Impact of Climate Change on Date Production in Tunisia

Around the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one of the major phenomena affecting agriculture. Therefore, the mode of production and crop management will have to change radically. Our objective in this article is to examine the long-run effects of climate change on date production in Tunisia using panel cointegration covering the period from 1980 to 2014 in 24 regions. The climate of Tunisia differs in our study because we find a Saharan climate in the south and a European climate in the north. The central regions are characterized by a Mediterranean climate. Our empirical results show that the effects of climate and weather variability on date production must be considered a serious threat in Tunisia. In addition, we estimate relatively negative and variable long-run effects of temperature increase and rainfall shortages across regions on date output over the last three decades.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Mammal Diversity in Canada

Current large-scale mammalian diversity patterns in Canada can be accurately explained using various measurements of heat energy. Unfortunately, climatic change is predicted to alter the fundamental climatic basis for contemporary diversity gradients, with the expected consequence that much of the Canadian biota will need to migrate in order to remain within climatically suitable regions. We make predictions regarding future mammal diversity patterns in Canada, and therefore provide a preliminary indication of where management intervention should be directed in order to conserve mammal diversity as climate changes. We also examine the current distributions of individual mammal species in Canada in order to determine which taxa cannot migrate farther north because of the Arctic Ocean barrier. Of the 25 species that fall into this category, we examine the predicted loss of habitat in one keystone species – Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, the collared lemming – and find that this taxon is likely to lose approximately 60% of its habitat with unpredictable but likely detrimental consequences for the arctic biota. We discuss the implications of our findings briefly.     

Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources

It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m³ in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.     

Meat,Dairy and Climate Change: Assessing the Long-Term Mitigation Potential of Alternative Agri-Food Consumption Patterns in Canada

We use a newly developed model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess the climate change mitigation potential of different agri-food consumption patterns in Canada. For this, our model has been extended by disaggregating the agricultural demand sector into individual agri-food demands to allow for a more in-depth analysis. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have constructed four different agri-food scenarios to assess the viability of reducing Canadian meat and dairy consumption in order to diminish Canada’s agricultural sector energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our policy scenarios progressively restrict the consumption of different meat and dairy agricultural products until the year 2030. Our results suggest that the implementation of a meat and dairy consumption reduction policy would lead to a 10 to 40 % reduction in agricultural GHG emissions, depending on the severity of the scenario. This translates to a 1 to 3 % decrease in total Canadian GHG emissions by the year 2030. Besides these environmental benefits, health benefits associated with a reduction in meat and dairy consumption (as inferred from other studies) are presented as an additional source of motivation for implementing such a policy in Canada.     

Sharing the geo-Referenced Results of Climate Change Impact Research

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies.     

The Impact of Accidental Deviation by Natural Disaster-Prone Countries on Renegotiation-Proof Climate Change Agreements

This study provides a new framework for international environmental agreements (IEAs), which include punishment exceptions for accidental deviation, using repeated games. We consider that deviation from an agreement can occur accidentally because of phenomena such as natural disasters, even if the agreement is sustained as a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. If an IEA signatory deviates accidentally, it fails to achieve its emission abatement target. In the repeated game, a cooperative relationship among signatories is sustained by a strategy that prescribes rules of cooperation and punishment for deviation. We present a new strategy, called Regional Cooperative, which integrates accidental deviations into an IEA. Our model reveals that punishing countries tend to revoke the punishment of deviators and return to cooperation if an accidental deviator increases its abatement volume. That is, the abatement efforts of the accidental deviator can lead to renegotiation. The Regional Cooperative strategy motivates the accidental deviator to try to engage in abatement and the punishing countries to restart cooperation by renegotiation. We conclude that social welfare loss by punishment is prevented through renegotiation in cases of accidental deviation.     

Monitoring quantity and characteristics of municipal solid waste in Dhaka City

A reliable estimate of the quantity of solid waste generation in the city is very important for proper solid waste planning and management. However, reported estimates of solid waste generation vary widely and lead to questionability. The reported values have been derived on the assumption of demography, standard rate of waste generation by households, density values, number of trucks engaged for waste transportation and monitoring of truck movement at dump sites, etc. This diverse nature of the available data and the question of accuracy necessitate a rigorous study that has tried to document the waste quantity in the recently formulated master plan of Dhaka City. The socio-economic parameters, behavioral characteristics, generation sources, seasonality, and per capita growth rate are considered in estimating the waste quantity along with its future projections. The findings from the estimation of waste quantities state that seasonal differences in the municipal solid waste stream are not substantial. The most seasonably variable material in the municipal solid waste stream is food waste. Residential waste is relatively homogeneous. Although there are some differences in waste generation depending on demographic and other local factors, most households dispose of essentially similar types of wastes. Variation occurs in waste composition dependent upon income levels and category of sources. Variation also occurs based upon the extent of source reduction and recycling opportunities. As opportunities exist to recycle wastes, the recycling facilities might have to grow at a similar pace to the generation of waste. Physical and chemical characteristics of solid waste are important to implement the waste disposal and management plan for the selection of resource and energy recovery potentials. A number of studies have been conducted to determine the composition of wastes including moisture content and calorific value. The data show that the moisture content in city waste is significantly higher and the calorific value is much lower, which determines the viability of composting or anaerobic digestions rather than waste combustion.     

浅谈阿图什市近3年干旱气候与沙尘暴的影响及其对策

为了研究阿图什市干旱气候的变化和沙尘暴频发的原因,利用阿图什市2005-2007年连续3年的降水量、湿度、PM10浓度、风速、温度与沙尘暴的频发次数相关的气象数据资料,提出改变干旱气候及减少沙尘暴频发的建议,为阿图什市发展生态城市建设提供科学依据。     

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Canada's National Park System

To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated forCanada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonaltemperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling andAnalysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems andpeople. Important, widespread changes relate to marine andfreshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern andupward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combinedEast coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosionand deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic upliftnegates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individualparks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migratelakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroythe fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. Forexample: we could not form conclusions about glacial massbalance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for theEast Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.     

变压器噪声对居民室内噪声影响分析和控制

变压器噪声对居民室内的影响,往往是通过建筑物固体传声和结构辐射噪声所引起,采取以隔振为主要控制手段的噪声治理措施,可以取得较为满意的降噪效果。     

Climate Change: Use of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes for Climate Data in Presence of a Change-Point

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - In this study, non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) are used to analyze climate data. The data were collected over a certain period time and consist of...     

Factors affecting waste generation: a study in a waste management program in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Information on waste generation, socioeconomic characteristics, and willingness of the households to separate waste was obtained from interviews with 402 respondents in Dhaka city. Ordinary least square regression was used to determine the dominant factors that might influence the waste generation of the households. The results showed that the waste generation of the households in Dhaka city was significantly affected by household size, income, concern about the environment, and willingness to separate the waste. These factors are necessary to effectively improve waste management, growth and performance, as well as to reduce the environmental degradation of the household waste.     

Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.     

The Value of Better Information on Technology R&D Programs in Response to Climate Change

Expert elicitations are a promising method for determining how R&D investments are likely to have an impact on technological advance in climate change energy technologies. But, expert elicitations are time consuming and resource intensive. Thus, we investigate the value of the information gained in expert elicitations. More specifically, given baseline elicitations from one study, we estimate the expected value of better information (EVBI) from revisiting and improving these assessments. We find that the EVBI is very large in comparison with the cost of performing expert elicitations. We also find that EVBI is higher on technologies with larger budgets and with net values that are not too high or too low.     

石河子市环境空气质量变化趋势浅析

根据石河子市1982-2001年空气中SO2、NOx、TSP和降尘等大气污染物浓度的变化情况,分析其空气质量变化的原因和条件,并用Spearman秩相关系数法对其变化趋势进行了分析,得出石河子市环境空气质量有所好转,SO2、NOx、TSP、降尘浓度均有不同程度的下降。并对干旱地区的城市化建设、污染控制及改善环境质量作了有益的探讨。     

机动车排气对常州市区大气环境的影响

为弄清机动车排气对常州市区大气环境的影响,该市环境监测中心站于１９９８年夏季选择了具有代表性的７个交通路段和３个交通路口布点对机动车排气中的主要污染物ＣＯ、ＮＯｘ,Ｐｂ等进行监测,结果表明,交通路段和交通路口大气中Ｐｂ污染较轻;针对机动车排气的污染状况,提出了防治建议。     

Towards a Formal Framework of Vulnerability to Climate Change

There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” in the climate change scientific community. Recent research has identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework of vulnerability is a prerequisite for computational approaches to its assessment. This paper presents an attempt at developing such a formal framework. We see vulnerability as a relative concept in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (1) the entity that is vulnerable, (2) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and (3) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus. We relate the resulting framework to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conceptualisation of vulnerability and two recent vulnerability studies. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Gerhard Petschel-Held, whose pioneering work on syndromes of global change has been a source of inspiration for us and for others across various schools of thought on vulnerability.