均无污染;所有点位中,Hg、Cd、Zn、Ni、Cr、Cu、Pb受污染比例分别为78.7%、63.8%、42.6%、17.0%、14.9%、12.8%、2.1%。整体上,潍坊市菜地土壤能够满足有机种植的条件,但存在一定数量点位的污染,其中Cd点位污染比例最大,可能会成为限制该区域有机种植的主要因素。     

包头市南海湿地土壤重金属污染评价及来源解析

包头市南海湿地位于中国西北地区的高纬度寒旱区,具有独特的河流湿地生态系统。以南海湿地土壤为研究对象,对湿地28个点位表层土壤(0~20 cm)中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Mn、Pb、Zn 8种重金属进行检测分析,采用环境质量指数与Hakanson环境生态潜在风险指数相结合的方法,探讨土壤中8种重金属的累积污染现状及潜在生态风险,利用相关性分析、主成分分析和聚类分析区分了南海湿地重金属的来源,以期为南海湿地土壤环境保护提供理论依据。结果表明,As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Mn、Pb和Zn重金属平均值分别为75.18、1.27、56.98、111.18、87.67、622.71、54.10和209.33 mg·kg~(-1)。以包头市南海公园树木林土壤重金属含量为评价基准,南海湿地土壤重金属普遍超标,研究区域所有样方中As、Cd、Cu、Mn和Pb均超标,Cr有64.29%的样点超标,Ni有96.43%的样点超标,Zn有89.29%的样点超标。单因子污染指数表明,Cd处于中度污染;As、Cu、Pb和Zn处于轻度污染;Cr、Ni和Mn处于轻微污染。农田区和景观大道两侧处于重污染水平,鱼塘区和湿地植物区处于中污染水平。潜在生态风险指数表明,Cd处于强风险等级;As、Cr、Cu、Ni、Mn、Pb、Zn处于低风险等级。;研究区整体上都属于中等风险等级。来源解析表明:As、Cd、Cu、Ni、Mn的来源受到周边工业活动和农业活动的影响;Pb和Zn的来源与道路交通有关,Pb还受到工业活动的影响;Cr来源与土壤母质和农业活动有关。     

娄山河表层沉积物重金属赋存形态及风险评价

测定了娄山河表层沉积物间隙水中重金属(Cu、As、Pb、Zn、Cr、Cd和Ni)的质量浓度,采用改正的BCR顺序提取法分析了沉积物中重金属的赋存形态,并分别基于美国水质基准(CCC、CMC)和风险评价编码法(RAC)、潜在生态风险指数法对间隙水和表层沉积物中重金属的毒性及生态风险进行评价.结果表明,娄山河表层沉积物间隙水中Cr、Pb可能对水生态系统产生急性或慢性毒性.沉积物中7种重金属的含量均高于土壤背景值,呈现累积效应.沉积物中As、Ni主要赋存于残渣态,Cu、Cr主要赋存于可氧化态和残渣态,Pb、Zn在多数点位以残渣态为主,Cd以酸可溶解态为主要赋存形态.除As外,其余重金属的可提取态含量高于残渣态,有较高的二次释放潜力.RAC的评价结果表明,表层沉积物中Cu、As、Pb和Cr处于无风险到低风险级,Zn、Ni处于低风险到高风险级,Cd以高风险和极高风险级为主,不同重金属RAC的平均值依次为CdZnNiPbCuAsCr.潜在生态风险指数法的评价结果表明,Zn为低生态风险,其余重金属均存在点位处于中等及以上生态风险,RI值表明研究区采样点有中等到极强生态风险.     

赣南某钨矿区土壤重金属污染生态风险评价

对赣南某钨矿区及周边农田土壤重金属的污染进行调查,分析了2个尾矿堆积区及17个农田采样区土壤中重金属Pb、Cr、Mn、Zn、Cu和Cd的总量和形态,采用潜在生态危害指数法和RAC风险评价法对研究区域土壤重金属的生态风险进行评价.结果表明,尾矿堆积区尾砂中6种重金属远远超过江西省土壤背景值和国家土壤环境质量二级标准,土壤重金属浓度水平分布表现为尾矿堆积区尾矿附近农田土壤矿区周边农田土壤.形态分析结果显示矿区农田土壤中6种重金属主要以可还原态、可氧化态和残渣态存在,尾矿附近农田土壤重金属Pb、Mn、Zn和Cd酸溶态占比均大于10%,具有较强的生物有效性.潜在生态危害指数评价表明研究区域表层(0—20 cm)和中层(20—40 cm)土壤存在极强的重金属生态危害,Cd是土壤重金属潜在生态风险主要的贡献因子.RAC风险评价结果表明,尾矿附近农田0—40 cm土壤中Zn和Cd存在的生态风险较大,而矿区周边农田0—40 cm土壤中Cd和Mn存在的生态风险相对较大.综合基于重金属总量分析的潜在生态风险指数和基于重金属有效态的RAC评价结果,Cd、Zn和Mn的污染是研究区域土壤污染风险控制需要关注的重点.     

湖南某植烟土壤重金属含量及其生态风险评价

采集了湖南某植烟区表层土壤样品112份,测定了土壤中6种重金属元素的含量,并采用单因子污染指数法、综合污染指数法和潜在生态危害指数法对其污染状况进行评价.结果表明,植烟区土壤重金属平均含量分别为36.25(Cu)、69.78(Zn)、37.66(Pb)、0.36(Cd)、12.71(As)、0.27(Hg)mg·kg-1.6个元素的变异系数在32.57%—59.03%之间,属于中等变异,元素分布不均.污染评价结果表明,植烟区土壤重金属Cu、Zn、Pb、As的单因子污染指数平均值小于1,其污染较轻.而重金属Cd和Hg的超标率为54.46%和58.04%,土壤受到Cd和Hg污染.潜在生态风险指数评价结果显示植烟区土壤重金属属于轻度污染.相关性分析结果表明Cu、Zn、Pb和Cd之间呈显著相关性,As和Hg相关性显著,说明其同源性较高.来源分析表明,研究区Cu、Zn、Pb和Cd污染来源东北部主要为矿区污染,西南部主要是人为源,As主要来源为成土母质和生活源,Hg主要为大气污染源.     

江西钨矿周边土壤重金属生态风险评价:不同评价方法的比较

对江西省大余县某钨矿区周边的农田土壤进行调查分析,并采用不同的方法对土壤进行评价,结果表明,土壤As、Pb、Zn、Cu和Ni的含量范围分别为15.33—154.65 mg·kg-1、156.29—346.98 mg·kg-1、47.73—277.72 mg·kg-1、19.06—210.24 mg·kg-1和12.00—35.11 mg·kg-1,一些土壤样点的As、Pb、Zn和Cu含量已超过国家土壤环境质量二级标准.利用地累积指数法对土壤进行评价,结果表明土壤均受到As、Pb、Zn、Cu和Ni不同程度的污染;根据CPI(综合污染指数)评价标准,65.7%的土壤处于污染状态;利用TCLP法对土壤生态风险进行评价,结果显示所有土壤并未受到重金属的污染,以内梅罗综合污染指数法对土壤进行综合评价,结果表明该农田土壤重金属生态风险处于安全范围;以潜在生态危害指数法评价,发现Pb、As和Cu达到或超过中等生态风险的样点分别占37.14%、25.72%和2.86%,其他重金属污染风险均属轻微以下.不同评价方法得出的评价结果有差异,人们在评价重金属污染土壤时要根据评价的目的慎重选择合适的评价方法.     

浙江省典型农田土壤重金属污染及生态风险评价

浙江是中国经济社会发展最快的省份之一,人类活动对土壤环境扰动强烈。为系统了解浙江省典型农田土壤重金属的污染水平、空间分布特征及生态风险,采集并分析了67个代表性农田土壤表层样品中的8种重金属元素(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Mn、Ni、Pb和Zn),采用主成分分析法进行来源解析,采用污染负荷指数(PLI)、潜在生态风险指数(RI)和生态风险预警指数(IER)对农田土壤重金属污染与环境风险进行评价。结果表明,浙江省典型农田土壤环境重金属为轻度污染状态,研究区域农田土壤中的Cr、Ni和As处于轻微污染水平;Pb、Hg、Cu和Zn处于轻度污染水平;Cd处于重度污染水平,应作为优先控制元素。研究区域农田土壤Cr、Cu、Zn和Ni的来源主要受自然因素控制,Cd和Hg主要来源于工农业生产等人为活动,Pb主要来源于交通源。浙江省的金华市义乌、绍兴市诸暨、绍兴市嵊州、丽水市缙云县岩沿村应作为浙江省典型农田土壤的优先控制区域。浙江省典型农田土壤重金属环境存在轻微生态风险。     

福建九龙江流域水稻土重金属污染评价及生态风险

为研究九龙江流域水稻土中重金属污染及生态风险,采用电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)和原子荧光光谱法(AFS)分析测定了九龙江流域农田土壤中22种重金属的含量.运用地质累积指数法、潜在生态风险指数法和次生相与原生相分布比值法评价重金属污染特征及潜在生态风险.结果表明,九龙江流域水稻土中除Ni和Mo元素外,其余重金属的总平均含量均超过福建省土壤元素背景值.Cd、Pb、Mn、Hg和Cu的生物有效态含量较高,分别占总量的66.86%、59.20%、55.90%、53.73%和52.18%,说明这些元素较易迁移且对农作物具有较高潜在生物毒性.结合3种评价方法结果表明,九龙江流域水稻土已受到Cd的中度污染和Hg、Pb、Sr、As、Co、Zn、Cu、Mn、Se的轻度污染.水稻土中重金属存在较高的综合潜在生态风险,其中Cd为高潜在生态风险,Hg为较高潜在生态风险,两者对综合潜在生态风险的贡献率分别为57.0%和25.1%.Cd和Hg,应作为九龙江流域水稻土质量评价的重点关注对象.     

基于自然灾害的北京幅综合生态风险评价

经过20多年的发展,风险源评价从单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体从单一受体发展到多受体,评价尺度也从种群、生态系统扩展到区域和景观水平。但总体说来,对多风险源、多过程的多个生态系统层次的风险评价尚不成熟。运用数字高程模型、干燥度分布图、植被指数、人口密度以及8种自然灾害风险源频率分布图、土地利用图、植被类型图、陆地生态系统生态资产分布图等数据,基于ArcGIS 9.2平台,综合考虑生态的脆弱性,风险源的发生频率,受体的暴露水平、危害程度等,对多风险源、多个生态系统综合的北京幅生态风险进行评价。旨在对区域综合生态风险评价方法进行探讨。评价结果显示：（1）高风险区主要为本区环渤海湾沿岸,包括天津市,河北唐山、沧州,山东滨州、东营、潍坊等沿海地带;以及本图幅西部、北部的太行山地,包括河北省、北京市及图幅西部的山西、河南部分地区;（2）较低生态风险区所占比例较高,达42.55%,可见降低生态风险有很大的潜力;（3）高强度的人类开发,尤其是在滨海地区围海造陆,将会导致沿海地区生态风险更高。     

A new comprehensive ecological risk index for risk assessment on Luanhe River,China

With the enhancement of human activities which influence the physical and chemical integrity of ecosystem, it was bound to increase ecological risk to the ecosystem, and the risk assessment of small scale, single pollutant, or only on water quality have been not satisfied the demand of sustainable development of basin water environment. Based on the response relationship between environmental flow requirements guarantee ratio (GEF) and river ecological risk index (ERI), the Sediment Quality Guideline Quotient index (SQG-Q), and the Biotic Index (BI), we construct a new comprehensive ecological risk index (CERI) to evaluate the ecological risk of Luanhe River, China. According to the response relationship between GEF and ERI, upper and lower reaches of Luanhe River (Goutaizi to Hanjiaying) were at moderate risk level (0.41 < ERI < 0.56) in dry season, and all sites were at low risk level (ERI < 0.40) in wet season; considering the contribution of heavy metals contamination in the SQG-Q, the Luanhe River was the most influenced by higher levels of heavy metals in dry season and wet season; when this index was applied to the PAHs levels, only 30 and 20% of the sampling sites appeared to be moderately impacted (0.1 < SQG-Q PAHs < 0.5) by the PAHs in dry season and wet season, respectively. The results of BI showed that half of the sites appeared to be at moderately polluted level (50% of the sites, 0.25 < BI < 0.32) and heavily polluted level (Zhangbaiwan, BI = 0.36) in dry season, and 40% of the sites appeared to be at moderately polluted level (0.26 < BI < 0.29) in wet season. The CERI showed that 70 and 30% of the sites were at moderate risk level in dry season (0.25 < CERI < 0.36) and wet season (0.26 < CERI < 0.29), respectively. The results could give insight into risk assessment of water environment and decision-making for water source security.

     

Stochastic environmental research risk assessment

In a briefly approach, sustainability can be defined as the ability to achieve economic prosperity while protecting the natural systems of the planet, and providing a higher quality of life for its people. Nowadays it is a prime and very active area of research, fundamental for human development. Several concepts based on economics, social and environmental concerns have been considered in the development of sustainability indices. The sustainability concept is, not only but necessarily, dependent on “quantification of the environment health”, necessary to determine its effectiveness in achieving or increasing the environmental capacities of ecosystems, as well as to compare alternative plans and policies, to influence decision-makers.Environmental indices are a very important tool for the analysis of some environmental assessment factors, providing quantitative criteria and synthesizing the available information. A good index should be simple to use, transparent, and expandable across other issues. In particular, environmental indices are a useful tool for several audiences, to aid environmental decision making and to allow the media to keep score of and reduce complex information to a smaller, more easily retained, amount of information [Hardi, P., DeSouza-Huletey, J.A., 2000. Issues in analyzing data and indicators for sustainable development. Ecol. Model. 130, 59–65].The goal of this work is the development of environmental indices, based on stochastically simulated scenarios, using probabilistic approaches. This study was applied to assess the impact of particulate air contamination on the Setúbal Peninsula ecosystems (South of Lisbon, Portugal).     

Area-based assessment of extinction risk

Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.     

Ideal free distributions under predation risk

 We examine the trade-off between gathering food and avoiding predation in the context of patch use by a group of animals. Often a forager will have to choose between feeding sites that differ in both energetic gain rate and predation risk. The ideal site will have a high gain rate and low risk of predation. However, intake rate will often decrease when the patch is shared with other foragers and it may be optimal for some individuals to feed elsewhere. Within the framework of ideal free theory, we investigate the distribution of foragers that will equalise individual fitness gains. We focus on a two-patch environment with continuous inputs of food. With reference to existing experimental studies, we examine the effects of risk dilution, food input rates and an animal’s expectations of the future. We identify the effect of total animal numbers when one patch is subject to predation risk and the other is safe. Conditions under which the difference in intake rate in the two patches is constant are identified, as are conditions in which the ratio of animals in the two patches is constant. If current conditions do not alter future expectations an increase in input rates to the patches promotes increased use of the risky patch. Yet, if conditions are assumed to persist indefinitely the opposite effect is seen. When both patches are subject to predation risk, dilution of risk favours more extreme distributions, and may lead to more than one stable distribution. The results of these models are used to critically analyse previous work on the energetic equivalence of risk. This paper is intended to help guide the development of new experimental studies into the energy-risk trade-off. Received: 10 February 1995/Accepted after revision: 1 October 1995     

Urban ecological risk assessment management platform

Due to rapid socioeconomic development in recent years, the influence of human activities on the urban ecosystem and environment is becoming more pronounced, causing increases in accumulated pollutants, resource consumption, and built-up land area. At this time, cities are facing complex ecological threats. We designed a platform to classify and assess the various types of ecological risks that cities and urban agglomerations may encounter. We used PHP to develop a web-based application, with nginx as the platform server, and MySQL to manage the background database. The platform provides users with a clearly structured, visual platform to manage ecological risk. By using this platform, users can quickly identify regional risk sources, find and describe risk factors, and predict possible consequences caused by these risks based on simulation modeling. The forecasting model and database can be synchronously updated and adjusted according to the actual situation. The visual web management platform and user security login system employ the MD5 encryption algorithm. The platform is designed to provide convenient, accurate, and scientific decision-making services for urban planning, construction, environmental protection, and other related areas.     

High cadmium pollution risk on vegetable amaranth and a selection for pollution-safe cultivars to lower the risk

A pot experiment was carried out by growing 29 different genotypes (Amaranthus spp.) of vegetable amaranth under low- (0.12 mg·kg^-1) and middle- (0.40 mg·kg^-1) cadmium (Cd) exposure. The result showed that amaranth was vulnerable to cadmium (Cd) contamination in soil. Variations of Cd concentrations in both roots and edible parts among genotypes were significant (P<0.001) in both treatments. Cd concentrations in edible parts of the tested genotypes grown under low- and middle-Cd levels were significantly correlated (p<0.01), implying that Cd-accumulating property of amaranth is genotype-dependent. Differences in Cd chemical forms between cv. Nanxingdayemashixian (cv. Nan), a selected typical pollution-safe cultivar (Cd-PSC), and cv. Pennongjianyexian (cv. Pen), a selected typical non-Cd-PSC, under different Cd exposure conditions were compared. It was found that the alternation of Cd in F_NaCl (Cd form extracted by 1 mol·L^-1 NaCl) may be a key factor in regulating Cd accumulation of different amaranth genotypes and that the protein-binding Cd is considered to be associated with Cd translocation. The results indicated that amaranth is capable of enduring high level of Cd pollution when grown as vegetable crop, and accordingly, consuming vegetable amaranth would bring high health risk. Therefore, adopting Cd-PSC strategy would help reducing the risk of Cd pollution in amaranth. In this study, cv. Nan was identified as a Cd-PSC and recommended to be applied production practice.     

The effects of variable predation risk on foraging and growth: less risk is not necessarily better

There is strong evidence that the way prey respond to predation risk can be fundamentally important to the structuring and functioning of natural ecosystems. The majority of work on such nonconsumptive predator effects (NCEs) has examined prey responses under constant risk or constant safety. Hence, the importance of temporal variation in predation risk, which is ubiquitous in natural systems, has received limited empirical attention. In addition, tests of theory (e.g., the risk allocation hypothesis) on how prey allocate risk have relied almost exclusively on the behavioral responses of prey to variation in risk. In this study, we examined how temporal variation in predation risk affected NCEs on prey foraging and growth. We found that high risk, when predictable, was just as energetically favorable to prey as safe environments that are occasionally pulsed by risk. This pattern emerged because even episodic pulses of risk in otherwise safe environments led to strong NCEs on both foraging and growth. However, NCEs more strongly affected growth than foraging, and we suggest that such effects on growth are most important to how prey ultimately allocate risk. Hence, exclusive focus on behavioral responses to risk will likely provide an incomplete understanding of how NCEs shape individual fitness and the dynamics of ecological communities.     

Population level risk assessment: practical considerations for evaluation of population models from a risk assessor's perspective

Population models are increasingly being considered as a tool for pesticide risk assessment in order to evaluate how potential effects act on the population level and population recovery. While the importance and difficulties of such models have been discussed by various authors during the past decade, mainly with a focus on how to describe or develop such models, several biological and methodological aspects have never been addressed so far, which are relevant for the application of models in risk assessment. These include a critical review of our knowledge of a species, the use of field data by taking methodological constraints into account, how to include uncertainty in model validation or how to measure effects. Although these aspects will be critical for the acceptance of population models by authorities, most of them apply not only to population models, but also to standard risk assessment. In the present article, we give practical recommendations for addressing these questions in population level risk assessments.     

Litter-based methods in developmental toxicity risk assessment

Developmental toxicity experiments are designed to assess potential adverse effects of drugs and other exposures on developing fetuses from pregnant dams. Extrapolation to humans is a very difficult problem. An important issue here is whether risk assessment should be based on the fetus or the litter level. In this paper, fetus and litter-based risks that properly account for cluster size are defined and compared for the beta-binomial model and a conditional model for clustered binary data. It is shown how the hierarchical structure of non-viable implants and viable but malformed offspring can be incorporated. Risks based on a joint model for death/resorption and malformation are contrasted with risks based on an adverse event defined as either death/resorption or malformation. The estimation of safe exposure levels for all risk types is discussed and it is shown how estimation of the cluster size distribution affects variance estimation. The methods are applied to data collected under the National Toxicology Program and in large sample simulations.