The European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment

Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) can be loosely defined as policy‐relevant, multidisciplinary research on environmental issues. Many, diverse activities in this broad field are ongoing, but the approaches lack the structure, standardization and quality control common in disciplinary research. IEA has three stages: “structuring the problem”, “analyzing the problem” and “communicating the findings and insights”. Each stage has its inherent difficulties, not least because problem definition and analysis are neither separable nor unambiguous nor unique. Difficulties are exacerbated in the first and third stages by the necessity for science and policy to work together. Difficulties are exacerbated in the second stage by the necessity of different scientific disciplines to cooperate. The European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment is an initiative to improve scientific quality and policy‐relevance of IEA, by organizing two series of workshops, one looking in detail at current and desired scientific practices, the other reviewing current and establishing further applications of IEA to environmental issues in Europe. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Relaxation algorithms to find Nash equilibria with economic applications

Recent theoretical studies have shown that a relaxation algorithm can be used to find noncooperative equilibria of synchronous infinite games with nonlinear payoff functions and coupled constraints. In this study, we introduce an improvement to the algorithm, such as the steepest-descent step-size control, for which the convergence of the algorithm is proved. The algorithm is then tested on several economic applications. In particular, a River Basin Pollution problem is considered where coupled environmental constraints are crucial for the relevant model definition. Numerical runs demonstrate fast convergence of the algorithm for a wide range of parameters. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Intergenerational equity and discounting

A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change, urban air problems and transport policy in the European Union

This paper surveys some recent studies on conventional air pollution and climate change in the transport sector in Europe. Fuel efficiency standards, car emission standards and transport pricing instruments are analysed from an economic perspective taking into account environmental and economic efficiency objectives. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

International equity in climate change policy

Equity discussions in climate change policy focus on mitigation. Climate change impacts, adaptation and decision making are also important. General equity principles can be related to specific proposals for equitable sharing of mitigation but no objective preference for any principle exists. Most promising are mixed approaches, that combine various equity principles in a process oriented setting. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An integrated assessment modeling framework for assessing primary and secondary impacts from carbon dioxide stabilization scenarios

As the nations of the world negotiate future controls on greenhouse gas emissions, a critical environmental policy issue becomes understanding the multiple environmental consequences of these controls. Here we describe an integrated assessment model for quantifying multiple environmental impacts of large-scale environmental initiatives and apply this model to climate change mitigation. Our analysis shows that reductions in global warming will be accompanied by reductions in ozone depletion, acid rain and mercury emissions, and desulfurization waste generation. We also conclude that the largest collateral benefits from reducing global climate change may be in the developing world. This result is critical since it is the developing nations who ultimately control the long-term success of any climate stabilization strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO₂ Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Waste management modeling by MARKAL model: A case study for Basilicata Region

Air pollution is one of the most pressing environmental problems which affects likewise urban, industrial and rural areas. Environmental planners, regulators and decision makers need reliable, scientifically based tools to find out strategies for controlling air pollution in a cost-effective way, taking into account the whole productive system. In this framework the basic elements of energy-environmental planning have to be extended to include also waste processing technologies amongst the usually considered pollution sources. Bottom-up optimizing models, based on linear programming techniques and customized for specific cases, represent a powerful tool in energy-environmental management. This paper focuses on the integrated modeling of material flows and energy system performed on a local scale case study (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy) using the linear programming model IEA-MARKAL. We have evaluated the feasibility of the model in representing the waste management system to estimate the environmental impact of the waste processing technologies in the context of the whole productive system. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to emphasize the connections between tariffs, waste disposal technologies assessment and atmospheric emissions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Transparency and Control in Engineering Integrated Assessment Models

Better software engineering such as archiving releases with version control, writing portable code, publishing documentation and results closely tied to the code improves integrated assessment models' transparency and control. A case study of four climate change policy analysis models found that source code and data was generally available, but for larger models licenses were more restrictive with respect to modification and redistribution. It is suggested that Free software licenses such as the GNU GPL would improve transparency and control. Moreover, opening the source allows opening the development process, a potentially important tool to improve collaboration, data sharing and models integration. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ecohydrological impact–assessment modeling: an example for terrestrial ecosystems in Noord-Holland, the Netherlands

In the Netherlands the increasing demand for ecohydrological models on a regional (provincial) scale has resulted in the development of an empirical statistical impact–assessment model for semi-natural terrestrial herbaceous ecosystems. This model, called ITORS, describes the relationship between plant species and site factors such as soil, groundwater and management. The model, developed for the region of Noord-Holland, is applied to support provincial policy on soil and water management. The empirical statistical approach required the collection of a large set of field data, describing the biotic and environmental variation of a variety of semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems in Noord-Holland. These data were used to calculate species response models with help of logistic regression, resulting in significant models for 130 out of 144 species. Significant species response models were incorporated in the computer program ITORS. With help of ITORS the effect of various management scenarios can be easily evaluated, which is demonstrated by an example. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Transient modeling of trickling filters for biological ammonia removal

A dynamic model for nitrifying trickling filters is developed, based on material balances in the biofilm and the bulk liquid. The model predicts the profile of ammonia as a function of the operating parameters (volumetric flow rate and feed ammonia concentration) and the biofilm thickness as a function of filter depth and time. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Exploring the use of computer models in participatory integrated assessment – experiences and recommendations for further steps

Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as a structured process of dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders, such that integrated insights are made available to decision makers (J. Rotmans, Enviromental Modelling and Assessment 3 (1998) 155). There is a growing recognition that the participation of stakeholders is a vital element of IA. However, only little is known about methodological requirements for such participatory IA and possible insights to be gained from these approaches. This paper summarizes some of the experiences gathered in the ULYSSES project, which aims at developing procedures that are able to bridge the gap between environmental science and democratic policy making for the issue of climate change. The discussion is based on a total of 52 IA focus groups with citizens, run in six European and one US city. In these groups, different computer models were used, ranging from complex and dynamic global models to simple accounting tools. The analysis in this paper focuses on the role of the computer models. The findings suggest that the computer models were successful at conveying to participants the temporal and spatial scale of climate change, the complexity of the system and the uncertainties in our understanding of it. However, most participants felt that the computer models were less instrumental for the exploration of policy options. Furthermore, both research teams and participants agreed that despite considerable efforts, most models were not sufficiently user-friendly and transparent for being accessed in an IA focus group. With that background, some methodological conclusions are drawn about the inclusion of the computer models in the deliberation process. Furthermore, some suggestions are made about how given models should be adapted and new ones developed in order to be helpful for participatory IA. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Regulating Water Quantity and Quality in Irrigated Agriculture: Learning by Investing under Asymmetric Information

An input-based incentive approach for controlling an agricultural non-point source pollution problem is developed. A regulatory agency designs a tax scheme and an investment policy to increase its informational base, in order to obtain the desirable water use and emissions for a set of agricultural producers whose individual water use and emissions cannot be observed without costly monitoring. The agency invests in order to increase observability of water use and emissions, and taxes the observed variables. Learning effects enhance the process of acquiring information about the individual producers' behavior. The optimal tax scheme and the cost minimizing monitoring program are determined. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Natural climate variability and climate change in the North-Atlantic European region; chance for surprise?

Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Greenhouse gas emission reductions through waste management and disposal planning

The Third Conference of the Parties of the UN-FCCC (CoP-3) held in Kyoto in 1997 defined a Protocol with level of reduction of the Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs) overall emissions for Italy of 6.5% with respect to 1990 emissions. A mathematical model was created in order to evaluate the range of GHGs reduction effects obtained by upgrading waste collection, treatment and disposal system to new Italian regulation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The consequences of alternative environmental management goals: A non-linear programming analysis of nuclear weapons legacy clean-up at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Prioritization of projects within the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Weapons Complex Clean-up Program, exemplified with data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is quite sensitive to overall goals. Non-linear programming analysis of three alternative goals - mortgage reduction, terminal-period risk minimization, and current-period risk minimization - shows substantial differences in waste treated, risk reduced, and cost over a ten-year period. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Estimating the background air concentration excluding the contribution of an individual source

This paper presents two simple methods for the estimation of the instantaneous background air pollution level in a study area around an emitting point source. The methods allow estimation of concentrations non-inclusive of the contribution of the local emitting source. Hourly records of several monitoring stations located around the point source and results of the diagnostic Lagrangian particle dispersion model LADISMO are used in the calculations. A hypothetical case study is used to demonstrate the application of the two methods. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Optimisation of reduction of global CO2 emission based on a simple model of the carbon cycle

A simple model has been designed to describe the interaction of climate and biosphere. Carbon dioxide, understood as a major emitted gas, leads to a change of global climate. Economic interpretation of the model is based on the maximisation of the global CO₂ cumulative emissions. The two most important profiles of emission have been obtained: optimal and multi-exponential suboptimal profiles, each displaying different characteristics. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.