A Statistical Sediment Yield Prediction Model Incorporating the Effect of Fires and Subsequent Storm Events1

Abstract: Alluvial fans are continuously being developed for residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural uses in southern California. Development and alteration of alluvial fans need to consider the possibility of mud and debris flows from upstream mountain watersheds affected by fires. Accurate prediction of sediment yield (or hyper‐concentrated sediment yield) is essential for the design, operation, and maintenance of debris basins to safeguard properly the general populace. This paper presents a model for the prediction of sediment yields that result from a combination of fire and subsequent storm events. The watersheds used in this analysis are located in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. A multiple regression analysis is first utilized to establish a fundamental statistical relationship for sediment yield as a function of relief ratio, drainage area, maximum 1‐h rainfall intensity and fire factor using 45 years of data (1938‐1983). In addition, a method for multi‐sequence sediment yield prediction under fire conditions was developed and calibrated using 17 years of sediment yield, fire, and precipitation data for the period 1984‐2000. After calibration, this model was verified by applying it to provide a prediction of the sediment yields for the 2001‐2002 fire events in southern California. The findings indicate a strong correlation between the estimated and measured sediment yields. The proposed method for sequence sediment yield prediction following fire events can be a useful tool to schedule cleanout operations for debris basins and to develop an emergency response strategy for the southern California region where plentiful sediment supplies exist and frequent fires occur.     

Evaluation of a fire behavior information integration system for southern California chaparral wildlands

Close contact between arid, fire-vulnerable chaparral wildlands and urban development in southern California results in conflagrations that have burned 200,000 ha, destroyed 700 structures, and claimed 16 lives in a single year. In 1972, the U.S. Congress established FIRESCOPE to assist southern California fire and emergency agencies and to develop computer methods for the simulation of wildland fire behavior.     

Nature-based marine tourism in the Gulf of California and Baja California Peninsula: Economic benefits and key species

Ecotourism can incentivize social and environmental benefits through marine conservation, in parallel with efforts to better manage fisheries, coastal development, and other human pressures. In Mexico's Gulf of California and Baja California Peninsula (GCBP), marine ecosystems support tourism activities in many communities, but to date there have been no region-wide studies to estimate their benefits or identify key species. Based on data collected in this study, each year nature-based marine tourism in the GCBP results in 896,000 visits, US$518 million in expenditures and at least 3,575 direct jobs from formal operations. In interviews with operators, over 40 species groups were named as important; sea lions, whale sharks, whales, and marlin were the highest ranked, highlighting the importance of ecosystem-wide health for nature-based tourism sustainability. Local employment and the ability to make economic and conservation goals compatible were noted by operators as significant opportunities provided by nature-based marine tourism; challenges included pollution and declines in ecosystem health, a lack of infrastructure, poor resource management policies, and high operating costs. As nature-based marine tourism expands, a wider transition to true ecotourism, a focus on equitable benefits and collaboration between stakeholders and a cross-scale and ecosystem approach to management will be vital for achieving potential sustainable social, ecological and economic benefits.     

Assessing the price effects of flood hazard disclosure under the California natural hazard disclosure law (AB 1195)

This study uses hedonic analysis to estimate the effects of flood hazard disclosure under the 1998 California Natural Hazard Disclosure Law (AB 1195) on property values throughout California. It finds that the average floodplain home sold for 4.2% less than a comparable non-floodplain home following AB 1195 while before that law there was no significant price differential. The introduction of interaction terms indicates that the magnitude of the price reduction due to AB 1195 varies positively with Hispanic population share. An average floodplain home in a half-Hispanic neighbourhood saw a $12 324 negative capitalization due to AB 1195, while that amount was only $2191 for a neighbourhood with 10% Hispanic residents. Results suggest that, in particular, homebuyers in Hispanic communities are better disclosed to under AB 1195 than they were under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which was the primary policy regulating flood disclosure in California prior to passage of AB 1195.     

Microbiological Monitoring of Marine Recreational Waters in Southern California

An inventory was conducted to assess the number, type, spatial distribution, and costs of microbiological monitoring programs in southern California marine waters from Point Conception to the US/Mexico International Border. The location of each sampling site was determined using global positioning system (GPS), and estimates of geographic coverage were determined using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Twenty-one programs conducted 87,007 tests annually at 576 sites in the study area. The largest number of sites was sampled in Orange County, whereas the largest number of analyses was performed in Los Angeles County because monitoring programs in this area focused on daily monitoring. Fifteen of the 21 programs were managed by National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permitted sewage effluent dischargers who sampled both offshore and shoreline waters and typically tested for three indicator bacteria (total coliform, fecal coliform, and enterococcus). Their combined efforts comprised 82% of all of the microbiological indicator analyses conducted on an annual basis. Five of the remaining monitoring organizations were public health agencies, which typically focus their efforts on testing only total coliforms. Laboratory methodology also varied considerably, with NPDES permittees predominantly utilizing membrane filtration while public health agencies generally used multiple tube fermentation or premanufactured test kits. Nearly three quarters of all the effort expended in southern California occurred along the shoreline as opposed to offshore locations. Two thirds of this shoreline effort was focused on high-use sandy beaches and in proximity to perennial freshwater outlets (storm drains and creeks). Most sampling occurred at a set of fixed sites that were revisited frequently, but only represented about 7% of the total shoreline. We estimated that roughly $3 million is spent annually on monitoring bathing water quality in southern California, exceeding that spent in any other part of the country.     

Coming to the table: collaborative governance and groundwater decision-making in coastal California

Collaborative governance is on the rise in the United States. This management approach brings together state and non-state actors for environmental decision-making, and it is frequently used in California for decisions regarding local groundwater management. This study examines groundwater decision-making groups and practices in a central California coastal community to understand whether groups meet specific collaborative governance criteria and whether and why certain subsets of the population are excluded from groundwater decision-making practices. It also identifies actions for better group inclusion. We find that small farmers, the Hispanic/Latino community, and the general public are often excluded from groundwater decision-making groups and practices due to unawareness, mistrust, and insufficient resources. Education and awareness as well as incentives could help increase inclusion. This study provides insights into more equitable groundwater decision-making groups and practices, and also calls for more critical examination of the current stakeholder approach to decision-making.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from wastewater treatment and water reclamation plants in southern California

Nitrous oxide (N?O) is a long-lived and potent greenhouse gas produced during microbial nitrification and denitrification. In developed countries, centralized water reclamation plants often use these processes for N removal before effluent is used for irrigation or discharged to surface water, thus making this treatment a potentially large source of N?O in urban areas. In the arid but densely populated southwestern United States, water reclamation for irrigation is an important alternative to long-distance water importation. We measured N?O concentrations and fluxes from several wastewater treatment processes in urban southern California. We found that N removal during water reclamation may lead to in situ N?O emission rates that are three or more times greater than traditional treatment processes (C oxidation only). In the water reclamation plants tested, N?O production was a greater percentage of total N removed (1.2%) than traditional treatment processes (C oxidation only) (0.4%). We also measured stable isotope ratios (δN and δO) of emitted N?O and found distinct δN signatures of N?O from denitrification (0.0 ± 4.0 ‰) and nitrification reactors (-24.5 ± 2.2 ‰), respectively. These isotope data confirm that both nitrification and denitrification contribute to N?O emissions within the same treatment plant. Our estimates indicate that N?O emissions from biological N removal for water reclamation may be several orders of magnitude greater than N?O emissions from agricultural activities in highly urbanized southern California. Our results suggest that wastewater treatment that includes biological nitrogen removal can significantly increase urban N?O emissions.     

A Quantitative Tool for Assessing the Integrity of Southern Coastal California Streams

We developed a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biological integrity (B-IBI) for the semiarid and populous southern California coastal region. Potential reference sites were screened from a pool of 275 sites, first with quantitative GIS landscape analysis at several spatial scales and then with local condition assessments (in-stream and riparian) that quantified stressors acting on study reaches. We screened 61 candidate metrics for inclusion in the B-IBI based on three criteria: sufficient range for scoring, responsiveness to watershed and reach-scale disturbance gradients, and minimal correlation with other responsive metrics. Final metrics included: percent collector-gatherer + collector-filterer individuals, percent noninsect taxa, percent tolerant taxa, Coleoptera richness, predator richness, percent intolerant individuals, and EPT richness. Three metrics had lower scores in chaparral reference sites than in mountain reference sites and were scored on separate scales in the B-IBI. Metrics were scored and assembled into a composite B-IBI, which was then divided into five roughly equal condition categories. PCA analysis was used to demonstrate that the B-IBI was sensitive to composite stressor gradients; we also confirmed that the B-IBI scores were not correlated with elevation, season, or watershed area. Application of the B-IBI to an independent validation dataset (69 sites) produced results congruent with the development dataset and a separate repeatability study at four sites in the region confirmed that the B-IBI scoring is precise. The SoCal B-IBI is an effective tool with strong performance characteristics and provides a practical means of evaluating biotic condition of streams in southern coastal California.     

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an “historic” scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an “existing” scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a “demographic futures” scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region’s changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.     

The role of population projections in environmental management

California and other regions in the United States are becoming more populated and ethnically diverse, and thus, ecological impacts on the wildland–urban interface are a significant policy concern. In a socioeconomic assessment focused on the geographic regions surrounding four national forests in southern California, population projections are being formulated to assist in the update of forest plans. In southern California, the projected trend of explosive population growth combined with increased ethnic and racial diversity indicates four challenges for environmental management. First, patterns of recreation use on wildlands are likely to change, and management of these areas will have to address new needs. Second, as land-management agencies face changing constituencies, new methods of soliciting public involvement from ethnic and racial groups will be necessary. Third, growth in the region is likely to encroach upon wildland areas, affecting water, air, open space, and endangered species. Fourth, in order to address all these concerns in a climate of declining budgets, resource management agencies need to strengthen collaborative relationships with other agencies in the region. How environmental managers approach these changes has widespread implications for the ecological sustainability of forests in southern California.     

Wind energy development in California,USA

Windfarms have been developed rapidly in California in the last few years. The impetus has been a legislated goal to generate 10% of California's electricity by windpower by the year 2000, and generous state and federal tax incentives. Windpower is promoted as environmentally benign, which it is in traditional uses. The California program, however, is not traditional: it calls for centralized development of a magnitude sufficient to offset significant amounts of fossil fuels now used to generate electricity.Centralized windfarm development, as exemplified by the Altamont Pass, Tehachapi Mountains, and San Gorgonio Pass developments, involves major road building projects in erosion-sensitive terrain, effective closure of public lands, and other detrimental effects. A windfarm consisting of 200 turbines with 17-m rotors located in steep terrain 16 km from an existing corridor might occupy 235 ha and physically disturb 86 ha. With average annual wind speeds of 22.5 km/h, the farm would generate about 10×10⁶ kWh/year at present levels of capacity. This annual production would offset 1% of one day's consumption of oil in California. To supply 10% of the state's electricity (at 1984 production rates) would require about 600,000 turbines of the type in common use today and would occupy more than 685,000 ha. It is likely that indirect effects would be felt in much larger areas and would include increased air and water pollution resulting from accelerated erosion, degradation of habitat of domestic and wild animals, damage to archaeological sites, and reduction of scenic quality of now-remote areas of the state.     

Inventory of Ocean Monitoring in the Southern California Bight

Monitoring of the ocean environment in southern California, USA, has been conducted by a diverse array of public and private organizations with different motivations, working on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To create a basis from which to integrate information from these diverse programs, we conducted an inventory of ocean monitoring activities in the Southern California Bight to address the following questions: (1) How much money is being expended annually on marine monitoring programs? (2) Which organizations are conducting the most monitoring? (3) How are resources allocated among the different types of monitoring programs? This inventory focused on programs existing, or those expected to be in existence, for at least 10 years and that were active at any time between 1994 and 1997. For each program identified for inclusion in this study, information was collected on the number of sites, sampling intensity, parameters measured, and methods used. Levels of effort were translated into cost estimates based upon a market survey of local consulting firms. One hundred fourteen marine monitoring programs, conducted by 65 organizations and costing US $31 million annually, were identified. Most of the effort (81 programs, 65% of samples, 70% of costs) was expended by ocean dischargers as part of their compliance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements. Federal programs (11 programs, 25% of samples, 10% of total expenditures) expended more than state or local government programs. More than one quarter of monitoring expenditures were conducted to measure concentrations and mass of effluent inputs to the ocean. The largest effort expended on receiving water monitoring was for measuring bacteria, followed by sediments, fish/shellfish, water quality, and intertidal habitats. The large level of expenditures by individual agencies has presented opportunities for integrating small, site-specific ocean monitoring programs into regional- and national-scale monitoring and assessment programs.     

Sediment Contaminant Chemistry and Toxicity of Freshwater Urban Wetlands in Southern California1

Brown, Jeffrey S., Martha Sutula, Chris Stransky, John Rudolph, and Earl Byron, 2010. Sediment Contaminant Chemistry and Toxicity of Freshwater Urban Wetlands in Southern California. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):367-384. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00407.x Abstract: Wetlands provide many critical functions in urban ecosystems, including habitat for wetland-dependent fauna and enhancement of water quality. Interest in restoring or creating wetlands to enhance these functions is increasing due to the scale and extent of wetland loss and water quality problems associated with urbanization. One of the most pressing questions associated with urban wetland restoration is the extent to which urban wetlands tend to concentrate contaminants, and if so, whether an associated risk to wildlife exists. The goal of this study was to better understand these potential risks, and the associated tradeoffs with using wetlands to treat urban runoff. Sediment toxicity, contaminant chemistry, and macroinvertebrate (MI) community metrics were measured in 21 southern California wetlands that receive urban runoff as their primary water source. MI organisms in 18 of the 21 urban wetlands examined were considered to be at risk due to sediment contaminant concentrations and toxicity. Most of the sites were either toxic to the amphipod Hyalella azteca, exceeded a sediment quality guideline, or both. Sediment chemistry and toxicity identification evaluation studies suggest that pyrethroid pesticides may have been responsible for much of the toxicity documented in this study. The mean Probable Effects Concentration quotient (an index of degree of sediment contamination) was found to negatively correlate with MI diversity in these wetlands suggesting that toxicity was affecting organisms at the base of the food chain in these wetlands.     

Inventory of ocean monitoring in the Southern California Bight

Monitoring of the ocean environment in southern California, USA, has been conducted by a diverse array of public and private organizations with different motivations, working on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To create a basis from which to integrate information from these diverse programs, we conducted an inventory of ocean monitoring activities in the Southern California Bight to address the following questions: (1) How much money is being expended annually on marine monitoring programs? (2) Which organizations are conducting the most monitoring? (3) How are resources allocated among the different types of monitoring programs? This inventory focused on programs existing, or those expected to be in existence, for at least 10 years and that were active at any time between 1994 and 1997. For each program identified for inclusion in this study, information was collected on the number of sites, sampling intensity, parameters measured, and methods used. Levels of effort were translated into cost estimates based upon a market survey of local consulting firms. One hundred fourteen marine monitoring programs, conducted by 65 organizations and costing US $31 million annually, were identified. Most of the effort (81 programs, 65% of samples, 70% of costs) was expended by ocean dischargers as part of their compliance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements. Federal programs (11 programs, 25% of samples, 10% of total expenditures) expended more than state or local government programs. More than one quarter of monitoring expenditures were conducted to measure concentrations and mass of effluent inputs to the ocean. The largest effort expended on receiving water monitoring was for measuring bacteria, followed by sediments, fish/shellfish, water quality, and intertidal habitats. The large level of expenditures by individual agencies has presented opportunities for integrating small, site-specific ocean monitoring programs into regional- and national-scale monitoring and assessment programs.     

Statistical Evaluation of Variables Affecting Occurrence of Hydrocarbons in Aquifers Used for Public Supply,California

The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co‐occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co‐occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.     

Phosphorus fractionation in manure from swine fed traditional and low-phytate corn diets

Traditional corn (Zea mays L.) (TC), the primary grain used in swine (Sus scrofa) diets, stores a majority of its P as phytate, which is largely unavailable for digestion by nonruminant animals. Low-phytate corn (LPC) contains similar amounts of total P but a smaller percentage of P as phytate. When fed to swine, LPC increases P utilization and reduces P content of manure. While differences in P content between manure from animals fed TC and LPC diets have been documented, solubility and lability of manure P have not been compared. Manure P was characterized in manure from swine fed either LPC or TC diets in 2000 and 2001. Total P was lower (20 vs. 34 g kg(-1)) and N to P ratio was higher (4.5 vs. 3.3) in LPC manure than in TC manure. Manures were sequentially extracted with deionized water, 0.5 M NaHCO3, 0.1 M NaOH, and 1.0 M HCl. Extracts were analyzed for inorganic and total P. Most P (approximately 80%) in the extracts was in the inorganic form. Concentration of P in the water-extractable fraction was lower for LPC manure (10.2 g kg(-1) in 2000 and 9.7 g kg(-1) in 2001) than for TC manure (13.6 g kg(-1) in 2000 and 17.0 g kg(-1) in 2001). Percentage of total P in each extract was in the order of: H2O (60%), HCl (22%), NaHCO3 (12%), NaOH (8%), and residue (<1%). Total P and distribution of P in extracts indicates swine are able to utilize more P contained in LPC feed but the composition of P excreted in LPC manure is similar to TC manure. Solubility, crop availability, and lability of P in LPC manure should be similar to that of TC manure.     

Reactivity of litter leachates from California oak woodlands in the formation of disinfection by-products

Litter materials from forested watersheds can be a significant source of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to surface waters that can contribute to the formation of carcinogenic disinfection by-products (DBPs) during drinking-water chlorination. This study characterized the reactivity of DOM from litter leachates of representative vegetation in oak woodlands, a major plant community in the Foothill Region of California. Leachates from fresh and decomposed litter (duff) from two oak species, pine, and annual grasses were collected for an entire rainy season to evaluate their reactivity to form DBPs on chlorination. Relationships among specific ultraviolet absorbance (SΔUVA), fluorescence index (FI), specific differential ultraviolet absorbance (SΔUVA), specific chlorine demand (SCD), and the dissolved organic carbon:dissolved organic nitrogen (DOC:DON) ratio to the specific DBP formation potential (SDBP-FP) were examined. The DOM derived from litter materials had considerable reactivity in forming trihalomethanes (THMs) (1.80-3.49 mmol mol), haloacetic acid (HAAs) (1.62-2.76 mmol mol(-1)), haloacetonitriles (HANs) (0.12-0.37 mmol mol(-1)), and chloral hydrate (CHD) (0.16-0.28 mmol mol). These values are comparable to other identified watershed sources of DBP precursors reported for the California Delta, such as wetlands and organic soils. Vegetation type and litter decomposition stage (fresh litter versus 1-5 yr-old duff) were key factors that determined characteristics of DOM and their reactivity to form DBPs. Pine litter had significantly lower specific THM formation potential compared with oak and grass, and decomposed duff had a greater DON content, which is a precursor of HANs and other nitrogenous DBPs. The SΔUVA and SDBP-FP were temporally variable and dependent on vegetation type, degree of decomposition, and environmental conditions. Among the optical properties of DOM, SΔUVA was the only parameter that was consistently correlated with SDBP-FP.