HazMat transportation safety assessment: Analysis of a “Viareggio-like” incident in the Netherlands

Relevant safety issues are associated with hazardous materials transportation, especially when transport routes cross populated areas. On March 6th, 2015, a passenger train collided with the last rail car of a freight train in Tilburg, the Netherlands. The last car contained 50 t of liquefied 1,3-butadiene. As a result of the collision, the last car showed deformation; a small leakage occurred but fortunately with no relevant consequences. However, extremely severe consequences could have happened, such as in the rail accident that occurred in Viareggio, Italy in 2009. In this work, the case of Tilburg was firstly outlined and explored by qualitative methods, in order to identify possible realistic final scenarios that could have happened. Second, the potential consequences of the identified scenarios were estimated through conventional integral model for physical effects evaluation. Comparison with the Viareggio case was also shown in order to support the discussion of the results obtained. Finally, lessons learned after the incident, policy making considerations, and indications for the risk mitigation of hazardous materials transportation are given.     

Lessons learned from recent incidents: Facility siting, atmospheric venting, and operator information systems

Recent incidents have focused attention on a number of technical and management systems that need to be addressed by industry. A multiple layer of protection approach is essential for the prevention of incidents and/or reduction of consequences. Safety culture and operational discipline are the overall embracing factors that influence the safety performance of a facility. However, as recent events have indicated, there are a number of technical and engineering issues that must also be developed and implemented appropriately. Some of these issues that could lead to incidents with catastrophic consequences include facility siting and atmospheric relief venting. Impact of operator information systems on the prevention of releases of hazardous materials from their containment is also another significant factor that should be given appropriate attention.

This paper describes these three topics based on the findings from recent incidents and historical data. Engineering standards, regulatory requirements, and industry practices are discussed for facility siting, atmospheric relief venting, and operator information systems. Finally, a summary of gaps and needs in technology, standards, and practices is presented.     

Risk-based maintenance (RBM): a quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning

The overall objective of the maintenance process is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimize the total life cycle cost without compromising safety or environmental issues. Risk assessment integrates reliability with safety and environmental issues and therefore can be used as a decision tool for preventive maintenance planning. Maintenance planning based on risk analysis minimizes the probability of system failure and its consequences (related to safety, economic, and environment). It helps management in making correct decisions concerning investment in maintenance or related field. This will, in turn, result in better asset and capital utilization.

This paper presents a new methodology for risk-based maintenance. The proposed methodology is comprehensive and quantitative. It comprises three main modules: risk estimation module, risk evaluation module, and maintenance planning module. Details of the three modules are given. A case study, which exemplifies the use of methodology to a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system, is also discussed.     

Underwater LNG release: Does a pool form on the water surface? What are the characteristics of the vapor released?

One of the scenarios of concern in assessing the safety issues related to transportation of LNG in a marine environment (ship or underwater pipeline) is the release of LNG underwater. This scenario has not been given the same level of scientific attention in the literature compared to surface releases and assessment of consequences therefrom. This paper addresses questions like, (1) does an LNG spill underwater form a pool on the water surface and subsequently evaporate like an LNG spill “on the surface” producing cold, heavier than air vapors?, and (2) what is the range of expected temperatures of the vapor, generated by LNG release due to heat transfer within the water column, when it emanates from the water surface?Very limited data from two field tests of LNG underwater release are reviewed. Also presented are the results from tests conducted in other related industries (metal casting, nuclear fission and fusion, chemical processing, and alternative fuel vehicles) where a hot (or cold) liquid is injected into a bulk cold (or hot) liquid at different depths.A mathematical model is described which calculates the temperature of vapor emanating at the water surface, and the liquid fraction of released LNG that surfaces, if any, to form a pool on the water surface. The model includes such variables as the LNG release rate, diameter of the jet at release, depth of release and water body temperature. Results obtained from the model for postulated release conditions are presented. Comparison of predicted results with available LNG underwater release test data is also provided.     

铁路危险货物运输风险度量模型

为度量铁路危险货物运输对于人员、环境和财产等方面的危害,在已有危险货物运输风险度量研究的基础上,针对铁路运输的特点,以传统的双指标(概率和后果)技术风险度量模型为框架,构建铁路危险货物运输路径风险度量模型。模型综合考虑人员伤亡、财产损失、运输中断和环境破坏多方面后果,通过有效度量运输风险,为铁路危险货物运输组织优化提供依据。     

Ensuring emergency planning & response meet the minimum Process Safety Management (PSM) standards requirements

When incidents happen and the consequences are not mitigated effectively, one of the indicated failures consists of ineffective emergency planning and response (EPR). EPR is an important aspect of the Process Safety Management (PSM) Standards, and the guidelines are stated in CFR 1910.119 (n) which explains the minimum elements of emergency response and procedures in handling emergency or small releases. Despite its implementation in 1992, CSB finds ineffective EPR system in certain accidents such as the Missouri DPS Enterprise Chlorine Gas Release accident in 2002. DPS EPR failed in planning on location of emergency equipment and accessibility. Many other accidents have occurred throughout the decade and even though organizations have their own EPR system, there are issues in meeting minimum PSM requirements. There also exists the problem of self-regulatory policies practiced by organizations, which might not meet these requirements as well. To help organizations meet these minimum requirements, the purpose of this paper is to present a structured and easy technique to plan and implement EPR as per PSM requirements. A model has been developed based on this technique, and its application has been tested as a case study in a refinery in Malaysia and discussed throughout this report. The results reflected the feasibility of this model as it helped users to track and manage documents efficiently. This technique has the potential to help users to manage EPR better and to reduce adverse impacts to people, environment and assets.     

安全屏障在蒸气云爆炸中的控制效果研究

为了研究安全屏障在蒸气云爆炸事故中的控制效果,运用蝴蝶结法、TNT当量法建立研究模式,计算安全屏障作用下的事故概率、分析事故后果,并结合风险矩阵从概率和后果方面评价其风险程度。以事故概率、风险程度为指标,表征、分析安全屏障的控制效果,并对较高、高风险提出控制措施。将该模式应用于实例分析,结果表明该企业的安全屏障可以降低事故的发生概率。但是由于后果严重度的影响,其风险程度仍处于较高水平,需要进一步加强安全措施。     

Multilevel modeling in traffic safety research: two empirical examples illustrating the consequences of ignoring hierarchies

OBJECTIVES: This commentary illustrates the advantages of multilevel modeling compared to statistical techniques that ignore hierarchies, based on two empirical traffic safety examples. METHODS: The common concept shared by different definitions of multilevel modeling is identified and illustrated. Each definition defines multilevel modeling in its own way but they all refer to hierarchies. Conceptual issues inherently related to hierarchies are then pointed out and illustrated. RESULTS: Broadly speaking there are two important consequences of ignoring a hierarchical structure in the data. The first consequence, underestimation of standard errors, is illustrated with data from an observational study on seatbelt behavior. Two effects that were significant at the 5% level in a single-level model were no longer found to be significant in a two-level model. The single-level model is therefore bound to lead to erroneous conclusions regarding variables that could have an impact on seatbelt use and, ultimately, on increasing the level of traffic safety. The second consequence, related to contextual information, is illustrated with data from a roadside survey on drink driving. Of particular interest is the relationship between Traffic Count, an aggregated level 2 explanatory variable and Odds of drink driving, an individual level 1 dependent variable. CONCLUSIONS: Like every statistical technique, multilevel models should be used with caution and reservation. However, given certain limitations, multilevel modeling is very useful and valuable to traffic safety research.     

Dimensions,antecedents, and consequences of workaholism: a conceptual integration and extension

While the concept of workaholism has received a good deal of attention in the popular press, theoretical and empirical research have lagged behind. In part, the lack of a formal, agreed upon definition of the construct and its dimensions has hampered research on this topic. The purpose of this review is to offer a cohesive definition of workaholism, discuss its underlying dimensions, and identify its key antecedents and consequences. Measurement issues, directions for future research, and implications for management practice are discussed as well. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

可拓综合评价在燃气系统泄漏事故应急救援中的应用

燃气系统发生泄漏,如不能及时有效进行应急救援,极易引发严重的事故后果,因此,准确确定应急响应等级,进行有针对性的救援工作是控制燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性的关键。从众多影响因素中,分析并确定了影响燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性的主要因素,对各因素严重程度进行了等级划分。引入了可拓工程方法,建立了燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性可拓综合评价模型,阐述了评价步骤和方法。当各影响因素分属不同等级时,根据所建模型能综合确定燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性等级,依此进行事故应急救援分级响应。该方法能够克服人为评判失误,有利于指导有效事故救援,控制事故影响范围。运用该模型对一事故案例进行了计算,计算结果表明此方法用于确定应急救援响应等级是可行的。     

Work-contingent self-esteem: A boon or bane for worker well-being?

Work-contingent self-esteem (WCSE; the degree to which workers' self-esteem is based on workplace performance) has positive consequences for performance, yet less is known about its consequences for well-being. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on WCSE by examining the mechanisms through which it impacts well-being at work and outside of work. We challenge contingent self-esteem (CSE) theory (Crocker & Park, 2004), which argues that CSE negatively impacts well-being by fostering internally controlled (introjected) motivation and diminishing autonomous motivation, by suggesting that WCSE fosters autonomous and internally controlled motivation and thus has both beneficial and harmful effects on well-being. We also expand CSE theory by suggesting that WCSE can negatively impact well-being outcomes by causing work–nonwork conflict. Results from a time-separated design in a sample of full-time employees supported our arguments, revealing that WCSE impacted well-being at work through both autonomous and internally controlled work motivations. WCSE also had negative effects on well-being at and outside of work through work–nonwork conflict. The beneficial effects of WCSE outweighed its harmful effects on job satisfaction and neutralized its harmful effects for all other outcomes. We discuss theoretical implications for CSE theory, self-determination theory, and work–nonwork issues and note important practical implications.     

Machine learning based quantitative consequence prediction models for toxic dispersion casualty

Incidental release of toxic chemicals can pose extreme danger to life in the vicinity. Therefore, it is crucial for emergency responders, plant operators, and safety professionals to have a fast and accurate prediction to evaluate possible toxic dispersion life-threatening consequences. In this work, a toxic chemical dispersion casualty database that contains 450 leak scenarios of 18 toxic chemicals is constructed to develop a machine learning based quantitative property-consequence relationship (QPCR) model to estimate the affected area caused by toxic chemical release within a certain death rate. The results show that the developed QPCR model can predict the toxic dispersion casualty range with root mean square error of maximum distance, minimum distance, and maximum width less than 0.2, 0.4, and 0.3, which indicates that the constructed model has satisfying accuracy in predicting toxic dispersion ranges under different lethal consequences. The model can be further expanded to accommodate more toxic chemicals and leaking scenarios.     

Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

关于国际河流生态环境安全的思考

生态环境安全是当今国际社会关注的热点,而国际河流流域的水资源保护与生态环境安全又是这一热点中的敏感点.本文结合中国与有关国家的国际河流的实际,分析了国际河流流域水资源保护与生态环境安全的有关问题、产生的原因与后果及其相互关系,指出维护生态环境安全存在的特殊问题,并提出了对策与建议.     

A proactive approach to human error detection and identification in aviation and air traffic control

In recent years, there has been a realization that total elimination of human error may be difficult to achieve. A further reduction of accidents will require a better understanding of how practitioners manage their errors in ways that consequences are contained or mitigated. With this goal in mind, the present study has set out to propose a framework of cognitive strategies in error detection that would make human performance resilient to changes in work demands. The literature regarded error detection as a spontaneous process that occurs either while an action is executed (action-based detection) or after action feedback (outcome-based detection). To help practitioners maintain a state of mindfulness and introspection, this study proposes several cognitive strategies such as, rehearsing tasks for future execution, bringing into conscious attention routine tasks, seeing how trajectories change over time, and cross-checking data for reliability. Two further detection mechanisms are proposed at the situation assessment and planning stages of performance. Awareness-based detection may include revising a model of the situation, finding hidden assumptions, and testing the plausibility of assumptions. Planning-based detection addresses issues such as, identifying uncertainties in a plan, thinking out possible errors, and deciding when and how often to review task progress. Finally, several attitudinal factors and team factors are presented that affect the processes of error detection and identification. The cognitive strategies in error detection together with the attitudinal and team factors constitute a framework for designing the content of error management training.     

Risk analysis for oil & gas pipelines: A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis

Vast amounts of oil & gas (O&G) are consumed around the world everyday that are mainly transported and distributed through pipelines. Only in Canada, the total length of O&G pipelines is approximately 100,000 km, which is the third largest in the world. Integrity of these pipelines is of primary interest to O&G companies, consultants, governmental agencies, consumers and other stakeholder due to adverse consequences and heavy financial losses in case of system failure. Fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) are two graphical techniques used to perform risk analysis, where FTA represents causes (likelihood) and ETA represents consequences of a failure event. ‘Bow-tie’ is an approach that integrates a fault tree (on the left side) and an event tree (on the right side) to represent causes, threat (hazards) and consequences in a common platform. Traditional ‘bow-tie’ approach is not able to characterize model uncertainty that arises due to assumption of independence among different risk events. In this paper, in order to deal with vagueness of the data, the fuzzy logic is employed to derive fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of basic events in fault tree and to estimate fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of output event consequences. The study also explores how interdependencies among various factors might influence analysis results and introduces fuzzy utility value (FUV) to perform risk assessment for natural gas pipelines using triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability criteria, namely, social, environmental and economical consequences. The present study aims to help owners of transmission and distribution pipeline companies in risk management and decision-making to consider multi-dimensional consequences that may arise from pipeline failures. The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help informed decision-making in the risk management process. A simple example is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.     

Measuring and analyzing adaptive capacity at management levels of resilient systems

Resilience engineering (RE) is capable of handling disruptive events and controlling their consequences in process industries such as petrochemical plants. This study aims at analyzing the level of adaptive capacity and identifying effective factors on developing adaptive capacity in the organizational structure of process industries. The data of this study were obtained through direct observation and a structured questionnaire in a petrochemical plant. Managers at all levels participated in the survey. Data envelopment analysis (DEA), which is a mathematical approach, was used to compute and analyze the role of the factors contributing to adaptive capacity. The results indicated that reporting safety issues played a central role in enhancing adaptive capacity at all management levels. Both middle management and low-level management emphasized the importance of management commitment, whereas top-level management considered flexibility as a vital factor in managing disruptions and reducing accidents. The findings of this study could be useful for managers and other decision-makers to improve safety in process industries.     

When expressions of fake emotions elicit negative reactions: The role of observers' dialectical thinking

Fake displays of emotions are common in social and organizational settings. It is therefore important to understand their consequences. To reconcile mixed previous findings, we develop a model in which the consequences of expressing fake emotions depend on the observers' level of dialectical thinking, a cognitive style characterized by acceptance of inconsistencies. We propose that observers lower, but not higher, on dialectical thinking may infer that interaction partners who fake emotions are untrustworthy and, in turn, react negatively. We found support for our model in 2 studies. In a field fundraising experiment (Study 1), fundraisers who displayed fake (vs. genuine) happiness received smaller monetary donations and elicited lower intentions to volunteer from donors lower, but not higher, on dialectical thinking. In a laboratory negotiation experiment (Study 2), negotiators who displayed fake anger (vs. genuine anger or no emotion) were trusted less and received higher demands from counterparts lower, but not higher, on dialectical thinking. Trust mediated the moderating effect of dialecticism on the relation between fake anger (vs. genuine anger and no emotion) and demands. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings.     

Inherent safety concept based proactive risk reduction strategies: A review

The growing scale and complexity of process industries have brought safety, health, and environmental issues to the forefront. As a result, proactive risk reduction strategies (RRSs) are commonly employed to address these issues by reducing the frequency or mitigating the consequences of potential incidents. Among these strategies, inherent safety, which is a proactive measure of loss prevention and risk management, is considered to be the most effective method. This review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of RRSs for achieving inherency, as well as techniques for evaluating the performance of inherent safety, health, and environmental aspects. Background information is presented, including the development and implementation of the inherently safer process design, as well as the approaches for achieving inherently healthier and environmentally friendlier processes. Subsequently, the execution approaches and practical applications of other RRSs are discussed to highlight the distinctiveness and benefits of inherent safety. Next, this study examined the characteristics of inherency assessment tools (IATs) based on available information at different process stages. Furthermore, the evaluation methods and historical development of IATs are investigated from the perspectives of safety, occupational health, and environmental considerations, followed by a statistical analysis of IATs. It is concluded that the no-chemical hazards-based IATs have not been extensively studied yet, which may improve the safety level of process plants from the perspective of comprehensive inherency risk reduction. As a way forward, future research opportunities are proposed to promote the implementation of greater optimized risk management.