MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL TOWARD RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A reliable forecasting model is essential in real‐time flood forecasting for reducing natural damage. Efforts to develop a real‐time forecasting model over the past two decades have been numerous. This work applies the Grey model to forecast rainfall and runoff owing to the model's relative ability to predict the future using a small amount of historical data. Such a model significantly differs from the stochastic and deterministic models developed previously. Ten historical storm events from two catchment areas in northern Taiwan are selected to calibrate and verify the model. Results in this study demonstrate that the proposed models can reasonably forecast runoff one to four hours ahead, if the Grey error prediction method is further used to update the output of the model.     

A Hydrologic Data Screening Procedure for Exploring Monotonic Trends and Shifts in Rainfall and Runoff Patterns

A thorough understanding of past and present hydrologic responses to changes in precipitation patterns is crucial for predicting future conditions. The main objectives of this study were to determine temporal changes in rainfall‐runoff relationship and to identify significant trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall and runoff time series. Ninety‐year rainfall and runoff time series datasets from the Gasconade and Meramec watersheds in east‐central Missouri were used to develop data screening procedure to assess changes in the rainfall and runoff temporal patterns. A statistically significant change in mean and variance was detected in 1980 in the rainfall and runoff time series within both watersheds. In addition, both the rainfall and runoff time series indicated the presence of nonstationary attributes such as statistically significant monotonic trends and/or change in mean and variance, which should be taken into consideration when using the time series to predict future scenarios. The annual peak runoff and the annual low flow in the Meramec watershed showed significant temporal changes compared to that in the Gasconade watershed. Water loss in both watersheds was found to be significantly increasing which is potentially due to the increase in groundwater pumping for water supply purposes.     

FLOW PERSISTENCE AS A MODIFIER OF SEASONAL RUNOFF PATTERNS1

ABSTRACT: The effect of flow persistence on seasonal patterns of watershed runoff was modeled by using runoff of the immediate antecedent month as an index. Monthly runoff was expressed as a function of monthly rainfall, season of the year, and runoff of the antecedent month. The three independent variables were expressed functionally as sliding polynomials, thus producing a piece-wise, form-free, three-dimensional causative structure. A model form allowing complete interactivity of the three independent variables could not be optimized because of insufficient data with high values of both antecedent runoff and monthly rainfall. A model with reduced interactivity was successfully optimized. Data sets from five watersheds ranging from 0.14 to 398 square miles were analyzed. Results were presented as a series of contour maps that showed contours of monthly runoff in the data space of season and monthly rain. In the series of maps, the patterns of the runoff contours changed with changing values of antecedent runoff. During the wet season of the year the contours changed significantly with antecedent runoff, but changes in the dry season were minimal. The quantitative change of runoff was more readily portrayed with cross-sections through the contoured surfaces.     

DEVELOPMENT OF DESIGN STORM HYETOGRAPHS FOR CINCINNATI,OHIO1

ABSTRACT A synthetic storm rainfall hyetograph for a one-year design frequency is derived from the one-year intensity-duration curve developed for Cincinnati, Ohio. Detailed rainfall data for a three-year period were collected from three raingages triangulating the Bloody Run Sewer Watershed, an urban drainage areas of 2380 acres'in Cincinnati, Ohio. The advancement of the synthetic storm pattern is obtained from an analysis of the antecedent precipitation immediately preceding the maximum period of three selected durations. Rains which produced excessive runoff at least for some duration were considered only. The same approach can be used for other design frequencies. The purpose of this study is to provide synthetic storm hyetographs to be used as input in deterministic mathematical models simulating urban storm water runoff for the design, analysis and possible surcharge prediction of sewer systems.     

Runoff and soil loss from steep slopes treated with low cost bioengineering measures

Soil loss and surface runoff patterns were studied in erosion plots developed on manmade steep slopes (60 percent) over three years (1997–2000) in which rainfall ranged from 1338.4 to 1429.2 mm/year. Surface runoff and soil loss was examined under three different rainfall intensity classes. Runoff was mainly controlled by the rainfall distribution pattern on the seasonal scale. The soil loss was influenced by runoff during the first year. Both soil loss and runoff were reduced due to bioengineering measures in the first year irrespective of species planted. In the third year, combined effects of growth of grasses on protected plots, soil compaction and sediment exhaustion was noticed on runoff and soil loss. This was reflected by reduction in the runoff and soil loss from untreated and treated plots. In the high intensity class, reduction in runoff in treated plots was about 50 percent in three years and reduction in soil loss ranged between 94–95 percent in all plots. Physical treatment with brushwood structures was more efficient in erosion control in the low intensity class.     

ESTIMATING RUNOFF VOLUMES FROM URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Estimations of runoff volumes from urban areas can be made by the equation Q = a A σ(P_e– b), where Q is the runoff volume, a is the part of the total area A Contributing to runoff, P_e is the rainfall amount for a single event, and b is the initial rainfall losses. For the evaluation of a and b, rainfall/runoff measurements were made in five areas of sizes between 0.035 km² and 1.450 km². By linear regression analysis of rainfall volumes versus runoff volumes, the initial rainfall losses were found to vary from 0.38 mm to 0.70 mm for the different areas. The parts of the areas contributing to runoff were found to be proportional to the impermeable parts of the mas. The equation is applicable in urban areas with well defined paved surfaces and roofs and with a negligible amount of runoff from permeable areas.     

AN EVALUATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BASED ON RAINFALL/RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of flood frequency estimates simulated from a rainfall/runoff model is based on (1) computation of the equivalent years of record for regional estimating equations based on 50 small stream sites in Oklahoma and (2) computation of the bias for synthetic flood estimates as compared to observed estimates at 97 small stream sites with at least 20 years of record in eight eastern states. Because of the high intercorrelation of synthetic flood estimates between watersheds, little or no regional (spatial) information may be added to the network as a result of the modeling activity. The equivalent years of record for the regional estimating equations based totally on synthetic flood discharges is shown to be considerably less than the length of rainfall record used to simulate the runoff. Furthermore, the flood estimates from the rainfall/runoff model consistently underestimate the flood discharges based on observed record, particularly for the larger floods. Depending on the way bias is computed, the synthetic estimate of the 100-year flood discharge varies from 11 to 29 percent less than the value based on observed record. In addition, the correlation between observed and synthetic flood frequency estimates at the same site is also investigated. The degree of correlation between these estimates appears to vary with recurrence interval. Unless the correlation between these two estimates is known, it is not possible to compute a weighted estimate with minimum variance.     

ASSESSMENT OF STORMWATER RUNOFF FOR RECYCLE IN COOLING TOWERS AT KSC,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: In addition to measuring the quantity of stormwater runoff generated during ten rainfall events from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) area of Kennedy Space Center (KSC), historical rainfall records were also used for determining the feasibility of implementing a program of stormwater recycling to air conditioning cooling towers. It was projected that 0.182 million gallons per day (MGD) of runoff would be generated from the VAR area during a year of average rainfall (48 inches); only 0.117 MGD is required for coolant makeup water in the VAR area. Due to the seasonal variations in rainfall, stormwater recycling may not always meet all the cooling water demands.     

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation,rainfall variability and sustainable agricultural development in the Ho Municipality,Ghana

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, has been identified to have significant influence on rainfall variability throughout the world, especially in the tropics. Such variability in rainfall has implications for agrarian economies, such as that in Ghana. This study therefore sought to demonstrate the effect of ENSO‐induced variability in annual and seasonal rainfall on the development of sustainable agriculture in the Ho Municipality of Ghana. Using 61 years of monthly rainfall data (1955–2015) for the Ho Municipality and ENSO indices, this study showed that 15% of the variability in total annual rainfall is explained by the ENSO phenomena. Mean annual rainfall and rainfall in the major rainy season decreased for El Niño years, in addition to a more variable rainfall compared to that received in La Niña years. The major growing season was observed to be longer in La Niña years and shorter in El Niño years. This means that the potential for crop cultivation will be severely hampered in an El Niño year. Farmers within the municipality are therefore encouraged to harness other complementary water sources for farming activities and also employ water management strategies during El Niño years.     

Analysis of Extreme Summer Rainfall Using Climate Teleconnections and Typhoon Characteristics in South Korea1

Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.     

POLYNOMIAL-BASED DISAGGREGATION OF HOURLY RAINFALL FOR CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION1

Hydrologic modeling of urban watersheds for designs and analyses of stormwater conveyance facilities can be performed in either an event-based or continuous fashion. Continuou simulation requires, among other things, the use of a time series of rainfall amounts. However, for urban drainage basins, which are typically small, the temporal resolution of the rainfall time series must be quite fine, and often on the order of 5 to 15 minutes. This poses a significant challenge because rainfall-gauging records are usually kept only for hourly or longer time steps. The time step sizes in stochastic rainfall generators are usually also too large for application to urban runoff modeling situations. Thus, there is a need for methods by which hourly rainfall amounts can be disaggregated to shorter time intervals. This paper presents and compares a number of approaches to this problem, which are based on the use of polynomial approximating functions. Results of these evaluations indicate that a desegregation method presented by Ormsbee (1989) is a relatively good performer when storm durations are short (2 hours), and that a quadratic spline-based approach is a good choice for longer-duration storms. Based on these results, the Ormsbee technique is recommended because it provides good performance, and can be applied easily to long time series of precipitation records. The quadratic spline-based approach is recommended as a close second choice because it performed the best most consistently, but remains more difficult to apply than the Ormsbee technique. Results of this study also indicate that, on average, all of the disaggregation methods evaluated introduce a severe negative bias into maximum rainfall intensities. This is cause for some well-justified concern, as the characteristics of runoff hydrographs are quite sensitive to maximum storm intensities. Thus, there is a need to continue the search for simple yet effective hourly rainfall disaggregation methods.     

IMPACTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATIC REGIMES AND COASTAL LAND USE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC‐HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate stream flow for a 14‐year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14‐year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two stream flow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing stream flow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14‐year distributions of stream flow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14‐year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m³/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m³/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern.     

OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS OF SATELLITE SNOW COVER OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Several federal and state water resources agencies and NASA have recently completed an Applications Systems Verification and Transfer (ASVT) project on the operational applications of satellite snow cover observations. When satellite snow cover data were tested in both empirical seasonal runoff estimation and short term modeling approaches, a definite potential for reducing forecast error was evident. Three years of testing in California resulted in reduction of seasonal stream flow forecast error was evident. Three years of testing in California resulted in reduction of seasonal stream flow forecast error from 15 percent to 10 percent on three study basins; and modeling studies on the Boise River basin in Idaho indicated that satellite snow cover could be used to reduce short term forecast error by up to 9.6 percent (5 day forecast). Potential benefits from improved satellite snow cover based predictions across the 11 western states total 10 million dollars for hydropower and 28 million dollars for irrigation annually. The truly operational application of the new technology in the West, however, will only be possible when the turnaround time for all data is reduced to 72 hours, and the water management agencies can be assured of a continuing supply of operational snow cover data from space.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

Modes of Variability of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Mexico

The aim of this study is to identify temporal and spatial variability patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall in Mexico. A set of 769 weather stations located in Mexico was examined. The country was divided into 12 homogeneous rainfall regions via principal component analysis. A Pettitt test was conducted to perform a homogeneity analysis for detecting abrupt changes in mean rainfall levels, and a Mann‐Kendall test was conducted to examine the presence of monotonically increasing/decreasing patterns in the data. In total, 14.4% of the annual series was deemed nonstationary. Fourteen percent of the samples were nonstationary in the winter and summer, and 9% were nonstationary in the spring and autumn. According to the results, the nonstationarity of some seasonal rainfall series may be associated with the presence of atmospheric phenomena (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation). A rainfall frequency analysis was performed for the nonstationary annual series, and significant differences in the return levels can be expected for the scenarios analyzed. The identification of areas that are more susceptible to changes in rainfall levels will improve water resource management plans in the country, and it is expected that these plans will take into account nonstationary theory.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen in runoff after phosphorus- or nitrogen-based manure applications

Application of beef cattle () manure based on nitrogen (N) requirements of crops has resulted in elevated concentrations of soil test phosphorus (P) in surface soils, and runoff from this cropland can contribute to eutrophication of surface waters. We conducted a 3-yr field study (2005-2007) on a Lethbridge loam soil cropped to dryland barley () in southern Alberta, Canada to evaluate the effect of annual and triennial P-based and annual N-based feedlot manure on P and N in runoff. The manure was spring applied and incorporated. There was one unamended control plot. A portable rainfall simulator was used to generate runoff in the spring of each year after recent manure incorporation, and the runoff was analyzed for total P, total dissolved P, total particulate P, dissolved reactive P, total N, total dissolved N, total particulate N, NO-N, and NH-N. Annual or triennial P-based application resulted in significantly ( ≤ 0.05) lower (by 50 to 94%) concentrations or loads of mainly dissolved P fractions in runoff for some years compared with annual N-based application, and this was related to lower rates of annual manure P applied. For example, mean dissolved reactive P concentrations in 2006 and 2007 were significantly lower for the annual P-based (0.12-0.20 mg L) than for the annual N-based application (0.24-0.48 mg L), and mean values were significantly lower for the triennial P-based (0.06-0.13 mg L) than for the annual N-based application. In contrast, other P fractions in runoff were unaffected by annual P-based application. Our findings suggested no environmental benefit of annual P-based application over triennial P-based application with respect to P and N in runoff. Similar concentrations and loads of N fractions in runoff for the P- and N-based applications indicated that shifting to a P-based application would not significantly influence N in runoff.     

SIZING OF SURFACE WATER RUNOFF DETENTION PONDS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historically, storm water management programs and criteria have focused on quantity issues related to flooding and drainage system design. Traditional designs were based on large rainfall‐runoff events such as those having two‐year to 100‐year return periods. While these are key criteria for management and control of peak flows, detention basin designs based on these criteria may not provide optimal quality treatment of storm runoff. As evidenced by studies performed by numerous public and private organizations, the water quality impacts of storm water runoff are primarily a function of more frequent rainfall‐runoff events rather than the less frequent events that cause peak flooding. Prior to this study there had been no detailed investigations to characterize the variability of the more frequent rainfall events on Guam. Also, there was a need to develop some criteria that could be applied by designers, developers, and agency officials in order to reduce the impact of storm water runoff on the receiving bodies. The objectives of this paper were three‐fold: (1) characterize the hourly rainfall events with respect to volume, frequency, duration, and the time between storm events; (2) evaluate the rainfall‐runoff characteristics with respect to capture volume for water quality treatment; and (3) prepare criteria for sizing and designing of storm water quality management facilities. The rainfall characterization studies have provided insight into the characteristics of rainstorms that are likely to produce non‐point source pollution in storm water runoff. By far the most significant fmdings are the development of a series of design curves that can be used in the actual sizing of storm water detention and treatment facilities. If applied correctly, these design curves could lead to a reduction of non‐point source pollution to Guam's streams, estuaries, and coastal environments.