参与农业技术培训能否促进农户实施绿色生产行为?——基于家庭禀赋视角的ESR模型分析

农业技术培训对农户实施绿色生产行为的影响是推进农村生态环境治理关注的重要问题.基于农户家庭禀赋影响其参与农业技术培训,进而导致其绿色生产行为实施差异的分析思路,利用内生转换回归(ESR)模型和来自湖北省的1063份农户微观调查数据,在构建反事实场景和考虑样本选择偏差的基础上,考察了参与和未参与农业技术培训两种情形下农户实施绿色生产行为的差异.结果表明:(1)参与农业技术培训农户的绿色生产行为实施程度显著高于未参与农业技术培训的农户,且平均处理效应表明,参与农业技术培训可使预期的农户绿色生产行为实施程度提高40.13％;(2)参与农业技术培训对不同类型绿色生产行为的处理效应由大到小依次为化肥减施、节水灌溉、农药减施、农膜回收和秸秆综合利用;(3)无论是否参与农业技术培训,家庭禀赋对农户实施绿色生产行为均有显著影响,但不同类型的家庭禀赋对参与和未参与农业技术培训农户的影响存在差异.此外,家庭禀赋也是影响农户参与农业技术培训的重要因素.政府应积极拓宽农业技术推广渠道,加快转变技术推广方式,兼顾"农业生产"和"生态环境保护"两者,进一步开展环境友好型农业技术培训.     

Life cycle sustainability assessments (LCSA) of four disposal scenarios for used polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles in Mauritius

Improper disposal of post-consumer Polythylene Terephthalate (PET) bottles constitutes an eyesore to the environmental landscape and gives rise to numerous environmental and health-related nuisances. These problems impact negatively on the flourishing tourism industry in Mauritius. The present study was therefore undertaken to determine a sustainable disposal method among four selected disposal alternatives of post-consumer PET bottles in Mauritius. The disposal scenarios investigated were: 100 % landfilling (scenario 1); 75 % incineration with energy recovery and 25 % landfilling (scenario 2); 40 % flake production (partial recycling) and 60 % landfilling (scenario 3); and 75 % flake production and 25 % landfilling (scenario 4). Environmental impacts of the disposal alternatives were determined using ISO standardized life cycle assessment (LCA) and the SimaPro 7.1 software. Cost-effectiveness was determined using Life cycle costing (LCC) as described by the recent Code of Practice on LCC. An excel-based model was constructed to calculate the various costs. Social impacts were evaluated using Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) based on the UNEP/SETAC Guidelines for Social Life Cycle Assessment. For this purpose, a new and simple social life cycle impact assessment method was developed for aggregating inventory results. Finally, Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) was conducted to conclude the sustainable disposal route of post-consumer PET bottles in Mauritius. The methodology proposed to work out LCSA was to combine the three assessment tools: LCA, LCC and S-LCA using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The results indicated that scenario 4 was the sustainable disposal method of post-consumer PET bottles. Scenario 1 was found to be the worst scenario.     

工业废水排放的影响因素量化分析

工业废水排放量的大小受工业发展水平、产业结构、产品结构、技术工艺及设备水平、管理政策、环境法规等多因素的综合影响。选取长江三角洲典型地区的主要污染排放指标,重点分析工业经济规模、工业行业结构、工业技术进步以及环境治理投资等因素与工业水污染排放之间的相互关系。研究结果表明：随着长江三角洲地区产业结构的调整、工业技术进步、工业废水达标排放政策的实施,工业规模的扩大并没有引起工业废水的显著增加。从制造业结构看,有些行业的废水排放量对其结构调整比较敏感; 相反,有些行业的废水排放量对其结构的调整不敏感。工业技术进步和环境治理投资与工业废水排放量呈现负相关,说明工业技术进步、环境污染治理对于减少工业水污染排放起重要作用。     

火法炼铜能耗与碳排放情景分析——基于生命周期的视角

以火法炼铜全生命周期过程为研究对象,采用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,定量评价不同熔炼工艺生产铜过程的能源消耗和温室气体排放,并应用情景分析法,对2020年我国火法炼铜不同工艺技术结构下的能耗与碳排放强度进行比较,旨在为铜冶炼行业的结构调整与优化升级提供决策支持。结果表明,基于鼓风熔炼、闪速熔炼和熔池熔炼工艺的火法生产铜过程的能耗分别为147.80×103,96.68×103,104.20×103MJ;其碳排放强度分别为15.32×103,8.99×103,10.01×103kg CO2当量。设定的4种情景的能耗分别为111.60×103,103.37×103,101.19×103,99.69×103MJ;其碳排放强度分别为10.87×103,9.87×103,9.60×103,9.40×103kg CO2当量。由此可知,传统工艺鼓风炉熔炼较闪速熔炼及熔池熔炼的能耗更高,且导致了更多的温室气体排放。因此,大力发展闪速熔炼及熔池熔炼技术对降低铜生命周期的能耗及碳排放具有重要意义,彻底淘汰传统熔炼工艺,推广先进熔炼技术是减少火法铜生产环境影响的迫切任务。     

中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

Combating climate change calls for a global technological cooperation system built on the concept of ecological civilization

Climate change has been considered as the most paramount global environmental problem and the biggest externality throughout the history of human development. Accordingly, the world is facing unprecedented technological innovation and collaborative demands to deal with climate change. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, a long-term vision of technology development and transfer implementation was proposed, and policy and financial support for technological innovation in the area of climate change was advocated. These terms aim to enable developing countries to acquire the necessary technology in the early stage of the technology cycle to address climate change challenge. However, the traditional technological innovation and cooperation mode based on industrial civilization can hardly meet the technical demands of global climate protection. To ensure the continuous development and deployment of technology in a required scale and pace, a new global technical cooperation system is proposed to develop based on the philosophy of ecological civilization. The core contents of this system are supposed be as follows: to implement all-win cooperation targets, adhering to cooperation principles of Eco-man, adopt cooperation content that reflects synergy, pursue cooperation based on mutual trust, encourage participation of multiple actors, and promote sharing of cooperative outputs.     

A design for EoL approach and metrics to favour closed-loop scenarios for products

Recently, environmentally conscious design and extended producer responsibility have become key aspects for companies that need to develop products that are sustainable along their whole life cycle. Design for End of Life (EoL) is a strategy that aims to reduce landfill waste through the implementation of closed-loop product life cycles. It is important to consider disassembly and EoL scenario management as early as the design phase. For these reasons, this paper presents an approach to help designers in the evaluation and subsequent improvement in product EoL performance. The method is based on four innovative EoL indices that compare different EoL scenarios for each product component. In this way, the designer can modify the product structure or the liaisons to maximise the reuse and remanufacture of components as well as material recycling. The presented case studies confirm the validity of the approach in helping designers during the redesign phase of goods and products to reduce the quantity of materials and industrial wastes sent to landfill.     

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Modelling and optimisation of a product recovery network

An appropriate logistics network is an important element of the infrastructure of any product recovery company. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) constitute a major fraction of the product recovery industry with a different business objective and scale of operation from those of original equipment manufacturers. This paper addresses the network design issues for SMEs involved in product recovery activities. A mathematical formulation is presented in an SME context and a subsequent simulation model is developed. A genetic algorithm approach is presented for optimising the network for a single product scenario.     

“水十条”对工业水污染强度的影响及其机制

《水污染防治行动计划》(简称“水十条”)是国家为切实加大水污染防治力度,保障国家水安全而制定的法规。为检验“水十条”的政策影响效应,文章利用2012—2017年全国269个地级市的数据,结合工业化程度、对外开放水平、技术进步、人口规模、水资源禀赋等控制变量,运用双重差分法对“水十条”政策实施是否有助于减轻工业水污染强度进行研究。研究发现:我国中西部地区由于产业结构、技术水平等原因,工业水污染强度显著高于其他地区,“水十条”政策实施显著降低了中西部地区工业水污染强度。通过改变政策实施时间、剔除中心城市、增加控制变量以及剔除严重污染等方式进行重新回归,检验结果依然具有较强稳健性。进一步分析中,文章研究了产业结构以及技术创新的作用机制,发现第一产业比重显著降低,而第三产业显著提升,产业结构得到优化,并且技术创新效应显著加强。结果表明,产业结构升级以及技术创新均为“水十条”政策改善工业水污染强度的有效途径。在空间异质性方面,在环境规制强度较高的地区“水十条”政策对工业水污染强度的影响相对较小;而在环境规制强度较低地区却呈现出较强的抑制作用,主要原因在于环境规制强度高的地区水污染情况原本较好,因此污染强度降低幅度较小。因此,文章认为“水十条”政策能够显著改善工业水污染强度,并且加上环境规制、技术创新以及产业结构优化等手段的辅助能够更好地发挥政策效果。文章的发现为中国水污染防治行动提供了有益的政策启示。     

Climate change impact on the PAH photodegradation in soils: Characterization and metabolites identification

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are airborne pollutants that are deposited on soils. As climate change is already altering temperature and solar radiation, the global warming is suggested to impact the environmental fate of PAHs. This study was aimed at evaluating the effect of climate change on the PAH photodegradation in soils. Samples of Mediterranean soils were subjected to different temperature and light radiation conditions in a climate chamber. Two climate scenarios were considered according to IPCC projections: 1) a base (B) scenario, being temperature and light intensity 20 °C and 9.6 W/m², respectively, and 2) a climate change (CC) scenario, working at 24 °C and 24 W/m², respectively. As expected, low molecular weight PAHs were rapidly volatilized when increasing both temperature and light intensity. In contrast, medium and high molecular weight PAHs presented different photodegradation rates in soils with different texture, which was likely related to the amount of photocatalysts contained in both soils. In turn, the hydrogen isotopic composition of some of the PAHs under study was also investigated to verify any degradation process. Hydrogen isotopes confirmed that benzo(a)pyrene is degraded in both B and CC scenarios, not only under light but also in the darkness, revealing unknown degradation processes occurring when light is lacking. Potential generation pathways of PAH photodegradation by-products were also suggested, being a higher number of metabolites formed in the CC scenario. Consequently, in a more or less near future, although humans might be less exposed to PAHs, they could be exposed to new metabolites of these pollutants, which might be even more toxic.     

The environmental impact assessment of wheat and barley production by using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology

This study was conducted to assess the impact of cereals (wheat and barley) production on environment under rainfed and irrigated farming systems in northeast of Iran. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used as a methodology to assess all environmental impacts of cereal grain production through accounting and appraising the resource consumption and emissions. The functional unit considered in this study was one ton grain yield production under different rates of nitrogen application. All associated impacts of different range of N fertilizer application were evaluated on the basis of the functional unit. In this study, three major impact categories considered were climate change, acidification, and eutrophication. In order to prepare final evaluation of all impacts on environment, the EcoX was determined. Results represented that, under low consumption of N fertilizer, the environmental impacts of both rainfed farming systems of wheat and barley was less than irrigated farming systems. Considering grain yield as response factor to different fertilizer application level, irrigated farming systems of wheat and barley with the range of 160–180 and?>220 (Kg?N?ha^?1) showed the maximum impact on environment. It seems LCA is an appropriate method to quantify the impact of utilized agricultural inputs and different managements on environment.     

中国城乡居民消费隐含的碳排放对比分析

可持续消费研究是产业生态学的重要内容.居民消费包括城镇居民消费和农村居民消费.本研究首先采用综合生命周期分析方法(Hybrid LCA)核算 1997、2002和2007三年的居民消费隐含的二氧化碳排放总量,发现2007年的碳排放量已经达到18.01亿吨.城镇居民消费已经成为居民消费的主要组成部分,到2007年城镇居民消费的碳排放量达到总量的76.44%.采用结构分解分析(SDA)方法对影响居民消费碳排放量变化的五项驱动因素进行分析,发现排放强度因子是"减缓"居民消费碳排放量增加的主要力量,而人均消费水平因子是推动碳排放量迅速增加的主要因素.同时,发现居民消费结构的变迁对碳排量的增加有一定促进作用.在未来应该通过持续降低能耗强度和加快研发低碳能源技术,来持续降低碳排放强度.另外,要充分挖掘居民生活方式和消费行为的减排潜力,引导消费结构,提倡适度消费,促进居民消费模式向低碳方向转变.     

Impact Factors of Energy Productivity in China: An Empirical Analysis

This article developed a decomposition model of energy productivity on the basis of the economic growth model. Four factors were considered which may influence China’s energy productivity according to this model: technology improvement, resource allocation structure, industrial structure and institute arrangement. Then, an econometric model was employed to test the four factors empirically on the basis of China’s statistical data from 1978 to 2004. Results indicated that capital deepening con- tributes the most (207%) to energy efficiency improvement, and impact from labor forces (13%) is the weakest one in resource factor; industrial structure (7%) and institute innovation (9.5%) positively improve the energy productivity.     

贵阳市环境经济系统协调发展策略分析

环境与经济的协调发展已成为未来城市发展的必然要求,在西部大开发战略实施的当前形势下,如何实现贵阳市环境—经济系统协调发展是当地拟研究的一个重要问题。阐述了贵阳市环境经济系统的特征,在引入和结合系统动力学、情景分析和协调度分析三种方法的基础上,提出了贵阳市协调发展策略分析的研究框架。遵循框架中的思路和方法,构建了贵阳市环境经济系统仿真模拟模型,围绕GDP增长、资源消耗、环境污染、环保设施建设方面进行了5个情景的情景预测和协调度分析,通过反复模拟、反馈、调整及分析,识别出情景5为较理想的一种发展模式,总结提出了相应的基本策略方向。研究结果是贵阳市未来发展的科学参考和决策支持。     

应对气候变化需以生态文明理念构建全球技术合作体系

气候变化是人类发展过程中遇到的最大全球性环境问题,也是最大的外部性问题。IPCC报告显示,实现本世纪末温度升高不超过2度的目标,需要全球经济和能源系统深度的低碳转型,并在本世纪下半叶达到温室气体的净零排放。应对气候变化因此面临着前所未有的技术创新与合作需求。2015年底达成的《巴黎协定》提出了落实技术开发与转让的长期愿景,主张对气候变化领域的技术创新给予政策和资金支持,使发展中国家在技术周期的早期阶段就能够获取必要的技术,从而为实现全球应对气候变化提供保障。然而,基于工业文明的传统技术创新与合作模式难以满足保护全球气候的技术需求。减缓与适应技术是气候变化挑战下全球命运共同体的公共财富。为保证其足够的供应,必须超越追求私人利益最大化的狭隘,基于生态文明理念构建全球应对气候变化的新型技术合作体系。其核心是:实现多赢的合作目标,遵循"生态人"的合作原则,体现协同的合作内容,基于互信的合作形式,鼓励多元主体的参与,促进合作成果的分享。中国作为新兴发展中大国,对应对气候变化技术国际合作有多元的利益需求。为有效落实《巴黎协定》,亟需以加速国际合作为契机,积极谋划中国应对气候变化技术对外合作的总体方略和具体行动,有针对性地制定与发达国家、其他发展中国家及欠发达国家间优势互补的合作计划,探索并引导"南-北-南"三方技术合作等新形式。     

贵阳市循环经济发展度量的研究

循环经济指标体系旨在度量区域循环经济发展的系统目标和工作进展。该文在“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”（DPSR）框架下设计度量区域循环经济发展的指标体系，含有状态指标、压力指标、驱动力指标、响应指标以及分离指标共5类指标集合。其中，分离指标集合作为循环经济的特征指标来表征经济发展与资源投入和污染产出分离的效果和趋势。考察贵阳循环经济规划案例表明：贵阳如果走循环经济的发展道路，可以转变经济增长方式，实现经济增长与资源投入和污染产出的分离。     

气候工程对中国不同等级降雨结构的可能影响

气候工程作为人类快速有效给地球降温的手段,在应对气候变化的国际谈判中越来成为各界讨论的焦点话题之一。为诊断当前GeoMIP设定的当量下,气候工程不同实施阶段是否对中国降雨结构产生影响。依据中国气象局中央气象台的日降雨强度划分标准,基于BNU~ESM模式的太阳辐射管理气候工程G4实验和RCP4.5情景下非气候工程的0.5°×0.5°空间分辨率日值降水数据,对比分析气候工程实施的3个不同时段,即2010~2099、2020~2069和2070~2099年,中国不同等级降雨雨量和雨日贡献率空间差异特征。结果表明：(1)在气候态上,3个时段两种情景下的中国不同等级降雨结构的气候态高低分异特征具有较好的一致性。气候工程并未改变中国降雨结构的空间高低分异特征。(2)在气候工程与非气候工程差异上,气候工程实施的不同阶段确实可以对中国不同区域的降雨结构产生影响,且不同时段差异性有所不同。(3)在气候工程实施前后差异上,气候工程实施中相比实施后促进了中雨、大雨和总暴雨事件,而抑制了小雨事件。在当前GeoMIP模式设定的当量下,气候工程实施会对中国降雨结构会产生不同层面的影响。     

LCCA and environmental LCA for highway pavement selection in Colorado

The roadway network in the USA earned a grade of D representing poor condition in the latest report card from the American Society of Civil Engineers. To maintain economic and environmental sustainability during the roadway network development and rehabilitation, it is critical to apply sustainable materials and intelligent design. A good estimation on project-level life-cycle costs and environmental impacts is one of the important steps in the highway investment decision-making process. This article examines the current life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) practice employed by the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) in their pavement investment decision-making process, and proposes a regional environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA) model to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with Colorado highway pavements. Both LCCA and LCA are performed for a highway reconstruction project with Portland cement concrete pavement (PCCP) and hot-mixed asphalt (HMA) alternatives. The LCCA is 7.4% in favour of HMA. Since the difference is less than 10%, it indicates equivalent designs. However, in the LCA, the GHG emission from PCCP is 26% less than the HMA over the 40-year analysis period. The vehicle fuel consumption will increase due to the deterioration of pavements. But the increased user cost is not included in the current LCCA employed by CDOT as well as user cost due to crashes and nonuser costs. The LCA can be an optional criterion for the selection of the preliminary pavement type.