Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions

Economic resilience is a major way to reduce losses from disasters. Its effectiveness would be further enhanced if it could be precisely defined and measured. This paper distinguishes static economic resilience—efficient allocation of existing resources—from dynamic economic resilience—speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction of the capital stock. Operational definitions are put forth that incorporate this important distinction. The consistency of the definitions is examined in relation to antecedents from several disciplines. The effectiveness of economic resilience is evaluated on the basis of recent empirical studies. In addition, its potential to be enhanced and eroded is analyzed in various contexts.     

Establishing public accountability,speaking truth to power and inducing political will for disaster risk reduction: ‘Ocho Rios + 25’

The problem is that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is still more a zone of political darkness than of light. Therefore, the purpose of our contribution to this theme issue is to illuminate at least some of that zone of political darkness and to suggest a more proactive, but for many career professionals a personally problematic, way forward for DRR. The career problematic derives from the fact that the way forward would involve moving from applauding the emergence of elected and/or appointed champions (from mayors to cabinet ministers to presidents/prime ministers) for action to raising the political costs of inaction by leaders not otherwise disposed. The essential element of this way forward would be greatly enhanced public accountability. We will draw preliminary accountability lessons from the Haiti earthquake catastrophe and the Chile earthquake disaster 2010 events towards the conclusion of this paper as we outline a possible future paradigm.     

The rise of risk and the decline of politics

This paper argues that the rise of risk and formal risk assessment has contributed to the demise of representative democratic politics by displacing public discourses about values with technical justifications for decision making. Furthermore, risk plays a central role in the displacement of governmental responsibility to private sector and NGO actors at the same time as facilitating government control over citizens—the Janus faces¹ of governance and governmentality. Arguing that the turn to public participation cannot be the panacea for the present situation, the paper concludes by calling for revitalisation of representative institutions, the development of real-time technology assessment and development of popular connoisseurship of science and technology.     

Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.     

西部生态环境与资源可持续利用的若干问题

本文在介绍西部生态环境现状的基础上,分析了其恶化的症结所在,并指出西部应增强生态意识,重视保护和改善生态环境,以确保资源的可持续利用和促进西部经济的可持续发展.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.     

The persian famine of 1870-1872: prices and politics

By whatever definitions one cares to classify food shortages and deaths resulting from lack of food, there can be little semantic difficulty in recognising a catastrophic famine in Persia (Iran) in the early 1870s. This paper briefly examines the famine in its natural, political and socio-economic context. Fluctuations in prices and in the supply of essential commodities responded primarily to weather conditions, but this response was exaggerated and in some instances triggered directly by actions in the political and economic sphere.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of natural hazard mortality in Nepal

The impacts of natural hazards are typically measured in terms of loss of human lives and economic damage, and recent studies demonstrate that deaths attributed to natural hazards have increased. Using the publicly available DesInventar database, we examined spatial and temporal patterns of natural hazard mortality from 1971 to 2011 at the district and village levels of Nepal and identified natural hazards that contributed most to mortality. Spatial clusters of mortality at the district and village levels were detected using local and global spatial autocorrelation measures (Moran's I). Landslides (41.91%) and floods (32.52%) accounted for approximately three quarters of natural hazard mortalities over the study period. A Global Moran's I test positively confirmed clustering at both the district (0.199, p?p?相似文献   

基于Ap/Vp的双薄壁高墩刚构桥抗震性能研究

为了研究地震频谱特性对柔性桥梁抗震性能的影响,以正弦波为例推导了地震动能量与A_p/V_p的关系,基于能力需求比提出了桥梁抗震性能评估方法及计算公式。以某典型高墩连续刚构桥为工程背景,采用地震动参数A_p=0.4g的22条正弦波和7条实际地震记录,对比研究了桥梁纵、横向抗震性能随A_p/V_p的变化规律。结果表明:在地震动参数A_p相同的情况下,桥梁关键截面抗震能力需求比在纵、横桥向均随A_p/V_p的增大而呈现增长的规律,最大增幅超过12.92倍(正弦波)和2.31倍(实际波);按正弦波得到能力需求比普遍大于实际波,且随A_p/V_p增大而增大的规律更明显。研究发现将地震动参数A_p作为单一的抗震设计指标会导致桥梁抗震性能离散性很大,A_p/V_p可作为柔性桥梁抗震设计的补充指标。     

On the amount of counterpart assistance to be provided after natural disasters: from the perspective of indirect economic loss assessment

China’s counterpart assistance policy is of vital importance in providing guidance for emergency management and post-disaster reconstruction. However, the amount of assistance that partner provinces should provide as well as the criteria that partners should abide by in offering counterpart assistance remain a main challenge. The goal of this research is to fill this gap by proposing a new framework consisting of an interregional input–output (IRIO) model and a resilience index. Subsequently, the indirect economic loss is obtained by utilizing the index system of provincial economic resilience assessments, with measures of indirect economic loss developed from the IRIO. Furthermore, to examine the internal validity and systematic error, the reliability of the adopted models, the calculation methods, and the index systems are investigated. To assess the external validity of the proposed measures and resilience index of the framework, data from the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake are applied for estimating parameter values of the framework, and a follow-up investigation was conducted for examining the fairness and enhanced effectiveness of the new counterpart assistance criteria. In summary, this paper attempts to present some new ideas about the analysis of economic motivations of mutual aid and the improvement of the counterpart assistance policy.     

海域地震动强度包络模型研究∗

人工模拟地震动是目前开展海洋工程结构抗震分析的主要地震输入分析。强度包络函数是人工模拟地震动的重要参数,决定了地震动的强度非平稳性特性,并对地震动持时起控制作用。目前的地震动强度包络模型均是基于陆域地震动记录统计分析得出,无法准确反应海域地震动的强度特性。因此,基于日本 K?Net 强震动观测台网的实测地震数据库,分析海域地震动在时域中强度分布特性;提出适用于海域地震动的三段式强度包络模型,回归得到震级 M、震中距 R 及关键参数上升段 t₁、强震平稳段 t_s、下降段衰减率 c（无量纲）的计算表达式;研究震级、震中距对海域地震动强度包络模型的影响规律,并探讨海域地震动与陆域地震动强度包络模型的异同。研究结果表明：海域地震动强度包络模型中关键参数上升段 t₁、强震平稳段 t_s、下降段衰减率 c 的取值范围分别为[13~52 s], [12~79 s],[0.037~0.173];震级对关键参数（t₁、t_s、c）的影响要大于震中距;与陆域地震动相比,海域地震动的强度包络模型的下降段衰减率 c 相差显著,且各关键参数的分布范围更大。     

宁夏电解铝彳业电力消费与经济指标关系分析

针对宁夏“十二五”期间实施的结构调整政策影响高耗能企业用电增速的问题,在对宁夏地区1998-2014年实际数据分析的基础上,基于Chow检验,定位宁夏电解铝行业电力消费与经济指标关系的结构突变时点,构造虚拟变量建立变结构协整分析模型分析和测算电力消费与经济指标关系变化。结果表明:本文所提出的变结构协整分析模型反映了宁夏地区实际电力经济关系的变化情况,进一步拓展可用于其他地区高耗能行业电力经济关系的量化分析中。     

The socioeconomic effects of a landslide in Western Washington

Abstract

Landslides can create permanently unstable sites that cannot be repaired or developed, and as a result, can cause severe economic and social consequences for families and communities. This study examines the economic and social effects of a landslide that struck Western Washington in February 1999. Two years after the landslide, property owners completed a confidential questionnaire. Property owners experienced significant personal financial losses and received little financial assistance to recover. Most (93%) did not receive any relief from their insurance policies, and 7% received only temporary rental assistance. Participants reported a variety of monetary and personal losses that were associated with emotional distress. They also reported a variety of gains and new perspectives on life. In this paper, we consider mechanisms to reduce the economic losses of landslides as well as implications and future research directions.     

Mapping the public first‐aid training landscape: uptake,knowledge, confidence and willingness to deliver first aid in disasters/emergencies—a scoping review

The above article from Disasters, published online on 24 June 2019 in Wiley Online Library ( http://wileyonlinelibrary.com ) has been withdrawn by agreement among the authors, the Journal editors and John Wiley & Sons Inc. on behalf of ODI. The withdrawal has been agreed because this is a duplicate of an article that has been published in Disasters Volume 44 Issue 1.     

Multi-stakeholder microgrids for resilience and sustainability

ABSTRACT

The electricity grid is susceptible to numerous threats, especially severe weather events that have the potential to cause large-scale power outages. This has resulted in an increased emphasis on resilience against these events. Microgrids, small standalone power grids that have the ability to function independently from the greater electricity grid, have significant potential to improve response to environmental and anthropogenic crises. The vast majority of extant microgrids are generally small in scale, and operated under a conventional model of single operator, owner, and user. We argue that the ultimate potential of this approach will be in the development of multi-stakeholder microgrids which can combine a diversity of renewable and conventional power resources to respond to environmental hazards. The addition of stakeholders allows for increased diversification of generation sources, economies of scale, and other increased operational benefits and opportunities. However, there are significant challenges that arise with the additional layer of stakeholders in terms of governance, cost, and technical operations that can cause the multi-stakeholder model to be more difficult to implement. We develop the case for multi-stakeholder microgrids as a response to environmental hazards, and outline the challenges and questions facing the development of this form of microgrid.     

近场地震下评估单层网壳响应的地震动强度参数分析

为了选取近场地震动作用下适于评估单层网壳结构响应的地震动强度参数,以3个矢跨比不同的单层球面网壳和5个矢跨比、长宽比不同的单层柱面网壳为模型,从相关性、有效性及充分性3个方面对多个地震动强度参数进行分析评价。结果表明,对于单层球面网壳结构,水平向的相关系数大于竖向的相关系数.加速度反应谱值S_a(T_1)和S_a(T_2)为近场地震动作用下适于评估单层球面网壳结构响应的地震动强度参数;对于单层柱面网壳结构,跨度方向的相关系数大于长度方向和竖向的相关系数,近场地震动作用下适于评估单层柱面网壳结构响应的地震动强度参数为S_a(T)、速度反应谱值S_v(T)和位移反应谱值S_d(T),当单层柱面网壳的长宽比和矢跨比较大时,T应取第一阶振型的自振周期T_1,当单层柱面网壳的长宽比和矢跨比较小时,T应取第二、三阶振型的自振周期T_2和T_3。     

Comparing proximity measures of exposure to geostatistical estimates in environmental justice research

Abstract

Recent hazard literature frequently refers to sustainability and resilience as the guiding principles behind effective hazard planning. Certainly, structurally organizing communities to minimize effects of disasters and to recover quickly by restoring socio-economic vitality are laudable goals. However, while anticipating such outcomes is relatively easy from a theoretical standpoint, practical implementation of comprehensive plans is much more elusive. Indeed, relationships between community sustainability/resilience and hazards are complex involving many social, economic, political and physical factors. A conceptual framework for analysis of sustainability and resilience, then, is described based on three theoretical models, a mitigation model, a recovery model, and a structural-cognitive model. This framework is examined using data from Florida, USA, where local context, social and political activities, and economic concerns present difficulties in application. The question remains, therefore, to what extent can communities truly develop sustainable and resilient characteristics?     

铁路灾害线路通过能力损失评估模型

针对目前铁路抗灾减灾的实际需要 ,阐述了铁路灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性 ,论证了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失是铁路灾害间接经济损失的主要部分 ,并提出了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失的评估模型     

Exploring the risks of ineffective water supply and sewage disposal: A case study of Mexico City

This study proposes a method to evaluate the effectiveness of water management in providing a safe water supply and adequate sewage discharge and treatment for residents of Mexico City. This method also assesses the vulnerability of the city and its capacity to face or cope with potential threats generated by insufficient water supply and sewage extraction. Indices for analysing these parameters were estimated and the spatial distribution of the groups most affected was identified. According to the results of the models used, Mexico City inhabitants are mainly exposed to risk because of economic limitations rather than ineffective water management. However, some practices implemented by city authorities are increasing the population's exposure to risk. Consequently, in the future it may be necessary to modify the way water is supplied and how sewage is transferred from the city to the sea.     

Successes and failures of compulsory risk mitigation: re‐evaluating the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool

The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) is one of the best practices of public–private partnerships in an emerging market designed to reduce economic losses from disasters. This paper reviews the application of this compulsory mechanism along with data relating to the performance of the scheme following recent earthquakes in Turkey. We also consider the current perceptions of Turkish society towards the TCIP and how they can be enhanced. Our conclusions aim to assist stakeholders in government, homeowners, insurance companies, media, banks and civil society to appreciate the value of the system and key actions necessary to improve it.