灾害系统:灾害群、灾害链、灾害遭遇

根据灾害系统的结构与功能特征的复杂性,将灾害系统中的多灾种情形分成三大类:灾害群、灾害链以及灾害遭遇。灾害群是指灾害在空间上的群聚和时间上的群发,各致灾因子之间不存在成因上的联系性,可依据多灾种风险评估模型对其进行评价;灾害链则表现为类似多米诺骨牌的现象,各致灾因子之间具有成因上的联系性,其风险可通过转移概率风险评估模型进行评估;灾害遭遇表现为各致灾因子之间的相互碰头现象,其风险可通过组合概率风险模型进行评估。狭义上的多灾种仅指致灾因子在空间上群聚或群发。灾害群的致灾程度是各单一致灾因子的总和,对某一地区来讲,灾害群聚或群发,都会使区域总体致灾加重;灾害链与灾害遭遇的致灾强度大大超过其关联的各单一致灾因子的总和,其中灾害链的致灾强度具有累加效应,而灾害遭遇的致灾强度具有叠加效应。灾害累加与叠加都可明显放大致灾的程度,形成巨灾风险。     

菲律宾客轮海难揭秘

1987年12月20日,菲律宾发生海难,死亡4375人。比当年“泰坦尼克号”海难的人数还多2倍。震惊中外,成为当年世界头号新闻。菲律宾是个岛国,人们出行的主要交通工具是客轮。因此,每年圣诞节前后。该国都会出现海上客运高潮。该国海运条例规定：乘客既可以预先购票上船,也可以上船以后再购票,一般不限     

灾害地图与灾害研究

灾害地图，作为一种专题地图，是地图方法在灾害研究中运用的基础。本文就灾害地图的组成、分类、编制、应用等问题作了探讨。     

全球近期灾害录（2009．10．11—12．10）

菲律宾遭热带风暴袭击 2009年10月11日,受热带风暴“凯萨娜”和“芭玛”袭击,菲律宾多个省份发生太面积洪灾和山体滑坡,两周来已造成超过600人死亡。     

灾害系统视角下的灾害耦合效应探讨

灾害耦合效应是灾害风险科学领域关注的焦点议题，与复杂灾害事件具有密切的联系。该文首先从词源角度阐述了“耦合”的内涵，提出了灾害耦合效应的概念，对比了灾害耦合与灾害叠加的差异，阐述了灾害耦合效应的整体性、有序性、动态性和目的性特征。其次从灾害系统的角度出发，分析了灾害系统结构体系和功能体系及演化过程与灾害耦合效应的联系，提出灾害耦合效应具有灾害形成要素耦合和灾害演化过程耦合，并探讨了两种耦合内在的特征及两者互动作用。再次从复杂灾害事件角度出发，探究了灾害群、灾害链和灾害遭遇与灾害耦合效应的关系，提出灾害演化过程耦合与灾害演化网络视角下的灾害链过程具有一致性，灾害形成要素的耦合与广义的灾害遭遇具有一致性。最后该文提出了加强灾害耦合效应研究与实践的关键点。     

广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨

探讨了“广义灾害”提出的必要性,给出了它的定义。讨论了广义灾害,灾害、祸和灾害链的分类,共性和个性,以及它们在事物和人类发展过程中的作用,提出了广义灾害、灾害链的结构,破坏作用、直接损失量,放大作用和概念模型或数学模型,简略地讨论了防治灾害的指导原则和战略策略等问题。     

灾害损失及灾害等级的确定

将灾害损失划分为属性指标和经济损失，将经济损失划分为财产损失、救灾费用和效益损失，将每种经济损失划分为内部经济损失和外部经济损失，在属性指标中考虑了损失持续时间的影响，还对灾害等级的定量计算方法进行了改进和完善．     

灾害伦理文化对灾害管理制度的评价研究

灾害伦理文化通过对灾害涉及的伦理问题进行研究,能够对灾害管理制度的发展和完善起到促进作用.这一作用是通过灾害伦理文化具有的评价功能实现的.而这一评价功能主要是通过确立灾害管理制度的价值尺度、对于制度安排的具体评价和对于制度安排效果的评价等三方面实现的.     

灾害分类体系研究

灾害分类是灾害学研究的一项重要课题。我国目前尚无统一的灾害分类方法。本文通过对灾害总体性质的研究分析，提出灾型、灾类、灾种三级分类体系。     

深圳遭遇特大洪涝灾害

2005年5月19日以来,深圳地区由于连降暴雨,致使福田、南山两个区的部分低洼地遭受特大洪涝灾害。在当地政府和驻军的及时帮助下,灾区群众得以妥善安置,没有人员伤亡情况发生。5月20日,在深圳南山区同乐村联鹏小学,深圳边防第六、第七支队的战士们将     

Disaster mitigation and preparedness: the case of NGOs in the Philippines

The Philippines is very vulnerable to natural disasters because of its natural setting, as well as its socio-economic, political and environmental context--especially its widespread poverty. The Philippines has a well-established institutional and legal framework for disaster management, including built-in mechanisms for participation of the people and NGOs in decision-making and programme implementation. The nature and extent of collaboration with government in disaster preparedness and mitigation issues varies greatly according to their roots, either in past confrontation and political struggles or traditional charity activities. The growing NGO involvement in disaster management has been influenced by this history. Some agencies work well with local government and there is an increasing trend for collaborative work in disaster mitigation and preparedness. Some NGOs, however, retain critical positions. These organisations tend to engage more in advocacy and legal support for communities facing increased risk because of development projects and environmental destruction. Entry points into disaster mitigation and preparedness vary as well. Development-oriented agencies are drawn into these issues when the community members with whom they work face disaster. Relief organisations, too, realise the need for community mobilisation, and are thus drawn towards development roles.     

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation in the Philippines: Experience from Mt. Pinatubo

Considerable progress has been made in volcanic disaster mitigation in the Philippines during the last four decades, since the devastating Hibok-Hibok eruption in 1951 and the establishment of the Commission on Volcanology (COMVOL), the forerunner of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in 1952. The management of the Pinatubo Volcano eruption crisis of 1991-92 marks the highest point in the development of volcanic disaster mitigation in the country. State-of-the-art volcano monitoring techniques and instruments were applied; the eruption was accurately predicted; hazards zonation maps were prepared and disseminated a month before the violent explosions; an alert and warning system was designed and implemented; and the disaster response machinery was mobilized on time. The unprecedented magnitude and lingering nature of the hazards, however, and their widespread, long-term impacts have sorely tested the capability of the country's volcanic disaster mitigation systems. In particular, the lahar threat has triggered controversies and put decision makers in a dilemma of choosing between adaptive versus confrontational/control approaches. At least three strategies have been articulated and adopted in varying degrees and forms: (1) the establishment of a lahar monitoring-warning-evacuation system to deal with the lahar problem on an emergency basis; (2) relocation of settlements from the hazard zones; and (3) installation of engineering countermeasures to control/divert the lahar flows and protect settlements. A combination of the three appears to be the best, but the most effective and least costly mix remains to be determined.     

海洋石油灾难不可忽视

<正>2010年4月20日22时(北京时间21日11时),位于美国路易斯安那州威尼斯东南约82公里海面处的深水地平线钻井平台发生爆炸,继而引发大火,大约36小时后钻井平台沉入墨西哥湾。深水地平线是世界上最先进的钻井平台之一,造价约6亿—7亿美元。该钻井平台是韩国现代重工业公司造船厂于2001年建成,由总     

世界最大"天然动物园"

号称“世界屋脊”的青藏高原,历来披着一层神秘面纱为世人所瞩目。然而不少人还不知道,在这块谜一般的高原上还有一片更神奇的土地,这就是平均海拔5000米以上的羌塘高原无人区。这里空气稀薄,气候寒冷,猛兽出没,过去连勇敢的旅行家和探险者都望而生畏。     

日本的灾害管理

日本位于环太平洋地震带和火山活动带上,虽然只占地球陆地面积的0.25%,但其地震的发生次数和活火山的数量却非常高。另外,从地理、地形、气象等方面来看,还极易发生台风、暴雨、暴雪等灾害,因此日本是个多灾的国家。     

广东省台风灾害特点及减灾对策

根据《台风年鉴》等台风资料,分析了广东省台风灾害的特点,讨论了台风灾害对广东省经济,社会及生态环境的影响,并针对广东省台风灾害的特点提出了减轻台风灾害的对策。