ERRORS RELATED TO RANDOM STREAM TEMPERATURE DATA COLLECTION IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Records of hourly water temperatures for two streams in the Upper Mississippi River basin were used to find the error between instantaneous measurements of stream water temperatures and true daily averages. The instantaneous summer water temperature measurements were assumed to be collected during daylight hours, and measurement times were selected randomly. The absolute error at the 95 percent confidence level of randomly collected stream water temperatures was less than 0.9°C for a 1 to 5m deep large river, but as large as 3.6°C for a 0.3 to lm deep small stream. Temperature readings of morning samples were usually below daily average values, and afternoon readings were usually above. Daily mean water temperatures were obtained with less than 0.23°C standard deviation from true daily averages if the daily maximum and minimum water temperatures were averaged. Sample results were obtained for the open water (summer) season only, since diurnal water temperature fluctuations in ice covered streams are usually negligible.     

THE RANDOM COMPONENT IN STREAM MEANDERING1

ABSTRACT: An experimental investigation of the random component in stream meandering is described. The results of sixty replicate experiments of meander initiation and development made using the same discharge, bed material and bed slope are described and analyzed. It is demonstrated that the commencement of meandering is a random process. The random component in meander behavior is indicated by the size of the coefficients of variation of meander amplitude and wavelength of 0.45 and 0.22, respectively. A simple model is put forward to explain the observed deterministic and random components of meander behavior.     

EVIDENCE OF CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR IN SINGAPORE RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: This paper focuses on the investigation of the existence of chaotic behavior in the Singapore rainfall data. The procedure for the determination of the minimum number of variables essential and the number of variables sufficient to model the dynamics of the rainfall process was studied. An analysis of the rainfall behavior of different time periods was also conducted. The correlation dimension was used as a basis for discriminating stochastic and chaotic behaviors. Daily rainfall records for durations of 30, 20, 10, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 years from six stations were analyzed. The delay time for the phase-space reconstruction was computed using the autocorrelation function approach. The results provide positive evidence of the existence of chaotic behavior in the daily rainfall data. The minimum number of variables essential to model the dynamics of the rainfall process was identified to be 3 while the number of variables sufficient to model the dynamics of the rainfall process ranges from 11 to 18. The results also suggest that the attractor dimensions of rainfall data of longer time periods are higher than that of shorter time periods. The study suggests a minimum number of 1500 data points required for the computation of the correlation dimension of the rainfall data.     

EFFECTS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT ON HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: A network of 225 recording raingages was operated over an area of 5200 km² in the St. Louis region during 1971-1975, in conjunction with an extensive investigation of urban effects on precipitation. Study of urban-induced effects on the frequency of heavy rainstorms has revealed a pronounced increase in the occurrence of storms producing 25 mm (1 inch) or more of rain. The increase is greatest in an area that is frequently in the path of storms passing across two urban-industrial regions. Analyses of raincells (rain intensity centers) within heavy convective storms shows a pronounced increase in water yield from cells exposed to potential urban effects, compared with those exposed only to the surrounding rural environment. Naturally-occurring heavy cells tend to undergo the greatest enhancement from urban exposure. Other analyses indicate an above-average frequency of excessive rain rates for periods of five minutes to two hours downwind of the urban-industrial complex. It is concluded that urban-induced intensification of short-duration rainstorms is sufficient to merit inclusion in the design and operation of urban-area hydrologic systems that control the flow of surplus storm water.     

APPLICATION OF INFILTRATION THEORY FOR THE DETERMINATION OF EXCESS RAINFALL HYETOGRAPH1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to show through the use of numerical examples that modern infiltration theory can be used in everyday hydrologic practice. The actual use of four methods of calculation of infiltration rates and of excess rainfall rates is demonstrated for the case when simultaneous data of rainfall and stream flow are available for a watershed. The four methods are: (1) the well known Π-index method, (2) the traditional Horton's infiltration capacity formula, (3) the less traditional Green and Ampt infiltration capacity formula, and (4) a ponding time approach. It is recommended that hydrologists become at least familiar with the numerical procedures involved in the ponding time and postponding infiltration approach. This approach, though not flawless, should be preferred to the other three methods if use of the other three is at all considered.     

GENERATION OF HOURLY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: A rainfall model was developed to divide daily rainfall into storms and distribute storm depths over storm duration for input into the Stanford Watershed Model.     

STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON THE RANDOMNESS OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: Annual maximum daily rainfall data from nine stations throughout the southern slopes of the Eastern Italian Alps with record length of 67–68 years have been analyzed with the aim of verifying if their internal structure justifies the assumption of independence and identical distribution, or the “White noise hypothesis.” The approach is to consider the hypothesis H₀ of white noise as the intersection of several sub-hypotheses, each concerning one of the characteristics of a white noise process. To this end the nine series were subjected to various statistical tests regarding randomness, independence, change-points, and predictability. The results are examined first individually and then globally. They indicate that in eight of the nine considered time series the “white noise hypothesis” was rejected.     

INFILTRATION EVALUATION OF FOUR MECHANICAL RAINFALL SIMULATION TECHNIQUES IN SIERRA NEVADA WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Little quantitative site-specific infiltration, runoff and sediment transport data for Tahoe Basin soils under varying storm events or stage of development are available. Modular (Ml), F-type (M2), Impact nozzle (M3), and Impact-Fan nozzle (M4) rainfall simulators were evaluated as to their practicality and ability to characterize infiltration for the Cagwin Soil Series within the Tahoe Basin. Three slope (0–15,15–30, >30%) and four plot conditions (natural with duff [P1], natural without duff [P2], disturbed without duff [P3], and disturbed with duff [P4]) were studied. The measured data were incorporated into a modified Philip's infiltration model and multiple non-linear regression analyses were used to examine relationships between method, slope, plot condition, and infiltration characteristics.^t Simulation methods Ml and M4 produced statistically similar (P=0.01) infiltration data, as did M2 and M3 which produced lower infiltration rates. All were found suitable for use in Sierra Nevada watersheds. Ml was considered most practical. Slope had negligible effect on infiltration. The plot condition was found to significantly influence infiltration, and the effect of each plot condition was significantly different. Final infiltration rates ranged from 4.7 to 6.2 cm/hr. Thus, the Cagwin soil demonstrated moderate to high infiltration rates even when exposed to extreme storm conditions (8–10 cm/hr).     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN FLOW DISTURBED BY RAINFALL1

Studies were conducted in a closed system recirculating research flume to evaluate the relative effects of high intensity rainfall on von Karman's universal constant and the sediment transport capacity of shallow flow. The tests in this study were conducted at flow depths of 0.3 ft and less with discharges less than 0.5 cfs. The point velocities in the flow were determined with a Pace CD-25 pressure transducer and an inclined manometer connected in parallel to a Pitot-static tube of the standard Prandtl design. Regression analyses were performed on the velocity data to determine the best fit dimensionless velocity curve on semilogarithmic paper. Von Karman's universal constant was then evaluated from the slope of the regression line. Point sediment samples were siphoned from the flow with a stainless steel-pipette sediment sampler. Sediment concentrations were found with a filtering technique. Sediment samples were taken with and without rainfall to evaluate the relative effect of the rainfall on the transport capacity of shallow flow.     

ISOLATING THE RANDOM RAMSTORM COMPONENT FROM BASIN RESPONSE FACTORS IN RAINFALLRUNOFF DATA1

ABSTRACT: Gaged watersheds can provide information as to geomorphic, and geologic influence on the spatial variability of rainfall-runoff relationships. However, correlations between raingages distributed throughout the basin, and stream discharge are influenced by both storm patterns and drainage basin characteristics. Factor analysis has been applied to rainfall-runoff relationship to isolate the storm pattern from a basin response factor. Comparing two periods of time separated by eight years reveals relative stability in the rainfall attenuation (basin response) factor, while storm patterns for the two periods of record are quite disparate.     

CONTRIBUTIONS OF RAINFALL TO CONSTITUENT LOADS IN STORM RUNOFF FROM URBAN CATCHMENTS1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall is a significant source of some constituents, particularly nitrogen species, in storm runoff from urban catchments. Median contributions of rainfall to storm runoff loads of 12 constituents from 31 urban catchments, representing eight geographic locations within the United States, ranged from 2 percent for suspended solids to 74 percent for total nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen. The median contribution of total nitrogen in rainfall to runoff loads was 41 percent. Median contributions of total-recoverable lead in rainfall to runoff loads varied by as much as an order of magnitude between catchments in the same geographic location. This indicates that average estimates of rainfall contributions to constituent loading in storm runoff may not be suitable in studies requiring accurate constituent mass-balance computations.     

A SIMULATION OF SMOOTH-VARIABLE INTENSITY RAINFALL PATTERNS1

ABSTRACT: Continuous rainfall patterns are currently simulated by approximating them by stair-stepped (piece-wise) patterns. The effects of this approximation on infiltration and runoff processes are not well known. A new technique for simulating smooth-variable intensity rainfall patterns is presented. This technique is based on the fundamental principles of a moving water head in a container. The proposed technique is general and capable of simulating any rainfall pattern. However, as the rainfall pattern gets more complicated, the equipment required for simulation becomes more involved. The proposed technique has been tested experimentally. A close agreement was found between the theoretical and experimental simulations. It is concluded that the proposed technique might be very useful in studying the infiltration and runoff processes under variable intensity rainfall, especially for simple convex patterns.     

SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Several methods have been developed to interpolate point rainfall data and integrate areal rainfall data from any network of stations. From previous studies, it can be concluded that models for spatial analysis of rainfall are dependent on topography, area of analysis, type of rainfall, and density of gauging network. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a set of six appropriate models for point and areal rainfall estimations over a 4000 square mile area in South Florida. In this study, a case of developing spatial continuity model for monthly rainfall from a database that had various lengths of records and missing data is documented. The spatial correlation and variogram models for monthly rainfall were developed. Six methods of spatial interpolation were applied and the results validated with historical observations. The results of the study indicate that the multiquadric, kriging, and optimal interpolation schemes are the best three methods for interpolation of monthly rainfall within the study area. The optimal and kriging methods have the advantage of providing estimates of the error of interpolation. The optimal interpolation method uses the spatial correlation function and the kriging method uses the variogram function. The two spatial functions are related. Either of the two methods provide good estimates of monthly point and areal rainfall in the study area.     

SPACE-TIME VALIDATION OF A THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL MODEL1

A probability model for predicting the occurrence and magnitude of thunderstorm rainfall developed in the southwestern United States was tested in the metropolitan Chicago area with reasonable success, especially for the moderate to the extreme runoff-producing events. The model requires the estimation of two parameters, the mean number of events per year and the conditional probability of rain given that an event has occurred. To tie in the data from more than one gage in an area, an event can be defined in several ways, such as the areal mean rainfall exceeding 0.50 inch and at least one gage receiving more than 1.0 inch. This type of definition allows both of the model parameters to be obtained from daily warm-season rainfall records. Regardless of the definition used a Poisson distribution adequately described the number of events per season. A negative binomial distribution was derived as representing the frequency density function for rainfall where several gages are employed in defining a storm. Chicago data fit both distributions very well at events with relatively high return periods. The results indicate the possibility of using the model on a regional basis where limited amount of data may be used to estimate parameters for extensive areas.     

A RAPID METHOD OF ESTIMATING MEAN AREAL RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT. A special case of generalized trend surface analysis is examined. This includes a linear surface. It is shown that for most hydrologic problems this case determines mean areal rainfall sufficiently accurately. Based on this conclusion, equations for rapid computation of mean areal rainfall are derived for this linear case. Results of the linear case are compared with other traditional methods of estimating mean areal rainfall.     

COMPARING SOME METHODS OF ESTIMATING MEAN AREAL RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: A comparison of 13 different methods of estimating mean areal rainfall was made on two areas in New Mexico, U.S.A., and one area in Great Britain. Daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data were utilized. All methods, in general, yielded comparable estimates, especially for yearly values. This suggested that a simpler method would be preferable for estimating mean areal rainfall in these areas.     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUMMER-SEASON RAINFALL EVENTS AND LAKE-SURFACE AREA1

ABSTRACT: Research is presented that statistically analyzes the relationship between lake area and precipitation. These hydrologic variables are assessed in part using LANDSAT MSS satellite data and digital-image processing techniques. Results show dramatic regional hydrologic differences in lake area fluctuations and in lake area response to short term climatic variation.